ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. | |
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Uncle Alyosha User ID: 30250870 United States 12/18/2012 06:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. [link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk] Quoting: Selume Proferre Visual characteristics D - A bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends of the group. Longitudinal extent does not exceeds 10 deg. k - large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere. o - open. Few, if any, spots between leader and follower. Interior spots of very small size. Class E and F groups of 'open' category are equivalent to Zurich class G. Updates every 15 min if active. Never knew about that website. Pin, of course. 5 stars. And, oh crap! Best Wishes, Uncle Alyosha And here's a GLP-appropriate Bible verse (atheists may read, too): God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise, God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong. - 1 Corinthians 1:27 |
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Anonymous Coward User ID: 28312124 United States 12/18/2012 07:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. Hmmm, so the sun doom was probable. Oh well, at least the I-phone will die, which is good since it's most responsible for the dumbing down of the so-called civilized world. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 30241306 United States 12/18/2012 07:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. [link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk] Quoting: Selume Proferre Visual characteristics D - A bipolar sunspot group with penumbra on both ends of the group. Longitudinal extent does not exceeds 10 deg. k - large, assymetric. Same structure as type 'a', but north-south diameter of penumbra is more than 2.5 degrees. Area, therefore, must be larger or equal than 250 millionths solar hemisphere. o - open. Few, if any, spots between leader and follower. Interior spots of very small size. Class E and F groups of 'open' category are equivalent to Zurich class G. Updates every 15 min if active. Nice catch OP |
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Just User ID: 30273311 Brazil 12/18/2012 08:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. EMERGING SUNSPOT: Solar activity has been low for weeks. Would adding a new sunspot change the situation? [link to spaceweather.com] |
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Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 22952786 United States 12/18/2012 08:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. Have you looked at my source or can you post a source that updates more often than mine (15 min)? (I assume you are using SWPC's or NOAA's predictions). |
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Just User ID: 30273311 Brazil 12/18/2012 08:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 15740069 United States 12/18/2012 08:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. The whole thing about Doom is that we are at Risk. Nobody actually knows what is gonna happen. They only know that we are going through a danger period. |
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Uncle Alyosha User ID: 30283903 United States 12/18/2012 10:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. The GLP effect has worked! We're down to 1% chance of X! Solar doom is off for now. Uhm, not so fast, OP. Doesn't it seem odd that the chances suddenly go from 41% to 1%? It could be the TPTB noticed they were being honest about the situation and intervened. Or maybe sun doom will in fact wait for another time... |
Anonymous Coward (OP) User ID: 22952786 United States 12/18/2012 10:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. The model analyzes the visual appearance of the sunspots and the results may have been skewed by the angle since the sunspot was still getting out into our view. At least this was hopefully the case. |
NiNzrez User ID: 28232082 United States 12/19/2012 12:12 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Re: ALERT! Real time solar forecasting system used by NASA had predicted 41% chance of an X-flare of 1635 that just became visible, just downgraded. the % changes each 2 min as it updates and the sunspots change and morph from the bradford website: "How does flare monitor work? Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server" here is the link to the SDO website that Bradford uses for their solar flare % site [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] sometimes we can see the % chance rise and fall quite drasticly with each update (2 min) all depending on the movment seen within each earth facing sunspot region some sunspots are very active and have a lot of movment within them others are still, quiet and quite boring sunspots 1633, 1634 and 1635 are all sunspots to watch very close Last Edited by NiNzrez on 12/19/2012 12:24 AM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |