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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 10:16 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk]

"As expected, the sudden stratospheric warming has begun over Canada as of the day after Christmas. This sudden warming is signified by massive warm temperature anomalies flooding into the Arctic."
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 10:19 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
When will this Portuguese water tard go away?
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 10:32 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
thank you luistuga, 5*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31104188


tão poucos tugas aqui no GLP... até me sinto mais em casa!hf
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 10:42 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#




huh? excuse me, but we just had a solar minimum. we are supposed to be in solar maximum now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1253249


This is all sun related yes?

More signs of change to our sun?
 Quoting: Da fuq


There is no changes happening to the sun. We are entering a solar minimum.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#




huh? excuse me, but we just had a solar minimum. we are supposed to be in solar maximum now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1253249



I agree with you , we supposed to be on solar maximum from Mid 2012 towards the end of 2013. At the moment the sun is however very quiet. The cycle was anticipated to be very weak when compared with the previous solar cycle, however the reality was even worse than the anticiped data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

As a side note, some specialists think we already passed the maximum and also the next maximum might be missed all together. If this is the case, a mini-iceage would not be a surprise..
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 10:45 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
When will this Portuguese water tard go away?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25990420


why? If you don't like don't see it!peace
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 10:47 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
So, two trends really evident. The first is for the obvious secondary warming episode from Hudson Bay right across towards Siberia. Given that we have a preceding warming event that gives the stratospheric PV a significant booting right through to the lower stratosphere, and given the lack of net tropospheric zonal winds at present, there is very little to prevent a downwelling trend from this secondary warming.

The second trend, and equally applicable to the lack of preventative forcing, is for the remaining shreds of cold in the mid stratosphere to set up around the Aleutians. Should this pattern downwell, it may well set up an Aleutian low - and given the forecast, should this occur, with plenty of HLB setting up and a lack of PV preventing much shift in global tropospheric patterns, we could be seeing some extended Wave 1 activity towards the end of Jan again, helping to prevent any reformation of the vortex.

You could also speculate that given the extensive nature of the secondary warming, once any remnants of the PV have been displaced south from Scandinavia, you could well see heights ridging from Greenland across towards Scandinavia. It doesn't take much of a shift east from there to set up a scandi high - which could then induce further Wave 2 activity further down the line.

Of course we have to remember this is all a forecast at present, but given the recent consistency of the GFS all the way out into FI with the first warming episode, this bodes well for the remainder of our winter, and possibly even slightly beyond

SK [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 10:49 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I love the winter.

2nd Ice Age?

Bring it!

banana2
 Quoting: Devoted Follower 28055738


IDIOT ^^^^^^^^
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 10:50 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Recent studies have suggested that El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may have a considerable impact on
Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric conditions. Notably, during El Niño the stratosphere is warmer than
during ENSO‐neutral winters, and the polar vortex is weaker. Opposite‐signed anomalies have been reported during
La Niña, but are considerably smaller in amplitude than during El Niño. This has led to the perception that El Niño is
able to substantially affect stratospheric conditions, but La Niña is of secondary importance. Here we revisit this
issue, but focus on the extreme events that couple the troposphere to the stratosphere: major, mid‐winter stratospheric
sudden warmings (SSWs). We examine 53 years of reanalysis data and find, as expected, that SSWs are nearly twice
as frequent during ENSO winters as during non‐ENSO winters. Surprisingly, however, we also find that SSWs
occur with equal probability during El Niño and La Niña winters. These findings corroborate the impact of ENSO on
stratospheric variability, and highlight that both phases of ENSO are important in enhancing stratosphere‐troposphere
dynamical coupling via an increased frequency of SSWs. [link to www.columbia....ni-GRL-2011.pdf]
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 11:10 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Good Morning. Can you just state the obvious for me as I am lost in the data.

What say you for temps in BC Canada. Colder or warmer...?
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 11:14 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Good Morning. Can you just state the obvious for me as I am lost in the data.

