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EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC

 
Luisport

User ID: 28716446
Portugal
11/29/2012 01:16 PM

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EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 29 Nov 2012 06:00 to Fri 30 Nov 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Nov 2012 06:41
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for the southern Balkans and the Aegean Sea region mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

At the edge of low geopotenial across northern Europe, an intense Mediterranean trough moves north-eastward into eastern Europe today. A very strong jet streak will travel across the Balkans ahead of this trough and a tongue of warm air advects into the Black Sea region. In the wake of the jet streak, colder air masses will be present over most of the Mediterranean.

DISCUSSION

Southern Balkans, Greece, Aegean Sea region

While the main trough travels north-eastward into eastern Europe, the region is affected by a south-westerly flow. A cold front will move across the southern Balkans/Greece today and becomes quasi-stationary. Ahead of this cold front, a tongue of warm air advects northward. Especially near the Mediterranean Sea, this air mass is associated with rich low-level moisture. Additionally, latest models indicate that rather steep lapse rates are present, leading to CAPE. Strong forcing is expeced along the cold front and convective activity will go on. Backbuilding MCS and training storms are forecast to be capable of producing excessive rain as the main theat. Additionally, strong low-level vertical wind shear near the coasts may allow for embedded mesocyclones, and a tornado or hail event is not ruled out.


[link to www.estofex.org]

Last Edited by Luisport on 12/29/2012 06:21 AM
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 01:41 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
[link to www.ecmwf.int]
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 01:42 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
[link to www.ecmwf.int]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
11/29/2012 05:50 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 30 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 01 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Nov 2012 20:27
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Sea and SE Greece mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado event.

Level 1 areas were issued for parts of the E-Adriatic Sea (heavy rain) and NE Tyrrhenian Sea (heavy rain and an isolated waterspout risk).

SYNOPSIS

A broad branch of the polar vortex covers most of Europe with cold air advecting far south. Disturbances along its fringes mark the foci for thunderstorm development. Isolated lightning activity is forecast over the North Sea beneath very cold mid-levels.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea and adjacent areas ...

Brisk SW-erly flow affects the area of interest with DLS in excess of 20 m/s and enhanced LL shear mainly along the coasts. GFS evolves a weak wave/low south of Greece during the night, which moves to the northeast and results in enhanced backing of the LL wind field (increasing directional shear). Rich BL moisture and drier / cooler air atop assist in 500-1000, locally up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and therefore long-lived and deep convection is likely.
Well organized multicells race from SW to NE and produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and heavy rain. Given improving LL shear, an isolated tornado event is possible, too. Isolated excessive rainfall amounts can't be ruled out mainly along the coasts of the NE/E Aegean Sea with repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms.

... C-Mediterranean ...

Placed beneath cold mid-levels, isolated to scattered CI is forecast. The main activity is sub-severe, however, a few level 1 areas were issued to cover a heavy rainfall risk along the coasts and a waterspout risk north of the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Scattered thunderstorm development also occurs west of the Iberian Peninsula, but despite isolated marginal hail, nothing severe is expected.

[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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11/29/2012 05:51 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
[link to www.ecmwf.int]
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 28770103
Portugal
11/30/2012 02:50 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 30 Nov 2012 06:00 to Sat 01 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Nov 2012 20:27
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the Aegean Sea and SE Greece mainly for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, heavy rain and an isolated tornado event.

Level 1 areas were issued for parts of the E-Adriatic Sea (heavy rain) and NE Tyrrhenian Sea (heavy rain and an isolated waterspout risk).

SYNOPSIS

A broad branch of the polar vortex covers most of Europe with cold air advecting far south. Disturbances along its fringes mark the foci for thunderstorm development. Isolated lightning activity is forecast over the North Sea beneath very cold mid-levels.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea and adjacent areas ...

Brisk SW-erly flow affects the area of interest with DLS in excess of 20 m/s and enhanced LL shear mainly along the coasts. GFS evolves a weak wave/low south of Greece during the night, which moves to the northeast and results in enhanced backing of the LL wind field (increasing directional shear). Rich BL moisture and drier / cooler air atop assist in 500-1000, locally up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and therefore long-lived and deep convection is likely.
Well organized multicells race from SW to NE and produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and heavy rain. Given improving LL shear, an isolated tornado event is possible, too. Isolated excessive rainfall amounts can't be ruled out mainly along the coasts of the NE/E Aegean Sea with repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms.

