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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 04:50 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

I do like the position of this high on the North Pole. 1059 mb +8 days [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Active Atlantic jet/storm track positions warm sectors of several cyclones to dump warm/moist air in Labrador Sea. [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z goes from one type of cold-pattern thru 8-days to another one at day 10. NW Atlantic Blocking. [link to twitter.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 01/16/2013 04:50 AM
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 04:52 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Friday morning lows: New England mostly escapes heart of first cold blast, coldest -46°F in Quebec [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 04:54 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Next Tuesday morning, Chicago near zero, Madison -10°F, Minneapolis -20°F, Montreal -30°F. [link to twitter.com]
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01/16/2013 04:57 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I hope we are just fucking taken in an instant because I have yet to assemble a potent bugout bag?
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Anonymous Coward
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01/16/2013 05:00 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Current wind chill (temperature it really feels like outside) is down to an incredible -80.4F in Rankin Inlet, Canada.
 Quoting: Luisport


what??!
Anonymous Coward
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01/16/2013 05:01 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
..bah. here in Spain its just plain old winter. boooring.
huffy
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01/16/2013 05:40 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Been freezing up and down the US West Coast this past week. I haven't felt cold like this in a long time. Fire up the saunas.
Anonymous Coward
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01/16/2013 06:06 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
The first part dated last fall called for very cold temps even snow in the southern US and those extremes seem to be continuing right now.

This thread says its a result of cold sweeping down from a vortex collapsing over the north. I'd like to know why we're having warm and melting spells here in Northern Ontario, also record highs in southern Ontario. Looks like another non winter like last year. Our weather men are calling extreme cold when its about -2 degrees. We're all shaking our heads as that is a blaming winter day for us. We don't call it cold until about-25C

Wouldn't that cold affect us as it flowed south?
Anonymous Coward
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01/16/2013 06:06 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
The first part dated last fall called for very cold temps even snow in the southern US and those extremes seem to be continuing right now.

This thread says its a result of cold sweeping down from a vortex collapsing over the north. I'd like to know why we're having warm and melting spells here in Northern Ontario, also record highs in southern Ontario. Looks like another non winter like last year. Our weather men are calling extreme cold when its about -2 degrees. We're all shaking our heads as that is a blaming winter day for us. We don't call it cold until about-25C

Wouldn't that cold affect us as it flowed south?
Watching the world
Crypt Watcher

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01/16/2013 06:11 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thanks Luisport! I appreciate your updates!


hf
Ignorance is bliss until reality bites you in the ass.

I bury the dead.
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 10:23 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thanks Luisport! I appreciate your updates!


hf
 Quoting: Watching the world


hf Thank you so much!
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 10:24 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Thomsen, Canada, hit -54ºF this AM. Tuesday's high was -49ºF. Anyone up for moving to Thomsen? Brr.
Anonymous Coward
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01/16/2013 10:35 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
the weather is just all too weird these days. down here in ne tenn, last week was in the 70's. it's been raining continually for 4 days now. the temp is around 60* now.
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 10:40 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
the weather is just all too weird these days. down here in ne tenn, last week was in the 70's. it's been raining continually for 4 days now. the temp is around 60* now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31781644


but Tenn is in state alert isn't it? due floodings i think
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 10:51 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Tuesday, January 15, 2013Arctic Being Overwhelmed By Immense Stratospheric Warming
By Andrew at 4:10 PM

All layers of the stratosphere are being impacted by an incredibly large and immense sudden stratospheric warming at this time. The above animation shows 10 millibar temperatures from mid December to january 11th. You can see the current warming event originating from the Himalayas and has now propagated to the Arctic. The thing that makes this warming so incredible is just how much land it is covering, and just how intense this warming really is. According to observed temperatures like the one shown below, this event was indeed historic, breaking the daily stratosphere record temperature for a few days:

Unusually intense warming is also going on in the lower, more significant layers of the stratosphere, including the 30mb and 50mb layers respectively shown below:


If history of sudden stratospheric warmings are any testament to what could happen from these warmings, Siberia could be right in predicting a very cold February for much of the nation from above normal snow cover in the last half of the month of October 2012.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 10:58 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

-14C across Wales by Sunday morning - [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] … | GFS going off on one, attempting to model Tmin temps over snow-cover.


