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Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101

The Mad Wizard
User ID: 536600
United States
12/22/2012 09:59 AM
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Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101
From Sandy Hook to the Mayan calender, one thing is clear when it comes to the thinking on GLP.

People forget the simple maxim of Occam's razor. For those that have forgotten it, here's a thumbnail with a few examples.

When trying to find the answer to something that has several possibilities presented, the least complicated one is usually correct.

What does that mean?

Well, let's look at the Mayan Calender first.

The Mayans say that the end of the calender has no particular meaning, any more than December 31rst being the end of the world. In fact, outside of conspiracy theorists and New Age Doomsayers, no one says that it would.

And so far, those people have always been wrong.

So the conclusion? Naturally, it was and still is, that the Mayans did not say the world was going to end.

In regards to Sandy Hook:

Many have noticed dependencies in the story, and using the same techniques they would if information was coming from only one unified source, they cry foul.

The fact is however, given the size of the story, that we had tens of thousands of data points and hundreds of individuals involved with putting information out. Including some that would have said anything to seem like they knew what was going on at the time, when events were first taking place.

This means there were thousands of opportunities to make mistakes. Including ones in interpreting the data given on the part of each of us!

How was the "dead" Principle interviewed? She wasn't. Someone confused some names one a sheet of paper and another person put it into print, moving too fast for good fact checking is the most likely case. That's not even a good conspiracy at all, just lazy and rushed work by a person that was probably freaking out.

Or, it's also possible that someone tried to give their opinion and was misheard. We all know that never happens, right? Just every day of out lives when dealing with people that want to hear what helps them...

So the simple explanation there? It was most likely an error.

Now, this doesn't mean there are no conspiracies in life. We know for a fact that there are and some have been admitted long after the fact.

But not everything is part of a grand plot, because it would take resources that no one needs to spend in order to make it happen.

Or look at the idea that Global Warming is a "hoax". The planet keeps heating up, and all the signs show that the crowd denying the idea is simply incorrect. But, like the groups proclaiming that no one ever walked on the moon or that the Earth is flat, they have to claim that most of science is lying to them in order to make that happen.

People do not deal well with very large, complex and long term "lies". We would have hundreds, if not thousands of Climate scientists coming out to tell us it was a hoax if the data didn't match up. Not all of them are getting these mythical big cars and swimming pools from their work after all.

But those people don't exist.

There is no avalanche of scientists from inside the system coming to let us know that we're being fooled and there would be if it were the case.

All we have are some fringe people that hold different, clearly incorrect, ideas beating the drum, loudly, and making accusations without any proof.

So, that means?

That Global Warming is likely a fact.

Like it or not, and who really does? So the most reasonable course is to act on that information.

The simplest answer is normally the one most likely to be correct.

That's the basic ideas for dummies. When in doubt look at things reasonably and don't imagine that a large group of super powerful people is out there controlling everything. Because if they were...

They'd be better at it and you wouldn't see the obvious gaps in what they were doing.

*This in no way means you shouldn't investigate and think about things for yourself! Just remember that in doing so that with a few leaps in thought you can make almost anything fit into place, and more, your conscious mind is a natural storyteller. This is how you naturally think, to the tendency is always there to make things fit into a pattern, even if you have to force it a bit.

Merry Christmas and please, make the effort to think whenever you can.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 30594273
12/22/2012 10:05 AM
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Re: Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101
You sir have a good brain,

Your story also explains why God and mohammed are always depicted with a very long beard...

They are frightned like hell that Ockhams razor would be in the neighbourhood and give them a good shave
Red Hot Chilean Pepe

User ID: 30635371
12/22/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101
Occam forgot that truth is truth no matter what one may think or believe. I'm not saying that GLPers have it right either, just that I've always found the logic behind Occam's razor to be faulty, at best.
All great truths begin as Blasphemies.

GLP is like a diamond mine of information, in the sense that you have to shovel mountains of crap to find the diamonds, but it's still worth the pain.
Anonymous Coward
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12/22/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101
"The simplest answer is normally the one most likely to be correct."


If that were true, then our simplest guesses about the world back 2000 years ago should have been correct.

The fact is that nature and the world are a lot more complex than you realise, and there's new stuff to discover everyday.

Occam's razor is anti-progress.
Anonymous Coward
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12/22/2012 10:20 AM
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Re: Occam's Shaving Kit: Thinking for Dummies 101
Occam's razor is basically the simplest answer is best but when dealing with the nefarious shadow type people this does not apply.

Using terms like Occam's razor make you feel like warm jelly inside and makes one feel like your knowledgeable and powerful when in fact by using logic arguments you miss some pretty important information.

I agree a lot of things people say have no truth but a lot of good research is done but people like you seem to ignore it.

You talk about global warming yet you fail to mention that government scientist were caught red handed lying or even the fact that the polar bears drowning from AL gore was stolen from a woman who took the pics in the summer time but that fact was conveniently left out by gore cause of an agenda.