2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

#1783 Recretos
Posted Yesterday, 23:29


POPULAR

And off she goes!!

MJO forecasts looking better. Not really that awesome, but slowly trending to a better situation.

Looking at "nearby" future: (this maybe belongs in the model thread, but since it is stratosphere connected, I think it should stay in here, so when we look back at this thread in a year or two, all the info will be here, including model output during the event. )

Beautiful "tropospheric wave2".

Around that time, stratospheric wave2 slowly picking up.

Basically troposphere split down the middle. And not just troposphere, but also low and mid stratosphere.

Call me crazy, but the way I see all of this, is more or less in the same light as the dynamics back in late Nov/early Dec. The big difference is this time we have an SSW in the "game". Maybe this was already pointed out and I missed it.


Isolated Frost, on 03 January 2013 - 18:30 , said:


GP touched on 1979, 1982 and 1987, a lot to note, but also a tad on the extensive warmings, and the relevance in the polar high dynamics for the year below
the relevance in the current tropospheric modelling also lies to a certain extent with 1985, an extensive polar high with cold in the UK mid-month.. and the polar vortex goes off on one, record breaker-

There are some differences between these events. Most interesting being 87, with that SSW being barely a downweller.

Interesting dynamics ahead, my friends. A great opportunity for all of us to learn about these dynamics in "real-time".

An offtopic question: When comparing this thread to the SSW threads in the previous years, how "good" or informative is it?

Regards [link to forum.netweather.tv]

#1787 s4lancia
Posted Today, 01:08


TwisterGirl81, on 04 January 2013 - 00:46 , said:


Sorry I'm new to this...what do all the charts mean...worst case scenario, best scenario and then most likely? Some models are picking up some windstorms too...does this make sense?


The charts equate to the % chance of the UK getting decent snowy spell(s) over the next 6 weeks has risen significantly. In my view if we end up missing out from the effects of the warmings it will be pretty bad luck.

Worst case probably brief flirtations with cold with the blocking in exactly the wrong place, we watch on with frustation and envy whilst Europe goes in the freezer.

Best case. Think of the best winter spell you can ever remember.

Most likely? wouldn't want to hazard a guess.

What we do have is a guarantee of a fairly severe Northern hemispheric disruption. Standard W-E zonality will be turned on it's head as the winter vortex which drives this will be split wide apart. Cold outspill from the pole to much lower latitudes than is normal is highly likely, it's the longitudes of where that is the big question! [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Eric said...
Andrew good post, and I am really thinking we are going to see another warming event overtake the vortex later on thanks to this oncoming Kelvin Wave over the Pacific. As I explained in my post on December 9th on my site, these Kelvin Waves seem to be the source at which these warming events occur, and it makes a whole lot of sense to see another one in the longer ranges. Already we are faced with a situation under the current warming event for a nicely negative AO and NAO, but if we see another warming event on top of this one, you thought it was bad enough with one, how about another large warming event. I am definitely convinced at this time that late winter could indeed be brutal over the US, but time will tell.

January 3, 2013 3:18 PM
Andrew said...
Eric: I was reviewing the SOI recently and found a good drop in te last couple days. I thought we had a Potential Kelvin Wave ongoing, I went to your site and there you are, telling about the incoming Kelvin Wave. Top of the line work, as always! Love to see your insight, Eric, keep it coming!

January 3, 2013 6:21 PM
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New Delhi suffers though its coldest day in 44 years – 114 dead

Posted on January 4, 2013by The Extinction Protocol
January 4, 2013 – CLIMATE - New Delhi has suffered its coldest day in 44 years amid a cold snap across northern India, the local weather office said on Thursday. The maximum day temperature on Wednesday reached just 9.8 degrees Celsius (49.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the lowest since the winter of 1969 when records first began, an official in the local meteorological department told AFP, with a minimum of 4.8 Celsius. There is expected to be little respite in the coming few days with the weather office forecasting that chilly conditions will prevail. The unusual cold has been attributed to dense fog which has obscured the sun and disrupted airports and trains, as well as icy winds from the snowy Himalayas to the north. Winter in the Indian capital, home to 16.3 million people, usually lasts through January before giving way to spring and summer, when temperatures regularly rise to 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit).

