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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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12/28/2012 11:04 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport (OP)

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12/28/2012 11:06 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
killjoy27

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12/28/2012 07:03 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
killjoy27
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12/28/2012 07:18 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 06:13 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Today, 08:08


sebastiaan1973, on 29 December 2012 - 07:44 , said:


Bingo, once more. Not at the 4-1-2012 (altough by a margin!) but the fifth of januar.

Critically Sebastiaan the ECM is forecasting more of a split scenario with a further warming. This is also a propagating scenario more akin to 2009 and could deliver an easterly down the line. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 06:14 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Today, 08:19

Big upsurge in wave 2 at D10, should help to fuel a split...


Every day we are seeing the EP flux forecast becoming more favourable as well...


Finally, you would think that going fom this...


To this in just 5 days is going to send shockwaves through the atmosphere!


And with hints that the MJO could be back in the west in 2-3 weeks time, mid month onwards remains the time scale for things to start getting very interesting !
[link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 10:54 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Today, 11:12


latitude, on 29 December 2012 - 10:54 , said:


I have read through the last few pages of the thread. A couple of questions:

1. The SSW is still currently only a forecast and not something that will definately happen? (whether it propagates or not)

2. When is SSW forecast to happen, around the 4th Jan? Has this date been consistant or has it been continually pushed back or forward.


It's very likely to happen as the stratosphere is nowhere near as variable as the troposphere, so is much easier to forecast. 7 days out (the time when the SSW is expected to happen) is still a very reliable time-frame for the stratosphere.
At the moment zonal winds expected to just about still be positive at midday on the 4th of Jan, so I would say the SSW will happen on the 2nd half of the 4th of Jan or the 5th of Jan. The date has been pushed back very slightly, it's almost negligible. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 10:56 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Probably the most awesome stratospheric contrast I have ever seen. [link to shrani.si]
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 11:06 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Probably the most awesome stratospheric contrast I have ever seen. [link to shrani.si]
 Quoting: Luisport


That is amazing ..what area is that?
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 11:10 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Probably the most awesome stratospheric contrast I have ever seen. [link to shrani.si]
 Quoting: Luisport


That is amazing ..what area is that?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25423559


it's polar vortex but not split yet... Tropospheric yin\yang!
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 11:11 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Probably the most awesome stratospheric contrast I have ever seen. [link to shrani.si]
 Quoting: Luisport


yin and yang

[link to www.janeteresa.com]

blink
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 11:12 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
i don't know about you, but that scares me just a tad

wtf
shadasonic

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12/29/2012 11:15 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
oh PLEASE yourself


there wasn't a haze 24/7 in the air, the skys were blue
there wasn't any fluoride in the water (along with only the gods know what)
the plants and animals were not genetically modified

FUshima wasn't spewing leathal rads 24/7


WAKE UP, you are not living in the same environment ... you are barely even the same fucking SPECIES ...


sure we had extremely hot and cold days ---- but NOT IN THE SAME WEEK ... we called them "the storm of the century" ... now the East Coast has one of them ONCE A MONTH ... we have a drought that covers more than half of the continent ... ON-GOING !

you block heads that insist nothing is getting worse, it just seems that way because we have more technology to measure things globally - and there are more people so the numbers are higher - are delusional ... there isn't more Earth quakes because there are more people, there isn't more volcanic activity because there are more people, there aren't more anomolies in the Heavens because there are more people, and there aren't MORE diseases because there are more people ... and the Earth isn't getting warmer because there are more people ...

and the Stratosphere isn't collapsing because there are more people ... you are not in KANSAS any more - deal with it
 Quoting: SunnyDaze


Thank you! The people that see nothing aren't meant to. I've given lists of unprecedented weather anomalies to friends,article after article about baffled scientist claiming we've never encountered these conditions before, yet most of them glaze over in an incomprehensible stare.
We wait and watch and most will go on with the superficiality of their lives until theres no time left. This has happened many times, and will continue in the coming eons. We're just one cycle of life trying to evolve,... well some are! Peace Sunny Dazehf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 11:37 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
oh PLEASE yourself


there wasn't a haze 24/7 in the air, the skys were blue
there wasn't any fluoride in the water (along with only the gods know what)
the plants and animals were not genetically modified

FUshima wasn't spewing leathal rads 24/7


WAKE UP, you are not living in the same environment ... you are barely even the same fucking SPECIES ...


sure we had extremely hot and cold days ---- but NOT IN THE SAME WEEK ... we called them "the storm of the century" ... now the East Coast has one of them ONCE A MONTH ... we have a drought that covers more than half of the continent ... ON-GOING !

