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NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 07:59 AM
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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
[link to www.newscientist.com]

Arctic thaw may be first in cascade of tipping points

...
These two tipping points – the Arctic sea ice and permafrost – are the first two in a network of points outlined recently by Lenton and Levermann (see diagram). The pair argue that periods of rapid ice loss in the Arctic change regional weather patterns, to warm Asia more quickly and speed up the thaw.
[link to www.newscientist.com]
"No climate model has ever induced the tipping of one by tipping another," cautions Levermann. But he says that could be a quirk of the models, which climate modellers build to study aspects of climate that don't involve tipping points. "We observe more violent changes in the past than our models are capable of simulating," agrees Ditlevsen. "That points to the idea of dominoes."...
In Lenton and Levermann's cascade, a critical point appears to be the shutdown of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. This vast current pumps water around all the Earth's oceans, and interacts with many of the other areas susceptible to tipping points, including the Greenland and Antarctic ice. The good news is that this tipping point could act as a safety valve, slowing the progress of the others...
Perhaps the worst news of all is that there may be no warning of impending flips. Lenton has developed tipping point forecasts that look for warning signs. Historical records and chaos theory applied to ecosystem models suggest that as a system nears a threshold, it will struggle to bounce back from small disturbances. So if a system is approaching a tipping point, its response to extreme events should become more sluggish. The trouble is that the one tipping point we have already passed, according to Lenton – melting of the Arctic sea ice – gave us no such warning signs. Ditlevsen is not surprised. He found that there was no warning before similar events during the last ice age either (Geophysical Research Letters, doi.org/fd7vkj). Both researchers say the behaviour of other unstable systems, like the Amazon rainforest, glaciers and monsoons, may be more predictable.
...
Trashing Siberia
A mere 1.5 °C of warming may be enough to start the widespread thaw of Siberia's vast permafrost (see main story). We are already committed to 1.1 °C. What are the consequences?
The greatest concern, says Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter in the UK, is the regional landscape. Buildings and infrastructure are often built on hard permafrost, and will start to subside. "Ice roads won't exist any more," he says.
The increasingly soggy permafrost will also threaten the pipelines that transport Russian gas to Europe. "The maintenance and upkeep of that infrastructure is going to cost a lot more," says Ted Schuur of the University of Florida in Gainesville.
A study published last year predicted that the Russian cities of Nadym, Yakutsk and Salekhard would be worst affected. The amount of weight the ground underneath could support could fall 20 per cent or more (Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, doi.org/kkz). The ecosystem will also change as plants move north.
The thawing permafrost will also release methane and carbon dioxide, which will warm the planet still further. Though Lenton says the effect will be small compared to humanity's emissions from burning fossil fuels.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
[link to arstechnica.com]

Understanding extreme weather in an era of climate change
Scientists try to ID climate signals in weather as public draws conclusions.

The US has clearly seen some pretty extreme weather events over the last year. These events have caused both billions of dollars in property damage and endless arguments over how much can be attributed to climate change. Even as scientists work on the problem of attribution, the public has often made up its mind on what's to blame.

To try to bring some sanity to the discussion, the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science hosted a session on US weather extremes. Although there were a variety of talks, three presentations nicely captured the challenges: one on the state of the US climate, another on a recent climate event, and a third on trying to convey all of this to the public.

Turning up the heat
The first speaker was Donald Wuebbles of the University of Illinois. He started out by saying that you can view the climate as a bell curve, with extreme heat and cold events occurring where it starts to flatten out to the left and right. In that view, changing the climate could do any of three things. The curve itself could shift, with hot events becoming more common and cold events becoming less frequent. You could also potentially flatten the curve, with the typical climate remaining roughly the same but the instances of extreme events increased. Or, he said, you could do both.
Depending on which aspect of the climate system you're looking at, you may get any one of these options....

Heubbles also mentioned a variety of events that have been specifically attributed to climate change, including the recent drought in Texas, which analysts have suggested was made anywhere between two and twenty times more likely by climate change. This fact served as a great bridge to the next speaker, John Nielsen-Gammon, a Texas state climatologist.

