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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 07:08 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Last Ice Age took just SIX months to arrive

It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research.

Previous studies have suggested the arrival of the last Ice Age nearly 13,000 years ago took about a decade - but now scientists believe the process was up to 20 times as fast.

In scenes reminiscent of the Hollywood blockbuster The day After Tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere was frozen by a sudden slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which allowed ice to spread hundreds of miles southwards from the Arctic.

Geological sciences professor William Patterson, who led the research, said: 'It would have been very sudden for those alive at the time. It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.'

[link to www.sott.net]
 Quoting: Gregor Samsa


hf Thank you so much for this info!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Honest opinion, Is this a real option? what is the worst case scenario?
 Quoting: Liquid_Pestilence


i can't tell nothing about it yet... i sware i will post it as soon as i'm certain of the answer!!!
Liquid_Pestilence

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12/24/2012 07:13 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
thanks! I understand.

hf
"Fear paints pictures of ghosts and hangs them in the gallery of ignorance." Robert Green Ingersoll
Gregor Samsa

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Turkey
12/24/2012 07:13 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
hf Thank you so much for this info!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


hf
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 07:15 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Atmospheric Analysis and Forecast - December 22, 2012
By Andrew at 10:22 PM
Might as well give you all an update on my thinking for the next few weeks on a more informal basis than a Long Range Lookout and the like.

In the near future, I'm seeing the polar vortex get exiled into western Eurasia, a move that will then provoke high pressure to build in the Arctic. Such a situation would most certainly send the stratosphere into quite a phase of turbulence as the Pacific jet stream is tightened. Should the polar vortex try and shift into the North Pacific as long range forecasts indicate, the emergence of a Rex Block is not all that far fetched.

Considering the formation of a Rex Block in the future, the prospects for cold and snow to reach the US would only increase. An already troubled stratosphere, troubled polar vortex and Rex Block would combine to bring the Central and East US a high dosage of cold to the region. The southern storm track would amplify in response to the Rex Block, and the lack of a polar vortex in its domain means higher chances for a negative NAO. All in all, good stuff for the Northeast.

I wish to express that this is indeed a changing pattern, and the models are never good with such a situation. However, I have high confidence that the stratosphere will enter this turbulent phase, meaning the polar vortex is no longer going to be so prone to sticking in its spot. Further displacement of the vortex at different levels in the stratosphere would bring the vortex to its knees. Copious amounts of cold air would be released, and all the sudden winter coats are flying off the shelves in America.


We are seeing our prolonged cold spell in Eurasia leave, in direct response to the departure of warmer stratospheric values over the region. As this warmer stratospheric air departs, temperatures will moderate in those regions. Now, we see the long range having the stratosphere warmth moving into Canada. That does mean that potential for significant cold, as seen in Eurasia, would theoretically be possible. The likelihood of such a cold air mass propagating down to the lower latitudes would be pretty decent, but you're going to want to watch the West Coast for a potential Rex Block. Such a blocking pattern would no doubt pave the way for significant cold to break through into the Central and East US.
Overall, a definite improvement is incoming, regardless of the Rex Block. I can see the stratosphere will cooperate with what I have described above, and if warm air continues to propagate to the stratosphere for more and more time, the odds increase of the polar vortex succumbing to its wounds. That would mean the entire Arctic would be unleashed across the lower latitudes, but that's a whole other post for a whole other time. [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Last Edited by Luisport on 12/24/2012 07:18 AM
Anonymous Coward
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Luxembourg
12/24/2012 07:16 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What the fuck is this vortex shit?

What vortex?

Someone explain to me please?? I dont understand this
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 07:20 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What the fuck is this vortex shit?

What vortex?

Someone explain to me please?? I dont understand this
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30767776


This is about Polar vortex change that is allready taking place and it's possible collapse to January. polar vortex: [link to en.wikipedia.org]
Anonymous Coward
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France
12/24/2012 07:22 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well, Russia is already facing heavy minus temperatures... maybe harbingers of more to come.
 Quoting: Artaius


so imagine if this happen now, in US and Europe will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


This... Russia is prepared to cold, but if this happens in South Europa (or even western)... hiding
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 07:26 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Well, Russia is already facing heavy minus temperatures... maybe harbingers of more to come.
 Quoting: Artaius


so imagine if this happen now, in US and Europe will be thousands of deaths!
 Quoting: Luisport


This... Russia is prepared to cold, but if this happens in South Europa (or even western)... hiding
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8298598


or US...
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
12/24/2012 07:29 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What the fuck is this vortex shit?

What vortex?