you block heads that insist nothing is getting worse, it just seems that way because we have more technology to measure things globally - and there are more people so the numbers are higher - are delusional ... there isn't more Earth quakes because there are more people, there isn't more volcanic activity because there are more people, there aren't more anomolies in the Heavens because there are more people, and there aren't MORE diseases because there are more people ... and the Earth isn't getting warmer because there are more people ...

and the Stratosphere isn't collapsing because there are more people ... you are not in KANSAS any more - deal with it
 Quoting: SunnyDaze


hahahaha

amazing fucking post!

applause
Da fuq

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12/29/2012 11:40 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
oh PLEASE yourself


there wasn't a haze 24/7 in the air, the skys were blue
there wasn't any fluoride in the water (along with only the gods know what)
the plants and animals were not genetically modified

FUshima wasn't spewing leathal rads 24/7


WAKE UP, you are not living in the same environment ... you are barely even the same fucking SPECIES ...


sure we had extremely hot and cold days ---- but NOT IN THE SAME WEEK ... we called them "the storm of the century" ... now the East Coast has one of them ONCE A MONTH ... we have a drought that covers more than half of the continent ... ON-GOING !

you block heads that insist nothing is getting worse, it just seems that way because we have more technology to measure things globally - and there are more people so the numbers are higher - are delusional ... there isn't more Earth quakes because there are more people, there isn't more volcanic activity because there are more people, there aren't more anomolies in the Heavens because there are more people, and there aren't MORE diseases because there are more people ... and the Earth isn't getting warmer because there are more people ...

and the Stratosphere isn't collapsing because there are more people ... you are not in KANSAS any more - deal with it
 Quoting: SunnyDaze


arnoldsolardoom!
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 11:43 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 12:02 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


why you say that magnetosphere is collapsing???
Anonymous Coward
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Russian Federation
12/29/2012 12:16 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


Magnetosphere is really showing signs of serious imbalance and can theoretically collapse (although so far this has not happened), also there may be a change of the magnetic poles. As it has happened many times in Earth's history. But if it does - it will not happen over the centuries, but much faster.
bump
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 12:20 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


Magnetosphere is really showing signs of serious imbalance and can theoretically collapse (although so far this has not happened), also there may be a change of the magnetic poles. As it has happened many times in Earth's history. But if it does - it will not happen over the centuries, but much faster.
bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21950227


but there are real data about it? I know sun is allmost "dead" but...
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 12:28 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


Magnetosphere is really showing signs of serious imbalance and can theoretically collapse (although so far this has not happened), also there may be a change of the magnetic poles. As it has happened many times in Earth's history. But if it does - it will not happen over the centuries, but much faster.
bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21950227


but there are real data about it? I know sun is allmost "dead" but...
 Quoting: Luisport


Well, for example accelerating drift of the magnetic poles -is considered by many one of the real signs of approaching reversal. Although general consensus among scientists of course not - our memory of the thank God has not yet occurred LoL
phoomp

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12/29/2012 12:37 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what is going on is quite simple

our magnetosphere is collapsing, in advance of the 'imminent' pole shift, which could take centuries to complete, and worse and worse things will get

this also explains the tectonic shite going on

the jet streams are being severely disrupted, which is fucking our weather up big style. INSECTS are flying around here ffs, end of December?

now we've got upper air temps that look like yin/yang..

[link to shrani.si]

the poster above is dead right. people on here, and in general need to wake the fuck up, or will it take one of those billion rounds ploughing into them before they say, 'AHA! that's it!'?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


Magnetosphere is really showing signs of serious imbalance and can theoretically collapse (although so far this has not happened), also there may be a change of the magnetic poles. As it has happened many times in Earth's history. But if it does - it will not happen over the centuries, but much faster.
bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21950227


but there are real data about it? I know sun is allmost "dead" but...
 Quoting: Luisport


Real data is for shills.
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 01:05 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
...This massive low pressure will emerge in the United States by the splitting of the polar vortex. Not collapse, but a split. This will send pieces of the vortex into lower latitudes, and in this case possibly the US. [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 04:16 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 13 minutes ago

Just by viewing these temperature charts we can see the warming filtering down to the lower levels
[link to wekuw.met.fu-...l&var=t&lng=eng]

with consequent reduction and then reversal in the Zonal Winds
[link to wekuw.met.fu-...l&var=u&lng=eng]

Good to see the warming getting down to the trophosphere by day 10. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 04:17 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 6 minutes ago

A couple of thoughts as we stand on the brink of a major mid winter warming..