Running hot
Record high temperatures are becoming much more common, even as record lows are decreasing in frequency.
[link to www.c2es.org]
...
"Saying the drought was due to climate change is like saying the airplane crashed due to gravity," Nielsen-Gammon said.

<i would like add : same for cold:tounge:>

It's true, but it doesn't tell you much. So, his team used climate models to try to understand the causes of the drought...

Managing complexity
If Nielsen-Gammon's job was complicated by the mix of natural variation and climate-driven events, then Andrew Freedman has an even greater challenge: accurately conveying it to the public...

To try to get accurate information to the public, Climate Central is working with TV meteorologists, who already reach the public but don't always have the tools to handle the complexities well. And the emphasis is on getting them to ask better questions—instead of "did global warming cause this?", they should focus on questions that are more relevant and can be answered, like "how did it [climate change] influence the odds for or severity of this event?"...


<seems like Joe Bastardi too stubborn to understand such thingstounge>


...This certainly won't guarantee that we'll end up with a public that can easily grasp the complexities of climate. But it could help them to start recognizing that the complexities exist.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35363935


bump
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 08:04 AM
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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
"We observe more violent changes in the past than our models are capable of simulating," agrees Ditlevsen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35363935


doesn't that prove that the models are wrong?
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 09:04 AM
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"We observe more violent changes in the past than our models are capable of simulating," agrees Ditlevsen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35363935


doesn't that prove that the models are wrong?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22004273


no. it means only that they said : when we are entering to the "tipping points" field standart numerical models can produce large errors, as contained in these equations do not take into account the critical "transition point" (and can not be taken into account to determine, as etotrebuet too much processing power, and also taking into account too many poorly studied until interconnections). in other words we are able to calculate and understand clearly that the approach to the "point of no return", but it may come even sooner than we think.

meanwhile Mould Bay anomaly +25 C
[link to 193.7.160.230]
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 09:06 AM
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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
"We observe more violent changes in the past than our models are capable of simulating," agrees Ditlevsen.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35363935


doesn't that prove that the models are wrong?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 22004273


no. it means only that they said : when we are entering to the "tipping points" field standart numerical models can produce large errors, as contained in these equations do not take into account the critical "transition point" (and can not be taken into account to determine, as it needs too much processing power, and also taking into account too many poorly studied until interconnections). in other words we are able to calculate and understand clearly that the approach to the "point of no return", but it may come even sooner than we think.

meanwhile Mould Bay anomaly +25 C
[link to 193.7.160.230]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35363935


hiding
SkinnyChic

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03/01/2013 09:51 AM

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
bump
SkinnyChic
Luisport (OP)

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03/03/2013 02:29 PM

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
AccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather

Temperature Extremes: It is currently 113 degrees in Vioolsdrif, South Africa and -73 degrees in Summit Camp, Greenland.
Luisport (OP)

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03/04/2013 05:24 AM

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
Just released today. Climate change is real [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] Full report (pdf) Key facts: 1. The Australian summer over 2012 and 2013 has been defined by extreme weather events across much of the continent, including record-breaking heat, severe bushfires, extreme rainfall and damaging flooding. Extreme heatwaves and catastrophic bushfire conditions during the Angry Summer were made worse by climate change. 2. All weather, including extreme weather events is influenced by climate change. All extreme weather events are now occurring in a climate system that is warmer and moister than it was 50 years ago. This influences the nature, impact and intensity of extreme weather events. 3. Australia’s Angry Summer shows that climate change is already adversely affecting Australians. The significant impacts of extreme weather on people, property, communities and the environment highlight the serious consequences of failing to adequately address climate change. 4. It is highly likely that extreme hot weather will become even more frequent and severe in Australia and around the globe, over the coming decades. The decisions we make this decade will largely determine the severity of climate change and its influence on extreme events for our grandchildren. 5. It is critical that we are aware of the influence of climate change on many types of extreme weather so that communities, emergency services and governments prepare for the risk of increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather. [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au] [link to climatecommission.gov.au]
Anonymous Coward
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03/04/2013 06:28 AM
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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
But a global warming can indeed trigger a new ace age era...

