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BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008

 
2012Portal (OP)
2012Portal - The Mayan Calendar

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12/12/2012 03:59 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
Between this and the Eu banking stuff it doesnt look good.
Anyone have an idea of WHEN this happens. 3 months? 6 Months? 1 year?
 Quoting: Mrgravyard


Who knows and this is not advice, but, if we look at the BDI chart here:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

You see in 2008, two major spikes down. The -10%+ spike at the end of 2008 when the stocks crashed and another spike, around June.

There was a spike down a year ago - but remember, the Fed has been pumping up stocks from 2009 till now. So, hard to say. Could be three wees, could be three months. The Fed may even have more tricks up their sleeves; it is a very manipulated market right now, on many levels - which just may end up being it's down-fall.
Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
tandym

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12/12/2012 04:00 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
related - markets do an about-face and turn red and still falling:
[link to www.marketwatch.com]

The Fed talked and for the first time made an announcement about the goal for where the unemployment rate should be, for when they will raise rates. See:

[link to www.marketwatch.com]
 Quoting: 2012Portal


An associate told me that this was the sign to watch for directly preceding the collapse. Saddletramp - care to weigh in?
2012Portal (OP)
2012Portal - The Mayan Calendar

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12/12/2012 04:27 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
If you held AAPL or name your symbol for the last 5 years which is a "winner" - many stock experts are saying sell and take your profits -- THIS YEAR and pay less taxes. 2013 will bring higher taxes, so this may be an issue.

Generally, stocks go up around the holidays though, so this could be interesting.
Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/12/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
[link to hosted.ap.org]

This
2012Portal (OP)
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12/12/2012 04:30 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 920181


Right, the Fiscal cliff, das budget deficit!
Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
thinkingoutsidetherho​mbus

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12/12/2012 05:29 PM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
related - markets do an about-face and turn red and still falling:
[link to www.marketwatch.com]

The Fed talked and for the first time made an announcement about the goal for where the unemployment rate should be, for when they will raise rates. See:

[link to www.marketwatch.com]
 Quoting: 2012Portal


An associate told me that this was the sign to watch for directly preceding the collapse. Saddletramp - care to weigh in?
 Quoting: tandym


bump
I don't know where you get your delusions, laser brain.
tandym

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12/13/2012 10:45 AM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
Between this and the Eu banking stuff it doesnt look good.
Anyone have an idea of WHEN this happens. 3 months? 6 Months? 1 year?
 Quoting: Mrgravyard


April / May?
waterlily

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12/13/2012 11:27 AM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
So do you all think shipping stays as high as the few months before the holidays? Do you think product demand is as high in Jan, Feb as Oct-Dec?

It makes perfect sense that it is dropping.

But you are all welcome to ignore this post.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2234637


You can go to Bloomberg's historical chart page for the BDI and set the pointer for time periods for ranges from 1 day to 5 years. Shipping maximizes in summer months. This year we see three plunges (Sep, Nov, Dec), with the current plunge taking a steep dive. If you look at the 5 year chart you will see that current international shipping is at about 1/4 what it was 5 years ago. What we do not need is another plunge, the 3rd in 4 months. So yes, you may have heard a lot of doom, but it does not seem to be misplaced pessimism. It seems to be more of a valid comment on a degenerating world economy.

Go over to Bloomberg and play with the charts. Draw your own conclusions.

[link to www.bloomberg.com]
*********** WaterLily ***********
" Do I dare
Disturb the universe?"
-- T. S. Elliot, Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock

*************************************
“We are as ignorant of the meaning of the dragon as we are of the meaning of the universe.”
-- Jorge Luis Borges
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Pompey made his preparations for the war at the end of the winter, entered upon it at the commencement of spring,
and finished it in the middle of the summer."
-- Cicero, De Imperio Cn. Pompei
waterlily

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12/13/2012 11:30 AM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
Between this and the Eu banking stuff it doesnt look good.
Anyone have an idea of WHEN this happens. 3 months? 6 Months? 1 year?
 Quoting: Mrgravyard


Who knows and this is not advice, but, if we look at the BDI chart here:

[link to www.zerohedge.com]

You see in 2008, two major spikes down. The -10%+ spike at the end of 2008 when the stocks crashed and another spike, around June.