2 hMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

#rossendale #lancashire - Severe winter weather possible on Fri, with disruptive large snowfall totals possible, especially on high ground.


2 hLiam Dutton‏@liamdutton

Disruptive snow likely on Friday, with worst affected areas seeing 25cm (10 inches) of snow. More in my blog - [link to blogs.channel4.com] … #uksnow
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 11:01 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
One dead, 900 hurt in heavy Japan snowfall

Posted on January 16, 2013by The Extinction Protocol


January 16, 2013 – JAPAN - Heavy snow that blanketed eastern Japan over the holiday weekend left one man dead and 900 others injured, as Tokyo commuters Tuesday took to the slippery streets. A low-pressure system, dubbed a “bomb cyclone” by local press, dumped eight centimetres (three inches) of snow in nine hours, the heaviest snowfall in the region since January 2006, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. It left 13 centimeters of snow in neighboring Yokohama, while mountainous areas around Tokyo saw up to 30 centimeters. A 71-year-old man in Shiojiri city, Nagano prefecture, died after falling into an open drain as he cleared snow around his house, a fire service spokesman said. National broadcaster NHK said at least 891 injuries had been recorded in Tokyo and the area around it, many of them elderly people who had slipped on snow-covered streets or motorists involved in accidents. The operator of the Tokyo Skytree, a 634-metre (2,080-foot) tower in the capital that opened last year, said security guards were patrolling the base to keep people away from possible ice falls. “We haven’t received any reports of damage or injury from falling blocks of snow,” said spokeswoman Ayumi Kimura, adding around 60 guards were in the area Tuesday. “We have confirmed snow has fallen in tiny chunks. But there has been a limited amount of snow that has fallen on the tower.” Major train services resumed operations in Tokyo, although many sections of road remained closed while crews cleared frozen snow. All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines cancelled a combined total of 37 domestic flights while dozens of other flights experienced delays. International operations were not severely affected by the snow, the airlines said. On Monday, Japanese airlines cancelled more than 460 domestic flights, mainly to or from Tokyo’s Haneda airport, where runways were temporarily closed as workers removed snow. Around 3,400 people spent the night at Tokyo’s Narita airport on Monday, a spokesman said after train services running to the outlying facility were suspended. They returned to normal on Tuesday, he added. –Terra Daily [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 11:02 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Surprise winter storm creates travel woes across N. Texas

