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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 06:03 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Alright GFS, now you're just havin' a larf! [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

8 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

GFS is either going to flip suddenly to something much milder or other models may slowly follow suit, with time... Interesting.

10 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Well yet another GFS run that builds a block to the N to increase the intensity of cold from the E or NE - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 4 minutes ago

.. Another GFS run which maintains a strong upper ridge over the NE Atlantic and suggests a trend to shift the residual vortex from Canada rapidly towards Siberia in the day 10-15 timeframe.

Whenever this occurs, the pivoting in the atmosphere that takes place is extremely supportive of major outbreaks of Arctic air. It may look as the polar stratosphere is cooling but I suspect this ties in with the peak tropospheric impact around the 25th-28th January and then into early Feb. Taken at face value, we also have another Pacific ridge developing in the stratosphere which leads us..... to another warming episode in mid to late Feb ? [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 06:10 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Monday, January 7, 2013Severe Arctic Cold Could Mimic January 1985
By Andrew at 5:00 PM

Forecasts continue to be on track for massive cold to enter the central and eastern US after making its presence known in the West US in the long range. Shown above are 500 millibar height anomalies for Hour 240 of the ECMWF model run from Weatherbell.

I want to go into the high pressure ridge building over the Gulf of Alaska. This is a negative East Pacific Oscillation, or EPO. When a negative EPO sets up, cold air is then provoked to move into the central and eastern parts of the nation. It is thought of as one corner of a triangle of teleconnections that can bring cold air to the US. The second piece is the Arctic Oscillation, or AO. When the polar vortex is weak, cold air is not able to be held by the vortex and slips south from the Arctic. This is a negative Arctic Oscillation. Considering the polar vortex is going through heavy damage, the AO will be strongly negative and could bomb out to extreme negative values. The third item is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the negative NAO, the jet stream buckles south to give parts of the nation cold weather. We see a battle ongoing between low pressure just south of Greenland (typical of a positive NAO) and high pressure to the north of Greenland (typical of a negative NAO). I think the NAO is definitely the wild card here, and could determine whether the cold stays in the Plains and Midwest (what I am thinking) or moves East into the Northeast and East Coast (which will happen, but may not be as cold).


Hour 216 of the GFS model.

An issue we are seeing on both the ECMWF and GFS model (image on the left from WeatherBell) for this event is the negative Pacific North American index, or PNA. In the negative PNA, low pressure builds over the West US and Rockies and provokes high pressure to build in the East. This whole cold outbreak will start with a negative PNA, which is why warm air will be maximized on the East Coast prior to this warm up, as the top ECMWF image is showing.

So we're seeing a tricky NAO and a bad PNA. Is this cold really going to happen??

YES. Both models have the polar vortex (yes, THE polar vortex) sliding into southern Canada and the north US. As it does so, the low pressure causing the negative PNA will also move east, bringing the unforgiving Arctic cold into the Plains and Midwest. The dreaded Southeast Ridge will then move out of the East Coast, allowing for some moderated (but still harsh) cold to bleed into that region.

Why am I so confident? The GFS has been giving a stellar performance with the stratosphere thus far, meaning it has a better handle than that of the ECMWF. If the GFS is to be believed, a negative NAO, negative AO and negative EPO will be in place when the cold breaks off and moves east in about 10-15 days. However, I think the ECMWF has a better handle on the North Atlantic Oscillation, hence my thinking that the strongest cold will be confined to the Plains and Midwest-Great Lakes.

Beyond January 20th, things become very murky, and I don't even want to go into what could happen after this initial wave of cold. We will have to wait a few more days to get a clearer picture of what happens post-January 20.

How could it mimic January 1985?

The top image shows the geopotential height at 30 millibars in the stratosphere for January 21, 1985, while the bottom image shows the ECMWF forecast at 30 millibars for 10 days out. Note the eerie similarities between the two images. We have the polar vortex in nearly the same spots for Canada/US border (I circled the two vortices in blue for the top image), and nearly the same spot for the other vortice in Eurasia. This similarity, combined with the negative EPO and negative AO could very well make January 20-25, 2013 be an extremely cold time not unlike January 20-22, 1985.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 07:16 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Some support but, as expected, still cold runs on the ensemble guidance envelope - [link to www.meteociel.com] …
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Crypt Watcher

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01/08/2013 07:25 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Mornin' Luisport!


Thanks for the updates!


hf
Ignorance is bliss until reality bites you in the ass.

I bury the dead.
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Finally after what seems like a very long time a clearer, colder air mass making its way cross the UK from the west - [link to meteocentre.com] …
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 01:40 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ian Fergusson‏@fergieweather

No clarity "@godfreylant: #uksnowinformation is warning 70% chance of significant snow in Central England Saturday. Is it really that high?"

