2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

Site forecast team

2,620 posts
Gender:Male
Location:Coventry,Warwickshire


Posted 6 minutes ago

It looks to me like a fairly standard displacement of the stratospheric vortex that happens quite often at this time of year. At upper levels in the stratosphere the vortex is displaced towards the UK and at lower levels towards Russia. If anything it is a little late this year.

In terms of what we can expect then I think we will see high pressure spreading from the south to cover the UK. So I would be thinking a few days of cooler temperatures with perhaps some fog.

Followed closely by a brief northerly spell. This could give snow but the ice sheet to our north has been disrupted and held back by the recent icelandic lows.Considering other spells similar to this then you might be thinking about snow for Scotland or through the cheshire gap. If it continues for more than a few days then you might start to think about polar lows coming south from off the coast of Norway. At the moment it just looks like a brief northerly , but it is way too early to tell.

What it does mean is that the siberian high gets disrupted with more mobile weather crossing the likes of Norway and Novaya Zemlya. It is my contention that mountain torque from these areas (think wave breaking or low pressure systems crossing the mountains) are key areas for planetary waves which can disrupt the stratospheric vortex. In other words this displacement could set us up for another warming in around a months time.

What we can be sure about is that the events in the stratosphere now are setting us up for a change in pattern and for once I will be rather glad to say goodbye to the icelandic low for a bit.


Following chart from this link [link to www.ecmwf.int...]
[link to forum.netweather.tv]

Posted A minute ago

Major SSW is looking likely, which will cause a displacement of the vortex. The vortex will then split several days after this as well though.


Interesting strat temperature from the 12z today, going for a second warming, this time over Canada. The PV must be getting fed up of this now.

[link to postimage.org] [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Posted 20 minutes ago


Bishop Brennan, on 27 December 2012 - 12:13 , said:


I think I'm right in saying that the date of the forecasted SSW has actually moved forward somewhat, from Jan 10th to Jan 5th or thereabouts.

Bish


Based on the latest ECM forecast an SSW is set to occur on the 4th of January.
[link to forum.netweather.tv]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Cold colors on the KNYC ECMWF ensemble minimum temperature quilt from 00z through the New Year. [link to twitter.com]

Thursday, December 27, 2012Sudden Stratospheric Warming About To Take Place
By Andrew at 10:47 AM

Animations of the 50mb temperature level (as shown above) suggest that a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is about to take place.

The above animation covers 30 days and shows two warmings. The first stratospheric warming is shown in the first week of December with a big red blob flowing into the Arctic. Fast forward ahead to today and we find another huge red blob beginning to make a move into the Arctic. Why can I tell? In the last two or three frames, you can see the small lines start to push up into the Arctic in response to warm air pushing north- a common trait with how stratospheric warmings happen.

A chart of observed 70mb temperatures shown above clearly shows the aforementioned warmings. The first stratospheric warming is shown as the first red spike on the far right of this graph, and the recent warming (and soon to be SSW event) is shown at the very end of the image.

This was all mentioned in yesterday's big stratospheric post (link here) in how warming in the stratosphere will provoke the polar vortex to sustain heavy damage, possibly to the point of collapse in upper stratospheric levels. That means cold weather starting mid January.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

[link to www.meteociel.fr]

watching this closely

My friend this forum is very very good! [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Thanks!

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Major stratwarm getting ready to start precursor to major US cold outbreaks. Plenty of winter this year [link to twitter.com]

Last time a checked the polar vortex is forecasted to redevelop and drop down into east Canada. This happens all the time and leads to a VERY cold forecast, but when the polar vortex drops like this it usually suppresses storms

care to provide a link of that said forecast?

[link to www.meteo.psu.edu]

GFS at 180 hours is showing it dropping down like I said and temperatures are pushing -20 at 850 millibars

GFS is also showing 0 degrees pushing all the way down to north Texas. Brrrrrr cold

shortly, this means we're all gonna die

bane

Noun

1 A cause of great distress or annoyance.
2 Something, typically poison, that causes death.

And a common assumption people make is that Stratospheric warming is ONLY related to solar activity which is 100% wrong. There is a strong coloration between heat energy being transferred from the equator up to the polar region this time of year which has a effect on the stratosphere also.

could be worse....

in the low teens up north

yikes

65 percent of USA covered by snow

by ROBERT on DECEMBER 27, 2012 ·

[link to iceagenow.info]

wow very interesting

Central and Eastern Europe has some interesting drop in the ozone levels, maybe this explains plus 15 Celsius on the Austrian sky resorts?

[link to exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca]

Also I noticed an unusual increase of the ozone levels along the US - Canada border, curiously this overlaps the snow storm. This ozone drop and increase only shows something that happens in the upper atmosphere, but still cant figure out what exactly..

There's a Southern Polar Vortex too?

yes

In the southern hemisphere, it tends to be located near the edge of the Ross ice shelf near 160 west longitude.
[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Sorry DUCM900, any idea where and when the video was made?

fake...Obviously

Canada's weather is so diverse. The West Coast and BC wet and warmer. The Prairies colder in the winter. Ontario and Quebec is effected by the Great Lakes. The Maritimes effected by the East Coast stuff.

What do you think the weather in Southwestern BC will be like if all this happens the way its looking....?

Please...! Have livestock and lots of other critters. Should I get ready to break out the horse blankets...?