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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport

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12/23/2012 04:34 PM

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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Polar Vortex Collapse, Arctic Freeze Imminent
By Andrew at 9:24 AM The model forecasts above both show big high pressure centers interrupting the polar vortex and splitting it into two pieces. Such a split exemplifies the traditional weakening of the polar vortex. When that polar vortex is weakened, the cold air locked up in said polar vortex flows south, possibly into North America, maybe into the US. This is a very good sign coming from the models at this point in time to go along with the stratospheric observations.

Continuing with watching the models, we turn to a charted forecast of the ECMWF model. I want you to look at the bottom image, called the EP Flux. In short, the EP flux shows the direction and strength (shown by length of arrow) that air moves into the stratosphere. In events where warm air enters the stratosphere, long, extended arrows are commonly seen. The forecast into the days before New Year's Day show a batch of extended arrow motions, suggesting a large motion of warming may be incoming into the stratosphere. This enhanced EP Flux would theoretically enhance warming potentials in the Arctic, thus further weakening the Polar Vortex. I find it likely that the aforementioned 50mb wave over East Asia would be to blame for this rise in EP Flux values.... [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de] Posted 30 September 2012 - 00:42


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Welcome to the new season stratosphere thread for the 2012/2013 stratospheric NH winter.

With the excitement building and expectations high for the coming winter, the role of the polar stratosphere will play an important part in determining what type of winter we shall have.

As ever for those new to the stratospheric input I will include in this post a basic guide to how the stratosphere may influence tropospherical weather systems before looking at what we can expect this winter.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly above the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere that is directly responsible for the weather that we receive. The boundary between the stratosphere and the troposphere is known as the tropopause. The air pressure ranges from around 100hPa at the lower levels of the stratosphere to around 1hPa at the upper levels. The middle stratosphere is often considered to be around the 30hPa level.

Every winter the stratosphere cools down dramatically as less solar UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone content in the stratosphere. The difference in the temperature between the North Pole and the latitudes further south creates a strong vortex – the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The colder the stratosphere, the stronger this vortex becomes. The stratospheric vortex has a strong relationship with the tropospheric vortex below. The stronger the stratospheric vortex, the stronger the tropospheric vortex becomes.

The strength and position of the tropospheric vortex influences the type of weather that we are likely to experience. A strong polar vortex is more likely to herald a positive AO with the resultant jet stream track bringing warmer wet southwesterly winds. A weaker polar vortex can contribute to a negative AO with the resultant mild wet weather tracking further south.



The stratosphere is a far more stable environment then the troposphere below it. However, there are certain influences that can bring about changes - the stratospheric ozone content, the phase of the solar cycle, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation ( the QBO), wave breaking events from the troposphere and the autumnal Eurasion/Siberian snow cover to name but a few.

The ozone content in the polar stratosphere has been shown to be destroyed by CFC's permeating to the stratosphere from the troposphere but there can be other influences as well. Ozone is important because it absorbs UV radiation which creates warming of the stratosphere. The Ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere by a system known as the Brewer-Dobson -Circulation. The strength of this circulation varies from year to year and can in turn be dictated by other influences.

One of these influences is the QBO. This is a tropical stratospheric wind that descends in an easterly then westerly direction over a period of around 28 months. This can have a direct influence on the strength of the polar vortex in itself. The easterly (negative ) phase is though to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. However, in reality the exact timing and positioning of the QBO is not precise and the timing of the descending wave is critical throughout the winter.

The direction of the QBO when combined with the level of solar flux has been shown to influence the BDC. When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events (increased strength BDC) in the stratosphere as there is during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum. ( [link to strat-www.met...-et-al-2006.pdf] )

The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has been in an easterly phase since August 2011 ( [link to www.esrl.noaa...lation] The easterly phase is likely to come to an end at 30 hPa over the coming winter, however, even after this we are likely to see easterly winds descend the stratosphere spreading polewards for some time yet.

The easterly QBO winds can be demonstrated on the following zonal wind stratospheric profile chart:





One warming event that can occur in the stratospheric winter is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming ( SSW) or also known as a Major Midwinter Warming (MMW). This as the name suggests a rather dramatic event. Normally the polar night jet at the boundary of the polar vortex demarcates the boundary between warmer tropical and cooler polar stratospheric air (and ozone levels) and is very difficult to penetrate. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. These waves can introduce warmer temperatures into the polar stratosphere and can seriously disrupt the stratospheric vortex, leading to a slowing or even reversal of the vortex. This can occur by the vortex being displaced off the pole – a displacement SSW, or by the vortex being split in two – a splitting SSW.