1 hIan Fergusson‏@fergieweather

In summary, forecast turns increasingly cold (the only definite!) but also increasingly awkward into weekend, with raft of possible outcomes
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 01:51 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Haha! [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … Anyone else's brain about to explode or is it just me. I can't remember such a period of volatility in the models
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 02:54 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Here's the GFS ENS mean at 288hrs. Long way out but clearly not a blocked pattern - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 04:23 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Arctic air will spill into the northern Plains this wkend from Canada & will progress southeast through next week. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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01/08/2013 04:26 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Wild looking ECMWF at 240 hours arctic air dominates as gulf of Mexico low lurks.. on the 18th. Inuag 20th [link to twitter.com]
Esoteric Morgan
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01/09/2013 12:14 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
It looks as if The Weather Channel is now acknowledging the possibility, by easing us into a short-term forecast of any 'cold' weather that's coming.

They are now using the terms "Arctic Oscillation' and 'American Model' while showing us models of the jet stream over both the midsection of our country, and what's coming down from the Arctic over the North Pacific, that is soon heading into the Pacific Northwest.

Still, they are only 'predicting' into the weekend.

=============

It appears that they are being super cautious on this matter.

I suppose they must realize that only the smallest percentage of the country is following this, so they appear to be in 'teach' mode, most likely poised to continue adding to the hows and whys should it become necessary to report another potentially devastating weather event...at which point, the general public will have been somewhat forewarned, ready to hear even worse.

With our climate so erratic, I guess the bottom line is that we're all learning together.


Thanks, Luis, for keeping up with this thread. It's interesting how this 'one event' is weeks in the making.

I wonder what happens after the split? Could this phenomena continue through the winter, perhaps to eventually morph into patterns we rarely, if ever, see?

oy!

Last Edited by Esoteric Morgan on 01/09/2013 12:16 AM
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:09 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Looking like distinct mild outliers the deterministic and control run of the 06z GFS - [link to modeles.meteociel.fr] … - good news for those cold fans.
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:13 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Tuesday, January 8, 2013Incredible Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Ongoing
By Andrew at 5:23 PM
An incredible Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is ongoing at this time, and latest observations around the stratosphere have historic values in the upper stratosphere and off-the-charts warmth being observed.

We start now with an animation of observed 10 millibar temperature anomalies. You can see how this SSW develops off the Himalayas and explodes around December 26th. In the last days of 2012, it begins to shift towards the Arctic, and we are now at a point that we have a historical sudden stratospheric warming ongoing. Why is it historic? See the chart below:

This chart shows 10 millibar observed temperatures for 2012 and 2013. You can see this immense SSW event shown on this chart on the red line. The dashed green line signifies the average conditions in the stratosphere for that time of year, while the gray lines show the highest or lowest value the temperature was at for any year between 1979 and 2008. If you look closely at where the red line is now, you can see it has broken through that gray line, and has thus set a new record for warmest stratospheric temperature for this day/few days at the 10 millibar level. Looking ahead to the next few days ahead of the red line we see higher records of stratospheric warmth, meaning the SSW will have to be stronger to set more records. Is it possible? Of course- the warming only reached the Arctic today, even though the animation goes up to January 6.

The scope and intensity of this SSW is displayed in the latest observed temperature image from the North Hemisphere at the 20 millibar level, not far from the 10mb level.

The colors show temperatures in the 20mb level of the stratosphere. Because this is a sudden stratospheric warming, we will see warm temperatures come up in the phenomenon's presence. The large swath of black depicts off-the-charts warmth being observed in the Bering Sea and North Asia. The pressure lines indicate the polar vortex has already suffered a split in the upper stratosphere, with two areas of tightened circles showing up in Canada and Europe. This is keeping the ball rolling with my severe cold prediction for Late January.

Lower levels of the stratosphere are also experiencing an incoming warming event with a finger of warmth beginning to propagate to the Arctic, as shown in the 30mb animation and 50mb animation below:

Also supporting my prediction of a polar vortex collapse and late January cold is the observed spread of anomalous warmth through the entire stratosphere as shown below:

This chart is printing out temperature anomalies for January-March of 2013, hence why it is barely colored in. But despite the small area of color, the trend of warm colors blossoming from the upper stratosphere and moving to the middle stratosphere is obvious and very clear to see. If this warming continues (which is expected, with another incoming mid stratospheric warming and incredible upper stratospheric SSW), the polar vortex will continue to suffer, and warmer colors will be shown on this chart above.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:19 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Tuesday, January 8, 2013Where Could The Polar Vortex End Up?
By Andrew at 5:35 PM

The latest ECMWF model forecast from Europe is showing the polar vortex (what makes the Arctic as cold as it is, not including the presence of a tundra landscape) sitting over Nova Scotia, Canada and the Canadian Maritimes. This solution would bring incredible cold and wind to the Maritimes, while a negative NAO rages, high pressure builds over the Arctic and a sliver of energy still remaining in Canada tries to build the vortex back up. What an incredible solution this would be if it verified.