What say you for temps in BC Canada. Colder or warmer...?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21867426


for now it seams it will be colder... allmost for shure. But we have to wait untill polar cold aire masses resulting from the PV collapse stablished in
S0L4RN1GHTM4R3

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12/30/2012 11:33 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Good Morning. Can you just state the obvious for me as I am lost in the data.

What say you for temps in BC Canada. Colder or warmer...?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21867426


for now it seams it will be colder... allmost for shure. But we have to wait untill polar cold aire masses resulting from the PV collapse stablished in
 Quoting: Luisport


For now, it seems it will be colder, almost for sure. We have to wait until polar cold air masses, resulting in the PV collapse, are calculated into the data.

Last Edited by ****D4RK*ST4R**** on 12/30/2012 11:34 AM
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."

John F. Kennedy
psyoptics

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12/30/2012 11:37 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
if this is now or at least 12 26 2012...
what should this image look like?

[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.com]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 11:47 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Good Morning. Can you just state the obvious for me as I am lost in the data.

What say you for temps in BC Canada. Colder or warmer...?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21867426


for now it seams it will be colder... allmost for shure. But we have to wait untill polar cold aire masses resulting from the PV collapse stablished in
 Quoting: Luisport


For now, it seems it will be colder, almost for sure. We have to wait until polar cold air masses, resulting in the PV collapse, are calculated into the data.
 Quoting: S0L4RN1GHTM4R3


Thank you so much! As you all can see i'm not my friend Doorbert!hf
whiteangel

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12/30/2012 01:04 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
oh PLEASE yourself


there wasn't a haze 24/7 in the air, the skys were blue
there wasn't any fluoride in the water (along with only the gods know what)
the plants and animals were not genetically modified

FUshima wasn't spewing leathal rads 24/7


WAKE UP, you are not living in the same environment ... you are barely even the same fucking SPECIES ...


sure we had extremely hot and cold days ---- but NOT IN THE SAME WEEK ... we called them "the storm of the century" ... now the East Coast has one of them ONCE A MONTH ... we have a drought that covers more than half of the continent ... ON-GOING !

you block heads that insist nothing is getting worse, it just seems that way because we have more technology to measure things globally - and there are more people so the numbers are higher - are delusional ... there isn't more Earth quakes because there are more people, there isn't more volcanic activity because there are more people, there aren't more anomolies in the Heavens because there are more people, and there aren't MORE diseases because there are more people ... and the Earth isn't getting warmer because there are more people ...

and the Stratosphere isn't collapsing because there are more people ... you are not in KANSAS any more - deal with it
 Quoting: SunnyDaze


This whole post made me laugh but not laughing at, rather at how much sense it made and a total slap down. Thought the people who came to GLP were more enlightened, not the typical sheeple. You, SunnyDaze said this all, rather amazingly!!! Good job to you.
clappa
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:06 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Sunday, December 30, 2012Significant Cold Ahead For January-February
By Andrew at 11:58 AM
Significant cold is ahead for the months of January and February, especially late January into February. I'll explain what could cause this.

This chart of observed stratospheric temperatures for the years of 2011 and 2012 shows tat we have had two recent warming events, as shown in the red temperature line spikes on the far right of the graph. When these spikes occur, they are called Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, or SSW events. When an SSW occurs, warm air from lower levels of the atmosphere is forced up into the stratosphere. Because of the warm air being forced up, cold air originally in the stratosphere is displaced and forced down to fill the void left by the warm air now being pushed into the stratosphere. This is why we want SSW's to happen in the winter, so cold air can come down to the surface.

This ECMWF multi-panel graph forecast shows temperature forecasts for different latitudes. We see that the top 3 panels show significant and sudden warming of the upper stratosphere, including the 10mb and 30mb layers. This is a direct result of the sudden stratospheric warmings, and if these forecasts happen, it is certainly plausible that significant amounts of cold air will be displaced down into the troposphere (where we live). Even better news is how the two stratospheric layers do not directly cool down after the warming.