So I don't get the VS part OP...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26335144


yup you got it. As the earth goes thru its warming period it produces climate chaos at first. drought in some places, more rain in others and extreme temp fluctuation. eventually comes an ice age
Luisport (OP)

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03/04/2013 06:30 AM

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
But a global warming can indeed trigger a new ace age era...

So I don't get the VS part OP...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 26335144


yup you got it. As the earth goes thru its warming period it produces climate chaos at first. drought in some places, more rain in others and extreme temp fluctuation. eventually comes an ice age
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 788508


but i agree with both of you
Luisport (OP)

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Ice World: Record snowfalls inundates cities across the globe

Posted on March 4, 2013by The Extinction Protocol

March 4, 2013 – EARTH – This is proving a freakish year for weather, but Japan is having an odder time of it than most. The country has had a record winter for snow, and northern Japan is currently coated by unprecedented volumes of the white stuff – more than five meters at higher altitudes, with houses turned into igloos and roads into snow tunnels. In the Hakkoda Mountains the depth of snow has been measured at 5.61 meters – a record for Japan. Even lower down, in the city of Aomori, snow is standing at almost 1.5 meters and bulldozers have to work round the clock. This has also been a record year for snow in parts of Russia – a couple of weeks ago snow piles of more than five meters caused gridlock in Moscow – and Switzerland, too, has been experiencing dramatic snowfalls, with depths of up to three meters. These snowfalls, especially those in northern Japan, are remarkable by any standards. But they still fall well short of the all-time record-breakers. Tamarack in California claims the record for the deepest snow ever recorded: 11.5 meters on 11 March 1911. That was clearly some year in the Sierra Nevada, as Tamarack also recorded the largest snowfall in a single month in the US: almost 10 meters. -Guardian

Heaped snow in Red Square, Moscow, 21 January 2013. Most of northern Russia was buried in heavy snowfalls this winter.

Texas blizzard breaks 120 year old record: The blizzard that hammered the nation’s midsection broke a 120-year-old record in Amarillo for one-day snowfall in February with 19.1 inches. The blizzard was accompanied by fierce winds in excess of 75 mph. National Weather Service meteorologist Krissy Scotten in Amarillo says the snowfall total Monday bested a record set Feb. 16, 1893, when 19 inches fell. -Abqjournal

Roads in India buried under 100 ft (30 m) of snow: Ahead of them stands a 100-foot-tall wall of snow and they are slowly cutting their way through the mass to connect this Himachal Pradesh hill resort to landlocked Lahaul Valley in the Himalayan slopes. They are the dedicated men of General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF), a wing of the Border Roads Organization, working to reopen for traffic the snow-marooned Rohtang Pass located at 3,978 meters in the Pir Panjal mountain range, 51 km from here. Snow-clearing work started March 1 and it will take the men two months to reopen the 115-km road stretch between Manali and Keylong towns, Col. Yogesh Nair, commander of the 38 Task Force of GREF here, told IANS. Rohtang Pass is the gateway to Keylong from Manali in Kullu district, but it remains off-limits from the rest of the country for over five months due to heavy snow deposits on the road. This time, Rohtang shut down in mid-December and since then, people of the Lahaul region have been holed up in their region. Nair said there was record snowfall in the region this season and the snow-clearing operation was a herculean task. “The road stretch near Rohtang Pass is under 100 to 120 feet of snow. Unusually high. It normally experiences 70 to 80 feet of snow. We will try to reopen the Manali-Keylong highway by April-end,” he said. Every year, after winter, GREF opens the Manali-Rohtang-Keylong highway by deploying more than 250 personnel and laborers. The highway is also strategically important as it further connects to the forward areas of Jammu and Kashmir’s Ladakh region along the borders with China and Pakistan. “Our men are working in Arctic-like conditions where chances of snowstorms and avalanches still loom large. Last year, our laborers were caught in a snowstorm but were evacuated safely,” he said. The effort of GREF working in snowy and harsh climatic conditions is commendable since a sudden drop in temperature, even in summer, can trigger winter-like conditions. Oxygen near the Rohtang Pass is minimal and high velocity winds blow every afternoon. GREF has provided special uniforms to workers which weigh around five kg while the weight of a pair of shoes is two kg. Anti-glare sunglasses and gloves are also part of their uniform. With the help of global positioning system, engineers locate the road beneath the hill of the snow. After a bulldozer clears off the major snow, labourers manually clear the remaining snow with shovels. Residents of two dozen small and scattered villages with a population of over 20,000 in the Lahaul valley are eagerly awaiting restoration of the road traffic. A government-run helicopter, which also operates once a week between district headquarters Keylong and Manali, is the only mode of transportation for them these days. “Since late last December, we have been cut off from the rest of the world. We are awaiting reopening of roads,” Mohan Bodh, a resident of Chokhang village in Lahaul, told IANS. –Daijiworld