But the truth is, models are horrible at handling pattern changes, so it's best we turn to ensemble forecasts.

The top image shows the ECMWF Ensemble prediction system, commonly called the ECMWF EPS (or just EPS for short) forecast at 10 days, and the GFS Ensembles (GEFS) are shown on the bottom, also valid 10 days out. These forecasts are showing 500 millibar height anomalies, where low pressure is shown in cool colors and high pressure in warm colors. Both ensemble sets agree on the polar vortex dropping down into Canada enough to bring the North US some serious cold, but nothing historic (nothing historic has been expected thus far- just serious, harsh cold). I feel like this will be a long-lasting event, with the sudden stratospheric warming's effects lasting for a couple weeks. This means, rather than one big cold shock, it appears possible that waves of cold will penetrate the nation, each wave spreading more and more cold around.

This is still a while away and the models remain without a consensus, so I will be updating you on the possibilities as this forecast time comes closer.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 10:26 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Update from NOAA

SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DEPICT A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO IL...AND POSSIBLY INTO SE IA. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND MORE NW TRACKING SYSTEM...
WHICH RESULTS IN OUR FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

That nw tracking system is the one that heads towards western Greenland and phases with troughing in the west Atlantic.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
DIVERGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ANOTHER SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS PHASED WITH MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.

I should also add though that NOAA didn't think much of last nights ECM operational run in terms of what it did with the PV in the USA.

LATE DAY 6 TUE THRU DAY 7 WED FOLLOW A 70/30 WEIGHTING OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS GIVEN ROBUST ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT AND
VERIFICATION CONSIDERATIONS IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS ITS NRN CANADA VORTEX WELL SWD OF CONSENSUS BY
WED. [link to www.boards.ie]
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 11:38 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ian Fergusson‏@fergieweather

"@metofficenews: News Release: Colder weather on the way [link to DON'T_USE-THIS] "
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 12:00 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

With 850mb temps approaching +5c this run will no doubt be another mild one unless the ensembles are milder as well - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

25 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Looks like the 12z model is going to follow the milder theme as per the 06z GFS from middle of next week - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Once again model divergence. UKMO model sustains a more blocked colder pattern - [link to www.meteociel.com] …
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 01:28 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]
Vesper33
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01/09/2013 03:13 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
We are looking at almost 70 degrees here in North Alabama this weekend, so if the cold is coming it will be none too soon for me. I always hope for some snow, but it seems to evade us for the most part.

Does the weather forecast include cold for the South or just the Northern parts of the United States?
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 03:21 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z is so cold at 850-mb, I had to extend °C temp anomaly colorbar using Borg-approved green colors. [link to twitter.com]

1 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

-42°C at 850-mb cold for Quebec in ECMWF 12z medium-range as Arctic cold-vortex spins CCW from Hudson Bay. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 03:23 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

.@wxjay should have said "loops" as upper-level tropopause anomaly is at mercy of wicked jet screaming thru to it's SE [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 04:12 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Just telling it as it is but the 12z EC ENS are the coldest of the last few days. Pretty much unanimously cold throughout next week now.
Luisport (OP)

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01/09/2013 05:24 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Sky News‏@SkyNews

EXPRESS FRONT: Snow chaos to cripple Britain #skypapers [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/10/2013 06:44 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

I'd say this 1055 mb high sprawling over the entire Arctic will suffice -- ECMWF 00z goes big. [link to twitter.com]

4 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z wobbles some -40°C surface air from the Arctic into Ontario then Quebec. [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/10/2013 09:26 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Latest GFS model showing precip turning wintry through Wales and into Central, Southern and parts of SW Eng on Sat. [link to twitter.com]

49 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

@EMP1RE87 - My money is on the ECMWF...colder solution.
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 09:41 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Hi Luis!! :) so, are we going to get snow here in Ireland or what LOL??
Luisport (OP)

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01/10/2013 09:43 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Hi Luis!! :) so, are we going to get snow here in Ireland or what LOL??
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31893002


models are strugling... we don't know yet
Luisport (OP)

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01/10/2013 09:50 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

NAEFS, NOGAPS and GEM ensembles all colder than the GFS ensembles; [link to www.meteociel.fr] … | [link to www.meteociel.fr] … | [link to www.meteociel.fr] …

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