The Shattering of Europe: almost every European nation is threatened by breakaway movements.

Six days ago, the people of Spain’s most prosperous region, Catalonia, voted overwhelmingly for parties favouring the breaking away from Spanish rule. As a result, almost two out of three seats in the Catalan parliament are occupied by politicians who want an independence referendum.
The parallels with the situation in Scotland, where Alex Salmond’s SNP has secured a referendum for 2014, are irresistible. And it is worth remembering that this is far more than an obscure local squabble. Spain has Europe’s fifth biggest economy, while Catalonia is by far its richest and most dynamic region. The biggest Catalan city, Barcelona, is not just one of the Mediterranean’s most enterprising metropolises — it is the EU’s fourth biggest city by GDP.

Though few people today seem to realise it, the future of the United Kingdom is in the balance. While the Catalans are still arguing about their referendum, the Scottish Nationalists have already arranged theirs for 2014. It is, in other words, perfectly plausible that in two years, Great Britain will no longer exist.

Across Europe, separatist movements are buoyant. Many, after toiling in obscurity for years, have profited from the collapse of the European economy, exploiting popular resentments at their governing elites. In the Basque Country, for example, separatist parties won 48 out of 75 seats in October’s parliamentary elections. In Italy, the separatist Lombard League, which demands greater autonomy for the industrial north, won a record 26 per cent of the vote in recent regional elections.

Belgium has been paralysed by ethnic tension for more than a decade, with Dutch-speaking Flemings and French-speaking Walloons barely on speaking terms. Indeed, many experts believe the disintegration of Belgium is only a matter of time.

Even France — historically the most centralised country in Europe and famously intolerant of regional differences — has seen a surge in separatist sentiment. In Napoleon’s homeland of Corsica, support for independence has jumped threefold since 2004, and the Corsican nationalists came second in 2010’s regional elections.

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