Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) Catagory 5 Super Typhoon Heading for the Philippines

Landfall image: [link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu] [link to rammb.cira.colostate.edu] Assuming this image is properly aligned on the background map, it looks to be hitting that corner between Cateel and Baganga, threading the needle between them.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

From JTWC records 1950-2012, Bopha is the 10th Category 4+ typhoon (115 knots+) south of 8°N latitude. e.g. Paka (Dec 1997), Owen (Jan 1990)

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Digital Typhoon gives me 57 storms since 1950 within 350 km of Bopha. Red is most intense. [link to agora.ex.nii.ac.jp] … pic.twitter.com/Jy8hzDAm

38 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

From Digital Typhoon, Bopha appears to be strongest, lowest-latitude Typhoon in records to encounter Philippines at 7.5°N latitude.

40 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh took same track as Bopha during late-October but was less organized. Made landfall in Vietnam as powerful Cat 3.

46 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Bopha has peaked at 140-knots, equivalent to Category 5 landfall over Davao Region Philippines. Some higher terrain will disrupt circ.

Is this a sacrifice in honour of the son of Kate and William, A.K.A. the Antichrist?

Stay safe, Boro!! Keep us posted, okay???

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

SuperTyphoon Bopha makes landfall. Satellite intensity estimates 135-155 knots; JTWC going with 140-knots. Cat 5 equiv [link to twitter.com]

Update:

5:00am local time at the time of this post.

Sorry all I had fallen asleep for awhile.

Well the rain here has slowed to just a trickle.

The wind, however, has picked up considerably.
Were getting big gusts now maybe 40 to 60mph.

Good news for us is that the Typhoon has decided to drift more south, so we are not going to get the direct hit. The bad news is that all the warnings and evacs were issued for more of the northern towns etc of Mindanao. So these southern areas had almost no warning. My heart goes out to them, as this is a surprise attack. The other thing is the area of Davao and North Davao is quite a bit more populated than the path that was expected.

It looks like the Eye is going to Hit Bislig, Mindanao head on, in just under a hour.

Power Grid is now starting to Stress. Our lights are flickering, The UPS's keep clicking in and out.

Will keep you updated. Need some Coffee now :-)

Boro

Dr Masters is quoted in this news article found at abs.cbnnews.com

Pablo's track similar to Sendong's

Other foreign weather agencies and meteorologists have been tracking Pablo for days.

Dr. Jeff Masters, co-founder of Michigan-based commercial weather forecasting service Weather Underground, said the typhoon is following a similar track to last year's Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong), which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 and killed more than 1,200 people

LINK
[link to www.abs-cbnnews.com] category-5-supertyphoon-us-scientists

One of the rare positives about Bopha's landfall is that the Philippines should fare pretty well against the storm surge provided from the cyclone due to the deep waters right off the shore of the Philippines. Look how close the Philippine Trench is to the coastline of the Philippines. The lack of a wide continental shelf will prevent a large surge from building contrary to what we would see in the Gulf of Mexico.

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 4 2012
==============================

Typhoon PABLO has made landfall over Baganga, Davao Oriental.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [948 hPa] located at 7.6°N 126.9°E or east of the eastern coast of Davao Oriental has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots gusting up to 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

State of the sea is rough to phenomenal

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #3
-----------

Visayas Region
----------------
1. Southern Leyte
2. Bohol
3. Negros Oriental
4. Siquijor
5. Southern Cebu

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Surigao del Norte including Siargao
2. Surigao del Sur
3. Dinagat Province
4. Agusan del Norte
5. Agusan del Sur
6. Misamis Oriental
7. Camiguin
8. Bukidnon
9. Davao Oriental
10. Compostela Valley
11. North Cotabato
12.Lanao del Sur
13. Lanao del Norte Misamis Occidental
14. Zamboanga del Norte
15. Zamboanga del Sur
16. Davao del Norte including Samal Island


