Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 14 Dec 2012 06:00 to Sat 15 Dec 2012 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 13 Dec 2012 20:33
Forecaster: TUSCHY
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A diffluent cyclogenesis affects far NW Europe with mid-level cold air spreading rapidly east towards France and UK. Induced more zonal flow pattern results in rising height fields over SW Europe and keeps this area stable convective-wise. However, intense rain affects Portugal/NW Spain with abundant subtropical moisture spreading ashore. Weak lapse rates keep the main bulk of precipitation non-convective and therefore no level area will be added.
Cold and stable conditions continue over E-Europe.

The main show for some deep convection arises over the NE Atlantic within the highlighted areas. We issued a low probability lightning area due to missing LL convergence foci despite some marginal better chances along the westward facing coasts. Onshore moving thunderstorms may pose a local strong wind and marginal hail risk, but those storms become rapidly detached from the moist maritime BL which results in a fast onshore weakening trend.

A few storms may also evolve over NW Italy during the latter part of the night, but limited CAPE precludes anything severe.

[link to www.estofex.org]