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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 02:44 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Globally and US WAY ABOVE NORMAL SNOWCOVER. As per Pat post article 2 wks ago [link to patriotpost.us] [link to twitter.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Luisport,

What about Europe, temps are much to high here, windy and wet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1562146


three weeks ago we had here polar winter with heavy snow everywhere, even on the islands that is rare in early December!

Now is sunny and warm at the end of the year! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE

weather is going bananas dead3
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31155413


magnetosphere

it is weakening dramatically
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


ohno But, do you have some good links for me ( us )? I realy dont know if its treu that magnetosphere is getting weaker, and how long does is take that the shit realy hits the fan......weeks, years months decades etc.agent
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 02:45 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I saw a bunch of daffodils growing and flowering here in Georgia.
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 02:52 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
...


Luisport,

What about Europe, temps are much to high here, windy and wet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1562146


three weeks ago we had here polar winter with heavy snow everywhere, even on the islands that is rare in early December!

Now is sunny and warm at the end of the year! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE

weather is going bananas dead3
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31155413


magnetosphere

it is weakening dramatically
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


ohno But, do you have some good links for me ( us )? I realy dont know if its treu that magnetosphere is getting weaker, and how long does is take that the shit realy hits the fan......weeks, years months decades etc.agent
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1562146


could take a couple of millennia

crazy could be the new norm
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 02:53 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan !
[link to modeles.meteociel.fr]
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 03:03 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 19 minutes ago

Interesting to note the tropospheric polar vortex at d16 shifts from Siberia into Sapporo!

Insane conditions over northern Japan !
[link to modeles.meteociel.fr]
 Quoting: Luisport


Insane. How so.?
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 03:04 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what does it mean for the uk?
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 03:05 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what does it mean for the uk?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30768011


i don't know nothing to Europe yet...
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 03:11 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
what does it mean for the uk?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30768011


afroverycoldrivotears
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 03:46 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Was this thread renamed?
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 03:53 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Was this thread renamed?
 Quoting: Entil Zha Sigma


yes i rename it... acording with the update
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 03:57 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

No clue how to verify Greenland's temps on the ice-sheet, previous 6-hr GFS forecast had -77°F as lowest. [link to twitter.com]

10 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Not sure how far to trust NAM 2-m temps over US especially when Greenland's 6-hour forecast lowest is -93°F. Really? [link to twitter.com]
Lindalee

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12/30/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
verycold Time to leave Oh and head back down to Ms !
My sister is schizophrenic and she woke me up this morning and said we need to move back to Biloxi, it's going to get too cold here in Ohio !
PS - she doesn't read a newspaper or even watch TV, she does listen to the radio a few minutes a day, only a few min.


hiding2
Circling the Sun @ 63,000 MPH
<3
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:02 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Sunday, December 30, 2012Polar Vortex Close To Collapse
By Andrew at 2:35 PM
As I have been emphasizing for days on end, the polar vortex is getting torn to shreds, and continues to look closer and closer to near-collapse with every model forecast. I will explain what is making it do so, and what it would take to make the vortex collapse.

These are two forecast images from the ECMWF model, with the top forecast showing the top layer of the stratosphere at 1 millibar, and the bottom forecast showing the lowest layer of the stratosphere at 100 millibars. Note how the 1 millibar layer shows high pressure covering the entire Arctic Circle, with the polar vortex now split into two vortices. This full split is much like cracking an egg- if you crack it into two, the yolk of the egg spills out. In this case, the cold air at the top of the stratosphere could flow down through the stratosphere, possibly even to the surface. As for the 100mb layer, high pressure is trying to build into the North Pole and attempting to split up the polar vortex, as seen in the 1mb layer. This is like partially cracking an egg- some yolk leaks out, but not all of it. Either way, it's progress.

This zonal wind forecast from the ECMWF, valid for 10 days out, shows very negative zonal wind anomalies in much of the stratosphere from 70N - 90N. These deep negative zonal anomalies signifies the creation of strong high pressure in the area, a.k.a. east winds. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings tend to initiate these different zonal wind values, and thus help to really hurt the polar vortex's strength. Seeing as how these easterly winds suddenly skyrocket in the entire stratosphere in the 10 day forecast, it's not all that far-fetched to continue to see severe damage inflicted upon the polar vortex at all levels.

These two graphs above show several things of importance. We'll start with the first set of image panels. The very top image shows an aqua-colored line of zonal winds at the 1 millibar level. We can see the sudden crash of the zonal winds at the 1mb layer, enhancing the forecast of zonal winds shown 3 images above this sentence. Let's now go to the bottom image of the first set of images. This shows EP-Flux, and essentially measures the strength at which warm air flows up into the stratosphere. The longer the arrow, the stronger the EP Flux and the more warm air wants to shoot into the stratosphere. Notice how it dies down again at the end of the forecast period, meaning the sudden stratospheric warming would stop.

The bottom set of images shows temperature forecasts. We want to pay attention to the first three images. They show the 10mb layer temperature for the first image, the 30mb temperature for the second image, and the 10mb/30mb temperature forecasts superimposed on each other. Now, we can see that both layers of the stratosphere warm nicely through the forecast period, a sign of the aforementioned sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). Even better for cold prospects (and polar vortex collapse pospects) later on is how this warming at the 10mb and 30mb layers does not crash back down to cold levels right after the warming, as is usually observed.

