Christmas weather storm updates: 6 deaths,40+homes damaged with "numerous injuries !!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z is cold. All of Lower-48 would have a below-freezing temp Sunday morning, if Florida manages to join up. [link to twitter.com]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

GFS 00z run last night ( l) vis tonight. more pronounced snow in Ok/Ark and SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER NE WITH HEAVY SNOW [link to twitter.com]

There is a legitimate threat for severe weather on Christmas Day, something that should not be taken lightly. The Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather over the Gulf Coast, but probabilities of severe weather over Louisiana and Mississippi show a 30% chance of severe weather- something seen in the spring, not the winter.

The 500mb wind forecast from the NAM model on Christmas Day shows a strong storm system in Oklahoma, with winds surpassing 90 knots. Notice how the winds are also tilting to the southeast. This tilt means the storm system is negatively tilted. In a negatively tilted system, cold air is able to flow more freely aloft, meaning higher instability and higher chances for severe weather.

The 700mb winds show a very strong value of over 60 knots present over Texas and Louisiana. The presence of very high winds in the lower level jet stream only significantly increases the threat of severe weather and tornadic thunderstorms. Considering the high gradient of dewpoints, it does appear that these storms will form along a dry line (high gradient of moisture). Drylines are commonly the focus of severe storms in the spring, so we could very well be dealing with spring-type severe weather.

Such a situation needs to be closely monitored, as, if these forecasts verify, lives and property could be threatened.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT VICKSBURG AND JACKSON MS ON TUESDAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHES 60 KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. A THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 KT POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE LINE. IF A WELL-DEVELOPED AND FAST MOVING SQUALL-LINE
ORGANIZES...THEN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Last night, Reno, Nev. reached a peak wind gust of 58 mph as a cold front moved through the area.

Not looking good for my area [link to montgomery.raycomweather.com]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-241200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCO TT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ICING IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING TOTALS FROM I-55 EASTWARD.
CURRENTLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN ILLINOIS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-241200-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCO TT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
311 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ICING IS ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH INCREASING TOTALS FROM I-55 EASTWARD.
CURRENTLY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN ILLINOIS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

Above are the four major models' snowfall forecasts for the December 25-27 significant winter storm. All 4 models go out to 120 hours, except for the NAM, which can only go out to 84 hours.

The ECMWF and GFS appear to have a good handle on the snowfall. The ECMWF's snow is not showing up as significantly, because the site where this was gotten from (WeatherBell) derives the snow from precipitation forecasts, meaning they use a different algorithm to get snowfall forecasts from that model. Getting the real algorithm requires a LOT of money.

The GEM model is off in its own world, typical of one of the worse models in the forecasting industry. The NAM is heavier with the snow in the Midwest than the GFS or ECMWF models are. This is to be expected, however, considering the NAM has a colder and wetter bias than other models (a.k.a. it overestimates snow).

Personally, I'm thinking the GFS has a good solution going, mainly because the GEM is unreliable, the NAM always overestimates snowfall, and the ECMWF snowfall forecast isn't showing up correctly for some reason.

[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Another storm before New Year should have heaviest snow south of the track of this in the east, may be similar in southern plains

56 minJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

left GFS yesterday middle GFS now swinging back to weatherbell idea from Friday on s plains to ne winter storm! [link to twitter.com]

When do we ever see this on a day 2 outlook? [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] Also a pretty significant threat Wednesday for the Carolinas, SPC mentioning the threat of tornadoes again, although I think tomorrow has more potential. [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF
350 TO 400 M2/S2 SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL MS INTO WCNTRL AL BY TUESDAY EVENING.
INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY MCS THAT
BECOMES WELL-ORGANIZED COULD CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON...LONG TRACK TORNADOES COULD OCCUR
WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY.

IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SQUALL-LINE...THEN A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

Potential winter storm boxing day into Thursday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Current indications suggest that a low pressure system will develop
over Texas on Christmas day and then move northeastward to pass south
of the Great Lakes region late in the day boxing day into Thursday.
Such a storm track would place Southern Ontario on the cold side of
the storm, with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations.