The last few GFS runs have pointed towards a large junk of the residual split vortex centred initially over Hudson Bay with a general trend to retrogress this as the entire upper and middle stratosphere demonstrates a negative (westward) gyre. 12z t300 a good depiction of this.

That suggests a large poleward flux of ozone through the North Atlantic around the eastward flank of the cut off vortex from the mid and low latitudes as colder air is pulled into the tropical stratosphere. The last few runs indicating warming around Greenland are consistent with ozone flux.

The question arises how quick if any will the propagation be of -ve zonal wind anonalies ?

I suspect the answer to this may be quicker than a conventional event given the state of the atmosphere ahead of the warming lower down in the mid and lower stratosphere and troposphere and the trospheric longwave pattern projected days 11-15.

If we look at zonal wind anomalies there is a persistence of -ve zonal wind anomalies.

That means less wind shear for any wave working its way down.

The programmed GEFS mean height anomaly pattern for days 11-15 depicts a developing -ve EPO pattern with a ridge over the NE Pacific extending into Alaska and troughing into the mid West USA and Canada with +ve heights over the mid Atlantic.

That largely coincides with the 10hPa GPH forecast for around day 13, meaning that the trosphere doesn't have to move much towards the upper level flow.

An instant tropospheric reaction to the warming is possible, but perhaps we should be focussing more around days 10-14 following the warming (5th Jan) for the first real impact ?
[link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 04:40 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Begins
By Andrew at 3:17 PM

As expected, the sudden stratospheric warming has begun over Canada as of the day after Christmas. This sudden warming is signified by massive warm temperature anomalies flooding into the Arctic.

In these sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), warm air penetrates the stratosphere and is forced up high into the stratosphere. When the warm air is forced up, cold air originally from the stratosphere is forced down to the surface. There is a couple week lag between sudden stratospheric warmings and cold air reaching the surface. I'm not confident of the exact number of days it takes for this cold to hit the surface, but I think we should see this SSW's effects by mid to late January, something that could bring downright frigid air to much of the nation IF the atmospheric pattern cooperates.

It should be mentioned that SSW's cause trough formation later on. Like we saw with the Dec. 1-6 SSW in the first several frames of the animation above, we are now seeing forecasts of low pressure building in the Bering Sea, right where that first SSW occurred. If the same rule applies, the end of January could see anomalous low pressure building over Canada, possibly extending into Greenland- something that could ignite the infamous, anti-cold-and-snow positive NAO. But that's a different post for a different time.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 05:44 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Forecast in Iceland shows that we might break the historical RECORD for lowest temperature ever recorded, next 27th December, near Myvatn

[link to www.mbl.is]

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.
temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

[link to notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


lolsign

now
[link to en.vedur.is]

and forecast for week forward with temperatures even over 0 C

[link to en.vedur.is]

What do you think about? Vortex collapse already not immitent or no?
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 05:48 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Forecast in Iceland shows that we might break the historical RECORD for lowest temperature ever recorded, next 27th December, near Myvatn

[link to www.mbl.is]

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.
temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

[link to notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


lolsign

now
[link to en.vedur.is]

and forecast for week forward with temperatures even over 0 C

[link to en.vedur.is]

What do you think about? Vortex collapse already not immitent or no?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21950227


the sudden stratospheric warming allready takes place. But cold aire in principle takes some time to stablish... and we will see very cold aire in some places and a more warm aire in others... we will see it fast i think
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 05:50 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is the scariest thing I have heard about. Cold kills very easily. Please keep warm everyone.

hf
Luisport (OP)

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12/29/2012 05:53 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is the scariest thing I have heard about. Cold kills very easily. Please keep warm everyone.

hf
 Quoting: AwakeInTassie


yes it is, i'm not prepared for temp below -10c... it will kill many hundreads if it came to iberian peninsula.
Anonymous Coward
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12/29/2012 05:58 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Forecast in Iceland shows that we might break the historical RECORD for lowest temperature ever recorded, next 27th December, near Myvatn

[link to www.mbl.is]

The computer models forecast a low temperature between -34ºC to -45ºC, still uncertain and difficult to predict exactly. But the absolute Icelandic record stands at -38ºC from 1918.
temperature in Reykjavik for 1938 is still falling? Recently it dropped by almost 1.8°C

[link to notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


lolsign

now
[link to en.vedur.is]

and forecast for week forward with temperatures even over 0 C

[link to en.vedur.is]

What do you think about? Vortex collapse already not immitent or no?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21950227


the sudden stratospheric warming allready takes place. But cold aire in principle takes some time to stablish... and we will see very cold aire in some places and a more warm aire in others... we will see it fast i think
 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks! In that case you have to be on guard hf

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