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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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01/02/2013 06:44 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Recretos
Posted A minute ago

First just a little info about ECMWF:
After all the recent upgrades, the operational run has horizontal resolution 0.125°/16km, till 240h. Control run has horizontal resolution of 0.25°/30km all the way till 384h. Ensembles have resolution of 0.25°/30km till 240h, and 0.5°/60km from 240h to 384h.
Vertical resolution of the operational and the control run is 91 levels, with the top at 0.01hpa, while ensembles have 62 levels, with the top at 5hpa.

And just a side info, some recent model anomaly correlation skill comparison.

Ok, down the the real business.

Looking at the ECM forecast, it is obvious that the split will be evident in the mid and lower stratosphere, slightly before in the mid/mid-upper strat.

Looking at wave 2, it is evident lower in the strat, so it is kinda understandable. And it picks up toward the end of the period.

Now looking at the end of the period, the split is well evident in the lower stratosphere, all the way into upper troposphere, and I think even in the mid troposphere.

ECM operational, and the ensembles, are picking up the tropospheric response to the split with ease, with two ridge axis, one from Atlantic and one from Pacific, and well defined Polar Vortex split vortices. And GEFS isn't far behind either.

CFSv2 weeklies are now starting to pick up on these signals too, with week 3 possibly having a better SSW response.

Had to get it off my chest.

Best regards. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Wednesday, January 2, 2013Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable
By Andrew at 12:00 PM
I believe there is now solid evidence that a polar vortex collapse is probable in at least a few stratospheric levels in the next few weeks (for those wanting my definition of a collapse, see the last paragraph or two).

Part I: The First Warming
The first warming is ongoing, and has been ongoing for several days now. This sudden stratospheric warming is located in the mid-stratosphere at the 50 millibar level, as shown in the below animation:

The most intense warming is centered over northern Canada and the Arctic Circle, as shown by the highest maroon colored anomalies in the animation. This warming suggests even more warm air is being forced into the stratosphere, and the polar vortex should sustain damage from this. For those unfamiliar with the polar vortex, it is the low pressure system (vortex) that sits in the North Pole (polar) and holds cold air up. When the vortex is weakened, cold air tends to flow south. This is also known as the negative Arctic Oscillation.

We also use something called the EP Flux to measure what direction the 'wave' of this sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is moving. Longer arrows with warmer colors tend to signal a stronger wave of this warm air. We can see how the SSW has evolved from the lower stratosphere to the upper stratosphere by December 31, the bottom right image. It is typical for the EP Flux to spike like this when an SSW occurs.

Part II: The Second Warming
After this first warming, it appears that we will be seeing a second warming in the next 10 days. Let's look at the zonal wind forecast from the ECMWF for Day 7:

In areas of negative zonal anomalies, you can find winds that favor the destruction of the polar vortex, while warm color winds tend to favor the formation and sustainment of the polar vortex. This is what the sudden stratospheric warming is- a change in winds. SSW's are indeed accompanied by these bursts of deep negative zonal wind anomalies which damages the polar vortex and can lead to cold outbreaks if the SSW is strong enough (which this one should be).

The two images above express 'waves' of geopotential heights. Wave 1 is on the top, and Wave 2 is on the bottom. In areas of warmer colors in either image, higher heights are observed, meaning high pressure has a tendency to form. In a similar situation, darker colors tend to indicate lower heights and thus low pressure areas form. Both images are forecast for Day 10. Let's start with Wave 1. Wave 1 will be going nuts over the SSW as it introduces high pressure anomalies to the upper stratosphere in response to the SSW. Again, going against the polar vortex (which is a low pressure system). By Day 10, because the First Warming is done, it will begin to die off. However, Wave 2 will begin to strengthen during that Day 10 timeframe, and this strengthening will occur through the upper and middle stratospheric levels, meaning that this second warming would theoretically have more of an impact across the whole stratosphere. In comparison, the Wave 1 had significant high pressure anomalies focused on the upper stratosphere.

This second warming should derail the polar vortex further to the point of a split, which we will discuss more on below.