Present indications suggest that the snow would start in the
southwest during the day on boxing day, and then spread eastward to
reach Eastern Ontario later in the evening. In addition, gusty
northeast winds would result in local blowing snow reducing
visibilities. Conditions should improve from west to east on
Thursday.

It should be emphasized that this storm has yet to develop and the
track of the storm may alter. Thus it is still much too early to
forecast precipitation amounts. The public is strongly advised to
monitor future forecasts for more information regarding this
potential winter storm.

End

Hey Luisport can you tell me what to expect in my area. 70769

you can see it here: [link to freemeteo.com]

considering I live in a mobile home on the TX/La border right on the gulf not looking forward to this. hopefully it doesn't ruin Christmas for my kids. as long as nobody gets hurt I'm ok with losing lights and such. In my area we are so use to storms it's not even an event anymore. Merry Christmas to all

NWSBayArea‏@NWSBayArea

24 hour rainfall totals: [link to nwschat.weather.gov (secure)] … #bayarearain

Take care!!!

told you so, sheep

Thread: December 25, 2012. Phoenix, Arizona WILL BE NUKED!!!!! FALSE FLAG for WW3, 100% VERY VERY IMPORTANT!!!!!!!!!!!

nam 5am 84 hr snowfall totals [link to wxcaster4.com] gfs 5:30am 120 hr snowfall totals [link to wxcaster4.com]

SPC has added a 5% tornado risk on today's outlook for the possibility of storms tonight that will strengthen into tomorrow and become the big wind and tornado producers.
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


...ERN TX INTO CNTRL/SRN LA TONIGHT...

TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF LOWER MS VALLEY DISTURBANCE
WILL STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING CAP AND EFFECTIVELY INHIBIT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DECELERATING COLD
FRONT. TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SSWLY LLJ WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE
NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE POLEWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE PROCESSES WILL COINCIDE
WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING RAPID AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AS EARLY AS 25/02Z-03Z TO
THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT GRADUALLY
OVERCOME THE CAP. STORMS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT FURTHER STRENGTHENS IN EXIT
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE
HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT.

THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS...IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 25/09Z-12Z ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID
60S PROMOTE MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2
AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE/ROTATION. DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EVOLVING LINE
SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES.

FOLKS..PLEASE HEED THE WARNINGS..STAY SAFE......................SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FROM EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE
IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING
THE DAY WITH SOME TORNADOES POSSIBLY STRONG. IN ADDITION...LARGE
HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS LIKELY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OUT WEST ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH...LARGE
HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>066-072>074-251045-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT- NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER- CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
DAY AND EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO JACKSON
AND DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A
FEW STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040> 042-251045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOM ERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HO LMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
433 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COMPLEX AND STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE REGION
CHRISTMAS DAY. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OF
TWO TO THREE INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS COLDER AIR
SURGES SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM...RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82 TUESDAY NIGHT...ENDING AS FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL BE NEEDED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN.

3 hJames Spann ‏@spann

A detailed look at the Christmas major severe weather threat for Alabama. Please read and share [link to www.alabamawx.com] #alwx

22 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado OUTBREAK expected tomorrow for Gulf coast states: [link to kamala.cod.edu] Be prepared!

26 mSevere Studios‏@severestudios

Tornado threat today east TX, west LA: [link to kamala.cod.edu]

ABC7 News‏@abc7newsBayArea

PG&E Power Outage Update: North Bay - 1,075, East Bay - 288, Peninsula - 517, South Bay - 18, Central Coast – 376, all power restored in SF.

This reminds me of the april 14-16 outbreak. NAM for tomorrow significant tornado parameter: [link to www.jamesspann.com]

Has the extremely damaging squall line/ broken line of tornadic supercells question been resolved yet?

SPC says an broken mcs line could maintain multiple strong tornadoes. A linear mode could promote extremely damaging winds.
Also models trending nw again