Canada sees record February snowfall: Toronto broke a snowfall record for Feb. 27, according to Environment Canada. At Pearson International Airport, 12.4 centimeters of the heavy wet snow covered the ground, breaking the record of 7.1 centimeters set in 1967. The slush is still flooding some city streets. City officials are asking homeowners to stop shoveling the slushy snow onto the road as it’s blocking the catch basins. According to a report in the Toronto Sun, the city said the cost to clean up Wednesday’s slushy mess is around $2.5-million. -680News [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
Luisport (OP)

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03/05/2013 01:07 PM

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
AccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather

-73 degrees in Summit Camp, Greenland today -- marks the 3rd day in a row with -70 degree temps!
Luisport (OP)

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue

GFS 12z is off the color-scale cold in extended range (10-15 day) e.g. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
Luisport (OP)

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New record low temperature for Northern Hemisphere set in Russia's Siberia

Extreme Weather
February 24, 2013
By: Justin Berk

In 1933, the coldest temperature record was set at -90.4°F (-68°C). On February 19th that was apparently shattered in the mist of an extreme event in Oymyakon, Siberia with the reading of -96.1°F (-71.2°C). Wow! [link to www.examiner.com]
whiteangel

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03/07/2013 09:33 AM

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Now that is crazy cold!!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Luisport (OP)

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Re: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
Global temperatures hit 4000-year high, rate of increase fastest in 11,000 years

Posted on March 9, 2013by The Extinction Protocol

March 9, 2013 – CLIMATE - Greenhouse gases and thus temperatures are skyrocketing and will most likely reach epic proportions by the year 2100, scientists at Oregon State University and Harvard University have found. Funded by the National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimate Program, and published in the March 8 issue of the journal Science, the study covers 11,300 years and finds temperatures higher than they have been over 70 to 80 percent of that time, OSU said in a statement on March 7. A team headed by Shaun Marcott, a postdoctoral researcher in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Studies, reached further back than most other studies, which he said usually don’t go beyond 2,000 years ago, to give the current climate change issues some context. They studied data from 73 sites around the world, to tell Earth’s temperature history back to the end of the last Ice Age. The current age, called the Holocene, began when the great ice sheets of northern Turtle Island and Europe receded. What they found may well heat up the climate change debate. First, Earth cooled about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit for most of the past 5,000 years, but warmed back up by the same amount over just the past 100 years, the researchers said. And the bigger the land masses and the larger the populations, the warmer it got—as in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from climate change models expect the temperatures to increase another 2.0 to 11.5 degrees by the end of the century, the OSU statement said, “significantly greater than at any time during the past 11,300 years,” said Peter Clark, an OSU paleoclimatologist and co-author on the Science article, in the statement. “We already knew that on a global scale, Earth is warmer today than it was over much of the past 2,000 years,” Marcott said in an OSU statement. “Now we know that it is warmer than most of the past 11,300 years. This is of particular interest because the Holocene spans the entire period of human civilization.” Moreover it’s an anomaly because of the speed with which it is happening, said Candace Major, the program program in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Ocean Sciences, which funded the research along with NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. Breaching the Holocene’s temperatures would be a first, the scientists said. Although 2000–2009 was one of the warmest since the U.S. started keeping records, the temperatures have been lower than the age’s overall. But no more. “The last century stands out as the anomaly in this record of global temperature since the end of the last ice age,” said Majo in OSU’s statement. “This research shows that we’ve experienced almost the same range of temperature change since the beginning of the industrial revolution as over the previous 11,000 years of Earth history—but this change happened a lot more quickly.” –Indian Country [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
Anonymous Coward
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Global temperatures hit 4000-year high, rate of increase fastest in 11,000 years