Someone explain to me please?? I dont understand this
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30767776


The 2004 movie The Day After Tomorrow depicted three extremely strong polar vortices developing over and devastating the northern half of the globe.
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 07:32 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
What the fuck is this vortex shit?

What vortex?

Someone explain to me please?? I dont understand this
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30767776


The 2004 movie The Day After Tomorrow depicted three extremely strong polar vortices developing over and devastating the northern half of the globe.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28198895


yes, when the polar vortex collapse, several little ones form and disperse...
Liquid_Pestilence

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United States
12/24/2012 07:35 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
The Day After Tomorrow depicts this exact situation right. I know in a doomy Hollywood way, but the the underlying plot is spot on correct?
"Fear paints pictures of ghosts and hangs them in the gallery of ignorance." Robert Green Ingersoll
Gregor Samsa

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Turkey
12/24/2012 07:39 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Last Ice Age took just SIX months to arrive

It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research.

Previous studies have suggested the arrival of the last Ice Age nearly 13,000 years ago took about a decade - but now scientists believe the process was up to 20 times as fast.

In scenes reminiscent of the Hollywood blockbuster The day After Tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere was frozen by a sudden slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which allowed ice to spread hundreds of miles southwards from the Arctic.

Geological sciences professor William Patterson, who led the research, said: 'It would have been very sudden for those alive at the time. It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.'

[link to www.sott.net]
 Quoting: Gregor Samsa


hf Thank you so much for this info!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Honest opinion, Is this a real option? what is the worst case scenario?
 Quoting: Liquid_Pestilence


Many scientists predict a coming little ice age in 2-5 years. And of course it's also sun related. When we talk about 'mini' ice age it's not like major glacial periods when most parts of Northern Hemisphere were covered with 2-3 kms thick ice sheets, but still dramatic especially considering the current situation of the modern civilization. Imagine longer and colder winters increasingly and almost no real summer for decades.

[link to iceagenow.info]

[link to www.croatiantimes.com]
Anonymous Coward
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France
12/24/2012 07:42 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Another made up lying American thread yet again you useless bunch of cunts oops cunts are useful you pricks arnt now do us all a favour and fuck off you arseholes
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30734160


Aah, the Christmas spirit..;
hf
Gregor Samsa

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Turkey
12/24/2012 07:44 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Another made up lying American thread yet again you useless bunch of cunts oops cunts are useful you pricks arnt now do us all a favour and fuck off you arseholes
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30734160


Aah, the Christmas spirit..;
hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8298598


or famous last words hiding
Liquid_Pestilence

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United States
12/24/2012 07:52 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
should we be looking for land in mexico, is that why obumma gave the mexicans them guns..

[link to iceagenow.info] that is showing where i live under ice..
"Fear paints pictures of ghosts and hangs them in the gallery of ignorance." Robert Green Ingersoll
Major
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12/24/2012 08:00 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
Anonymous Coward
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France
12/24/2012 08:05 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
should we be looking for land in mexico, is that why obumma gave the mexicans them guns..

[link to iceagenow.info] that is showing where i live under ice..
 Quoting: Liquid_Pestilence


Europe during last ice age:
[link to www.iceagenow.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/24/2012 08:10 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
 Quoting: Major 16137923


This.
Luisport (OP)

User ID: 30765499
12/24/2012 08:12 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
 Quoting: Major 16137923


My friend i really can't tell, this all situation is changing very fast. Iceland for example reach the lowest temperature ever redorded and it's still dropping, so for now i can't, but i will post everything i know and you can see this links too: [link to www.boards.ie] [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]
beeches

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12/24/2012 08:13 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
 Quoting: Major 16137923


Tell us: how soon

how cold

how much snow.


Thank you Luisport. The above poster said it for me.

Last Edited by beeches on 12/24/2012 08:14 AM
A New Year, A New Chance
Anonymous Coward
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France
12/24/2012 08:17 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
 Quoting: Major 16137923


Tell us: how soon

how cold

how much snow.


Thank you Luisport. The above poster said it for me.
 Quoting: beeches


It's not possible to predict that. Even with a stable model, there a lot of uncertainties, so if the vortex collapses, it will be a one day at time forecast.
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 08:20 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisport, Could you break it down clearly for the novice weather folk here exactly what may happen, where, when, How cold. Where in the U.S. And Europe/Asia. Even if your assessment is uncertain, I would still like a simple breakdown of the data. As many here have said, Thank you for starting up this discussion and everyone's contributions. I live in Texas and work outside. Will Texas get a hit by any of this cold weather?
 Quoting: Major 16137923


Tell us: how soon

how cold

how much snow.