... C-Mediterranean ...

Placed beneath cold mid-levels, isolated to scattered CI is forecast. The main activity is sub-severe, however, a few level 1 areas were issued to cover a heavy rainfall risk along the coasts and a waterspout risk north of the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Scattered thunderstorm development also occurs west of the Iberian Peninsula, but despite isolated marginal hail, nothing severe is expected.

[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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12/01/2012 02:52 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 01 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 02 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 30 Nov 2012 20:49
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the E-Aegean Sea and W/NW Turkey mainly for heavy rain, isolated large hail, strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS

The big trough is comfortable over Europe and brings cold and unsettled conditions to many parts. Weak ridging extends into parts of extreme NW Europe wich does not mean that stable conditions exist as fronts move in from the west.

DISCUSSION

... Aegean Sea and W-Turkey ...

Weak surface cold front dissolves over the Aegean Sea beneath strong southwesterlies, which keep the DLS enhanced (15-20 m/s). Prefrontal moist and warm air mass surges towards the W-coast of Turkey and keeps MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range over the E-Aegean Sea. Therefore, repeatedly onshore moving showers and thunderstorms are forecast, which might produce heavy rain, although no real focus is seen for training activity. Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts accompany strongest storms. Also, an isolated tornado event is possible mainly in the level 1 area, where LL shear and some onshore CAPE overlap.

For the rest of the lightning areas in the Mediterranean, E-Atlantic and the North Sea, nothing severe is anticipated.

[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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12/01/2012 03:02 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Tornado in Greece on Saturday, 01 December, 2012 at 04:48 (04:48 AM) UTC.

Description
Torrential rain has flooded roads in a lot of Greek regions. Three tornadoes hit the island of Zakynthos. Residential buildings and shops are damaged. A passenger train derailed due to the floods in Xanthi, Northern Greece. None of the passengers was injured in the incident. Heavy rain flooded houses and shops in the vicinity of Athens. A tornado caused damages in the region of Katakolon and the roads in Ancient Olympia are flooded.


[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
Anonymous Coward
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Croatia
12/01/2012 03:08 PM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
bump

Thanks OP uhoh
Luisport (OP)

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12/01/2012 03:10 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
bump

Thanks OP uhoh
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28855958


hf Stofex is the best meteo alert to europe!
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 28901978
12/02/2012 05:06 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Dec 2012 06:00 to Mon 03 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Dec 2012 07:46
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for western Greece, Aegean Sea and western Turkey mainly for tornadoes and excessive convective precipitation, as well as large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the Ionean and Aegean Sea areas including parts of Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey, mainly for excessive convective precipitation, chance of tornadoes and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area is dominating the central Mediterranean area. The maritime arctic airmass is conquering more of Europe from the northwest with only Italy and Balkan to go. The main cold front of interested is the one that separates the cool unstable Italian airmass from the warm unstable eastern Mediterranean airmass. A large upper trough shifts eastwards and sends the jetstream over the warm sector, where CAPE builds up to some 500 J/kg.

DISCUSSION

...Ionean/Aegean Sea regions...

An environment very favorable for supercell storms is advecting into Greece and Turkey. It is characterized by 30 m/s deep layer shear over several hundred J/kg CAPE, with curved hodographs yielding 200-500 m²/s² 0-3 km SREH, the maximum should be over western Turkey during the evening. These supercells can bring large hail, wind gusts of more than 25 m/s mainly in northern parts of the areas where flow is strongest, and should be capable of producing significant tornadoes, given the 0-1 km shear vector magnitudes of 10-20 m/s and low condensation level. Excessive rain should be expected locally where unstable airmass is forced over higher terrain in particular at the convergence line associated with the cold front, which drags longest over northern parts of the level 2 areas.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
12/02/2012 06:08 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Is it just me or is there a pattern with these storms.

It is starting to look like whenever there is an defined uptick in Seimic activity first then the storms seem to roll in almost like they are attracted to the energy.

Mother Nature and Energy are powerful things. Storms feed off energy and vice versa.

Sure starting to look like they do.

Greece and Turkey and the Agean Sea have been pounding off the Earthquakes Lately and so has the West Coast and look at the storms now coming down on top of them.

I think the two are connected very closely.