Signal Warning #2
-----------

Visayas Region
-------------
1. Rest of Cebu including Camotes Island
2. Iloilo
3. Guimaras Capiz
4. Leyte including Biliran
5. Negros Occidental

Mindanao Region
----------------
1. Davao del Sur
2. Sultan Kudarat
3. Zamboanga Sibugay
4. Maguindanao

Signal Warning #1
----------

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Palawan
2. Calamian Grp. Of Islands
3. Ticao Island
4. Masbate

Visayas Region
=============
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Western Samar,
4. Aklan
5. Antique

Mindanao Region
================
1. Basilan
2. Sarangani
3. South Cotabato

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-30 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Likewise, residents in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 and signal #3 are alerted against storm surges particulary those living in the coastal areas of Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat, Bohol and Leyte provinces where 3-6 meters wave height is expected.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the eastern Seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

Bopha made landfall just south of Cateel, a city with a population of 30,000 people. The northeast quadrant of the storm, meaning the Category 5-type winds, are going to pass directly over the area.

This storm is going to cause unimaginable damage to the region where buildings codes are poor. The death toll is going to be higher than any other storm we've seen this year in any basin.

Hundreds of coastal residents fled their homes Monday as Typhoon “Pablo” barreled toward the northeastern part of Mindanao with maximum sustained winds of 175 kilometers per hour gusting up to 210 kph.

Authorities shut down schools and government offices in the regions where the potential supertyphoon was likely to hit early this morning. Ferry boat operators and fishermen were told to stay ashore and civil defense units and the Philippine Coast Guard went on full alert ahead of the storm’s onslaught.

The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said close to 2,000 passengers had been stranded in nine seaports.

The NDRRMC said 54 “roll-on, roll-off” cargo ships and 25 other smaller sea vessels were stopped from leaving ports in the National Capital Region, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

The council said the Department of Social Welfare and Development had allocated P42.35 million worth of relief goods for affected provinces, including P3.7 million in stand-by funds. Prepacked food items were ready to be distributed to some 10,000 families in Mindanao, the agency said.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) hoisted Storm Signal No. 3 Monday over Surigao del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Dinagat Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, and Davao Oriental, warning of wind blasts between 100 and 185 kph in the next 18 hours.

“The weather is good right now but we keep advising local governments not to be complacent because this is going to get worse,” said Olive Luces, the regional director of the Office of Civil Defense in the Caraga region.

“Everyone is hoping that it won’t be that fierce,” said Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman after officials briefed President Aquino in Malacañang on disaster relief preparations.

‘Let’s pray’

Pablo (international name: “Bopha”) was spotted at 10 p.m. Monday in the Pacific 230 km southeast of Hinatuan City in Surigao del Sur. It was moving westward at 26 kph and was expected in Surigao del Sur Tuesday morning.

Signal No. 3 was raised in Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat Province, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Davao Oriental, Compostela Valley, North Cotabato, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte and Davao del Norte incl. Samal Is.

Storm Signal No. 2 was hoisted over Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu incl. Camotes Is, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Siquijor, Misamis Occidental, Davao del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Sultan Kudarat and Maguindanao.

Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte incl. Biliran, Aklan, Capiz, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, Zamboanga Sibugay, Basilan, Sarangani and South Cotabato were under Storm Signal No. 1.

“Let’s pray that, while this storm is expected to be stronger than ‘Sendong,’ we’ll be spared from a severe calamity,” Vice President Jejomar Binay said.

Tropical Storm “Sendong” struck Northern Mindanao a year ago, leaving more than 1,500 people dead.

Rear Adm. Luis Tuason Jr., officer in charge of the Philippine Coast Guard, placed the agency’s units to “brace up for the coming onslaught.”

Tuason warned ferry operators and fishermen against putting out to sea in the areas on the path of the typhoon.