Thank you Luisport. The above poster said it for me.
 Quoting: beeches


It's not possible to predict that. Even with a stable model, there a lot of uncertainties, so if the vortex collapses, it will be a one day at time forecast.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 8298598


yes that's it, and events are changing very fast... Thank you my friend. Can you develop this issue?
insertfunnyusername

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12/24/2012 08:40 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 08:55 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Cold Wave in India on Monday, 24 December, 2012 at 12:53 (12:53 PM) UTC.

Description
Even as the fog receded in most parts of Uttar Pradesh Monday, 26 people have died in the last 24 hours because of the extreme cold, officials said. The deaths were reported from Basti (6), Jaunpur (4), Ballia (4), Mirzapur (2), Varanasi, Bhadohi and Chandauli (1 each). Dense fog has also caused road accidents, in which as many as six have died. With mercury falling below 11 degrees Celsius in the day, and with minimum temperature falling below four degrees Celsius, the district magistrate of Lucknow has ordered closure of all schools and colleges in the state capital till January 5. Timings for class 11 and 12 have also been revised, and schools are set to open at 10 a.m. Met director J.P. Gupta said conditions would not improve in the coming week. Fog and bitter cold would continue in most parts of the state. Fog also disrupted train schedules, and more than 50 trains were running late Monday morning. All major trains from the union capital Delhi to Lucknow were running late by several hours. The Shatabdi Express was running late by five hours, while the Lucknow Mail was running late by three hours, officials said. (Average journey time by Shatabdi is six hours, 22 minutes.) Long-distance trains were running late by several hours and the Barauni Express had to be cancelled by the Northern Railways. Four flights were cancelled Sunday evening as the visibility at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Amausi airport did not improve. Many flight passengers hoped that the weather would improve, but were in for disappointment as major flyers like Jet Airways and Indigo said they would not be able to fly the late evening flights due to poor visibility.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
littlemiracles

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12/24/2012 09:13 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to photoblog.nbcnews.com]
Anonymous Coward
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12/24/2012 09:15 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I CAN'T WAIT!!!

BRING THE ICE DOOM ON!!!


5a
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 09:48 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Major Midwinter Warming

"A Stratospheric Major Midwinter Warming (MMW) is defined by a reversal of the temperature gradient (at the 10hPa level) between the North Pole and 60°N (i.e., polar region warmer ) – and by a reversal of the normal westerlies to easterlies (winds from the east), i.e. a negative AO."
Anonymous Coward
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Sweden
12/24/2012 10:09 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisporto; please, i understand you cant predict this. But suposing a worst case scenario, what is your opinion regarding lowest estimated tems in Scandinavia?
Secondly; what would be the first, clear and undeniable evidences to keep an eye open for?

Thans for your great job, i cant imagine how many hours you put into this. And still, among all crap posts on glp yts obvious most people here respects your work.

Best wishes from northern Sweden...see why i am concerned?
Uruguayan in Sweden
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 10:14 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Luisporto; please, i understand you cant predict this. But suposing a worst case scenario, what is your opinion regarding lowest estimated tems in Scandinavia?
Secondly; what would be the first, clear and undeniable evidences to keep an eye open for?

Thans for your great job, i cant imagine how many hours you put into this. And still, among all crap posts on glp yts obvious most people here respects your work.

Best wishes from northern Sweden...see why i am concerned?
Uruguayan in Sweden
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30307190


Hello my friend, i imagine that an Uruguayan in Sweden suffer with cold... but this is an extremely difficult issue. Very difficult to me too. I promiss all that i will give all data i can in short time ok?hf
Luisport (OP)

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12/24/2012 10:17 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Quote:




Originally Posted by Luisport

Hi everyone, this is my first post here! A portuguese forecaster say that we will see a polar vortex collapse in the first 10 days of January. What do you think about this? I don't understand nothing of it yet, so what could happen if this massive event take place? Thank you everyone for all this information posted here!
[link to www.boards.ie]
Depends on where it collapsed.
Down into Canada or even Russia wouldn't be much use here.
In 2010 it broke and fell down into the north sea and the rest as they say is history.
That usually replaces behind with high pressure that if as can happen (and did in Nov Dec 2010) it links mid Atlantic with another high..then your winds turn north and north east advecting very icy air to us.

Thats as layman as I can describe.

That said,Portuguese man has no way of knowing what's to happen in chaos theory, so if right he's a lucky guesser.

In this thread,we're discussing a possible warming of the upper atmosphere in polar regions that could cause another 2010 as described.
Could but so many variables,we just don't know.
These things have a nasty habit of bringing snow to Athens rather than Dublin mostly.

Hope that helps

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