BERLUSCONI SAYS HE MAY WITHDRAW HIS CANDIDACY IF MONTI STEPS IN!!!

Markets are down.

US futures are down modestly.

Much of Europe is off hard.

Spain is down 1.7%.

Germany is off 0.5%.

France is off 0.6%.

And Italy... down 3%.

Bank stocks in Italy are down over 5%.

The big story of the weekend is the rising political chaos, although it's arguably overblown. Mario Monti will resign after passing a budget, and Silvio Berlusconi will run. Berlusconi's chances are considered to be tiny, but in a recovering financial state, any disruption hurts. Borrowing costs in Italy are jumping.


Read more: [link to www.businessinsider.com]

Italy 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483462 4.74 +0.27 6.02%
Spain 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483373 5.60 +0.15 2.68%

Left wing French newspaper Libération is running the following cover tomorrow, dealing with Silvio Berlusconi's weekend announcement that he will (again) be seeking re-election as Italian prime minister.
The headline, "Le Retour de la momie", means "The return of the mummy". It is also the French name for the 2001 Brendan Fraiser movie, The Mummy Returns. Here's what IMDB has to say about that film (emphasis ours):

The mummified body of Imhotep is shipped to a museum in London, where he once again wakes and begins his campaign of rage and terror.


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fuck the markets

Recent opinion polls give Berlusconi’s PDL party 14-18% of the vote, down significantly from the 37.4% won in the 2008 election. The centre-left PD party led by Pier Luigi Bersani is polled to win 30-38% compared to 33.2% in the 2008 election. The anti- establishment 5-star movement is set to win 15-20% of the votes according to recent polls.

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On top of the Berlusconi inspired selloff, Italian industrial production was just ugly.

From Istat.it:

In October 2012 the industrial production index seasonally adjusted decreased by 1.1% compared with the previous month. The percentage change of the average of the last three months with respect to the previous three months was -0.5%.

The calendar adjusted industrial production index decreased by 6.2% compared with October 2011 (calendar working days in October 2012 being 23 versus 21 days in October 2011); in the period January-October 2012 the percentage change was -6.5 compared with the same period of 2011.

The unadjusted index of industrial production decreased by 0.3% compared with October 2011.


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European Are Sovereign Borrowing Costs Are Surging — Just Like Old Times

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zerohedge‏@zerohedge

From DB: Spain’s disappointing auction on Tuesday may be the first sign that the sovereign is touching the limits of “virtual intervention”

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

If the Italian budget passes with the same speed it passes in the US or EU, Monti will be PM until 2022

I thought that foul was on his way to prison???
Strange time!! I wonder if the bonds will sky rocket in the coming days??

Business Insider‏@businessinsider

'Divorce Italian Style' — A Significant Downside Risk To The Global Economy [link to read.bi]

You don't know that rich people don't go to prison?

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

ITALIAN 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD RISES 35 BPS TO 4.88%

21 minzerohedge‏@zerohedge

SPANISH 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD RISES 19 BPS TO 5.64%

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

Italy Sovereign Debt Held by Domestic Banks Rises to Record

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

Remember when Goldman said to buy Spanish bonds as a top 2013 trade? Good times

Italy 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483462 4.78 +0.31 6.91%
Spain 10yr /quotes/zigman/3483373 5.62 +0.17 3.04%

Business Insider‏@businessinsider

Italy Has Trumped Greece As Europe's #1 Source Of Crisis [link to read.bi]

...S&P warned before the weekend that it would consider lowering Italy's rating if the recession continued well into 2013. The Bloomberg consensus currently forecasts precisely that. The economy is expected to contract through Q3 13. Last week, the ECB staff cuts its 2013 euro area growth forecasts too.

The latest polls show the center-left PD with a 15 pt lead over Berlusconi's PDL. There is also the 5-Star movement, which is the protest party, which like in other countries has emerged during the crisis. On programmatic grounds, the 5-Star shares much in common with the PDL, including a skepticism of participating in monetary union. Both 5-Star and the PDL are based on single personalities and it is not clear that all of Italy is big enough for the egos of Berlusconi and Grillo.

More worrisome for investors, is a renewed alliance between the Northern League and the PDL. The risk is that it retracts, dilutes or in other ways backtrack from the necessary, even if insufficient reforms of Monti's government.

There are still numerous moving pieces. It is not clear whether Monti government can pass electoral reform during its waning days. It is not clear if the local elections, in which the left tends to do better, will be held before, with the national election (as the PDL wants) or afterwards. If the PD wins, it is possible Monti becomes the next President of Italy. A hung parliament could see Monti remain Prime Minister, either in a technocrat form or as a compromise candidate with a parliamentary majority.

Regardless of the particular details, the political risk in Italy has risen and Italian bonds will likely suffer as a result. It could have knock negative repercussions for the euro. With the latest turn in Italian politics, Italy may leap frog over both Greece and Spain as the source of angst for investors and policy makers.

Read more: [link to www.marctomarket.com]

I thought we've seen the last of that snobby smirk of his...but I guess not

Anyway this deserves a pin !

:pin:

Thank's my friend! This novel is getting better and better... much better than brazilian novels!

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

Monti Is Undecided on Running for Renewed Mandate: Repubblica

zerohedge‏@zerohedge

Spain now blaming Italy: economy minister says uncertainties about Italy are having contagion effect on Spain

Yes this is turning into a regular soap opera with each passing day, unfortunately a lot of people are going to suffer because of these circus clowns !

We are suffering so much here that you don't imagine! By govs numbers more than 10.000 children arrive to schols without eating in theire homes.