2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

Nice research, thanks a lot! Hope that local meteorological centers of each country will inform citizens on time.

:BUMPS:

doOM? Food supplies weakening do to shift related fertile lands?

Hey Tass hope you're doing well, much love your way!

[link to www.wunderground.com]

Recretos

Posted 4 minutes ago

Regardless of the downwelling, what we shall see (or what I see at the moment, and maybe most of you too) in the "near" future is the split connection between troposphere and stratosphere. I think that should be obvious by now. Of course given the wave2 "positioning", the tropospheric "split" dynamics are just as much tropospheric forced as they are stratospheric forced.
Regards. [link to forum.netweather.tv]

#1773 Isolated Frost
Posted 24 minutes ago

With the strat warming now beginning to be shown in the latest tropo charts, I was wondering about the effects of the 1-wave, 2-wave pattern and the general effects of Rossby waves.

First let us look at the current scenario. (excuse my paint skills!!)
note: the line holding the 'purple' is sub 512, the line holding the 'blue' is sub 544, and the line holding the 'green/yellow' is sub 576- everything above that (in red and orange) is over 576dm
note2: this is not a complete representation of the tropospherical shape atm- just values at 32dm margins that might show things more easily


The current flow shows a surging polar vortex- in a 'C' shape from Siberia, into Canada and out of Greenland- though it is not completely dominant as you can see an upper air polar high extending into the North Pole, with 540dm values.. this disrupts the general flow in the arctic, and the upcoming stratospheric warmings will most likely do more to it
note also the polar vortex segment by Newfoundland, though this can disrupt the flow, it is relatively small and intense, giving much of eastern Canada cold weather, though the attention must be paid to the eastern seaboard of the US, zonal as can be.
Another note is the little disruption near the UK, that is the subtropical ridge, which is normally positioned at 30N, this will be giving us rather mild weather this upcoming week- if you have a look at the 576dm line across the hemisphere, it is very zonal, and so we have got unlucky (or lucky) with it extending across only in our locale

Here is the GFS for d8 (11 Jan)- the polar vortex has been completely taken out by the polar high (see the small green segments and the light blue which is surrounded by the purples and dark blues)- the vortex has one segment over NE Canada, N Russia and N Japan- all of them relatively weak and meridional. The polar high is probably undermined by my drawing as you can see the long light blue ridge across the arctic... this is very positive and the perfect 'block' to begin with
note this time the 544dm (anything blue) line, it is very disturbed with a big drop in the mid-west of the USA, a big drop just to the west of the UK, and a big drop across central/eastern Europe- this is what we want to see
The 576dm line is nearly completely zonal, but this time the pacific high (part of the subtropical ridge) extends into the west of the US, instead of the UK/w Europe.

Here is a superb snapshot of a brilliant pattern.. the polar vortex (sub 512dm in this case) is extremely weak and split around, whilst if you look at the 544dm line, it is completely disturbed around the atlantic/europe- with a huge ridge built in the atlantic from Greenland, and a big drop of sub 544dm air across Europe... it is anything but zonal and the hemispherical pattern is disturbed... here's hoping for a similar scenario from the upcoming strat warming that are disturbing that 500mb pattern already [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Thanks, Luis!

Your dedication to research is astounding.

We are appreciative of your efforts!

I Love you all!!! We learn together!!!

Now we have 2 to 4 weeks so see the impact in surface from this collapse. There are the potential for some big changes.

Z

Thursday, January 3, 2013What I Expect For The End Of January
By Andrew at 12:00 PM
I have been talking a lot about the developing situation in the stratosphere, and have not really talked about what the end of January could be like. I think now's an appropriate time to do so.

The first thing to discuss is the stratosphere. As observed in the above animation, the month of January experienced two sudden stratospheric warmings- one centered over the Bering Sea, and the other (currently ongoing) centered over Canada. The ongoing SSW is the more significant warming between the two, with stronger and more widespread warming happening. With these sudden stratospheric warmings comes the movement of warm air. The basis of the SSW is anomalous warm air being forced up into the stratosphere, typically in response to some convection or torque-based event (there was a strong mountain torque event observed immediately prior to the ongoing SSW). With the forcing of this warm air is the weakening of the polar vortex, the driving force behind the Arctic Oscillation (AO), but that's a piece for later on. When you have large amounts of warm air being forced into the polar vortex, the vortex tends to go on a weakening trend. Depending on the strength and placement of the SSW, this weakening can be minor or catastrophic. This current warming looks to be enough to cause a split of the parent vortice into multiple daughter vortices.

In situations like these, I like to look at the polar vortex as an egg (bear with me on this one). When the SSW occurs and warm air is forced up, the polar vortex split can occur. Think of this as cracking the egg open, but not so far as to completely break it apart. The split of the vortex lets out a fair amount of cold air to lower latitudes but not the entire Arctic, similar to how a partial cracking of the egg leads to fair leakage of the inside contents but not the entire yolk.

Back to the relatonship of the SSW and anomalously cold air in the lower latitudes, there is typically a 1-3 week lag time. I prefer to use a 2-4 week lag time, because you're talking about thousands and thousands of feet to move air, and that takes time. Using that timeframe, and looking at the upcoming zonal-flow pattern ahead, I feel that the cold weather will be best felt beyond the third week of January, pretty much beyond January 20th. This will be of direct result from the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming, and the cold outbreak ought to last a good couple of weeks.