Posted on March 9, 2013by The Extinction Protocol

March 9, 2013 – CLIMATE - Greenhouse gases and thus temperatures are skyrocketing and will most likely reach epic proportions by the year 2100, scientists at Oregon State University and Harvard University have found. Funded by the National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimate Program, and published in the March 8 issue of the journal Science, the study covers 11,300 years and finds temperatures higher than they have been over 70 to 80 percent of that time, OSU said in a statement on March 7. A team headed by Shaun Marcott, a postdoctoral researcher in OSU’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Studies, reached further back than most other studies, which he said usually don’t go beyond 2,000 years ago, to give the current climate change issues some context. They studied data from 73 sites around the world, to tell Earth’s temperature history back to the end of the last Ice Age. The current age, called the Holocene, began when the great ice sheets of northern Turtle Island and Europe receded. What they found may well heat up the climate change debate. First, Earth cooled about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit for most of the past 5,000 years, but warmed back up by the same amount over just the past 100 years, the researchers said. And the bigger the land masses and the larger the populations, the warmer it got—as in the Northern Hemisphere. Predictions from climate change models expect the temperatures to increase another 2.0 to 11.5 degrees by the end of the century, the OSU statement said, “significantly greater than at any time during the past 11,300 years,” said Peter Clark, an OSU paleoclimatologist and co-author on the Science article, in the statement. “We already knew that on a global scale, Earth is warmer today than it was over much of the past 2,000 years,” Marcott said in an OSU statement. “Now we know that it is warmer than most of the past 11,300 years. This is of particular interest because the Holocene spans the entire period of human civilization.” Moreover it’s an anomaly because of the speed with which it is happening, said Candace Major, the program program in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Ocean Sciences, which funded the research along with NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. Breaching the Holocene’s temperatures would be a first, the scientists said. Although 2000–2009 was one of the warmest since the U.S. started keeping records, the temperatures have been lower than the age’s overall. But no more. “The last century stands out as the anomaly in this record of global temperature since the end of the last ice age,” said Majo in OSU’s statement. “This research shows that we’ve experienced almost the same range of temperature change since the beginning of the industrial revolution as over the previous 11,000 years of Earth history—but this change happened a lot more quickly.” –Indian Country [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


bumpbumpbump
Anonymous Coward
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03/13/2013 09:37 AM
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[link to onlinelibrary.wiley.com]
Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather
James A. Screen1,2,*, Ian Simmonds1
Article first published online: 13 MAR 2013
Abstract
[1] This study examines observed changes (1979–2011) in atmospheric planetary-wave amplitude over northern mid-latitudes, which have been proposed as a possible mechanism linking Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather extremes. We use two distinct but equally-valid definitions of planetary-wave amplitude, termed meridional amplitude, a measure of north-south meandering, and zonal amplitude, a measure of the intensity of atmospheric ridges and troughs at 45°N. Statistically significant changes in either metric are limited to few seasons, wavelengths, and longitudinal sectors. However in summer, we identify significant increases in meridional amplitude over Europe, but significant decreases in zonal amplitude hemispherically, and also individually over Europe and Asia. Therefore, we argue that possible connections between Arctic amplification and planetary waves, and implications of these, are sensitive to how waves are conceptualized. The contrasting meridional and zonal amplitude trends have different and complex possible implications for midlatitude weather, and we encourage further work to better understand these.
Luisport (OP)

