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Message Subject NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
Poster Handle Luisport
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The long-term trends point to the interesting possibility of a collapse of the polar vortex, perhaps in a very "explosive".

Analyzing the temperature anomalies to the surface of the sea, and at some points mainland, we can get a sense of the overall pattern that has preponderado over the past few weeks:

According to the letter today:

This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the image in its original size: 1174x768 and 224KB.


The red
Blue-B
Purple-Lock

We have been observing a growing trend of locks mixed in Asia, and locks on anticyclonic regions of the NE Atlantic / Canada / Greenland.

In the Pacific the strengthening of positive temperature anomalies in Ecuador teem strengthened quite a blocking anticyclone near the antimeridiano of Greewich, and this has resulted in an overall pattern of cold air to accumulate in the tracks north America, extending from Alaska to regões W American as a strengthening of the Siberian AT, with negative anomalies in good portions of Asia.

On the other hand there has been an accumulation of energy in the central Pacific and the Atlantic Central and NE.

Blocking extensive in Asia should, according to the GFS result in a gradual distortion of the polar vortex:



This is because of the movement disorganized (Jet to "jumps" in the Troposphere) generates friction with the height of the vortex circulation, which heats and distorts the movement in time ... the air is thin as a small input of energy by friction can heat the air mass at several tens of degrees in a short time.


It happens that this warming on Asia tends to vortice roper in the region, promoting a more stable atmosphere, it cools more power and strengthening the AT Siberian.

The asia will freeze in the coming weeks so ...

On the other hand if the Pacific continues to warm, and circulation hemieferica vai pushing cold air from Siberia to the Pacific ... there should be an intensification of cyclogenesis in Japan, which promote a chain reaction to be locking in Paficico, and to be more warming Stratospheric progressing on the Pacific.

Well ... this will destabilize the polar vortex and may be that atinga a limit under which it start to disintegrate ...

The current standard promotes a distribution of such Thermal anomalies which is very favorable for an episode of collapse and vortice negativization extreme AO, sometime in January.

If this happens there should be a large destabilization of the Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, creating a very complex situation but possibly favorable to the occurrence of a period of time moved more about our range Subtropical.

This sketch shows the tendency that can develop after rupture of VP:

This image has been resized. Click this bar to view the image in its original size: 1174x768 and 225KB.


But it's only a sketch, because in essence these events lead to unpredictable situations ... this letter shows what tend to be more expressive when it comes to default based on the distribution of the regions where it has manifested a greater accumulation of energy or cold ... the border points usually give us an idea of the type of flows and synoptic type that tends is easier to develop a region.


Summarizing the thing ... I think qie January may be one month very active, with lots of precipitation and below average temperatures tend.
[link to www.meteopt.com]
 
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