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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

 
Gregor Samsa

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12/25/2012 09:41 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
I think we are fucked.

New Doom 100% Sure. Ice Age!

Get your diapers ready.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30828591


Brace yourselves winter is coming

wintercoming
To know means to know all. Not to know all means not to know. In order to know all, it is only necessary to know a little. But, in order to know this little, it is first necessary to know pretty much.
G.I. Gurdjieff
KartAnimal29

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12/25/2012 10:33 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Interesting
Newbie78

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12/25/2012 12:45 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
hiding
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 01:12 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Da fuq

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12/25/2012 01:17 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Imagine if the ice age went down and everyone ran to the equator. Just as the last of the survivors show up the poles then proceed to shift.

trolled
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 04:28 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
So any news yet about where this is going soon. Need a BC Canada Forecast.

Your the best weather man around. Marry Christmas and God Bless you. Were lucky to have you.
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Da fuq

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12/25/2012 04:29 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Speaking of the weather and Galactic Cosmic Rays, the IPCC's (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report has been leaked worldwide on the internet. The leaker's evaluation of the data points to a bigger Solar/GCR influence on climate than man-made fuels or cow farts.

*The IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) 5th Assessment Report due for release in September of 2013, has now been leaked publicly over 9 months in advance on an internet publication called “Stop Green Suicide“.
One of the reports 800 expert reviewers, a man by the name of Alex Rawls, apparently leaked the report and is backing it with written evidence that cosmic rays are actually the cause of climate change and warming patterns, thus possibly blowing the lid off the whole entire global warming fraud pushed by figureheads such as Al Gore and others.


This is from the Leaker's analysis:

**Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence ("many empirical relationships") for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don't know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC's computer models is seen to be "solar irradiance."

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 "further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change" (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity "explains" in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

Complete Leaked 5th Assessment Report w/ analysis:

[link to stopgreensuicide.com]

This is pretty huge! This should be a page one pinned thread. In brief, they're saying (on one hand) that Global Warming is still our fault; while (on the other hand) their evidence is proof that unknown solar and cosmic factors are a much bigger influence. Oh well, now the cover-up can begin, LOL.


**** Notice the rise in cosmic ray density on the 23rd!!!! [link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu] byekitty

Last Edited by Da fuq on 12/25/2012 04:30 PM
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 05:53 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 05:56 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
chilly
DUCM900

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12/25/2012 07:00 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
3 days ago in my city it was -25C
now its +3C
can someone explain ?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1419878


And what about the sideway moon even on the northern regions since months?


-
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 09:16 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
3 days ago in my city it was -25C
now its +3C
can someone explain ?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1419878


And what about the sideway moon even on the northern regions since months?


-
 Quoting: DUCM900


Tilt. Wobble Wobble Wobble

Tilt. Wobble. Wobble. Wobble

Our Magnetosphere is taking hits and the Earth is starting to list around. This will get worse. There is a disturbance in the force. There was a severe compression of the Magnetoshere today.
DUCM900

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12/25/2012 10:35 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Imagine if the ice age went down and everyone ran to the equator. Just as the last of the survivors show up the poles then proceed to shift.

trolled
 Quoting: Da fuq


1011
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 10:40 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
Da fuq

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12/25/2012 10:44 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Thread: THIS IS IT ... The reason for all the extreme weather across the world, plus every other anomaly currently happening.
Crazy Harriet

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12/26/2012 01:26 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Want to keep an eye on this thread cause not exactly sure what a polar vortex would look like if it exploded and maybe we'll find out....
It is unwise to be too sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err. Mahatma Ghandi
Anonymous Coward
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12/26/2012 01:59 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bumpbumpbump Whats Happening...?
Anonymous Coward
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12/26/2012 04:33 AM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Want to keep an eye on this thread cause not exactly sure what a polar vortex would look like if it exploded and maybe we'll find out....
 Quoting: Crazy Harriet


It could look like "the Day After", certainly less spectacular, but the model used for the scenario wasn't totally fictive.
SkinnyChic

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12/26/2012 11:16 AM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
SkinnyChic
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12/26/2012 12:59 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bumpbumpbump
beeches

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12/26/2012 02:03 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
No winter last year,i say bring it !
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11193967


I'm with you! So hungry for snow and cold here -
bring on the freeze pleeze!!
 Quoting: beeches


Dam fools!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 27211004


How is it foolish to wish for normal weather in the winter?
Now is the time.
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 03:02 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

While Lower-48 is ~2°C above normal for December, looks like Russia is 3 or 4 times colder, -20°C below norm in KZ [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 03:48 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
[link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 03:57 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Today, 16:53

Not really much of the vortex left on the GFS 12Z: [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 04:05 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Today, 08:53

Zonal winds at 1 hpa heading through the floor,10 hpa and 30 hpa already low and falling.