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AccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather45 min
Yesterday's snow pushed Pittsburgh, Pa. over their average snowfall total. This winter they have 50.5 inches. Normal is 38.3.
Anonymous Coward
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03/19/2013 02:53 PM
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AccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather45 min
Yesterday's snow pushed Pittsburgh, Pa. over their average snowfall total. This winter they have 50.5 inches. Normal is 38.3.
 Quoting: Luisport


saw in news that in Moscow this winter about 300 mm snow insteed normal 150 )
Luisport (OP)

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A dramatic greening of the Arctic over the past 30 years

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:30 PM GMT em 18 de Março de 2013

A remarkable transformation in the vegetation of the Arctic has occurred over the past 30 years, according to a study of satellite data published on March 10, 2013, in Nature Climate Change. The authors found that Arctic vegetation growth and temperatures in 2011 resembled what occurred 250 - 430 miles farther to the south back in 1982. That's the approximate distance in latitude between San Francisco and San Diego, or Washington D.C. and Atlanta. More greening occurred in Eurasia than North America, and the Arctic's new greenness is visible on the ground as an increasing abundance of tall shrubs and trees. Large patches of vigorously productive vegetation now span a third of the northern landscape, an area about equal to the contiguous United States. "Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more," said co-author Dr. Ranga Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth and Environment, in a NASA press release. "In the north's Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems." The changes in the Arctic's vegetation are being driven by human-caused global warming, which is occurring in the Arctic at more than double the rate of the rest of the planet. This so-called "Arctic amplification" is due, in part, to the increased melting of ice and snow near the pole. When ice and snow melt, they uncover darker surfaces underneath, which absorb more sunlight and increase Arctic temperatures in a vicious cycle which melts even more ice and snow. Using 17 climate models, the researchers predicted that a continuation of warming in the Arctic in coming decades could lead to over a 1300 mile latitudinal shift in Arctic vegetation zones by the year 2100, compared to the period 1951 - 1980. That's a distance greater than the north-south extent of the contiguous United States. However, more frequent forest fires, increased pest outbreaks, and summertime droughts due to a warming climate might slow down Arctic plant growth.


Figure 1. Of the 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers) of northern vegetated lands, 34 to 41 percent showed increases in plant growth (green and blue), 3 to 5 percent showed decreases in plant growth (orange and red), and 51 to 62 percent showed no changes (yellow) over the past 30 years. Satellite data in this visualization are from AVHRR and MODIS. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.


Figure 2. Trees take hold as permafrost thaws near the Altai Mountains in Russia. Credit: Terry Callaghan, EU-Interact/Sergey Kirpotin, Tomsk State University.

Commentary
One often hears complaints that global warming may be greatly overestimated, due to many temperature sensors being located in increasingly urbanized areas where local "urban heat island" effects are not being properly considered. If this were true (and it isn't), then we would not expect to see "nature's thermometers"--plants and animals--change their behavior and ranges much. But plants and animals are responding in major ways to the warming climate, and the greening of the Arctic is merely one more example of "nature's thermometers" telling us that the planet is warming significantly. Some other examples:

Fall is falling back: During 1982 to 1999, the end of the growing season was delayed by 4.3 days in the Northern Hemisphere. During 2000 to 2008, the end of the growing season was further delayed by an additional 2.3 days. In the U.S., fall now occurs ten days later than it did 30 years ago.

Spring is springing forward: Spring events, like bird and butterfly migrations, flower blooming times, and frog mating, have been advancing by about three days per decade over the past 30 years.

Animals are changing migration patterns: New species have colonized previously ‘cool’ regions, including sea anemones in Monterey Bay, and lichens and butterflies in Europe. Over the past 50 years, maximum range shifts vary from 200 km (butterflies) to 1,000 km (marine copepods).

