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ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 05:39 PM
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ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Visual characteristics
D - A bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends of
the group. Longitudinal extent does not exceeds 10 deg.

k - large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere.

o - open. Few, if any, spots between leader and follower. Interior spots of very small size. Class E and F groups of 'open' category are equivalent to Zurich class G.

Updates every 15 min if active.
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 05:47 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Look:

[link to www.helioviewer.org]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/18/2012 05:50 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
I am talking about the spot that is one the left. Are you trying to tell me something about the image?
1908247

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12/18/2012 05:51 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
bump
- ? Nus.

-You Hold Witness I Witness

As if he could, by himself, say:
_Alive, therefore life itself.
Uncle Alyosha

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12/18/2012 06:09 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Visual characteristics
D - A bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends of
the group. Longitudinal extent does not exceeds 10 deg.

k - large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere.

o - open. Few, if any, spots between leader and follower. Interior spots of very small size. Class E and F groups of 'open' category are equivalent to Zurich class G.

Updates every 15 min if active.
 Quoting: Selume Proferre


Never knew about that website. Pin, of course. 5 stars. And, oh crap!
Best Wishes,
Uncle Alyosha

And here's a GLP-appropriate Bible verse (atheists may read, too):

God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise, God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong.

- 1 Corinthians 1:27
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 06:16 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
when we were watching the live feed for the search on nibiru. they mentioned a big CME had erupted recently and could be heading our way...

spock
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 06:29 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Where do you see 41%?
California Jessers

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12/18/2012 06:33 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Now it says 41%...didn't a few minutes ago
Love looks forward, hate looks back, anxiety has eyes all over its head.
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 07:29 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Hmmm, so the sun doom was probable. Oh well, at least the I-phone will die, which is good since it's most responsible for the dumbing down of the so-called civilized world.
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 07:36 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Visual characteristics
D - A bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends of
the group. Longitudinal extent does not exceeds 10 deg.

k - large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere.

o - open. Few, if any, spots between leader and follower. Interior spots of very small size. Class E and F groups of 'open' category are equivalent to Zurich class G.

Updates every 15 min if active.
 Quoting: Selume Proferre


Nice catch OP hf
Citratox

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12/18/2012 07:57 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
burnit
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12/18/2012 08:22 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
eq
littlemiracles

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12/18/2012 08:24 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Solar cataclysm...

[link to www.theverge.com]
Just

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12/18/2012 08:25 PM

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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
EMERGING SUNSPOT: Solar activity has been low for weeks. Would adding a new sunspot change the situation?

[link to spaceweather.com]
The Dudester

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12/18/2012 08:34 PM

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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Emmmmm. Shin This Pit !
"Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes the bar, well it eats you."
Anonymous Coward
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12/18/2012 08:38 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Only 1% chance of a X Flare, fucking hell people post the facts.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/18/2012 08:41 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
Have you looked at my source or can you post a source that updates more often than mine (15 min)? (I assume you are using SWPC's or NOAA's predictions).
Just

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12/18/2012 08:44 PM

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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
pin this
Just

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12/18/2012 08:44 PM

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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
bump

Last Edited by Just on 12/18/2012 08:45 PM
Anonymous Coward
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
The whole thing about Doom is that we are at Risk. Nobody actually knows what is gonna happen.

They only know that we are going through a danger period.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/18/2012 09:58 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
clappa

The GLP effect has worked! We're down to 1% chance of X! Solar doom is off for now.
Uncle Alyosha
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12/18/2012 10:06 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
clappa

The GLP effect has worked! We're down to 1% chance of X! Solar doom is off for now.
 Quoting: Selume Proferre


Uhm, not so fast, OP. Doesn't it seem odd that the chances suddenly go from 41% to 1%? It could be the TPTB noticed they were being honest about the situation and intervened.

Or maybe sun doom will in fact wait for another time...
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/18/2012 10:52 PM
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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
The model analyzes the visual appearance of the sunspots and the results may have been skewed by the angle since the sunspot was still getting out into our view. At least this was hopefully the case.
NiNzrez

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12/19/2012 12:12 AM

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Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded.
the % changes each 2 min as it updates and the sunspots change and morph

from the bradford website:
"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server"

here is the link to the SDO website that Bradford uses for their solar flare % site
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

sometimes we can see the % chance rise and fall quite drasticly with each update (2 min)
all depending on the movment seen within each earth facing sunspot region
some sunspots are very active and have a lot of movment within them
others are still, quiet and quite boring
sunspots 1633, 1634 and 1635 are all sunspots to watch very close

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/19/2012 12:24 AM
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