Environment Secretary Ramon Paje ordered key field officials of his department to link up with local disaster management councils and issue geohazard advisories, saying that he expected the typhoon “to dump an unusual large volume of rainfall, especially in Mindanao.

Paje said the advisories should include relocation sites and “must point susceptibility levels of areas to landslides, floods, flash floods and debris accumulation zones, and must include warnings.”

Red alert

“All disaster agencies were placed on red alert ahead of the full brunt of Typhoon Pablo,” Blanche Gobenchiong, civil defense regional director, told the Philippine Daily Inquirer.

Gobenchiong said maritime operations all over the region particularly at the Butuan, Surigao and Dinagat ports had been suspended.

Local officials were not taking chances, apparently heeding the lesson of Supertyphoon “Nitang” (international name: “Ike”) in 1984. Packing winds of 220 kph, Nitang killed some 1,300 people in Surigao del Norte.

In Hinatuan and the capital town of Tandag in Surigao del Sur, forced evacuation was implemented in six coastal villages.

Surigao City Mayor Ernesto Matugas suspended classes in all levels and port operations and ferry boat trips in and out of the city were canceled. Gymnasiums in the area were already crammed with evacuees Monday.

Butuan City Mayor Ferdinand Amante said disaster rescue and relief personnel were on stand by and evacuation sites had been readied.

Dinagat Island Gov. Glenda Ecleo shut down schools and government offices Monday morning, while the Philippine Coast Guard ordered a no-sailing, no-fishing policy this noon in all areas of Caraga.

In Agusan del Sur, residents in low-lying and landslide-prone areas were told to evacuate. Gov. Adolf Edward Plaza directed the 14 town mayors of the province to designate evacuation centers. Classes were also suspended in San Francisco town at noon Monday.

Church in relief efforts

In Cagayan de Oro City, Archbishop Antonio Ledesma on Monday called for a briefing with lead government agencies. The Church will act as a coordinating body for the local government of Misamis Oriental and the city.

Mayor Vicente Emano ordered code blue, which means people living near rivers, streams, slopes and other disaster-prone areas in Cagayan de Oro should move to their barangay-designated evacuation areas. Two dump trucks were transporting residents to evacuation centers yesterday morning.

The Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council of Surigao del Norte has passed a resolution declaring forced evacuation for residents living in identified “high risk” areas all over the province.

Compostela Valley Gov. Arturo Uy said he ordered mining communities as early as Saturday to move to safer ground as they were most vulnerable to landslides. Uy, who was attending a peace and order meeting in Davao City, said he had asked people living near riverbanks to evacuate.

Davao del Norte Gov. Rodolfo del Rosario said over 100 volunteers were on standby in the province.

“I have asked the disaster office to issue regular updates for us to keep ourselves abreast of the status of the storm and be aware of its effects, so that we can immediately come to the aid of neighboring communities,” said Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte.

Gov. Mujiv Hataman said the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao was also bracing for the typhoon.

Hataman said his office would monitor water levels in catch basins where floodwaters from Bukidnon, North Cotabato and South Cotabato drain in Lanao or Cotabato City.

Authorities in the Visayas and the Bicol region also geared up for Pablo’s onslaught. With reports from TJ Burgonio, Tarra Quismundo, Jerry Esplanada in Manila; and Danilo V. Adorador III, Chris V. Panganiban, Cai Panlilio, Germelina Lacorte, Julie S. Alipala, Frinston Lim, Bobby Lagsa, Inquirer Mindanao; Jani Arnaiz, Joey Gabieta, Jhunnex Napallacan, Carmel Loise Matus, Carla Gomez and Nestor Burgos, Inquirer Visayas; and Mar S. Arguelles, Inquirer Southern Luzon

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

A potential disaster is unfolding as Super Typhoon Bopha makes landfall on the Philippines island of Mindanao. [link to www.accuweather.com]

The wind is really picking up now.

50 to 70mph gusts
The rain has also started to pick up again.

