2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

three weeks ago we had here polar winter with heavy snow everywhere, even on the islands that is rare in early December!

Now is sunny and warm at the end of the year! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE

weather is going bananas

magnetosphere

it is weakening dramatically

we had - 40-50 for the last 6 weeks today its -4

Thatss weird! Something is going on for a while,. Same with the birds i see, it seems that they out of control. going south, no they stay here, is this area. Nice but strange.

Yesterday, 2 bees in my backyard. Huh?

eu sou de Lisboa mas vivo em Fatima... isto é assim, ciclicamente o vortice polar colapsa, quando isto acontece as massas de ar polar dispersam-se até latitudes mais baixas, mas não o fazem de forma homogenea, por isso ainda não sabemos se isto vem para a Europa... parece ser certo que os Estados Unidos e Canadá vão ser afectados.

But, do you have some good links for me ( us )? I realy dont know if its treu that magnetosphere is getting weaker, and how long does is take that the shit realy hits the fan......weeks, years months decades etc.

I saw a bunch of daffodils growing and flowering here in Georgia.

could take a couple of millennia

crazy could be the new norm

Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan ! [link to modeles.meteociel.fr]

Insane. How so.?

what does it mean for the uk?

i don't know nothing to Europe yet...

Was this thread renamed?

yes i rename it... acording with the update

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

No clue how to verify Greenland's temps on the ice-sheet, previous 6-hr GFS forecast had -77°F as lowest. [link to twitter.com]

10 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Not sure how far to trust NAM 2-m temps over US especially when Greenland's 6-hour forecast lowest is -93°F. Really? [link to twitter.com]

Time to leave Oh and head back down to Ms !
My sister is schizophrenic and she woke me up this morning and said we need to move back to Biloxi, it's going to get too cold here in Ohio !
PS - she doesn't read a newspaper or even watch TV, she does listen to the radio a few minutes a day, only a few min.

Sunday, December 30, 2012Polar Vortex Close To Collapse
By Andrew at 2:35 PM
As I have been emphasizing for days on end, the polar vortex is getting torn to shreds, and continues to look closer and closer to near-collapse with every model forecast. I will explain what is making it do so, and what it would take to make the vortex collapse.

These are two forecast images from the ECMWF model, with the top forecast showing the top layer of the stratosphere at 1 millibar, and the bottom forecast showing the lowest layer of the stratosphere at 100 millibars. Note how the 1 millibar layer shows high pressure covering the entire Arctic Circle, with the polar vortex now split into two vortices. This full split is much like cracking an egg- if you crack it into two, the yolk of the egg spills out. In this case, the cold air at the top of the stratosphere could flow down through the stratosphere, possibly even to the surface. As for the 100mb layer, high pressure is trying to build into the North Pole and attempting to split up the polar vortex, as seen in the 1mb layer. This is like partially cracking an egg- some yolk leaks out, but not all of it. Either way, it's progress.

This zonal wind forecast from the ECMWF, valid for 10 days out, shows very negative zonal wind anomalies in much of the stratosphere from 70N - 90N. These deep negative zonal anomalies signifies the creation of strong high pressure in the area, a.k.a. east winds. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings tend to initiate these different zonal wind values, and thus help to really hurt the polar vortex's strength. Seeing as how these easterly winds suddenly skyrocket in the entire stratosphere in the 10 day forecast, it's not all that far-fetched to continue to see severe damage inflicted upon the polar vortex at all levels.

These two graphs above show several things of importance. We'll start with the first set of image panels. The very top image shows an aqua-colored line of zonal winds at the 1 millibar level. We can see the sudden crash of the zonal winds at the 1mb layer, enhancing the forecast of zonal winds shown 3 images above this sentence. Let's now go to the bottom image of the first set of images. This shows EP-Flux, and essentially measures the strength at which warm air flows up into the stratosphere. The longer the arrow, the stronger the EP Flux and the more warm air wants to shoot into the stratosphere. Notice how it dies down again at the end of the forecast period, meaning the sudden stratospheric warming would stop.

The bottom set of images shows temperature forecasts. We want to pay attention to the first three images. They show the 10mb layer temperature for the first image, the 30mb temperature for the second image, and the 10mb/30mb temperature forecasts superimposed on each other. Now, we can see that both layers of the stratosphere warm nicely through the forecast period, a sign of the aforementioned sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Even better for cold prospects (and polar vortex collapse pospects) later on is how this warming at the 10mb and 30mb layers does not crash back down to cold levels right after the warming, as is usually observed.

Some potential vorticity forecast images show a complete collapse of the vortex at what I assume to be the top of the stratosphere:

So all in all, the polar vortex is getting torn apart now, and will only get torn apart in the future even worse. A collapse of the vortex in the upper stratosphere appears likely, and it could only be a matter of time before the rest of the stratosphere starts experiencing big troubles as far as being able to maintain itself.

**Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**


The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

from NG 2009!

[link to www.youtube.com]


Thread: Magnetosphere has been weakened by 50% in the last 2 years alone!

I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!!

Here in Georgia it's been warm for this time of year. However, each time these winter storms dip lower we've been getting snow warnings - although they haven't materialized yet. Will GA get hit with this event?

Azaleas blooming in the north part of South Carolina. Usually don't start blooming before March-April.

Thank you, i will watch and read it later for sure!

I'm sorry, Luisport, I read through but I'm no meteorologist. Can you explain this in every day terms? I take it we're going to have a lot of cold weather ahead?

Well if I believe the weather report for this week, we are going to see spring temperatures at 13 C due to a high pushing up from the south. It's suposed to be peak winter now in the uk.

Here in Finland the weather is (once again) way off the "usual" tracks.

It's around 32° F (0° C) outside at the moment, while what would be considered normal this time of year at the area I'm living would be anything from 14° F (-10° C) to -13° F (-25° C).

For couple of days now, it's been raining icy water, which immediately turns into a very thin layer of ice upon touching the snow. Everything's sort of shiny in a very unusual way, and even the sound the stuff makes when it comes down is just weird.

Can't tell if this has anything to do with the polar vortex issue, but it certainly doesn't sound too far-fetched either.

yes, US and Canada seams to get a major cold... i will post more data as soon as i have it

thank you!!