Posted on January 16, 2013by The Extinction Protocol


January 16, 2013 – TEXAS - An unexpected winter storm that struck North Texas before daybreak Tuesday put morning commuters on ice, canceled flights and forced some schools to open later than normal. Forecasters had predicted a slight chance of light sleet but had said that most of the precipitation should stay southeast of Dallas-Fort Worth. “It’s always a challenge to predict winter precipitation in North Texas,” said Nick Hampshire, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Fort Worth. “It’s always a fine line. If it had been two or three degrees warmer, we would have been talking about a rain event.” Many parts of Tarrant County received as much as a half-inch of sleet and snow, the most significant icy precipitation since the Christmas Day storm, said Dan Shoemaker, another weather service meteorologist. But don’t expect a repeat this morning. Promise, the weather service said. The day will dawn chilly, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s, but the forecast high is about 50 degrees, and there is no chance of precipitation. An upper-level low-pressure system that caused the wintry event still lingered over North Texas Tuesday evening, but it was missing a key ingredient for precipitation, Shoemaker said. “Now we have dry, cool air pushing in, rather than cool, moist air,” he explained. Temperatures should warm into the upper 50s by the weekend before another cold front arrives in time for Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. But early Tuesday morning, the surprising sounds of thunder and sleet caught residents unaware. The lift from the upper-level low-pressure system took the moist cool air that was available then and pushed into a layer of instability aloft, “and that’s when we had thunder,” Shoemaker said. Streets and overpasses began icing up after 5 a.m. Five hours later, Fort Worth police had reported more than 40 accidents. Dozens of other wrecks were reported throughout the county. A few overpasses, ramps and bridges, including the Hulen Street bridge in west Fort Worth, were also closed for a time because of ice. Some businesses and school districts delayed their openings. –Star Telegram [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 02:11 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Coldest air at 850 mb on Earth Friday morning 12z will be in NE Canada / Quebec with -41°C [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/16/2013 03:56 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Updated: Wednesday, 16 January, 2013 at 03:39 UTC
Description
Tokyo's Narita International Airport operator says 3,400 travellers spent the night in the terminal after snow caused airlines to cancel 71 flights. In the season's first snowfall in the Japanese capital, about 8 centimetres (3 inches) of snow fell in central Tokyo and around Narita on Monday - a national holiday in Japan. The snow snarled traffic and caused train delays. Airport officials distributed sleeping bags, water and crackers to stranded travellers. Normal flight operations at Narita resumed Tuesday, except for a few delays. Major train operator JR East said trains were running on schedule Tuesday. Sections of several highways around Tokyo were still closed Tuesday as workers cleared away snow and ice.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
Anonymous Coward
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01/17/2013 06:28 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Updated: Wednesday, 16 January, 2013 at 03:39 UTC
Description
Tokyo's Narita International Airport operator says 3,400 travellers spent the night in the terminal after snow caused airlines to cancel 71 flights. In the season's first snowfall in the Japanese capital, about 8 centimetres (3 inches) of snow fell in central Tokyo and around Narita on Monday - a national holiday in Japan. The snow snarled traffic and caused train delays. Airport officials distributed sleeping bags, water and crackers to stranded travellers. Normal flight operations at Narita resumed Tuesday, except for a few delays. Major train operator JR East said trains were running on schedule Tuesday. Sections of several highways around Tokyo were still closed Tuesday as workers cleared away snow and ice.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to www.handpen.com]

.
Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 10:35 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Many places across Ontario are 40-50ºF colder than yesterday at this time. Pukaskwa is 51º colder.
Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 10:37 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Cold blasts over Eastern Canada sail right across the Atlantic to UK & Europe w/subtrop high directing traffic. Hit repeat button
Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 10:39 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UK in for a nice stretch of cold. Enjoy. [link to twitter.com]
Ralph--a house dog

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01/17/2013 10:47 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well, Russia is already facing heavy minus temperatures... maybe harbingers of more to come.
 Quoting: Artaius


so imagine if this happen now, in US and Europe will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport



People need to know this! Media should be talking about it!

At the very least, GLP readers should look up Dr.Acula's fairy recent helpful thread on how to cope with blizzards. Perhaps he will re-post it ?
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Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 11:08 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Upcoming CME Could Initiate Further Stratospheric Warming
By Andrew at 1:41 PM


A coronal mass ejection, or CME, appears to be likely to hit Earth in the next several days.

The image displayed here shows the solar wind forecast for the late hours of January 16th. If we look at the top left set of images, we see a small but intense band of colors just beginning to hit a small green circle. That green circle is Earth, and that small band of colors is a coronal mass ejection (CME). When the sun gets 'agitated', it puts out a burst of energy that can fly in any direction. Some happen to put Earth in the line of fire, and this is one of those times.

If this happens, radio transmissions may be disrupted, some airplanes may see slight communication difficulties, but unless this event becomes major in the next model forecast, this will not be a significant event.

However, this could have further implications onto the stratosphere. It is evidenced that there is a strong correlation between sudden solar activity (CME) and sudden stratospheric warmings. If this is to be believed, the chances for further sudden stratospheric warmings (and an even cooler prospect for February) could rise in coming days and weeks.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 11:10 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Significant Accumulating Snowfall Forecasted For Mid-Atlantic
By Andrew at 11:07 AM

Significant accumulating snowfall looks probable in parts of the Mid-Atlantic over the next 48 hours, with two reputed models supporting accumulations surpassing one foot.

