The tides are predicted simply by the orbit of the Moon. They have been in sync with the moon for thousands of years (recorded history, likely far longer) and fit exactly with what is expected based on the moon's orbit and mass. There is no better theory about what causes the tides.

the moon has NOT been observed in our atmosphere. EVERY video supposedly showing it in front of the clouds involves thin clouds that it easily shines through. They also ignore that if it were that close then it would not be in the right place for all observers (most would not be able to see it). They ignore the fact that ANYONE can find the distance to the Moon with basic geometry and get their own answer that is very similar to where it should be. They ignore the fact that HAM radio enthusiasts bounce radio signals off the Moon every day which would not work for a nearby projection.