Related blog post: New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate

Dr. Myneni's petition to protect Earth from climate change
Professor Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth & Environment, co-author of the greening Arctic study, has developed a simple one-sentence petition that he hopes one billion people will sign by Earth Day, 2014:

Dear Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon,

We, the People of the Earth, request You to act judiciously and expeditiously to protect the Earth from anthropogenic climate change.

Respectfully,
People of the Earth

The petition, which I have signed, is at: [link to yourclimatechange.org (secure)] and was recently featured by Discovery News.

Jeff Masters [link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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Speaking of trees...

World’s oldest trees dying due to climate change: study

By Agence France-Presse

Scientists Friday warned of an alarming increase in the death rates of the largest living organisms on the planet, the giant, old trees that harbour and sustain countless birds and wildlife.

Research by universities in Australia and the United States, published in Science, said ecosystems worldwide were in danger of losing forever their largest and oldest trees unless there were policy changes to better protect them.

“It’s a worldwide problem and appears to be happening in most types of forest,” said David Lindenmayer from the Australian National University, the lead author of a study into the problem.

“Just as large-bodied animals such as elephants, tigers, and cetaceans have declined drastically in many parts of the world, a growing body of evidence suggests that large old trees could be equally imperilled.”

Lindenmayer, along with colleagues from the James Cook University in Australia and Washington University in America, undertook their study after examining Swedish forestry records going back to the 1860s.

They found alarming losses of big trees, ranging from 100 to 300 years old, at all latitudes in Europe, North America, Africa, Asia, South America, Latin America and Australia.

The trees at risk included mountain ash in Australia, pine trees in America, California redwoods, and baobabs in Tanzania.

The study showed that trees were not only dying en masse in forest fires, but were also perishing at 10 times the normal rate in non-fire years.

The study said it appeared to be down to a combination of rapid climate change causing drought and high temperatures, as well as rampant logging and agricultural land clearing.

“It is a very, very disturbing trend,” said Bill Laurance of James Cook University.

“We are talking about the loss of the biggest living organisms on the planet, of the largest flowering plants on the planet, of organisms that play a key role in regulating and enriching our world.”

Large old trees play critical ecological roles, providing nesting or sheltering cavities for up to 30 percent of all birds and animals in some ecosystems.

They also store huge amounts of carbon, recycle soil nutrients, create rich patches for other life to thrive in, and influence the flow of water within landscapes.

“Big trees supply abundant food for numerous animals in the form of fruits, flowers, foliage and nectar,” said Laurance.

“Their hollows offer nests and shelter for birds and animals… and their loss could mean extinction for such creatures.”

The scientists said policies and management practices must be put in place that intentionally grow such trees and reduce their mortality rates.

“Targeted research is urgently needed to better understand the key threats to their existence and to devise strategies to counter them,” they added.

“Without such initiatives, these iconic organisms and the many species dependent on them could be greatly diminished or lost altogether.” [link to www.rawstory.com]
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 07:00 AM

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Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue13 h
That recent paper conclusion: "The potential remote responses to Arctic sea ice change are currently hard to confirm and remain uncertain."

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue13 h
But for summer Arctic sea-ice contributions to March weather -- I'd put that in "weak if any confidence" category [link to journals.ametsoc.org] …

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue13 h
Here's a really good Climate Central explanation of what I Tweeted over past few days on March weather by @afreedma [link to www.climatecentral.org] …
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 10:20 AM

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Where's spring? 2nd most extreme March jet stream pattern on record extends winter

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:15 PM GMT em 20 de Março de 2013