Even better news for cold air prospects is how the polar vortex is getting torn apart. For those unfamiliar with the polar vortex, it is the driving force behind the Arctic Oscillation and varies in its strengths. When it is weaker than normal, the polar vortex releases cold air down into the troposphere, much like the air displacement example shown above with the sudden stratospheric warming.

These two forecasts above of different isentropic layers show how decimated the polar vortex will be. The colors depict potential vorticity values, much like how high vorticity values signify low pressure systems at the tropospheric 500 millibar level. The two forecasts above show virtually no polar vortex to be found- the potential vorticity that IS present doesn't resemble a polar vortex in either of these two layers. This is exactly what I have been warning about- a polar vortex collapse. It seems to be happening in the upper stratosphere. If it propagates down to lower layers of the stratosphere, there's no telling what could happen.

Now, here's the big thing that will kick off the cold for mid-late January: CROSS POLAR FLOW.

The above image is for the lowest level of the stratosphere- the 100mb layer. I have outlined my best guess as to where the jet stream is. The plus sign signifies the North Pole. Using the outlined area, we see that the jet stream starts in Siberia, shoots north into the North Pole, and crashes south into the Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast. The jet stream crossing the Polar region and then fleeing south into the US is called a cross polar flow and is commonly identified with the strongest cold air outbreaks in the US.

GGEM Ensembles showing Cross-Polar Flow in very long range

GFS Ensembles showing Cross-Polar Flow in very long range
Both the GFS ensembles and GGEM ensembles are showing cross-polar flow regimes setting up in the long range. This cross-polar flow is shown by high pressure pressing toward the North Pole, with low pressure then appearing across Canada and the US. Now, the GGEM Ensembles are indeed showing this cross-polar flow much better than the GFS ensembles. It is a very good sign to see two major ensemble systems showing cross-polar flow evolving, as well as the stratospheric ECMWF. If this happened, cold would invade the Lower 48 and would not be easily pushed out.

This is the zonal mean temperature forecast from the ECMWF model. I inserted an arrow into the 1mb - 5mb layers to signify what will happen now that this sudden stratospheric warming event is ongoing. That depression of light blue colors signifies cold air being forced down through the stratosphere in response to the sudden stratospheric warmings. Now, this air will warm as it pushes down through the stratosphere, but nonetheless, it is stratospheric air, meaning it will naturally still be colder than normal.

For the long range model forecasts, the CFS v2 monthly forecasts show a very cold January and February:

-Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Last Edited by Luisport on 12/30/2012 01:17 PM
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:19 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Globally and US WAY ABOVE NORMAL SNOWCOVER. As per Pat post article 2 wks ago [link to patriotpost.us] [link to twitter.com]
NewsUpdater

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12/30/2012 01:28 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what all of this means is that the Lower 48 will actually have a winter this year, something it hasnt seen in decades.
Fact are important, They should be presented first, opinions will vary.
whiteangel

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12/30/2012 01:38 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
This is the scariest thing I have heard about. Cold kills very easily. Please keep warm everyone.

hf
 Quoting: AwakeInTassie


yes it is, i'm not prepared for temp below -10c... it will kill many hundreads if it came to iberian peninsula.
 Quoting: Luisport


For those not able to figure out Fahrenheit to Celsius or visa versa; -10C = 14F.

For me 14 is nothing during the winter but in areas not use to dipping below 32F, ever, this is very cold temps. Hypothermia can set in if the core body temp starts falling and this can take place when the outside temps are 55 F/12 C and it is windy and raining. As usual children and the elderly are more susceptible and can actually experience hypothermia faster than a healthy adult.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 01:39 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Globally and US WAY ABOVE NORMAL SNOWCOVER. As per Pat post article 2 wks ago [link to patriotpost.us] [link to twitter.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Luisport,

What about Europe, temps are much to high here, windy and wet.