10mb temperature at Hour 384.
Hour 384 is notorious for never verifying, but this warming forecast has been appearing on several GFS model forecasts, meaning the model appears more certain that this will actually happen, rather than not happen. The warming looks to originate over central Canada, right in the heart of a daughter vortice at that same 10 millibar level. That would only bring further weakening to the polar vortex/vortices.

If there is in fact a third sudden stratospheric warming (which I believe is definitely a possibility), there is no doubt that the amount of damage done to the polar vortex will lead to another, possibly stronger cold outbreak. The polar vortices can only sustain so much damage before another split into multiple vortices would result in a loss of the polar vortex altogether. That said, if a third SSW does occur, February would be quite a chilly month for many, as I have been hinting at for some time now.

Models also are tending to agree with the prospects for a sharp cold outbreak towards the end of January. The above forecast is of the CFS v2 long range model's weekly forecasts, with the top image valid for January 16 - January 22, and the bottom image valid for January 23 - January 29. In both images, we see sharp cold overpowering the nation, and significant warming ongoing in northern Canada. This significant warming bodes well for a ridge of high pressure in east Canada, something that could provoke a west-based negative NAO, which brings the party to the East Coast as far as cold and snow goes. However, considering the high variability between these weekly forecasts, I am hesitant to trust that negative NAO forecast. The cold has been trending on the CFS weeklies for a while now, so I am not as concerned for a bust potential in the cold as I am for the negative NAO.

My concern rests in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is a forecast chart of the MJO, with the forecasts in colors and observed conditions in a gray-ish color. Note how all members are in fair agreement with the MJO cycling into Phases 5-7 with increasing strength as time goes on. This does not bode well for cold weather in the East US. On the contrary, Phases 5-7 are very favorable for warm conditions across the nation. Now, if the forecasts were weaker with Phases 5-7 (closer to the center circle), I would not be as concerned. But alas, the models are in moderate strength with the dreaded phases of 5-7. The MJO only tries to reach pro-cold phases 8-2 by the beginning of February, and even then the MJO starts to die off.

We have the ball rolling very well here, as far as getting the cold down to the US. The stratosphere is experiencing a very formidable sudden stratospheric warming, and that will get the cold down to the surface. The question is, can the stratosphere overcome the MJO to get that cold air to come into the US rather than other parts of the world? My answer is yes. I have a good feeling we will have a good negative NAO setting up in mid to late January as the split in the stratosphere is reciprocated in the troposphere by pieces of the polar vortex being displaced away from the Arctic Circle and allowing high pressure to build in that area. Greenland would also be affected by high pressure formation, and the negative NAO would form. I buy more into an east-based negative NAO than a west-based negative NAO at this time.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Good work Luisport
Back in 1985

Posted 8 minutes ago

GP touched on 1979, 1982 and 1987, a lot to note, but also a tad on the extensive warmings, and the relevance in the polar high dynamics for the year below
the relevance in the current tropospheric modelling also lies to a certain extent with 1985, an extensive polar high with cold in the UK mid-month.. and the polar vortex goes off on one, record breaker-
Sub 492dm in NE US, sub -30c 850s over much of the NE US.. a polar vortex displacement to an incredible extent

[link to forum.netweather.tv]

#1775 Isolated Frost
Posted 9 minutes ago

A little animation about the relative destruction of the vortex (this at 100hpa)
A combination of the fantastic NW Extra and some fab paint skills [link to picasion.com]

What i think is interesting and i mentioned it before in this thread...

but 1985 and 2013 both started on a Tuesday...
both years are mirror years... meaning that June 15th 1985 and June 15th 2012 falls on a Saturday.

This years calendar can be used as the 1985 calendar and vice versa.

The polar vortex for 2013 is looking very similar to the 1985 arctic outbreak right?

28 years apart...

So anyone know what 1957 was like?
(i searched and couldnt find anything)

but I'm seeing a pattern here...

does this happen every 28 years?

WOW!!! My friend your statement is brilliant! I do belive on this kind of cicles... maby there are a pathern here.

I second that motion!!! Great work here. :)

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At 5-days at 30 mb, that blob of warmth cuts across the pole. Process repeats again at Day 8. [link to twitter.com]

11 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Up at 30,000 meters, stratospheric temperatures are warm -- almost 10°C on Russian side of North Pole. GFS 10mb: [link to twitter.com]

2 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

UAH global temps for lower-troposphere, +0.2°C above 30-yr avg for 2012. Reanalysis derived 2-meter temp +0.1°C. Yawn.

Can you please explain what does it mean?

Thanks!

someone correct me if i am wrong...

But it means that the warming in the Stratosphere is in fact occurring...
that is what causes the Polar Vortex Partial/Full Collapse

Hmmm, than it has to be the second SSW!

Cern LHC ,and perhaps even the start of Blazar is the cause of this? Seems logical psszzz was very close to 100% accurate with his warnings of the horrific calamities of epic proportions to arrive after middle of December 2012

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Although I'm not finished going through the thread, I would like to make certain that EVERYONE viewing this thread goes to the above link, to at least see the maps --and hopefully read the report, which is amazing.

Within that link there's also a short, humorous youtube video that 'kinda' explains the difference between the GFS and European weather models. Any of us who tracked Sandy, got to learn how ACCURATE the European model can be at times.

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If the info is right, by the 17th of January even the Caribbean will be in a deep freeze!!

this is crazy!!!!