Part III: The Split
By the time the second warming begins, the polar vortex has sustained enough damage that it must split into multiple pieces in order to sustain itself. This is shown in these ECMWF forecasts for different stratospheric levels:

5 millibar forecast for Day 10.
The 100mb level is closest to the troposphere (where we live), the 50mb layer defines the middle of the stratosphere, and the 5 millibar level is as far up the stratosphere I can get without putting up an image that resembles chaos, not a forecast.

I want to start with the 50 millibar layer. Think back to high-school biology for a moment. Recall that when cells divide, they originate from one parent cell and split into two daughter cells in order to make the object stronger (whether it be a cell wall (plant) or a cell membrane (animal)). Well, the polar vortex works similar, but not entirely the same. When the polar vortex is damaged, it will split into two vortices, called daughter vortices, in order to still maintain some control over cold air in the Arctic. When this split happens, it is not to strengthen itself like biology taught us, it is to keep itself alive, rather than experience a collapse in the single parent cell, resulting in chaos across the board. This 50mb layer clearly shows the split in progress by Day 7.

Now let's dart over to the other layers. The 5 millibar layer has a lot of things going on at once. In this case, there are actually three daughter vortices. One is located in Canada, another in western Europe, and the third vortice in Asia. They are all shown as several ovals tightened close to each other with decreasing numbers as you go toward the center of these ovals. The lowest pressure is identified with an 'L', in this case found over Canada. Also happening is a warming event, shown as the warmer colors in this image and happening over Europe and the Northeast US into the Canadian Maritimes. This will further weaken the vortices. High pressure has also built in over the Arctic in the absence of a single parent vortice, with the high pressure defined as an 'H'. The 100 millibar level does not show as severe a split or as severe a warming episode, mostly because the warming has been confined to the middle and upper stratosphere. However, if the geopotential Wave 2 forecast works out, that could change.

A few potential vorticity forecasts also show the split of the polar vortex:

Part IV: The Cold
There is roughly a 1-3 week lag time between a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and cold reaching the surface. Based on some research done, I feel that this timeframe should be more in the 2-4 week range this time around, which makes my expected arrival for the cold between January 22- January 27. This cold will persist for several days, especially if this second warming sticks around for a while. The weekly CFSv2 forecasts are showing such a sustained cold outbreak, as shown below in Week 3 (top) and Week 4 (bottom) temperature anomalies. ANOMALIES ARE IN KELVIN!

Look at all that blue- that's literally off the chart cold. The forecast is unable to produce any cooler anomalies, because the legend does not go any colder than that. The Week 4 forecast predicts temperature anomalies of 3.5 degrees Kelvin (roughly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal across much of the nation. Significant warming in Canada suggests a continued weakening of the polar vortex may occur, along with blocking that may provoke a negative NAO, but that remains to be seen.

Part V: The Third Warming?
The GFS model is then pinpointing a third stratospheric warming in the long range, shown below:

10mb temperature at Hour 384.
Hour 384 is notorious for never verifying, but this warming forecast has been appearing on several GFS model forecasts, meaning the model appears more certain that this will actually happen, rather than not happen. The warming looks to originate over central Canada, right in the heart of a daughter vortice at that same 10 millibar level. That would only bring further weakening to the polar vortex/vortices and continues to confirm my suspicions of a collapse.

My definition of a collapse is as follows: "High pressure dominates the Arctic Circle, and any remaining polar vortices are weak and displaced to lower latitudes. A collapse is also believed to have happened if potential vorticity values are anomalously low." The definition of others' accounts of a collapse is different, but this is just what constitutes my posting of a probable collapse.

Things are looking up for a big cold outbreak in late January, an outbreak that could be sustained in the second and third warmings materialize and stick around for a while.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Crazy Harriet

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Brrr!!!

Thanks for the warnings, Luisport.

Have got all the wool gloves and hat on the ready.
It is in the interest of Tyrants to reduce the people to Ignorance and Vice. For they cannot live in any Country where Virtue and Knowledge prevail. The religion and public Liberty of a People are intimately connected; their Interests are interwoven, they cannot subsist separately; and therefore they rise and fall together. For this Reason, it is always observable, that those who are combined to destroy the People’s Liberties, practice every Art to poison their Morals. Sam Adams
Luisport (OP)

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01/02/2013 04:31 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Brrr!!!

Thanks for the warnings, Luisport.