Screw off "They and Haarp Idiot Tards" This idea is for people that actually use their brains.
Luisport (OP)

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12/02/2012 06:10 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
for me there are a link between sun activity, weather patherns and sismic activity... but it's difficult to explain more than intuition...
Anonymous Coward
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12/02/2012 06:10 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Japan did the same thing. Earthquakes including the big one and then they got pounded by storms afterwards. Actually even before they were having their fair share.

TM
Anonymous Coward
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12/02/2012 06:13 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
A quick check of New Zealand and Australia paints the same picture. Definetly a pattern to this.
Foveras

User ID: 28831118
Greece
12/02/2012 06:28 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Hello Luis,hf
Thanks for the info. hiding
Havent read any special warning in the Greek sites. I'll keep watching for any further infos. Very strange. If we see again tornadoes here will be something real strange. I dont recall many tornadoes in Greece. It is really rare here.
Love responsibility,
keep saying, I alone
will save the world
If it gets lost, myself only is responsible

N.Kazantzakis
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28905616
Greece
12/02/2012 07:13 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Some super-strong winds here in the Dodecanese, but very little rain.

Tornadoes and waterspouts pretty common this time of year though, so not really out of he ordinary. We're still here tomorrow, I'll let you know! hiding
insertfunnyusername

User ID: 28750763
Greece
12/02/2012 09:46 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Thnx for the info Luis.

lflash
insertfunnyusername

User ID: 28750763
Greece
12/02/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Some super-strong winds here in the Dodecanese, but very little rain.

Tornadoes and waterspouts pretty common this time of year though, so not really out of he ordinary. We're still here tomorrow, I'll let you know! hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28905616


Stay safe!

scream
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28917376
United Kingdom
12/02/2012 11:53 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Jesus, they see a couple of rain clouds in Greece and its a storm....


Get a grip will you.

Move to the UK or Northern Europe if you want some real storms..

hfhfhf
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 28917095
Portugal
12/02/2012 11:55 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Jesus, they see a couple of rain clouds in Greece and its a storm....


Get a grip will you.

Move to the UK or Northern Europe if you want some real storms..

hfhfhf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28917376


two days ago they had 3 tornados... this is not common for us in the south!
DJDOG

User ID: 21344862
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12/02/2012 11:57 AM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
bump
insertfunnyusername

User ID: 28750763
Greece
12/02/2012 12:00 PM
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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Jesus, they see a couple of rain clouds in Greece and its a storm....


Get a grip will you.

Move to the UK or Northern Europe if you want some real storms..

hfhfhf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28917376


chuckle
So true, lol, i've lived for some years in the UK as a student, no comparison at all, especially the one year i've lived in the north, foggy doesn't even describe it, friends telling me weather was a lot worse this year in the UK.

hf

Last Edited by insertfunnyusername on 12/02/2012 12:00 PM
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12/02/2012 01:15 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
bump
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
Luisport (OP)

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12/05/2012 10:28 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Dec 2012 06:00 to Thu 06 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Dec 2012 08:44
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for the Eastern Aegean Sea and Western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A long-wave trough pattern has established over Europe with its axis stretching from Norway into the Ionian Sea. Trough is filled with cold and rather dry airmass with no significant frontal boundary associated with any of the low pressure centers over the continental Europe. In the northwesterly flow, a belt of steep mid-level lapse rates has spread over much of the Mediterranean suggested by 00 UTC sounding measurements. However, meager low level moisture prevents from the significant latent instability build-up. Better situation will probably exist over the Aegean Sea / Western Turkey, where southerly low level flow will allow for some moisture return. Generally speaking, scattered DMC is forecast across most of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean during the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

... Eastern Aegean / Western Turkey

As the mid / upper tropospheric trough approaches the area, strengthening low level flow (which might exceed 20 m/s at 850 hPa level) will allow for rapid moisture return from the south with subsequent dew-point increase. With steep mid-level lapse rates spreading eastwards during the forecast period, some hundreds J/kg of CAPE should be observed. Strong southerly flow, favourable "forcing" factor as well as high rainfall sums predicted by NWP point to the possibility of excessive rainfall event. DLS should stay moderate (10 to 20 m/s) with LLS being significantly enhanced by the low-level jet over the inland area. If strong LLS overlaps with at least some low-level instability, tornado event might become possible,but nature of this overlap is highly questionable at the moment.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
12/05/2012 02:37 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
bump
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
12/06/2012 05:33 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 06 Dec 2012 06:00 to Fri 07 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Dec 2012 22:37
Forecaster: GATZEN
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION

A deep trough is placed across Europe. Especially at mid-levels, cold air masses spread southward into the Mediterranean Sea. Over the relatively warm sea surface of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea, steep low-level lapse rates are forecast. Weak convective inhibition and low-level moisture increase above the sea will be supportive for convection. Given the rather weak moisture as well as rather low-topped storms, some lightning is well possible and have been observed across the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea in the past hours. On Thursday, thunderstorms seem to be most likely over the Adriatic Sea and Aegean, but isolated storms may also form across the North Sea at the end of the period, given another mid-level trough moving southward. Although deep layer vertical wind shear is strong over most places, storms are expected to be too shallow and weak to become well-organized. Brief waterspouts may be possible, but overall threat is expected to be marginal.

Across Germany, a narrow cold frontal precipitation band has developed in the evening hours that will affect southern Germany in the morning hours. Some lightning will be possible there as well. Severe weather is not expected given the marginal instability.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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12/06/2012 02:13 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 07 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sat 08 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 06 Dec 2012 17:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep branch of the polar vortex is situated over Europe with numerous vortices rotating cyclonically around the main vortex of interest (centered over Poland).

An exiting upper trough keeps DMC alive over the Aegean Sea and W-Turkey mainly until noon with a rapid decrease thereafter. Enhanced LL CAPE and weak background shear pose an isolated waterspout risk mainly along the coast of W-Turkey. No level 1 will be issued due to the limited time-frame and the overall marginal set-up for spout development.

A strengthening vortex enters the W-Mediterranean during the night with a gradual increase of offshore CAPE. The heavy rain risk along the W-CNTRL coast of Italy and the E-coast of the Adriatic Sea may see an increase, but the progressive nature and the late onset of precipitation should keep the rainfall amounts below a level 1 threshold.

Elsewhere, sporadic CI is possible with sub-severe convection.

[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
12/07/2012 05:03 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 08 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 09 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 07 Dec 2012 22:01
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for the N-Aegean Sea mainly for heavy rainfall amounts.

A level 1 was issued for the E-Ionian Sea mainly for heavy rainfall amounts.

SYNOPSIS

Synoptic-wise, not much has changed during the past 24 h. Extensive branch of the polar vortex remains in place over Europe with at least 3 embedded vortices. The most dominant one enters the C-Mediterranean with gradually intensifying vorticity also in the lower troposphere. This cold-core feature will be the main focus for CI while moving atop the warm Mediterranean. For the rest of Europe, marginal moisture keeps DMC chances very limited (despite a few offshore places over the North and Baltic Sea). Very intense bora winds are forecast along the NE-Adriatic Sea.

DISCUSSION

... C Mediterranean, the Ionian and Aegean Sea ...

A strong vortex enters the C Mediterranean with an increasing T-SST spread (SSTs in excess of 16 °C for most places). Therefore, scattered CI is forecast in the highlighted areas, but modest CAPE and weak shear preclude organized convection.

Nevertheless, as the broad vortex strengthens also in the lower troposphere, LL ageostrophic wind field intensifies and may assist in heavy rainfall amounts within the level 1 areas (N-Aegean Sea during the night). We decided to keep the level 1 confined to the Ionian Sea, as CAA further north should bring snow levels down quite fast which also lowers the run-off. Another risk will be a few waterspout events over the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Sea but no level will be issued due to washy signals in different model fields.

Sporadic CI occurs over the far north North-Sea / Baltic Sea, but coverage remains too low for a 15-% lightning area.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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12/25/2012 06:11 AM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 25 Dec 2012 06:00 to Wed 26 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 25 Dec 2012 08:22
Forecaster: GATZEN
A level 1 was issued for southern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A deep trough moves into Europe today, the cold front will extend from eastern Poland to the eastern Alps to the west Mediterranean Sea at the end of the period. Ahead of this cold front, an unseasonably warm and moist air mass has been advected into west and central Europe. A broad warm air advection regime is located downstream across eastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Spain and west Mediterranean