Here is some info on Davao, closer to where the eye is.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Looks like about 1/2 million people or so in direct hit zone.
More that 4 million in the city further south.

Boro

Just stay safe my friend, we are praying for you and Philipines!

Thanks, yep were are holding on.

Still have power, but the local cable company just went off-Line. We had to switch to satellite now.
They are talking about Davao area now.

Boro

Someone asked earlier what the name Bopha meant, I believe it was Wash115 and I just found this in a story from Accuweather.com

The name Bopha, pronounced boe-fa, originates from Cambodia and means blossom or flower.

I myself was wondering the same and didn't have clue hoe to say the name, do now...

Update:

6:30am local time as of this post.

Still major wind gusts. 40 to 60mph.
Rain has been and still mild, expected it to much more.

Cable TV Off-Line
Power just went out.

I can hear sheet metal roofs in the area bending or loose.

Boro

Is Davao City ok i have a friend that lives there are gonna take a direct hit or are they south of it?

Davao city is south of the eye. But they will get the strong winds and rain.

We are still waiting for TV news to tell us what is happening in Davao.

Boro

Davao city is south of the eye. But they will get the strong winds and rain.

We are still waiting for TV news to tell us what is happening in Davao.

Boro

Update:

6:40am local time of this post.

Winds are really picking up. Got to be 70 to 90mph now.
Just seen the top part of neighbor roof is gone.

getting serious now.

Boro

Hope you are ok OP.

Still hangin in.

We have no rain, but the wind gusts are in the 70 to 90mph range.

lost part of a few of our trees, so sad.

I am amazed though that our local news is not saying much, other than its a big storm and take cover. No live coverage of the harder hit areas at all. Where's Anderson Cooper when you need him LOL.

Boro

Some mention of it on CNN just saying its potentially devastating not mentioning much details, they said some report of 3400 people being stranded on piers, not sure where tho. Good luck.

Thousands stranded on piers?? This doesn't sound good.

I think what they mean is people who wanted to travel to Mindanao who are in other islands waiting for ferries etc.

No one is standing in a pier in the storm path.

Boro

Updates?

I think it is all happening now so there won't be many live reports...

(AFP) – 7 minutes ago
MANILA — Typhoon Bopha smashed into the southern Philippines early Tuesday as more than 40,000 people crammed into shelters to escape the onslaught of the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year.

The state weather service said Bopha made landfall on Mindanao island's east coast at dawn, raking across the island of 10 million people, packing gusts of up to 210 kilometres (130 miles) an hour and bringing heavy rain.
There were no immediate reports of casualties or serious damage but Mindanao was in lockdown with residents of coastal and flood-prone areas moving into shelters as floods hit some areas.

Aviation and shipping were suspended, with 80 flights grounded and thousands of ferry passengers stranded at ports as the coastguard ordered vessels to stay in port, the civil defence office said.

More than 41,000 people had moved into nearly 1,000 government shelters across the island by early Tuesday, it said in its latest bulletin.

The commercial centre of Cagayan de Oro, one of Mindanao's largest cities, was hit by flooding as rivers overflowed following heavy rain.

School holidays were declared in Mindanao and large areas of the central Philippines.

President Benigno Aquino led calls for evacuations on Monday, saying: "(Bopha's) destructive potential is no laughing matter. It is expected to be the strongest typhoon to hit our country in 2012."

The Philippines is battered by about 20 typhoons a year, some of them destructive. Bopha is the sixteenth so far this year.

In August, nearly 100 people were killed and more than a million were displaced by heavy flooding caused by a series of storms.

Nineteen typhoons struck the country last year, of which 10 were destructive, leading to more than 1,500 deaths and affecting nearly 10 percent of the total population, according to the government.

Why are the news networks barely, or not even touching this story? I feel like if anything happens on the east coast of this country weather-wise, the national news networks are ALL over it. This however... Hauntingly silent...