Have got all the wool gloves and hat on the ready.
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


hfThank's! verycold
Vita
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01/02/2013 05:34 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Nice research, thanks a lot! Hope that local meteorological centers of each country will inform citizens on time.
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 06:39 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
killjoy27

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01/02/2013 08:53 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
BUMPS
killjoy27
TastyThoughts

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01/02/2013 08:55 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
doOM? Food supplies weakening do to shift related fertile lands?
"They cannot see what's-up if They are looking down." (TastyThoughts)
"Something is smelly! Something is smelly, like an old barnacle encrusted shoe washing ashore in the middle of summer." (TastyThoughts)
"Yes happy Earth day. Now go tell the wicked to stop damaging the Human Species therefore/and the Earth; For, they are discombobulating the entire Universe and upsetting the Most High God." (TastyThoughts)
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump4
shadasonic

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bump
 Quoting: AwakeInTassie


Hey Tass hope you're doing well, much love your way!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to www.wunderground.com]
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Recretos

Posted 4 minutes ago

Regardless of the downwelling, what we shall see (or what I see at the moment, and maybe most of you too) in the "near" future is the split connection between troposphere and stratosphere. I think that should be obvious by now. Of course given the wave2 "positioning", the tropospheric "split" dynamics are just as much tropospheric forced as they are stratospheric forced.
Regards. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
killjoy27

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01/03/2013 08:05 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
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Luisport (OP)

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01/03/2013 12:47 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
#1773 Isolated Frost
Posted 24 minutes ago

With the strat warming now beginning to be shown in the latest tropo charts, I was wondering about the effects of the 1-wave, 2-wave pattern and the general effects of Rossby waves.

First let us look at the current scenario. (excuse my paint skills!!)
note: the line holding the 'purple' is sub 512, the line holding the 'blue' is sub 544, and the line holding the 'green/yellow' is sub 576- everything above that (in red and orange) is over 576dm
note2: this is not a complete representation of the tropospherical shape atm- just values at 32dm margins that might show things more easily


The current flow shows a surging polar vortex- in a 'C' shape from Siberia, into Canada and out of Greenland- though it is not completely dominant as you can see an upper air polar high extending into the North Pole, with 540dm values.. this disrupts the general flow in the arctic, and the upcoming stratospheric warmings will most likely do more to it
note also the polar vortex segment by Newfoundland, though this can disrupt the flow, it is relatively small and intense, giving much of eastern Canada cold weather, though the attention must be paid to the eastern seaboard of the US, zonal as can be.
Another note is the little disruption near the UK, that is the subtropical ridge, which is normally positioned at 30N, this will be giving us rather mild weather this upcoming week- if you have a look at the 576dm line across the hemisphere, it is very zonal, and so we have got unlucky (or lucky) with it extending across only in our locale

Here is the GFS for d8 (11 Jan)- the polar vortex has been completely taken out by the polar high (see the small green segments and the light blue which is surrounded by the purples and dark blues)- the vortex has one segment over NE Canada, N Russia and N Japan- all of them relatively weak and meridional. The polar high is probably undermined by my drawing as you can see the long light blue ridge across the arctic... this is very positive and the perfect 'block' to begin with
note this time the 544dm (anything blue) line, it is very disturbed with a big drop in the mid-west of the USA, a big drop just to the west of the UK, and a big drop across central/eastern Europe- this is what we want to see
The 576dm line is nearly completely zonal, but this time the pacific high (part of the subtropical ridge) extends into the west of the US, instead of the UK/w Europe.

Here is a superb snapshot of a brilliant pattern.. the polar vortex (sub 512dm in this case) is extremely weak and split around, whilst if you look at the 544dm line, it is completely disturbed around the atlantic/europe- with a huge ridge built in the atlantic from Greenland, and a big drop of sub 544dm air across Europe... it is anything but zonal and the hemispherical pattern is disturbed... here's hoping for a similar scenario from the upcoming strat warming that are disturbing that 500mb pattern already [link to forum.netweather.tv]
abeliever

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01/03/2013 12:49 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thanks, Luis!

Your dedication to research is astounding.

We are appreciative of your efforts!


bump
Luisport (OP)

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01/03/2013 12:51 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thanks, Luis!

Your dedication to research is astounding.