Punxatawney Phil got it way wrong. Pennsylvania's famous prognosticating rodent predicted just three more weeks of winter back on February 2. It's the first day of spring, but winter remains firmly entrenched over the eastern half of the U.S., where temperatures of 5 - 25°F below average have been the rule all week. The culprit is the jet stream, which has taken on an unusually contorted shape that is allowing cold air to spill down over the Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, but bringing near-record warmth to portions of Greenland. One measure of how contorted the jet stream has become is by measuring the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. There are two indices used to do this--one called the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which treats the flow over the entire Northern Hemisphere, and another called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is more focused on the North Atlantic. The two are closely related about 90% of the time. When these indices are strongly negative, the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is low. This results in a weaker jet stream, allowing it to take large, meandering loops, letting cold air to spill far to the south from the Arctic into the mid-latitudes. The AO index hit -5.2 today (March 20). This is the second most extreme March value of the index since record keeping began in 1948; only an AO value of -6.3 in March 1970 was more extreme. We've had some wildly variable jet stream patterns in recent years in the Northern Hemisphere. Just last year, we had the opposite extreme in March, when our ridiculous "Summer in March" heat wave brought a week of temperatures in the 80s to the Midwest U.S. The first day of spring today in Chicago, IL is expected to have a high temperature of just 25°F--a 60 degree difference from last year's high of 85°F on March 20!


Figure 1. The jet stream is taking a large dip to the south over the Eastern U.S., allowing cold air to spill southwards and bring winter-like conditions.

Unusual winter jet stream patterns tied to Arctic sea ice loss
Unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, according to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss". They found a mathematical relationship between wintertime Arctic sea ice loss and the increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia, typical of what one sees during a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the mid-latitudes. [link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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03/20/2013 11:08 AM

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They recalibrate the scary as hell Greenland melting page the other day..

An early spring re-calibration for melt detection
March 18, 2013

The algorithm for the Greenland Ice Sheet Today daily melt extent has been revised to account for unusually warm winter snow layers and residual meltwater deep in the snow. Meltwater from last summer’s intense melt season did not completely re-freeze through at least mid December. The adjusted algorithm shows greatly reduced melt extent for early 2013. This much lower extent is more consistent with available weather and climate records. [link to nsidc.org]
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03/20/2013 12:01 PM

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NWS Boston&#8207;@NWSBoston7 min
This seasons hIghest snow fall totals for S NE COOP climate sites, Staffordville CT at 97.4, Ashburnham and Worthington MA at 96.8 and 78.6
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03/20/2013 12:01 PM

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Eric Fisher&#8207;@EricFisherTWC9 min
What a flip-flop! #Chicago MT: @Skilling March's 1st 19 days running 20.2-deg colder than the same period a year ago!
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03/20/2013 01:32 PM

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Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue48 min
5-day ECMWF 500 mb height anomaly = textbook negative AO [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue1 h
Compared to last 8-runs, GFS sticking with more negative AO index. [link to twitter.com (secure)]

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue2 h
GFS keeps delaying the destruction of the block -- transition away from -NAO. My forecast bias chart handy to show. [link to twitter.com (secure)]
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03/21/2013 06:47 AM
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[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
The strongest recorded tornado to hit a southern Chinese city left at least nine people dead and 272 injured, 11 of them in critical condition, reports said on Thursday. The tornado brought winds gusting at up to 177 kilometres per hour and torrential rain and hail to Dongguan and nearby areas of Guangdong province late Wednesday, state media said. It was the strongest tornado to hit Dongguan since meteorological records began, the official Xinhua news agency quoted Deng Haoquan, a local government spokesman, as saying. By Thursday morning, authorities had recorded nine deaths and 158 people treated in hospital, including 11 in critical condition, Deng said. The semi-official China News Service published online photographs of several prefabricated buildings that had collapsed or lost their roofs. Other photographs showed local residents holding walnut-sized hailstones, and showed holes where hailstones had penetrated some roofs, fallen trees and signposts, and an overturned car. Nearby areas of Hunan and Jiangsu provinces were also hit by hailstorms on Wednesday, reports said. At least three people died and more than 50 were injured in Hunan's Daoxian county, county government spokesman Zhou Jingzhong was quoted as saying.
Anonymous Coward
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03/21/2013 06:53 AM
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The north will freeze, the south will burn, and the heart (center east/west) of the earth will be shaved by a giant meteor/planet.....j/k

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