Let the games begin! (somewhere)


edit.

just groping around in FI at 100mb seems to show a split vortex,with one chunk over siberia
and the other west of greenland with big height rises to our north.

Possible easterly solution for mid month?



Edited by Cloud 10, Today, 09:12.
[link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 04:07 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
sebastiaan1973, on 26 December 2012 - 07:47 , said:


If I'm right (?), I see almost a SSW. The winds are almost negative (1.88 m/s)


Its reversed at 7 hpa! Presumably technical SSW forecast at jan 5th on todays ecm. The zonal wind chart shows how close the blue area of reversal is to 10hpa.

The same chart also shows this general drop in winds in the upper strat pushes some slightly stronger winds into the lower strat which might explain why we are currently seeing a lack of trop response in the latter part of ncep output.

The wave 1 acivity enormous in the 7/10 day period which would indicate a displacement SSW. However, at the same time, we see some wave 2 appear and although nothing like the strength of the wave 1, it seems it maybe enough to split the weakenng vortex.

wonderful xmas watching and large parts of the NH mid latitudes are sure to see a frigid back end jan and feb. others will not. [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 04:13 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted Yesterday, 17:42


POPULAR

Well Christmas has presented us with the first SSW forecasts as far as I can make out from the last two GFS runs. Two different types as well, which highlights the difficulty the models have in determining how exactly the warming will effect the mid stratospheric vortex.

Firstly the 06Z run has a displacement SSW at 10 hpa



followed by the 12Z which suggests a split in the vortex - probably some wave two activity following the wave 1 activity (with still further warming programmed on this one) :



We are now seeing the warming entering a more reasonable timeframe with an incredible 11.2ºC forecast at T+204 at 10 hPa:



Will the ECM start to show this tomorrow?

I think that the differences in how the warming affects the vortex in the consecutive runs suggest that it is too early to work out how this could filter down to the troposphere. Presently, I see no favourable displacement or split forecast at lower levels - but this could change dramatically over the next week or two. We would much rather have the vortex disruption programmed rather than not at this point! [link to forum.netweather.tv]
Luisport (OP)

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12/26/2012 04:21 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
Posted 30 September 2012 - 00:42


POPULAR

Welcome to the new season stratosphere thread for the 2012/2013 stratospheric NH winter.

With the excitement building and expectations high for the coming winter, the role of the polar stratosphere will play an important part in determining what type of winter we shall have.

As ever for those new to the stratospheric input I will include in this post a basic guide to how the stratosphere may influence tropospherical weather systems before looking at what we can expect this winter.

The stratosphere is the layer of the atmosphere situated between 10km and 50km above the earth. It is situated directly above the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere that is directly responsible for the weather that we receive. The boundary between the stratosphere and the troposphere is known as the tropopause. The air pressure ranges from around 100hPa at the lower levels of the stratosphere to around 1hPa at the upper levels. The middle stratosphere is often considered to be around the 30hPa level.

Every winter the stratosphere cools down dramatically as less solar UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone content in the stratosphere. The difference in the temperature between the North Pole and the latitudes further south creates a strong vortex – the wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. The colder the stratosphere, the stronger this vortex becomes. The stratospheric vortex has a strong relationship with the tropospheric vortex below. The stronger the stratospheric vortex, the stronger the tropospheric vortex becomes.

The strength and position of the tropospheric vortex influences the type of weather that we are likely to experience. A strong polar vortex is more likely to herald a positive AO with the resultant jet stream track bringing warmer wet southwesterly winds. A weaker polar vortex can contribute to a negative AO with the resultant mild wet weather tracking further south.



The stratosphere is a far more stable environment then the troposphere below it. However, there are certain influences that can bring about changes - the stratospheric ozone content, the phase of the solar cycle, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation ( the QBO), wave breaking events from the troposphere and the autumnal Eurasion/Siberian snow cover to name but a few.

The ozone content in the polar stratosphere has been shown to be destroyed by CFC's permeating to the stratosphere from the troposphere but there can be other influences as well. Ozone is important because it absorbs UV radiation which creates warming of the stratosphere. The Ozone is formed in the tropical stratosphere and transported to the polar stratosphere by a system known as the Brewer-Dobson -Circulation. The strength of this circulation varies from year to year and can in turn be dictated by other influences.

One of these influences is the QBO. This is a tropical stratospheric wind that descends in an easterly then westerly direction over a period of around 28 months. This can have a direct influence on the strength of the polar vortex in itself. The easterly (negative ) phase is though to contribute to a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, whilst a westerly (positive) phase is thought to increase the strength of the stratospheric vortex. However, in reality the exact timing and positioning of the QBO is not precise and the timing of the descending wave is critical throughout the winter.

