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GRANTHAM: Here Are The Basic Forces That Will Send Growth To Near-Zero For Decades

 
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11/25/2012 02:04 PM

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GRANTHAM: Here Are The Basic Forces That Will Send Growth To Near-Zero For Decades
[link to www.businessinsider.com]

"Someday, when the debt is repaid and housing is normal and Europe has settled down, most business people seem to expect a recovery back to America’s old 3.4% a year growth trend, or at least something close," he wrote. "They should not hold their breath.

"A declining growth trend is inevitable and permanent and is caused by some pretty basic forces."
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11/25/2012 02:26 PM
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Re: GRANTHAM: Here Are The Basic Forces That Will Send Growth To Near-Zero For Decades
Link:

" "A declining growth trend is inevitable and permanent and is caused by some pretty basic forces."

Those basic forces include unfavorable demographic trends, decelerating productivity growth, tightening resource constraints, and rising environmental costs."


Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]
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11/25/2012 02:47 PM
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Re: GRANTHAM: Here Are The Basic Forces That Will Send Growth To Near-Zero For Decades
What is needed in the US economy is a new set of eyes and ideas. I’m tired of this old stuff.

At the link is all guesstimate work:

For example, take the first basic force, “demographic trends” and we are shown several charts, with explanations which are not realistic.

Working age population growth and projection does not show even a little blip for the off-spring of immigrant labor settling in the country during the last decade. They’ve had lots of babies.

Annual hours worked per worker shows a continually declining number of hours. This can only happen if the other chart projections work out according to guesstimates.

Chart shows that “positive effect of women entering the workforce has leveled off” WTF?? This chart is actually laying claim to invalidate the unpaid labor of women who work at home rearing families.

Another chart titled “Rising Commodity Prices will Squeeze GDP for years” actually shows that US consummation of resources is leveling out to match GDP.