More than 100 dead: At least 114 people have died from the cold in the state of Uttar Pradesh, a police spokesman, Surendra Srivastava, said yesterday. At least 23 of those died in the past 24 hours. Mr. Srivastava said many of the dead were poor people whose bodies were found on sidewalks or in parks. The weather department said temperatures in the state were between 4 and 10°C below normal. New Delhi suffered its coldest day in 44 years amid the cold snap across northern India, meteorologists said. The maximum temperature on Wednesday reached just 9.8°C, the lowest since the winter of 1969 – when records first began – with a low of 4.8°C. There is expected to be little respite in the coming few days with the weather office forecasting that chilly conditions will prevail. The unusual cold has been attributed to dense fog that has obscured the sun and disrupted air and rail services, as well as icy winds from the snowy Himalayas to the north. Winter in the Indian capital usually lasts through January before giving way to spring and summer, when temperatures regularly rise to 45°C. –The National

As globe warms, Alaska is cooling down: Fairbanks, Alaska (UPI) Despite a global trend of warming climate, Alaska has been experiencing a widespread cooling pattern for at least a decade, scientists say. In the first decade since 2000, the state has cooled an average of 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the online newspaper Alaska Dispatch reported. That’s a “large value for a decade,” the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in a report published in the Atmospheric Science Journal. Cooling temperatures have been recorded at 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations spread throughout Alaska, the report said. Parts of Western Alaska saw temperatures drop a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, it said. Researchers said the cooling was likely caused by an ocean phenomenon known as the Decadal Oscillation that moved colder surface water temperatures closer to Alaska. Researchers said it is unknown how long the cooling trend might last, although they noted the state experienced thirty years of relative cold climate starting in the mid-1940s. –Space Daily [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

Arctic ROLL.................

[link to articles.baltimoresun.com]

Friday, January 4, 2013Arctic Trifecta Could Lead To Brutal January-February
By Andrew at 8:22 AM
It is becoming increasingly apparent that three big atmospheric factors will have to combine in an Arctic Trifecta to make for a brutal end of January into February.

Part I: The Stratosphere

The stratosphere is one of the three big factors needed for a brutal back-end winter, as it is where the polar vortex is based. If we want cold weather, we need that polar vortex to break down.

Observed temperatures are shown on the two graphs above, with the 1 millibar level being shown in the top image, and the 10 millibar level temperatures depicted on the bottom image. These two images show a spike in temperatures in recent days, and this is in response to the big sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that is in India and spreading across much of Asia as an extreme SSW. The 50 millibar ongoing SSW has yet to be recognized at that level. Nonetheless, any progress is good progress as we will now see a round of damage be inflicted upon the polar vortex. This is the first warming of three that I am concerned about as far as implications on the polar vortex go, so we will move right along to the second warming.

The second warming event should take place in the next two weeks, and the ECMWF model is pinpointing its appearance in the 9-10 day range. Shown above is a forecast image of temperatures across the stratosphere and troposphere, the latter layer shown in the bottom part of the image. We want to pay attention to the upper stratosphere in this case. We see significant warm air anomalies prevalent in the upper stratosphere between 70 N and 90 N. A look at Days 6-8 forecasts reveals this warm air intrusion is only beginning on Day 10, and such an intrusion is signifying that, yes, the second warming event should be ongoing through Days 9-12. I cannot be confident on that timeframe, considering the ECMWF only goes as far out as Day 10. Any way you put it, this significant warming in the upper stratosphere bodes well for extensive damage being put on the polar vortex.

The negative zonal wind anomalies at the top of the right hand corner also suggest a second warming event is in the making. Notice the now-weakened polar vortex between 30N and 50N. This will only get weaker with this second warming, if the second warming turns out to be near the significance that the currently-ongoing one is having.

Skyrocketing heat flux forecast values and a downward-propagating geopotential Wave 2 forecast enhance the chances of a good second warming in the stratosphere:

Heat Flux Day 10 Forecast.
If the geopotential Wave 2 does propagate downwards with its higher heights (high pressure, observed by the warmer colors in the top image), one can expect lower stratosphere disruption in the polar vortex. It doesn't matter if the polar vortex is gone in the stratosphere- it only matters if the troposphere feels the effects, and that's what we need right now to make sure this trifecta can happen. As far as the heat flux goes, it is nowhere as strong as the ongoing SSW, but again, progress is progress, and after a fairly dismal December, we will need all the help we can get.