A cold front is crossing Spain from the west. Ahead of this cold front, a tongue of very rich boundary-layer moisture has spread into southern Spain in the morning hours. Low-level mixing ratio is as high as 9 g/kg. 00 UTC Casablanca sounding also indicates the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates between 850 and 600 hPa, resulting at least in weak CAPE. The large capping layer in Casablanca has obviously disappeared across western Spain where numerous thunderstorms have been reported in the morning hours. The lift associated with the advance of the trough and cold front is expected to spread eastward during the next hours. Steep lapse rates are also expected, whereas latest observations indicate strongly decreasing low-level moisture. As a consequence, storms are expected to weaken in the next hours and may disappear later on. Along the southern coasts, more substantial moisture can support deep moist convection along the cold front.

Strong vertical wind shear in excess of 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km can support storms organization, and multicells are likely. Given the weak CAPE, large hail is not likely and rather weak low-level winds do also not support a severe wind threat. However, a few isolated events are not completely ruled out. Additionally, a brief tornado may be possible given the strong (10 m/s) low-level vertical wind shear. Rather weak low-level buoyancy reduces this threat, though.

Late in the period, the trough will move into the west Mediterranean. As it weakens, lift and vertical wind shear will also decrease, leading to a weak potential of storm organization. Storms are expected to develop to the south of a cold front reaching the Balearic Islands at the end of the period.

The Channel region, Benelux countries

Western Europe is affected by a strongly-forced synoptic situation today. Latest water vapor satellite image indicates a dark region associated with the cyclonically-sheared flank of the mid-level jet stream. Strong QG forcing is expected and low-level winds have turned to south ahead of the cold front. A tongue of rich low-level moisture (6 g/kg) and neutral to slightly unstable lapse rates have lead to CAPE in the order of 200 J/kg as indicated by latest Brest sounding.

Latest radar images indicate groups of thunderstorms that have developed across the Channel region moving north-eastward. Although a line of thunderstorms did not evolve, storms may organize in the strongly sheared environment, and bowing segments are not ruled out. These may be capable of producing severe wind gusts given strong low-level winds and vertical wind shear (10-15 m/s in the lowest kilometer). However, the potential seems to be too low for a risk level. Main convective activity is expected to spread into the Benelux countries before the trough weakends across the North Sea and north-western Germany.

Across the British Isles, another trough will lead to QF forcing in a convectively mixed air mass from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected. Given the strong vertical wind shear, isolated severe wind gusts are not ruled out. Tornadoes seem to be rather unlikely given the relatively weak low-level moisture.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
12/27/2012 06:45 PM

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Re: EUROPE ESTOFEX WEATHER ALLERT!!! Valid: Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sun 30 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 28 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sat 29 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 27 Dec 2012 19:50
Forecaster: DAHL
A level 1was issued mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for large hail and tornadoes across the Tyrrhenian Sea ... Sicily ... and the southern Ionian Sea.

SYNOPSIS

A high-amplitude upper pattern will exist over Europe on Friday, with an upper ridge axis moving from the British Isels into central Europe during the period. The trough to the west of this ridge will likewise make some eastward progress while maintaining a vast and rather intense surface low-pressure region which will start affecting western and central Europe early on Friday. The trough east oft he upper ridge will dig into the Ionian Sea where it will close off into an upper cut-off low. This development is accompanied by comparatively weak surface cyclogenesis over the central Mediterranean. This latter feature will be the focus for convective development this period.

DISCUSSION

... Tyrrhenian Sea ... Sicily ... southern Ionian Sea ...

Weak CAPE is expected to develop ahead of he Mediterranean upper trough, which should lead to gradually increasing thunderstorm activity through the period. CAPE will be seasonably weak, but DLS will increase from some 15-20 m/s to more than 25 m/s in the evning and overnight hours. This should allow storms to organize into line segments, capable of isolated marginally severe wind gusts, and possibly some hail. Given rather steep low-level lapse rates, a brief tornado or two cannot be discounted either, though the low-level shear magnitude over the sea should be rather modest.

... Greece ...

Strong orographic lift should support the development of an excessive rainfall event over Greece, starting late in the period, though the exact timing will depend on the position of the Mediterranean low-pressure system, the details of which are not entirely agreed upon by the different models. Given the orographically-dominated nature of this rain event, as well as uncertainties in the timing, will not include it in a LVL1 area at this time.

[link to www.estofex.org]

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