We are appreciative of your efforts!


bump
 Quoting: abeliever


hearts I Love you all!!! We learn together!!!

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/03/2013 12:52 PM
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Now we have 2 to 4 weeks so see the impact in surface from this collapse. There are the potential for some big changes.
zacksavage
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hiding






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Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thursday, January 3, 2013What I Expect For The End Of January
By Andrew at 12:00 PM
I have been talking a lot about the developing situation in the stratosphere, and have not really talked about what the end of January could be like. I think now's an appropriate time to do so.

The first thing to discuss is the stratosphere. As observed in the above animation, the month of January experienced two sudden stratospheric warmings- one centered over the Bering Sea, and the other (currently ongoing) centered over Canada. The ongoing SSW is the more significant warming between the two, with stronger and more widespread warming happening. With these sudden stratospheric warmings comes the movement of warm air. The basis of the SSW is anomalous warm air being forced up into the stratosphere, typically in response to some convection or torque-based event (there was a strong mountain torque event observed immediately prior to the ongoing SSW). With the forcing of this warm air is the weakening of the polar vortex, the driving force behind the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but that's a piece for later on. When you have large amounts of warm air being forced into the polar vortex, the vortex tends to go on a weakening trend. Depending on the strength and placement of the SSW, this weakening can be minor or catastrophic. This current warming looks to be enough to cause a split of the parent vortice into multiple daughter vortices.

In situations like these, I like to look at the polar vortex as an egg (bear with me on this one). When the SSW occurs and warm air is forced up, the polar vortex split can occur. Think of this as cracking the egg open, but not so far as to completely break it apart. The split of the vortex lets out a fair amount of cold air to lower latitudes but not the entire Arctic, similar to how a partial cracking of the egg leads to fair leakage of the inside contents but not the entire yolk.

Back to the relatonship of the SSW and anomalously cold air in the lower latitudes, there is typically a 1-3 week lag time. I prefer to use a 2-4 week lag time, because you're talking about thousands and thousands of feet to move air, and that takes time. Using that timeframe, and looking at the upcoming zonal-flow pattern ahead, I feel that the cold weather will be best felt beyond the third week of January, pretty much beyond January 20th. This will be of direct result from the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming, and the cold outbreak ought to last a good couple of weeks.

10mb temperature at Hour 384.
Hour 384 is notorious for never verifying, but this warming forecast has been appearing on several GFS model forecasts, meaning the model appears more certain that this will actually happen, rather than not happen. The warming looks to originate over central Canada, right in the heart of a daughter vortice at that same 10 millibar level. That would only bring further weakening to the polar vortex/vortices.

If there is in fact a third sudden stratospheric warming (which I believe is definitely a possibility), there is no doubt that the amount of damage done to the polar vortex will lead to another, possibly stronger cold outbreak. The polar vortices can only sustain so much damage before another split into multiple vortices would result in a loss of the polar vortex altogether. That said, if a third SSW does occur, February would be quite a chilly month for many, as I have been hinting at for some time now.

Models also are tending to agree with the prospects for a sharp cold outbreak towards the end of January. The above forecast is of the CFS v2 long range model's weekly forecasts, with the top image valid for January 16 - January 22, and the bottom image valid for January 23 - January 29. In both images, we see sharp cold overpowering the nation, and significant warming ongoing in northern Canada. This significant warming bodes well for a ridge of high pressure in east Canada, something that could provoke a west-based negative NAO, which brings the party to the East Coast as far as cold and snow goes. However, considering the high variability between these weekly forecasts, I am hesitant to trust that negative NAO forecast. The cold has been trending on the CFS weeklies for a while now, so I am not as concerned for a bust potential in the cold as I am for the negative NAO.

My concern rests in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is a forecast chart of the MJO, with the forecasts in colors and observed conditions in a gray-ish color. Note how all members are in fair agreement with the MJO cycling into Phases 5-7 with increasing strength as time goes on. This does not bode well for cold weather in the East US. On the contrary, Phases 5-7 are very favorable for warm conditions across the nation. Now, if the forecasts were weaker with Phases 5-7 (closer to the center circle), I would not be as concerned. But alas, the models are in moderate strength with the dreaded phases of 5-7. The MJO only tries to reach pro-cold phases 8-2 by the beginning of February, and even then the MJO starts to die off.