And then there's the chance for a third warming. This third warming, if it were to happen, would come at a time when the polar vortex has already been split into multiple pieces and absolutely decimated on all levels as far as strength goes. Suppression south is beginning to occur with the remaining polar vortex pieces, meaning Eurasia and North America would begin to feel an Arctic chill.

This suppression is well observed in this long range GFS forecast, which shows the polar vortex entering the Great Lakes region. Temperatures as low as -30 are observed in the upper Midwest, and cities like Chicago, Quad Cities and Gary would experience temperatures well below 0. This is just one of many possibilities facing us if this third warming event comes to fruition.

I should note that the lower stratosphere is predicted to have a good piece of the polar vortex in southern Canada during this same timeframe, meaning that the stratospheric effects are propagating down to the surface. Cold air would certainly be in order for much of Canada and possibly the US if the polar vortex made its way close to the US. If it ENTERED the US, record-breaking cold is more than possible, but I want to wait several more days to let the GFS sort itself and any forecast errors out.

Part II: The Cross-Polar Flow

There is an atmospheric pattern called the Cross-polar flow that is widely acknowledged as the pattern that brings the coldest air to the US the easiest. The term originates from the way a strong ridge of high pressure builds into the Gulf of Alaska to the point that the jet stream actually has to cross the North Pole to get north of the high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. From there, the jet stream collapses south into the Rocky Mountains, transporting frigid air as it goes. We are seeing good signs of the cross-polar flow setting up in the long range.

For example, hour 288 of the GFS control model run shows a fantastic cross-polar flow ongoing, with extreme ridging happening from the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Circle. The jet stream is then observed shooting south into the West US, with significant cold air following the jet stream. This pattern also opens the door for a McFarland signature, which is the death-bringer to crops everywhere near the Rio Grande. As observed by McFarland, an atmospheric pattern will set up in which high pressure will build in the East, and low pressure in the West. A severe arctic outbreak will press east across the nation, and anomalous high pressure will build in its wake, holding the nation in a deadly Arctic outbreak. This forecast certainly shows some McFarland characteristics, but for now we will just focus on the cross-polar flow.

The ECMWF model and ECMWF Ensembles also try to build some cross-polar flow, albeit to a much weaker degree than the GFS control:

ECMWF ENS 500mb height anomaly for Day 10.
Don't immediately bet against the GFS control. The ECMWF Ensembles naturally have to be weaker than the individual model forecasts because the ensembles are just that- ensembles. They are composed of multiple forecasts and are only showing an average of the members' forecasts. It is entirely plausible that 50 of the 51 ECMWF ensemble members show extreme Gulf of Alaska ridging, but one member shows record-breaking low pressure anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska. While that's most likely not happening, just remember this is an average of dozens of individual forecasts.


Part III: The Teleconnections

The third and final part of this Arctic Trifecta is the teleconnections, particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In the negative phase of the NAO, the jet stream buckles south to bring cold and storm systems to the Northeast, while the negative AO brings about a cold weather pattern across the nation. Both of these oscillations ca be detected by models, so let's see what they show.

Let's bring back the ECMWF Ensemble image for a moment. This is still valid at Day 10. We can clearly see a strong negative NAO and AO. How? High pressure is building over Greenland in this forecast. The negative NAO is achieved by seeing high pressure build over that land mass, in turn bringing about cold weather to the Northeast. The negative Arctic Oscillation is then found by the presence of multiple high pressure systems dominating the Arctic Circle, the typical domain of the AO. The negative AO and negative NAO would typically combine to bring cold air to the East in such a situation, but as you can see, high pressure is building across the East Coast. Why? The dreaded negative Pacific North American index, or negative PNA. The negative PNA, while a common trait of cross-polar flow and the McFarland signature, causes high pressure (and thus warm air) to build across the East US. We will need to see an equally strong negative NAO or a weakened negative PNA to see that high pressure get out of the East Coast. Eventually, by the end of January, this should very well happen.