Thanx for your very intersting comments.

hf
IssueX

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12/30/2012 01:40 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
If there's a super hard January freeze up, then the Mississippi is TOAST
 Quoting: climacus


very good point

ever since the extreme drought of the summer, parts of the Mississippi are no longer navigable

but that news has fallen off the front page radar...even though the situation is still as serious

you are absolutely correct in this warning...and the economic implications are serious
upliftedlala

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12/30/2012 01:40 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here in Alaska this last week has seen very warm temps after a long cold very cold early winter. Have very little snow and now it is raining, the wind is whipping and the temps are in the 40's. not normal! Feels like spring! crazy!
IssueX

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12/30/2012 01:44 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
thank you luistuga, 5*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31104188


tão poucos tugas aqui no GLP... até me sinto mais em casa!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


meu avo era portugues de Lisboa, com familha no Brasil

Portugueses são muito boa pessoas, e trabalhadoras

obrigado a sua ajuda

hf
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:45 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Major Stratwarm to force tropospheric cooling over N America, setting stage for bitter arctic attack mid/late Jan [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:47 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
thank you luistuga, 5*
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31104188


tão poucos tugas aqui no GLP... até me sinto mais em casa!hf
 Quoting: Luisport


meu avo era portugues de Lisboa, com familha no Brasil

Portugueses são muito boa pessoas, e trabalhadoras

obrigado a sua ajuda

hf
 Quoting: IssueX


WOW so good to see an american wrighting in portuguese!!! hf
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:48 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

I am sure other mets will start drawing your attention to this. ( stratwarms in mid winter associated with major cold)
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 01:54 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
And while on the topic of cold and snow, the GFS and ECMWF models show significant stratospheric warming across the North Pole and Canada towards the middle of January. With the NAO expected to fall rapidly at that time, and with the AO expected to rise rapidly at that time, it's about to get very cold for many across the United States. The split & temporary collapse of the polar vortex we've seen in recent years has been interesting.. Considering it tends to happen after solstice, one of these years it's not going to set back up for the rest of winter. [link to www.wunderground.com]
NordicNeoShaman

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12/30/2012 02:10 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, could you possibly e-mail me? My address is in my profile. Got some interesting projects going on and could use your expertise.
nns
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 02:10 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luis Port:

Boas! Desejo-te um bom ano 2013.

Podes-me explicar por miudos o teu post?

E em POrtugues sff.,? Já percebi que parece que existe uma anormalia na estratoesfera? É isso?

Que implicações pode ter cá em Portugal? Pelo que lembro de antigos Posts tu é do Norte de Portugal? Certo?
jazz
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12/30/2012 02:12 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
since u r at it,can u order 3 ft for me b4 the 2nd so i can take the rest of the wk off work??lol
wow seems we r either goina b bitter cold or buried in snow. here on the ny-pa border we have over a foot of snow already on the ground.also wind is gusty sporadically. glad i'm half way between the coast n the great lakes. most storms the last cpl yrs go by one side or the other and we get the just outer edges.
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 02:13 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
oh PLEASE yourself


there wasn't a haze 24/7 in the air, the skys were blue
there wasn't any fluoride in the water (along with only the gods know what)
the plants and animals were not genetically modified

FUshima wasn't spewing leathal rads 24/7


WAKE UP, you are not living in the same environment ... you are barely even the same fucking SPECIES ...


sure we had extremely hot and cold days ---- but NOT IN THE SAME WEEK ... we called them "the storm of the century" ... now the East Coast has one of them ONCE A MONTH ... we have a drought that covers more than half of the continent ... ON-GOING !

you block heads that insist nothing is getting worse, it just seems that way because we have more technology to measure things globally - and there are more people so the numbers are higher - are delusional ... there isn't more Earth quakes because there are more people, there isn't more volcanic activity because there are more people, there aren't more anomolies in the Heavens because there are more people, and there aren't MORE diseases because there are more people ... and the Earth isn't getting warmer because there are more people ...

and the Stratosphere isn't collapsing because there are more people ... you are not in KANSAS any more - deal with it
 Quoting: SunnyDaze


This whole post made me laugh but not laughing at, rather at how much sense it made and a total slap down. Thought the people who came to GLP were more enlightened, not the typical sheeple. You, SunnyDaze said this all, rather amazingly!!! Good job to you.
clappa
 Quoting: whiteangel
bump