The effects of a SSW can be transmitted into the troposphere as the propagation of the SSW occurs and this can have a number of consequences. There is a higher incidence of northern blocking after SSW’s but we are all aware that not every SSW leads to northern blocking. Any northern blocking can lead to cold air from the tropospheric Arctic flooding south and colder conditions to latitudes further south can ensue. There is often thought to be a time lag between a SSW and northern blocking from any downward propagation of negative mean zonal winds from the stratosphere. This has been quoted as up to 6 weeks though it can be a lot quicker if the polar vortex is ripped in two following a split SSW.

One noticeable aspect of the recent previous winters is how the stratosphere has been susceptible to wave breaking from the troposphere through the lower reaches of the polar stratosphere - not over the top as seen in the SSWs. This has led to periods of sustained tropospheric high latitude blocking and repeated lower disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. This has coincided with a warmer stratosphere where the mean zonal winds have been reduced and has led to some of the most potent winter spells witnessed in recent years.

So the question to be asked is are we able to predict how the stratosphere is likely to behave this year. The real answer is not yet, though there are some aspects that we can use as a guide looking at previous years.

The most useful of these is the easterly descending QBO. We know that the stratospheric polar vortex is a lot weaker in easterly years and more susceptible to disruption. Combine this with what is in effect a low solar maximum then this may enhance this effect. See post from GP in last thread regarding analogue year 1968-69

I have been collecting relavent papers regarding the role of the stratosphere and other influences and they can be found here - [link to forum.netweat...nective-papers]

I am starting this thread earlier than normal because of the increased importance that has been placed on the role of the stratosphere since I first monitored a few years back. Rather than being viewed as a small piece in the jigsaw, it is being realised that the state of the stratosphere can/may overrule all other teleconnective pieces. Last years cold stratosphere demonstrated this only too well.

So it is eyes down (or up!) in the coming weeks to monitor how the polar stratosphere cools and what affect this has on the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex.

There are a number of sites that provide information regarding this.

Firstly, the two important sites that can be used to look at the temperature profiles are:

[link to acdb-ext.gsfc...t]

and

[link to www.cpc.ncep....re]

Graphically and previous years information :

[link to www.cpc.ncep....ere]

and

[link to www.geo.fu-be...pole]

Forecasts:

[link to wekuw.met.fu-...]

and

[link to www.cpc.ncep....here]

and not forgetting!

[link to www.netweathe...atosphere;sess=] (more available on nw extra!)


So, as ever, we have a lot to keep an eye on. Early indications suggest that the polar stratosphere is cooling pretty much as expected. I am happy to report that there are already signs that this cooling is not uniform, with a Canadian warming a possibility this autumn. It's early days to see a slightly warmer area, but the GFS forecast does suggest this-



An early heartener!

Happy strat watching fellow strat watchers!

c [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/13/2013 12:34 PM
Luisport (OP)

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12/23/2012 04:35 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
My friends the polar vortex collapse is predicted to the first 10 days of January.. anyone can tell what can happen with this big event? Thank you so much!
 Quoting: Luisport


stormy
Cumulonimbus
Mensagens: 4,166 There for the first 8-10 days of January the models are in agreement with an episode of disintegration of the polar vortex, inducing an AO - it is possible that in January, especially after the first week, one month is very active and variable, with several episodes of various types of weather. [link to www.meteopt.com]
Da fuq

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12/23/2012 04:37 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
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12/23/2012 04:39 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
That's a tad frightening Luis.
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Anonymous Coward
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Arctic DOOM 5a flick
Luisport (OP)

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12/23/2012 04:41 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
That's a tad frightening Luis.
 Quoting: Chip


yes this is very very bad... at least it seams so
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
does this include europe too my portugese friend?
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
No winter last year,i say bring it !
Luisport (OP)

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12/23/2012 04:46 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
does this include europe too my portugese friend?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1380857


yes for shure! If a total collapse happen i think we can see negative temp in the north africa
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is related with this event, polar vortex is allready bring massive polar temp to Asia Thread: Historical Asian cold-vortex will test -70°F in 5-days!!!
1908247

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?

Last Edited by 1908247 on 12/23/2012 04:50 PM
- ? Nus.

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
That's a tad frightening Luis.
 Quoting: Chip


flashingthis
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here is what I have gathered:

-Current stratospheric temperatures are at average values.
-A strong warming event looks to occur at the end of December.
-Very elevated EP Flux forecasts enhance such a warming potential.
-The polar vortex will become displaced as a response.
-High pressure forms over the Arctic, further messing up the polar vortex.
-AAM QBO values are already turning positive, increasing the potential for the permanent warming event to switch winter to spring later on in 2013.

All of the factors above combined, severe damage looks to be done to the polar vortex. I can envision a partial collapse of the vortex occurring, which would only lead to enhanced cold outbreaks in the United States. I am not confident on this collapse occurring, but if there is a best time for such a collapse to happen, it could be coming up at the end of this year.