This Arctic Trifecta can work out very easily, I have no doubt about that. The question is, can the negative PNA turn into more of a McFarland signature to push the cold east, or will it persist in the West? If persistance occurs, cold prospects are dimmed. However, the breakdown of the polar vortex practically assures that some degree of colder weather will be forced into the US- it's how cold that is the question.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

[link to twitter.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

12Z GFS ENS 5 day avg 2m temp anom chart between 14-19th has most of the UK below average temp wise now. Cooling trend. [link to twitter.com]

i dunno what all this means but i can say that here in toronto canada the last 2 winters have been the mildest winters and hottest summers in the last 13 years that i lived here... seems like toronto is turning into florida minus the beetches. so far temperatures are just around 0c + or - a few degrees. i remember 5 years ago walkin in huge winter coats with temps as low as -30. that seems to be history

It'll change once the Maple Leafs hit the ice

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Cooling trend evident in the 12Z GFS ENS again but still a huge scatter - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] of uncertainty...

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Where is cold going to be for January in N. Hemi? GFS extra-long range fcast dumps 50-60°F below normal on W. Asia [link to twitter.com]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

January opens -3.5C in US More fun to come, latest cfsv2 idea on right Dont believe nxt week warmup end of winter [link to twitter.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

12Z ECM model (cold E'ly type) - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … | ECM ensemble mean - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … (much milder SW'ly flow)


5 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

The ECM ensembles are not buying into the cold scenario just yet, particularly not as early as next weekend...evidence to follow...

6 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Variety of solutions possible beyond that between the 15th and the 19th, which continues to lead to outcome being anyone's guess still.


7 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Somewhat oddly 28 of the 51 12Z ECM ENS members have a mild SW'ly across the UK between the 12th and the 14th due to low pressure to the W.

OP, fascinating thread!

How will all this cold weather effect rain/snow for the Colorado Rockies? So far, this has been a very dry winter.
Will the collapse of the vortex affect other weather conditions other than cold?

^^^THIS^^^

Didn't see this posted, sorry it I missed it. Accuweather now warning of frigid conditions due to stratospheric warming.

[link to www.accuweather.com]

In the comments under this article, Accuweather responds to someone saying one of the models predict temps more than 40 degrees below normal.

Thanks for posting that!!!

I can give that to some of my friends who cant quite understand what I am talking about :)

lol

I hear ya, for people I know if it isn't on Accuweather it isn't true. :)

I've been in the meteorology field for years. Let me just say this:

The models sucked last year. They suck this year even worse. Here in the states, they can't predict a severe weather event within 12 hours or less. (Christmas week storm in the Southeast USA).

Every time these models show cold, it always get pushed back further and further. Think about it like this: In American Football, you keep getting sacked and eventually you can't reach the field goal for 3 points anymore. That's what this Winter is like.

Listening to Joe Bastardi (a guy who ALWAYS hypes cold and stormy weather for money, wrecked the Accuweather reputation, cares more about his body mass than learning how to forecast, and launched WeatherBell with now Ryan Maue (yep, Ryan sold out too) is like eating raw pork and expecting to not get sick to your stomach.

It's not limited to Joe either! There are a lot of well respected meteorologists going the pay site route to give false forecasts to create hype to line their pockets.

This guy over on weathercentre, tell me... how many times have his posts been correct? They sure as Hell haven't been in the states.

Everytime I look at these crappy Wordpress blogs I think about The Weather Channel. These guys at the Weather Channel name Winter storms now just to make money on hype with no prerequisites of intensity,damage,travel issues, etc. All this does is make the public not in the "weather know" pass off named storms, including hurricanes because "they weren't too bad when Winter Storm Athena came!"

Okay, I'm done with my rant. Just realize people, the ice caps are melting, the weather is getting more intense for some areas.. but everything goes full circle including the Earth. We know more about space than our own planet.

Bill is that you?

Bill Nye? YOU GOT ME! Really though, no. My name's not Bill. :P I'll give you a hint. "Jewel". Check out the SPC. ;P

whats SPC?



naw I'm playing too


Well I hope you wasnt ryan about them hyping it up to make a buck! I hate the cold... hope for the best and prepare for the worst ;)

Storm Prediction Center. And that's how my philiosiphy goes. No matter what, there will be weather. It can't be controlled (well maybe it can with stupid HAARP stuff, cloud seeding, etc) but generally it's the only weather we have so enjoy it right? :)