Some potential vorticity forecast images show a complete collapse of the vortex at what I assume to be the top of the stratosphere:

So all in all, the polar vortex is getting torn apart now, and will only get torn apart in the future even worse. A collapse of the vortex in the upper stratosphere appears likely, and it could only be a matter of time before the rest of the stratosphere starts experiencing big troubles as far as being able to maintain itself.

**Below info Updated at 2:30 PM**


The new 12z GFS forecast shows the polar vortex greatly displaced. Instead of being in the Arctic, it's all the way down in Japan! It appears another piece of the vortex may be off the coast of Europe. High pressure trapping the vortices south would theoretically deliver yet another crushing blow to the polar vortex, which I don't know will be able to recover fully in Jan-Feb.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:03 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
...


Luisport,

What about Europe, temps are much to high here, windy and wet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1562146


three weeks ago we had here polar winter with heavy snow everywhere, even on the islands that is rare in early December!

Now is sunny and warm at the end of the year! UNFUCKINGBELIEVABLE

weather is going bananas dead3
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31155413


magnetosphere

it is weakening dramatically
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31038267


ohno But, do you have some good links for me ( us )? I realy dont know if its treu that magnetosphere is getting weaker, and how long does is take that the shit realy hits the fan......weeks, years months decades etc.agent
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1562146

1dunno1 from NG 2009!

Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:06 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to www.youtube.com]


Thread: Magnetosphere has been weakened by 50% in the last 2 years alone!
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:10 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!! screamscreamscream
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:14 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here in Georgia it's been warm for this time of year. However, each time these winter storms dip lower we've been getting snow warnings - although they haven't materialized yet. Will GA get hit with this event?
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:16 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I saw a bunch of daffodils growing and flowering here in Georgia.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11338713



Azaleas blooming in the north part of South Carolina. Usually don't start blooming before March-April.
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:19 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!! screamscreamscream
 Quoting: Luisport


ahhhahhhahhh
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:25 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!


Thank you, i will watch and read it later for sure!

hf
scorpio66

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12/30/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'm sorry, Luisport, I read through but I'm no meteorologist. Can you explain this in every day terms? I take it we're going to have a lot of cold weather ahead?
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well if I believe the weather report for this week, we are going to see spring temperatures at 13 C due to a high pushing up from the south. It's suposed to be peak winter now in the uk.
NordicNeoShaman

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12/30/2012 04:32 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here in Finland the weather is (once again) way off the "usual" tracks.

It's around 32° F (0° C) outside at the moment, while what would be considered normal this time of year at the area I'm living would be anything from 14° F (-10° C) to -13° F (-25° C).

For couple of days now, it's been raining icy water, which immediately turns into a very thin layer of ice upon touching the snow. Everything's sort of shiny in a very unusual way, and even the sound the stuff makes when it comes down is just weird.

Can't tell if this has anything to do with the polar vortex issue, but it certainly doesn't sound too far-fetched either.
nns
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:36 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'm sorry, Luisport, I read through but I'm no meteorologist. Can you explain this in every day terms? I take it we're going to have a lot of cold weather ahead?
 Quoting: scorpio66


yes, US and Canada seams to get a major cold... i will post more data as soon as i have it
scorpio66

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12/30/2012 04:38 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'm sorry, Luisport, I read through but I'm no meteorologist. Can you explain this in every day terms? I take it we're going to have a lot of cold weather ahead?
 Quoting: scorpio66


yes, US and Canada seams to get a major cold... i will post more data as soon as i have it
 Quoting: Luisport


thank you!!
Anonymous Coward
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12/30/2012 04:48 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!! screamscreamscream
 Quoting: Luisport


ahhhahhhahhh
 Quoting: Luisport



Nah Nah Nah !!! You've got unusual TROPICAL weather that's what you have down South, water temperature has been wayyyyyyyy above average around 20 Celcius,
You can get your towel out and take a swim !
shark
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:50 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!! screamscreamscream
 Quoting: Luisport


ahhhahhhahhh
 Quoting: Luisport



Nah Nah Nah !!! You've got unusual TROPICAL weather that's what you have down South, water temperature has been wayyyyyyyy above average around 20 Celcius,
You can get your towel out and take a swim !
shark
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31161831


that forecast is to when? Are you shure? Do you see the map?
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:54 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I'M JUST FREAKING!!! WE WILL HAVE A BIG SHUNK OF POLAR VORTEX OFF OUR COAST BETWEEN PORTUGAL AND UK!!!!! screamscreamscream
 Quoting: Luisport


ahhhahhhahhh
 Quoting: Luisport



Nah Nah Nah !!! You've got unusual TROPICAL weather that's what you have down South, water temperature has been wayyyyyyyy above average around 20 Celcius,
You can get your towel out and take a swim !
shark
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31161831


that forecast is to when? Are you shure? Do you see the map?
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to twitter.com]
Dr. AculaModerator
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12/30/2012 04:55 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here's my thread

Thread: Dr. Acula and Friends: Emergency Winter Prep Tips!!! (411)

I made it so that this thread isnt cluttered with tips... only weather reports :) :)
Luisport (OP)

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12/30/2012 04:56 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Here's my thread

Thread: Dr. Acula and Friends: Emergency Winter Prep Tips!!! (411)

I made it so that this thread isnt cluttered with tips... only weather reports :) :)
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


hf Thank you so much!

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