There was a spike down a year ago - but remember, the Fed has been pumping up stocks from 2009 till now. So, hard to say. Could be three wees, could be three months. The Fed may even have more tricks up their sleeves; it is a very manipulated market right now, on many levels - which just may end up being it's down-fall.
 Quoting: 2012Portal


I have read that Bedoins, when faced with a down camel in the middle of the desert, bad news, will light a fire under the camel to get it on its feet and going again.

FYI.
*********** WaterLily ***********
" Do I dare
Disturb the universe?"
-- T. S. Elliot, Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock

*************************************
“We are as ignorant of the meaning of the dragon as we are of the meaning of the universe.”
-- Jorge Luis Borges
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Pompey made his preparations for the war at the end of the winter, entered upon it at the commencement of spring,
and finished it in the middle of the summer."
-- Cicero, De Imperio Cn. Pompei
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2012 11:43 AM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
good thread, thanks guys
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2012 11:56 AM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
...


We are obviously in the final stages for the dollar, as the last bubble to pop will be the sovereign bond market.

But, your question is to the point, I think they can sort of control this train wreck sort of like controlled demolition, but when the final stages of collapse begin it will pass out of their monetary control, then they will rely on gubment force to maintain control, mao style.

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit (debt) expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit (debt) expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Mises.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 961432


You're spot on, but I would argue they will seem to lose control, but they will never actually lose control.

If you look at the new BASEL III accounting rules coming out, it is plain as day that they are engineering a crisis worse even than 2008 (2008 was BASEL II, Mark to Market accounting, which also froze credit around the world).

There is a lot of evidence out there to suggest that they will allow fiat currencies to collapse, only to bring back in currencies backed by baskets of commodities; gold, proven energy reserves, silver, real estate, etc., and since of course they own 90% of these commodities, they will still be sitting in the drivers seat of this new monetary coup). This is just part of the debt cycle, a cycle that has been extended by almost fifty years due to dramatic growth after WWII, the population of the world has most likely peaked, food production is declining, and energy production has also peaked and begun to roll-over...it's time to contract the money supply to match the other curves, re-set, and start a new phase...

But you're not going to like this new declining phase...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


I see you are thinking way ahead, ahead of 99%. I agree they will need to engineer a collapse, for the "controlled demotion" I just think that their probability of success isn't as great as they anticipate.

The dollar has and is continuing to function as the world's reserve currency and all bills of credit are denominated in $$. That system has taken generations to develop for global trade, everything is based on a functioning bills of credit system and a clearing house for those bills. The dollar or a fiat currency unit simply replaced bills of credit that were maturing into gold bullion. But a fiat currency unit is a horrible substitute for gold as it is necessary to assume the standard unit of account is constant to calculate the future value of a bill of credit, a fiat currency unit is non-linear and in no way shape or form a constant value. They have gotten away with this for 40 years simply due to the toxic waste pile that has been accumulating, the world's or global debt mountain.

Even a new fiat currency supposedly backed by a basket of commodities including gold like the SDR will not function as the dollar has functioned replacing bills of credit that matured into gold bullion, since its value is still non-linear to enrich the groups in control of its issuance (BIS whatever).

Only a free market, and a unit of account chosen by the free market can establish what can serve as a standard unit of account for global trade, it took thousands of years for that unit to mature or evolve into gold bullion.

What you are witnessing is Peak Hubris amongst the aggregated wealth concentrations of the world, sort of like a modern day Tower of Babel. Only chaos can replace this system as that is what has been sown.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 961432


I agree 100% with everything your saying, except to the point that the reason their plan will most likely succeed, is because people have so little understanding of the real economic and monetary system we have in place.

Quite simply put, they will beg the very men that looted and collapsed the system in the first place to save that same derilict system. And when TPTB come riding in with a solution to the very problem they created, and when they rape every man woman and child for 50% or more of their net worth in the process, the people of the world will get on their knee's to thank them for saving a pitence of their 401k or their pension.

It's stunning, yes, but you know it's true.

The Keynesian Monetary/Economic system they have developed, whether you like it or not, you must admit, is criminal genius refined to an art form...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


Thanks Saddle.

I think you're on target.

Some things I'd add are...

The Basal (Mark-to-Market) was later somewhat "avoided" by big biz - per the Head of of FASB (Finacial Accounting Standards Board) being grilled by Congress...as our (US) institutions were getting battered. Congress put sufficient pressure to "relax" this accounting. This partly helped make the "recovery" seem "real".

Also, yes again I agree on the (global "solution") planned...indeed it will finally work for the global system...as "the book" (tells us so) - as many know well here, per buying/selling.