We have the ball rolling very well here, as far as getting the cold down to the US. The stratosphere is experiencing a very formidable sudden stratospheric warming, and that will get the cold down to the surface. The question is, can the stratosphere overcome the MJO to get that cold air to come into the US rather than other parts of the world? My answer is yes. I have a good feeling we will have a good negative NAO setting up in mid to late January as the split in the stratosphere is reciprocated in the troposphere by pieces of the polar vortex being displaced away from the Arctic Circle and allowing high pressure to build in that area. Greenland would also be affected by high pressure formation, and the negative NAO would form. I buy more into an east-based negative NAO than a west-based negative NAO at this time.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2013 01:47 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Good work Luisport
Back in 1985

Posted 8 minutes ago

GP touched on 1979, 1982 and 1987, a lot to note, but also a tad on the extensive warmings, and the relevance in the polar high dynamics for the year below
the relevance in the current tropospheric modelling also lies to a certain extent with 1985, an extensive polar high with cold in the UK mid-month.. and the polar vortex goes off on one, record breaker-
Sub 492dm in NE US, sub -30c 850s over much of the NE US.. a polar vortex displacement to an incredible extent

[link to forum.netweather.tv]

tredmil
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
#1775 Isolated Frost
Posted 9 minutes ago

A little animation about the relative destruction of the vortex (this at 100hpa)
A combination of the fantastic NW Extra and some fab paint skills [link to picasion.com]
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What i think is interesting and i mentioned it before in this thread...

but 1985 and 2013 both started on a Tuesday...
both years are mirror years... meaning that June 15th 1985 and June 15th 2012 falls on a Saturday.

This years calendar can be used as the 1985 calendar and vice versa.

The polar vortex for 2013 is looking very similar to the 1985 arctic outbreak right?

28 years apart...

So anyone know what 1957 was like?
(i searched and couldnt find anything)

but I'm seeing a pattern here...

does this happen every 28 years?
Luisport (OP)

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01/03/2013 03:12 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What i think is interesting and i mentioned it before in this thread...

but 1985 and 2013 both started on a Tuesday...
both years are mirror years... meaning that June 15th 1985 and June 15th 2012 falls on a Saturday.

This years calendar can be used as the 1985 calendar and vice versa.

The polar vortex for 2013 is looking very similar to the 1985 arctic outbreak right?

28 years apart...

So anyone know what 1957 was like?
(i searched and couldnt find anything)

but I'm seeing a pattern here...

does this happen every 28 years?
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


WOW!!! My friend your statement is brilliant! I do belive on this kind of cicles... maby there are a pathern here.
Vesper33
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01/03/2013 03:22 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What i think is interesting and i mentioned it before in this thread...

but 1985 and 2013 both started on a Tuesday...
both years are mirror years... meaning that June 15th 1985 and June 15th 2012 falls on a Saturday.

This years calendar can be used as the 1985 calendar and vice versa.

The polar vortex for 2013 is looking very similar to the 1985 arctic outbreak right?

28 years apart...

So anyone know what 1957 was like?
(i searched and couldnt find anything)

but I'm seeing a pattern here...

does this happen every 28 years?
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


WOW!!! My friend your statement is brilliant! I do belive on this kind of cicles... maby there are a pathern here.
 Quoting: Luisport


I second that motion!!! Great work here. :)
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. [link to twitter.com]

11 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.
Vita
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. [link to twitter.com]

11 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please explain what does it mean?

Thanks!
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. [link to twitter.com]

11 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please explain what does it mean?

Thanks!
 Quoting: Vita 15928393


someone correct me if i am wrong...

But it means that the warming in the Stratosphere is in fact occurring...
that is what causes the Polar Vortex Partial/Full Collapse
Vita
User ID: 15928393
Netherlands
01/03/2013 04:30 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. [link to twitter.com]

11 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.
 Quoting: Luisport


Can you please explain what does it mean?

Thanks!
 Quoting: Vita 15928393


someone correct me if i am wrong...

But it means that the warming in the Stratosphere is in fact occurring...
that is what causes the Polar Vortex Partial/Full Collapse
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


Hmmm, than it has to be the second SSW!ohno