The image shown depicts the GFS model on the left and NAM model on the right, images courtesy of Weatherbell. The models are forecasting accumulated snowfall to reach significant amounts in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS believes much of Virginia will experience the brunt of this snowfall, with east Kentucky and east Tennessee getting in on the snowy fun. As far as the NAM model goes, a wide swath of snow appears forecasted across all of Virginia, especially in the western part of the states. Southern West Virginia is also primed for accumulating snowfall in the NAM's scenario, with KY and TN finding themselves with shovel-able snow.


Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/17/2013 07:33 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thursday, January 17, 2013Upper Stratosphere Experiences Polar Vortex Collapse
By Andrew at 2:50 PM

It now appears that the 10 millibar layer of the stratosphere has experienced a collapse of the polar vortex.

The above image shows a 6 day observation period of the stratosphere, with the first three days shown on the top half of the image and the most recent three days observed on the bottom half of the multi-panel image. You can see that recently, instead of two areas of yellows and greens, there is now one. These circles of brighter colors show the polar vortex, split into multiple vortices as a result of a phenomenon known as the sudden stratospheric warming.

In a sudden stratospheric warming, warm air is suddenly forced up through the stratosphere at varying degrees. The animation of the 10 millibar layer above (same atmospheric layer as the top image) confirms that we have seen (and continue to observe) a historic sudden stratospheric warming that has broken daily maximum stratospheric records. All that red on the image is unusually warm air. See how it can't be contained in the Arctic and has actually now gone into the East US? That's how strong this warming is.

Now, this collapse has some positive consequences for February, as far as winter prospects go. The collapse of this layer means other layers of the stratosphere are now also more prone to collapse, something we may see in the 20 millibar and 5 millibar layers. However, that's about as bad as it'll get- in the stratosphere. Down here in the troposphere, where we live, cold air is now provoked to move south and may have to spread to lower latitudes. It's a give and take scenario- warm air goes in the stratosphere, thus cold air is displaced down into the troposphere. If we can continue to see weakening (or even collapse) of the polar vortex at other levels, cold air becomes increasingly likely for the end of January into February, and I already have some indicators rooting for a very cold February.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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01/21/2013 10:09 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Sunday, January 20, 2013Stratospheric Warming Propagating To Lower Levels
By Andrew at 5:01 PM

Stratospheric warming that was observed earlier in January now appears to be trying to propagate down to lower levels of the stratosphere, a development that would enhance potentials for a polar vortex breakdown.

The image above shows observed temperature readings (in Celsius) of the stratosphere and the troposphere for January through March of this year. However, because we are in January, that's all that has been filled in thus far. If you look at the colored portion of the image and see the encircled section, you will notice deep reds. This is the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) phenomenon I have been discussing for days on end. When there is a SSW, warm air is forced into the stratosphere, weakening the semi-permanent Arctic polar vortex and permitting cold air to make a run at lower latitudes.

Usually, sudden stratospheric warmings will come and go, and their effects will come and go as well. Warm air pushed skywards will typically dissipate when the warming event has ceased. However, this time around, warming from recent SSW's is making its way downwards, filtering through the upper stratosphere down into the lower levels of the stratosphere. This, as previously mentioned, should coerce the polar vortex into at least a small degree of weakening; the extent of which is unknown at the moment.

If this warming filtration can persist, the polar vortex will continue to sustain very heavy damage, continuing to open the door wider for a colder back-end of winter in coming weeks.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Historic Sudden Stratospheric Warming Continues
By Andrew at 5:01 PM

The historic sudden stratospheric warming continues to raise eyebrows of forecasters everywhere, as the observed temperatures at the 70 millibar level are setting new records for stratospheric temperatures.

This sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) was predicted a while in advance by The Weather Centre, but the magnitude of this warming was severely underestimated. Records have been shattered across the board, especially at the 70 millibar level, as shown above. The red line of observed temperatures has passed above the thin gray line, which is the record stratospheric temperature for that day. It is safe to say this winter will go down as a historic one, as far as the stratosphere goes.

So we have a very much historic SSW happening. As I have explained, there is a 2-4 week lag between the warming event and cold weather reaching the surface. If we saw a record-breaking warming like this, one can only imagine the potential there is for severe cold to hit the United States. The reason I say potential is because the cold's path will be determined by the atmospheric pattern at the time, something that will take another several days to determine.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

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