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Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes

 
Rain-Man
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12/16/2012 01:26 PM
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Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes, Stanford geophysicists say

Although Caldwell emphasized that his research focuses on imaging the fault, not on predicting earthquakes, he noted that the MHT has historically been responsible for a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake every several hundred years.

"What we're observing doesn't bear on where we are in the earthquake cycle, but it has implications in predicting earthquake magnitude," Caldwell said. "From our imaging, the ramp location is a bit farther north than has been previously observed, which would create a larger rupture width and a larger magnitude earthquake."

"We think that the big thrust vault will probably rupture southward to the Earth's surface, but we don't expect significant rupture north of there," Klemperer said. The findings are important for creating risk assessments and disaster plans for the heavily populated cities in the region.

[link to news.stanford.edu]
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 01:28 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Measuring small tremors in the Pacific Northwest

The Cascadia subduction zone, which stretches from northern California to Vancouver Island, has not experienced a major seismic event since it ruptured in 1700, an 8.7–9.2 magnitude earthquake that shook the region and created a tsunami that reached Japan. And while many geophysicists believe the fault is due for a similar scale event, the relative lack of any earthquake data in the Pacific Northwest makes it difficult to predict how ground motion from a future event would propagate in the Cascadia area, which runs through Seattle, Portland and Vancouver.

"We can't predict when an earthquake will occur, but we can try to be very prepared for them," Baltay said. "Looking at these episodic tremor events can help us constrain what the ground motion might be like in a certain place during an earthquake."

[link to news.stanford.edu]
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 01:31 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Cascadia quake simulations

The slow slip and tremor events in Cascadia are also being studied by Stanford geophysics Professor Paul Segall, although in an entirely different manner. Segall's group uses computational models of the region to determine whether the cumulative effects of many small events can trigger a major earthquake.

"You have these small events every 15 months or so, and a magnitude 9 earthquake every 500 years. We need to known whether you want to raise an alert every time one of these small events happens," Segall said. "We're doing sophisticated numerical calculations to simulate these slow events and see whether they do relate to big earthquakes over time. What our calculations have shown is that ultimately these slow events do evolve into the ultimate fast event, and it does this on a pretty short time scale."

One thing that makes Segall's work difficult is a lack of data from actual earthquakes in the Cascadia region. Earlier this year, however, earthquakes in Mexico and Costa Rica occurred in areas that experience slow slip events similar to those in Cascadia. Segall plans to speak with geophysicists who have studied the lead-up to those earthquakes to compare the data to his simulations.

[link to news.stanford.edu]
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 01:35 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Great Nepalese quake of 1255 points to Himalayan risk

Experts from Nepal, France and Singapore mapped deposits of river sediment displaced along part of the fault line where the Indian subcontinent slams into the Asia tectonic plate at up to 50 millimetres (1.97 inches) per year. With the help of carbon dating, they found that the soil movement in one place was caused by a huge quake that coincided with the great event of July 7 1255. More than six centuries later, there was another surface-breaking event, correlating to a magnitude 8.2-event in 1934. The finding is important because until now there had been no evidence of surface ruptures from the collision of these plates.

December 16, 2012 A mega-quake in 1255 that wrecked the Nepalese capital, wiped out a third of the population of Kathmandu Valley and killed the country's monarch, King Abhaya Malla, was of a kind that may return to the Himalayas, seismologists reported on Sunday.

Surface ruptures are not only extremely violent—they also tend to release most or all of the accumulated strain. "Blind" quakes are ones that do not break the surface, and tend to be more frequent.

[link to phys.org]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 12/16/2012 01:35 PM
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 01:43 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Seismic Hazard and Mitigation
Activities in Nepal - with Emphasis
on Kathmandu Valley
B.N. Upreti and Masaru Yoshida

[link to saarc-sdmc.nic.in]
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 01:49 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
The 1934 Bihar earthquake was one of the worst earthquakes in India's history. Some 30,000 people were said to have died

What are the chances of an earthquake like the 1934 one happening again? “It always is a possibility,” said Mr. Bellini. “But it can also be another 100 years.”

Mr. Bellini said that since seismology is a young science, there is not sufficient data to give accurate estimates of what the historical frequency of earthquakes is. However, he estimated that “80 years wouldn’t be an unreasonable number for recurrent rate” for large earthquakes. That falls in line with popular beliefs in Nepal.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
LindaE

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12/16/2012 01:56 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
bump
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 02:02 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Next Himalayas-Nepal EQ will probably be shallow one again and think stronger of M 7.2 + ..

Earthquake Risk Perception among Citizens in Kathmandu, Nepal

[link to www.massey.ac.nz]

[link to www.lalitpur.org.np]

Last Edited by Rain-Man on 12/16/2012 02:24 PM
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
Catastrophic Earthquakes: Will Nepal Be Next?

he climax of the collision between tectonic plates that thrust up the Himalayas, Nepal is criss-crossed by geologic fault lines -- some of which have been building up pressure for centuries. Even if it happens 185 miles away, an earthquake that measures 6 or 7 in magnitude on the Richter scale at its epicenter could generate level VIII, IX or even X level shaking on the Mercalli scale in Kathmandu.

In other words, many believe Kathmandu is overdue for more devastating shaking than the IX level disaster that flattened Haiti this January. The last time a quake like that struck here, in 1934, a quarter of all the homes in the country were destroyed, dozens of revered ancient monuments collapsed and more than 20,000 people lost their lives. The next "big one" could be much worse -- especially here in the Kathmandu Valley, a bowl that will trap and amplify the wave of energy.

"Chile has had a huge magnitude earthquake in the past, and as a medium income country it has the resources and institutions in place that have built earthquake-resistant housing and infrastructure," said Saurabh Dani, disaster management specialist for the World Bank's South Asia team. "Haiti and Nepal are both low income countries, with poor building standards, (and) even if the magnitude of the earthquake is less than the one in Chile, the impact in loss of life would be catastrophic."

Since 1997, the population of the Kathmandu Valley has doubled, from about 1.5 million people to more than 3 million. Of more serious concern, the population density has also increased dramatically. Each year, between 10,000 and 20,000 new buildings mushroom, most of them constructed with little more than a wink and a nod to the building code, with higher floors built off the books, concrete watered down to save on material, structural columns eliminated and emergency exits ignored. When the big one comes, two-thirds of them will collapse, and the casualty rate will be high.

"The density of the population in each household has seen dramatic growth, so the lethality of the earthquake will be much higher (than we once expected)," said Dixit. "Our estimate (of 10 years ago) of 40,000 dead and 100,000 people injured and requiring hospitalization could easily be doubled -- or make it two-and-a-half times or three times."

[link to www.huffingtonpost.com]
Rain-Man (OP)

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12/16/2012 02:23 PM
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Re: Himalayas and Pacific Northwest could experience major earthquakes
1988 Nepal earthquake

1988 Nepal earthquake occurred in 1988 in Nepal near the Indian border, affecting much of northern Bihar. The magnitude 6.6 earthquake shook the region on August 21, 1988, killing about 1467 persons (282 in India and 900 in Nepal) and injuring more than 16,000. The earthquake struck in two installments of 10 seconds and 15 seconds each and left cracks in 50,000 buildings, including Raj Bhavan and the old Secretariat Building in Patna, Bihar.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

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