It does appear some sort of new system backed by real assets is coming - as (the old) continues to break down.

Evidence is everywhere for that - indeed, when one looks at the new Basal Committee Stds and (publically to be accepted by the US Treasury and FDIC), per their (last spring) memo...one can then understand, WHY the "committee" has re-defined Tier 1 assets, to INCLUDE GOLD BULLION. (NOT PAPER GOLD).

So, while the sheeple are being told not to acquire this asset...as the suppression through paper derivatives continues - all the while, the CB's, sovereign states and other (elite) institutions, are acquriing it as fast as possible. They know.

So yes...the change cometh.

Praise God forever
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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12/13/2012 02:22 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
related - markets do an about-face and turn red and still falling:
[link to www.marketwatch.com]

The Fed talked and for the first time made an announcement about the goal for where the unemployment rate should be, for when they will raise rates. See:

[link to www.marketwatch.com]
 Quoting: 2012Portal


An associate told me that this was the sign to watch for directly preceding the collapse. Saddletramp - care to weigh in?
 Quoting: tandym


Any signigicant rise in effective interest rates by central banks will cause an instant market crash.

The Fed has put themselves in a catch 22, we've been in a chronically low interest rate environment with almost non-existant economic growth for so long it is having a real dampening effect on fixed income people, and therefore the economy as a whole, but if they raise rates, the markets instantly crash. It's just another sign the cycle is almost over.

The Fed's tool box is empty, but that is not uncommon at the end of an economic cycle, Bernanke knows where he's at here, he's not stupid despite the role he plays on TV, he's just working within the system as it has been designed, but there are some differences between this cycle and the cycle that preceeded the Great Depression. For one, one of the things they did during the Great Depression was basically tax every man woman and child holding gold backed paper currency 40% overnight by increasing the value of the gold used to back that currency, or devaluing the currency. This time we are dealing with an entirely fiat currency, so they only way they will be able to pull a version of that same stunt is by re-valuing the currency after a hyperinlationary loss of confidence in the currency by returning backing to said currency, but taking much of the currency out of circulation in the process (this will be true for both paper and electronic currency).

In other words, when they return backing to the currency, you will either have your bank accounts (electronic credits and debits) cut by a percentage with a keystroke on a computer, or you will have to bring in any actual paper currency you're holding and exchange it for the new backed currency, at a percentage deduction of course (just as an example, $200 old for $100 new). This will also apply to loans - loan principal will be cut by a percentage (including sovereign debt). But make no mistake, the commodities backing the currency will skyrocket in value, and the elite already own 90% of those commodities around the world, so they will gain despite any reduction in the value of the currency they currently hold.

This Keynesian Econimic system we find ourselves with has always been designed to funnel money from the bottom to the top, then have it trickle back down to the bottom (after a percentage is retained by the top of course), but the Trickle Down effect has been broken through repealing the Glass-Steagall act, Accounting Regulations, and outright greed that have essentially stopped the banks from loaning out money to consumers or small business'. And make no mistake, the breaking of that system has been quit intentional. These guys are not stupid, they recognize where we are in the bigger scheme of cyclical Keynesian Economics and, world cycles such as population, energy, and food, and they would rather break it themselves, then rebuild it, than lose control entirely, though they will certainly appear too...

Don't be fooled, remember, Ordo ab chao, no matter how much chaos you see unfolding around the world when this finally happens, it is all part of the bigger plan...the plan to soak you for half of your net worth overnight!

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 12/13/2012 03:21 PM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
tandym

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12/13/2012 03:21 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
I see what you mean -- though Joel Skousen has said that he believes that there is too much money in the supply right now for them ever to bring the level down to a point at which they can revalue it.


So on the one hand the debt & bubble are unsustainable...

yet

there's too much money in the supply for them to deflate it...

I can see nothing else in our future except for a major collapse and a new currency introduced.

Well, shit.
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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12/13/2012 03:23 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
I see what you mean -- though Joel Skousen has said that he believes that there is too much money in the supply right now for them ever to bring the level down to a point at which they can revalue it.


So on the one hand the debt & bubble are unsustainable...

yet

there's too much money in the supply for them to deflate it...

I can see nothing else in our future except for a major collapse and a new currency introduced.

Well, shit.
 Quoting: tandym


I'm fixing to do an entire thread of my own on this...

