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Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10

 
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
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12/05/2012 11:35 AM

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Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Not a good scenario.

Seeing a surface low forming in the Great Lakes starting at 995mb Monday morning and rapidly deepening to 977mb in 18hrs.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

At 500mb, a very strong negative-tilt trough with 100 to 125 knot mid-level jet!

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

Huge temp drop across the front:

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]


Stay tuned for updates
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 12:03 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
trans_sign laymans terms? what does this mean? what do you expect?
HippyAwakened

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12/05/2012 12:08 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
When I heard thunder yesterday here in southern Indiana, immediately came to mind...thunder in December, snow soon to follow.
Tomato-tard
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 12:09 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Thanks for the info OP! You're always looking out for us!hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 12:14 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Minus Geo-Engineering!

They have been right most of the time!

[link to www.farmersalmanac.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 12:32 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Thanks for the info OP! You're always looking out for us!hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28458460


cheers
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 12:34 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Ryan Maue

995 mb low moves into Great Lakes Monday, band of snow on backside 3-6'' from Chicago thru Michigan. GFS 12z:

[link to twitter.com]


From 995 mb to 967 mb in 24-hours over land is a very potent extratropical cyclone "bomb". Impressive. GFS +144hrs:

[link to twitter.com]
Luisport

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12/05/2012 01:33 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
hf
Luisport

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12/05/2012 01:35 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

That core of cold entering the states in the 5 day means will wipe out the warmth if it comes southeast as I think [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
THUNDER SNOW coming to a theatre near you
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 01:40 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
luisport - thank you for being a watchman on the 'weather wall' for us, if DOOM comes by weather you will surely let us know ahead of time

hf
Luisport

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12/05/2012 01:44 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
luisport - thank you for being a watchman on the 'weather wall' for us, if DOOM comes by weather you will surely let us know ahead of time

hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13158115


Thank's! I just hope so! I'm allways paying attention, and with Doorbert help we will go trought this!hf
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 01:45 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
hf
 Quoting: Luisport


hf
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 01:48 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
trans_sign laymans terms? what does this mean? what do you expect?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1880593


Severe weather someplace. Trying to figure out target area.

Looks like maybe DC south.

Could get blizzard conditions on backside, maybe MN, WI
ANNONYMOUS
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12/05/2012 02:23 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
5a

Hey D without better surface declension it is hard to tell what is where. What does this bode for SE Michigan? I can tell it doesn't look good but are they trying to say -30M or is that a temp projection I hope not?
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 02:27 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
5a

Hey D without better surface declension it is hard to tell what is where. What does this bode for SE Michigan? I can tell it doesn't look good but are they trying to say -30M or is that a temp projection I hope not?
 Quoting: ANNONYMOUS 8415236


Probably not severe weather, but big temp drop and maybe few inches of snow
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 02:35 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Wow, a negative tilt could mean bad news if this happens!
Luisport

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12/05/2012 02:36 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Wow, a negative tilt could mean bad news if this happens!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


can you explain why? Thank's!hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 02:40 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Wow, a negative tilt could mean bad news if this happens!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


can you explain why? Thank's!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


I am not an expert but from what I have learned over the years is at the bottom (south end) of a low pressure system, the winds in a negative tilt come in from the S/E instead of the S/W creating wind shear (cross winds)which create supercells, which can mean the difference of a few tornadoes to a lot of tornadoes. In December? Not unheard of but damn!
Luisport

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12/05/2012 02:42 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Wow, a negative tilt could mean bad news if this happens!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


can you explain why? Thank's!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


I am not an expert but from what I have learned over the years is at the bottom (south end) of a low pressure system, the winds in a negative tilt come in from the S/E instead of the S/W creating wind shear (cross winds)which create supercells, which can mean the difference of a few tornadoes to a lot of tornadoes. In December? Not unheard of but damn!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Geeezzzzzzz Thank's!hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Wow, a negative tilt could mean bad news if this happens!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


can you explain why? Thank's!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


I am not an expert but from what I have learned over the years is at the bottom (south end) of a low pressure system, the winds in a negative tilt come in from the S/E instead of the S/W creating wind shear (cross winds)which create supercells, which can mean the difference of a few tornadoes to a lot of tornadoes. In December? Not unheard of but damn!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Geeezzzzzzz Thank's!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


Your welcome! I hope this does not happen because I live in the target area!
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 02:49 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
DB, you into severe weather? I like your other posts, and would be cool to know there are other severe weather nuts like myself on here!

headbang
Digital mix guy

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12/05/2012 02:54 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
hmm
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 03:06 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
DB, you into severe weather? I like your other posts, and would be cool to know there are other severe weather nuts like myself on here!

headbang
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Oh - yea!

Chasing tornadoes & canes.

Lots of years under my belt.

Been in an F1 tornado and Cat 1 cane.

How about you?
DoorBert (OP)

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12/05/2012 03:06 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
Much thanks for the pin!
Luisport

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12/05/2012 03:07 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
450 AM CST WED DEC 5 2012

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>05 0-073-074-061200-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBA GO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
450 AM CST WED DEC 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN COULD CAUSE UNTREATED ROADS...BRIDGES
AND SIDEWALKS TO BECOME SLICK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IT WOULD BRING TO THE AREA. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE
ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM AND
PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED
TO REPORT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN
INCH.
ANNONYMOUS
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12/05/2012 03:10 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
5a

Thanks D I have been following your predictions for about 8 mos now and they all appear to be spot on!
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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12/05/2012 03:11 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
DB, you into severe weather? I like your other posts, and would be cool to know there are other severe weather nuts like myself on here!

headbang
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Doorbert & Luis tirelessly kept us all up to date through the entire Sandy experience. From the Bahamas all the way through landfall in the NE.

hf
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"Don't die on a small cross..." Saddletramp's Mom

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Killer Bunny mockingjay
Luisport

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12/05/2012 03:14 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
DB, you into severe weather? I like your other posts, and would be cool to know there are other severe weather nuts like myself on here!

headbang
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Doorbert & Luis tirelessly kept us all up to date through the entire Sandy experience. From the Bahamas all the way through landfall in the NE.

hf
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Hello Jane how are you? Thank you for you kindness!hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/05/2012 03:15 PM
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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
JEEZZZUUSSS!!!

Don't tell me it's going to snow in December now!?!? Oh wait.....

Just kidding :)
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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12/05/2012 03:16 PM

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Re: Severe-Weather Outbreak Forecast for Monday, Dec 10
DB, you into severe weather? I like your other posts, and would be cool to know there are other severe weather nuts like myself on here!

headbang
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 13718332


Doorbert & Luis tirelessly kept us all up to date through the entire Sandy experience. From the Bahamas all the way through landfall in the NE.

hf
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Hello Jane how are you? Thank you for you kindness!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


Very good. hf

Wonder if this will bring some snow to the DC metro area? That will make the kids very happy :o)
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

"Don't die on a small cross..." Saddletramp's Mom

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
-- William Shakespeare, born April 23, 1564.

Killer Bunny mockingjay

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