Keep a sharp eye out for prolonged cold weather if these forecasts by the ECMWF and GFS verify.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


OMG putin

The farside of the sun is increasingly restless. On Dec. 21st, multiple CMEs flew over the edge of the solar disk, and today NASA's STEREO-A spacecraft observed a filament erupting on the farside.
This activity suggests that the long-term forecast could be stormy. In one to two weeks, active regions currently on the farside will turn toward Earth.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?
 Quoting: 1908247


Yes. Just about.
Da fuq

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?
 Quoting: 1908247


Yes. Just about.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I've heard countless times and seen things pointing to the sun not acting as it should during this cycle.

suspicious0bservers has done many videos on the matter.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 12/23/2012 04:54 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
hmmmm snow in california maybe?
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe.
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
hmmmm snow in california maybe?
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Bay Area snow will be nice.
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
That's a tad frightening Luis.
 Quoting: Chip


yes this is very very bad... at least it seams so
 Quoting: Luisport

does seem ominous. sounds very cold at the least.
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
...


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?
 Quoting: 1908247


Yes. Just about.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I've heard countless times and seen things pointing to the sun not acting as it should during this cycle.
 Quoting: Da fuq


It's just weaker than thought and there is more filaments than usual. That's about it.
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?
 Quoting: 1908247


this has nothing to do with sun activity...
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
does this include europe too my portugese friend?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1380857


yes for shure! If a total collapse happen i think we can see negative temp in the north africa
 Quoting: Luisport

damned that really sux.
Artaius
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well, Russia is already facing heavy minus temperatures... maybe harbingers of more to come.

Last Edited by A r c on 12/23/2012 04:56 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well, Russia is already facing heavy minus temperatures... maybe harbingers of more to come.
 Quoting: Artaius


so imagine if this happen now, in US and Europe will be thousands of deaths!
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
does this include europe too my portugese friend?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1380857


yes for shure! If a total collapse happen i think we can see negative temp in the north africa
 Quoting: Luisport


shocked

this truly is one of the most frightening posts I've read on GLP for a while. Doomier than mayan doom.

How reliable are the sources Louis? Do you check them often, do they usually predict weather patterns correctly?
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
The peak in solar activity is predicted for early to mid 2013. The space-based X-Ray Telescope (XRT) aka Hinode mission has been fixated on the Sun for years and the increase in activity is truly stunning.

NASA source

(translation - they know shit)
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Will this affect California Luisport?
Da fuq

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
...


Yeah, supposeddly, but regardless of the sun cycles definition, the far side of the Sun is pretty active right now and should be facing Earth in about 2 to 3 weeks, right?
 Quoting: 1908247


Yes. Just about.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I've heard countless times and seen things pointing to the sun not acting as it should during this cycle.
 Quoting: Da fuq


It's just weaker than thought and there is more filaments than usual. That's about it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


First time though during minimum or maximum that the sun has done this? What about the effect on the other planets? Jupiter losings strips spots/ rotations speeding up ect.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 12/23/2012 05:03 PM
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
does this include europe too my portugese friend?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1380857


yes for shure! If a total collapse happen i think we can see negative temp in the north africa
 Quoting: Luisport


shocked

this truly is one of the most frightening posts I've read on GLP for a while. Doomier than mayan doom.

How reliable are the sources Louis? Do you check them often, do they usually predict weather patterns correctly?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18612185


The portuguese source i swere to you is very very reliable, and the US i think too
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Changes to Polar Vortex affect mile-deep ocean circulation patterns

Sept. 23, 2012 – A University of Utah study suggests something amazing: Periodic changes in winds 15 to 30 miles high in the stratosphere influence the seas by striking a vulnerable “Achilles heel” in the North Atlantic and changing mile-deep ocean circulation patterns, which in turn affect Earth’s climate.

A Vulnerable Soft Spot in the North Atlantic
“The North Atlantic is particularly important for global ocean circulation, and therefore for climate worldwide,” Reichler says. “In a region south of Greenland, which is called the downwelling region, water can get cold and salty enough – and thus dense enough – so the water starts sinking.”

It is Earth’s most important region of seawater downwelling, he adds. That sinking of cold, salty water “drives the three-dimensional oceanic conveyor belt circulation. What happens in the Atlantic also affects the other oceans.”

Reichler continues: “This area where downwelling occurs is quite susceptible to cooling or warming from the troposphere. If the water is close to becoming heavy enough to sink, then even small additional amounts of heating or cooling from the atmosphere may be imported to the ocean and either trigger downwelling events or delay them.”

Because of that sensitivity, Reichler calls the sea south of Greenland “the Achilles heel of the North Atlantic.”

The oil disaster weakened the loop current and in turn
weakened the gulf stream, this polar vortex collapse
could be the straw that breaks the camels back, in other
words completely stop the gulf stream........
The beginning of the new Ice Age
[link to arctic-news.blogspot.nl]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27577634

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