Working on a video which I hope to release next week.
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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12/13/2012 03:28 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
I see what you mean -- though Joel Skousen has said that he believes that there is too much money in the supply right now for them ever to bring the level down to a point at which they can revalue it.


So on the one hand the debt & bubble are unsustainable...

yet

there's too much money in the supply for them to deflate it...

I can see nothing else in our future except for a major collapse and a new currency introduced.

Well, shit.
 Quoting: tandym


Also, Joel is making the assumption that they will only use gold backing. I think it will be a basket of commodities situation, specific to each currency, but with all backed currencies pegged together.

For the U.S. as an example, they might use 10% gold backing, 50% proven energy reserves, and 40% Real estate...
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Anonymous Coward
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12/13/2012 03:58 PM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
I see what you mean -- though Joel Skousen has said that he believes that there is too much money in the supply right now for them ever to bring the level down to a point at which they can revalue it.


So on the one hand the debt & bubble are unsustainable...

yet

there's too much money in the supply for them to deflate it...

I can see nothing else in our future except for a major collapse and a new currency introduced.

Well, shit.
 Quoting: tandym


Also, Joel is making the assumption that they will only use gold backing. I think it will be a basket of commodities situation, specific to each currency, but with all backed currencies pegged together.

For the U.S. as an example, they might use 10% gold backing, 50% proven energy reserves, and 40% Real estate...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


(A quick definition here too)...while I agree that the new currency will be "backed" with real assets - probably to include gold (if not primarily gold), one should still distinguish between currency "backed" with gold vs. a currency "redeemable" with gold. They're far, far from the same.

When the time comes...tptb will try to (leave no distinction between them), if not out-and-out attempt to confuse the definitions between them.

The former, merely having ("x" tones/ounces) "somewhere", for every "y" number of currency...which unless there's a robust auditing system in place, can still be "played with", vs. the latter, meaning, one can go to designated locations, and convert any part of your currency "on demand" back to gold.

Therefore this redeemability is by far a more (certain) system in avoiding fraud/debasement...but even so, don't count on it.

Praise God
Saddletramp
We Don't Rent Pigs...

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12/13/2012 04:00 PM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
I see what you mean -- though Joel Skousen has said that he believes that there is too much money in the supply right now for them ever to bring the level down to a point at which they can revalue it.


So on the one hand the debt & bubble are unsustainable...

yet

there's too much money in the supply for them to deflate it...

I can see nothing else in our future except for a major collapse and a new currency introduced.

Well, shit.
 Quoting: tandym


Also, Joel is making the assumption that they will only use gold backing. I think it will be a basket of commodities situation, specific to each currency, but with all backed currencies pegged together.

For the U.S. as an example, they might use 10% gold backing, 50% proven energy reserves, and 40% Real estate...
 Quoting: Saddletramp


(A quick definition here too)...while I agree that the new currency will be "backed" with real assets - probably to include gold (if not primarily gold), one should still distinguish between currency "backed" with gold vs. a currency "redeemable" with gold. They're far, far from the same.

When the time comes...tptb will try to (leave no distinction between them), if not out-and-out attempt to confuse the definitions between them.

The former, merely having ("x" tones/ounces) "somewhere", for every "y" number of currency...which unless there's a robust auditing system in place, can still be "played with", vs. the latter, meaning, one can go to designated locations, and convert any part of your currency "on demand" back to gold.

Therefore this redeemability is by far a more (certain) system in avoiding fraud/debasement...but even so, don't count on it.

Praise God
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25140151


I agree totally...they will not make any new currency "Redeemable" to any of these hard commodities, at least not for the public at large...FDR did away with that in 1931 (at least for the American population), and I don't expect that to come back any time soon...

Last Edited by Saddletramp on 12/13/2012 04:02 PM
"And how can a man die better than facing fearful odds, for the ashes of his fathers, and the temples of his Gods..." ~ Horatius

"Because he told the truth, and once you've heard the truth, everything else is just cheap whiskey..."
Luisport

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12/14/2012 08:56 AM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
zerohedge @zerohedge 30 min
Baltic Dry 784, -1.9%. Last time we had a BDIY-SHCOMP divergence, BDIY won big
Luisport

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12/17/2012 08:11 AM

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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
zerohedge @zerohedge 2 min
BDIY down 2.3% to 766. Excess capesize ships' fault... for the 4th year in a row
Anonymous Coward
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12/17/2012 03:43 PM
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Re: BREAKING - Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
baltic dry index 766 647 here we come [link to www.dryships.com]

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