The direction of the QBO when combined with the level of solar flux has been shown to influence the BDC. When the QBO is in a west phase during solar maximum there are more warming events (increased strength BDC) in the stratosphere as there is during an easterly phase QBO during solar minimum. ( [link to strat-www.met...-et-al-2006.pdf] )

The QBO is measured at 30 hPa and has been in an easterly phase since August 2011 ( [link to www.esrl.noaa...lation] The easterly phase is likely to come to an end at 30 hPa over the coming winter, however, even after this we are likely to see easterly winds descend the stratosphere spreading polewards for some time yet.

The easterly QBO winds can be demonstrated on the following zonal wind stratospheric profile chart:





One warming event that can occur in the stratospheric winter is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming ( SSW) or also known as a Major Midwinter Warming (MMW). This as the name suggests a rather dramatic event. Normally the polar night jet at the boundary of the polar vortex demarcates the boundary between warmer tropical and cooler polar stratospheric air (and ozone levels) and is very difficult to penetrate. SSWs can be caused by large-scale planetary waves being deflected up into the stratosphere and towards the North Pole, often after a strong mountain torque event. These waves can introduce warmer temperatures into the polar stratosphere and can seriously disrupt the stratospheric vortex, leading to a slowing or even reversal of the vortex. This can occur by the vortex being displaced off the pole – a displacement SSW, or by the vortex being split in two – a splitting SSW.

The effects of a SSW can be transmitted into the troposphere as the propagation of the SSW occurs and this can have a number of consequences. There is a higher incidence of northern blocking after SSW’s but we are all aware that not every SSW leads to northern blocking. Any northern blocking can lead to cold air from the tropospheric Arctic flooding south and colder conditions to latitudes further south can ensue. There is often thought to be a time lag between a SSW and northern blocking from any downward propagation of negative mean zonal winds from the stratosphere. This has been quoted as up to 6 weeks though it can be a lot quicker if the polar vortex is ripped in two following a split SSW.

One noticeable aspect of the recent previous winters is how the stratosphere has been susceptible to wave breaking from the troposphere through the lower reaches of the polar stratosphere - not over the top as seen in the SSWs. This has led to periods of sustained tropospheric high latitude blocking and repeated lower disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex. This has coincided with a warmer stratosphere where the mean zonal winds have been reduced and has led to some of the most potent winter spells witnessed in recent years.

So the question to be asked is are we able to predict how the stratosphere is likely to behave this year. The real answer is not yet, though there are some aspects that we can use as a guide looking at previous years.

The most useful of these is the easterly descending QBO. We know that the stratospheric polar vortex is a lot weaker in easterly years and more susceptible to disruption. Combine this with what is in effect a low solar maximum then this may enhance this effect. See post from GP in last thread regarding analogue year 1968-69

I have been collecting relavent papers regarding the role of the stratosphere and other influences and they can be found here - [link to forum.netweat...nective-papers]

I am starting this thread earlier than normal because of the increased importance that has been placed on the role of the stratosphere since I first monitored a few years back. Rather than being viewed as a small piece in the jigsaw, it is being realised that the state of the stratosphere can/may overrule all other teleconnective pieces. Last years cold stratosphere demonstrated this only too well.

So it is eyes down (or up!) in the coming weeks to monitor how the polar stratosphere cools and what affect this has on the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex.

There are a number of sites that provide information regarding this.

Firstly, the two important sites that can be used to look at the temperature profiles are:

[link to acdb-ext.gsfc...t]

and

[link to www.cpc.ncep....re]

Graphically and previous years information :

[link to www.cpc.ncep....ere]

and

[link to www.geo.fu-be...pole]

Forecasts:

[link to wekuw.met.fu-...]

and

[link to www.cpc.ncep....here]

and not forgetting!

[link to www.netweathe...atosphere;sess=] (more available on nw extra!)


So, as ever, we have a lot to keep an eye on. Early indications suggest that the polar stratosphere is cooling pretty much as expected. I am happy to report that there are already signs that this cooling is not uniform, with a Canadian warming a possibility this autumn. It's early days to see a slightly warmer area, but the GFS forecast does suggest this-



An early heartener!

Happy strat watching fellow strat watchers!

c [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Last Edited by Luisport on 12/26/2012 04:22 PM
Anonymous Coward
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12/26/2012 04:37 PM
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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
bump
DUCM900

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12/26/2012 04:38 PM

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Re: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
this ----> Thread: The Moon Contiunues To Be Seen Often In Sideway Mode Even in the Northern Latitude Regions



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