The aftermath of the Gaza truce: possible scenarios

[link to english.alarabiya.net]

i thought this was an interesting read and a good opinion piece for a launching place for a discussion here.

"Possible scenarios
In evaluating the results of the Israeli operation against Gaza we note the following:

The resistance organizations were seeking to restore the balance of terror, through rockets that target key residential conglomerations. But Israeli hostilities succeeded in diminishing the arsenal of rockets, especially from Islamic Jihad, as many strategic warehouses were destroyed while 1200 rockets were fired against Israel out of an estimated 2000, in addition to assassinating key military leaders in Hamas and Jihad.

The resistance proved to be able to manufacture locally mid-term rockets, which abolishes the efforts of monitoring smuggling routes.
This operation will certainly lead to more American pressure on Egypt to border control and stop the smuggling of weapons.

But the truce lacks any tangible steps after the confidence-building measures, while giving Egypt the responsibility of following up its implementation.
And it is unlikely that tangible steps will be taken to achieve Palestinian reconciliation in spite of the call from Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal to adopt a national political program based on resistance, while the Palestinian Authority’s priority is to get an observer status at the United Nations.

But most comments from Israeli security circles didn’t look optimistic about the extent of the ceasefire, adding that Hamas will decide when to violate it.

And they see that their biggest achievements were the protection of the Iron Dome, assassinating Hamas military leader Ahmad Al-Jaabari, hitting 1400 targets and destroying government buildings in Gaza. They also succeeded in winning international support to legitimize their acts and Egypt’s commitment to stop arm smuggling and guarantee the agreement. Israel’s success was also in getting the Muslim Brotherhood government to be mediators, and Hamas’ pledge to stop targeting Israel.

On the flip side, the results were as follows: Hamas’ ability to target Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, Hamas’ ability to go on fighting in spite of Al-Jaabari assassination, Israel’s refraining from launching a land invasion, with Hamas claiming that it deterred Israel from making this move."