2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

ECMWF 12z ensemble control, basically a 15-day global model run from actual init conditions also had brutal cold [link to twitter.com]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Will be on FBN by phone in morning at 6:05 and 8:05 to talk about the severity of the cold in Asia and Europe [link to twitter.com]


8 hJoe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Rare snow shuts down Jerusalem [link to www.cbsnews.com] … via @CBSNews

Forgot to post up the StratAlerts for ye.

Here's latest. Note the couple days lag.

STRATALERT TOKYO 11 JAN 2013 0500 UTC

30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 09 JAN

1. COLD MINUS 77 58N 102W, COLD MINUS 73 50N 52E, WARM MINUS 32 65N 138E, LOW 220 68N 92W, LOW 233 60N 77E, HIGH 370 48N 168W.

2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FIELD,
POLAR VORTEX SPLIT INTO TWO OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER WESTERN SIBERIA. COLD AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND NEAR WESTERN RUSSIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. IN THE ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSHPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.

3. STRATALERT EXISTS.
MAJOR WARMING HAS CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE NEAR THE ARCTIC COAST OF CENTRAL SIBERIA INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 38 DEGREES FROM 2 JAN TO 9 JAN 2013. REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.= [link to www.boards.ie]

Ian Fergusson‏@fergieweather

"@metofficeSWEng: Yellow Alert of Snow for SW England : Glos, Swindon & Wiltshire valid from 0005 Mon 14 Jan to... [link to www.metoffice.gov.uk]

21 minIan Fergusson‏@fergieweather

Note for N/E Glos & Wiltshire "@metofficestorms: UK alerts and warnings for ice and snow in the next few days updated: [link to ow.ly] "

Ian Fergusson‏@fergieweather

"@bbcweather: Snow possible across some southern counties of Eng and Wales Sat pm to Sun am. Ice then a problem. [link to bbc.in] PA"

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Amazing amount of Nhemisphere land masses ( where most people are affected) covered by cold north of 30 north [link to twitter.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Cold and wintry at 120hr all over by 168hrs according to the ECM again [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … - Still, most of next week cold and wintry.

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

The more significantly cold air is just loitering off the E Coast near that area of rain with 850mb temps < -8c [link to twitter.com]

That is some impressive and fast Stratospheric warming [link to i50.tinypic.com]

Friday, January 11, 2013Polar Vortex Could Collapse South into US
By Andrew at 5:24 PM

New signals are showing that the polar vortex could collapse south into the United States in the next 10-14 days.

Shown above is the 10 day forecast from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, or just the EPS. The ensembles are forecasting 500 millibar height anomalies for this timeframe, where low pressure systems are shown in cool colors and high pressure formations are in warmer colors. The big green spot on the Canada-US border is the polar vortex itself- the low pressure entity which practically drives the Arctic to retain its cold powers. If this thing drops south like it did in 2009, cold to a very similar degree could be observed across parts of the nation.

Also key to this forecast is the presence of high pressure on the west coast of Canada and in the Pacific Northwest into the Southwest US. This is commonly known as the Pacific-North American (PNA) index, and is a driver of storm tracks and cold weather within the United States. When the PNA is in its negative phase, low pressure anomalies begin to build and persist in the West US (negative height anomalies, negative PNA), resulting in high pressure and warm air in the East US. Storms are then diverted into the Plains or way into the South. In the positive PNA, high pressure builds into the West, and low pressure evolves across the East, bringing higher potential for cold and snow to the central and east sections of the States. I find it very possible that the PNA could go positive after its been so negative recently- a huge low pressure system pushing south into the US means physics must respond with above normal height anomalies in the West US, and all of the sudden there's a positive PNA in the area.

The ECMWF Ensembles, despite the fact they are at the top of the most reliable models and ensembles of the world, are still prone to errors that strike the other global models, so do not take this as written in stone. It certainly is a good sign to see the ensembles agreeing on this- you need all the help you can get after last winter (even after last month)!

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Saturday, January 12, 2013New Model Forecasts Drop Polar Vortex Into Central US
By Andrew at 9:58 AM

The latest GFS model forecast has the polar vortex itself - the motherlode of the Arctic - dropping well into the Great Lakes in about 10-14 days.

The image above shows 500 millibar heights for January 23rd. That big purple spot in the Great Lakes shows extremely low heights across the Great Lakes. There is only one system that can create such a big synoptic area of such low 500mb heights, and that is the polar vortex. This is essentially 1985, but less amplified. Daytime HIGHS would reach in the negative double digits for cities like the Quad Cities IA, Chicago IL, just to name a few.

Now, before you get excited, know that this is the first run the GFS has shown this, essentially Patient Zero. If we want to see this scenario actually have a chance of verifying, we need to see this same forecast output be shown again for the next week to even have a CHANCE in my book. While this is all good fun and excitement, you have to balance out just what the chances of this happening are. The polar vortex will drop south, the big question is how far south. Obviously the GFS thinks its best to fly south and bring winter with it.

UPDATE at 10:00 AM CT: The overnight 0z ECMWF model agreed with the ECMWF in dropping the polar vortex south into the Great Lakes in a very surprising consensus between the two global models:

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Saturday, January 12, 2013Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible
By Andrew at 9:58 AM

The polar vortex has begun the intense and dramatic process of its collapse, as shown in the above multi-panel image from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). In the image, we see a 6-day chart of observed heights at the 30 millibar level in the stratosphere, typically known as the mid-upper stratosphere. You can clearly see the separation of the polar vortex into two daughter vortices, with one over Eurasia and another over Canada. The dominant vortice in this case is the Eurasian one, due to its massive size, but the Canadian vortice appears to be a small, compact daughter vortex, not unlike Hurricane Andrew in 1992. I'm certainly not saying that these vortices are producing effects like that of Andrew, the stratosphere is not capable of such a feat. However, the split tells us forecasters 'The Arctic is having a breakdown.'

This split was caused by the much-anticipated Second Warming that I have been posting about for days on end. This second warming is the second 'C' in my new 'Three C's' List, which consists of the following:

-Corrosion
-Crack (Split)
-Collapse

The Corrosion refers to the weakening of the polar vortex to a point of a state that it has not collapsed, but has sustained damage to the point that a split is possible. The Crack refers to the split in the polar vortex, when a stratospheric warming forces the vortex to crack into several vortices. And finally, the Collapse indicates the polar vortex can no longer control the Arctic, and its vortices are forced south into lower latitudes. I believe we are well on our way to the last stage of Collapse, shown by the chart below:

This is an image of potential vorticity values for the Day 10 forecast from the ECMWF model. Higher potential vorticity values indicate the presence of low pressure, in this case the polar vortex. The number 850 K on the above image refers to the isentropic level of 850 K. Before you start wondering what all this means, let's sort it out. The isentropic level 850 K is equivalent to 15 millibars, meaning this is a forecast for the strength of the polar vortex in the relative upper stratosphere at 15 millibars. Not to hard to understand now, is it? Anyhow, do you see any oranges or even whites? No? That means THERE IS NO POLAR VORTEX. It's GONE. It has actually gone beyond Collapse into a whole new level of disintegration.

We just want this disintegration to propagate down to the lower stratosphere, like the level 475 K shown below (roughly 105 millibars, the very bottom of the stratosphere):

Things are still looking very good for the end of January into February. Maybe a little toned down on the cold for late January, but Siberia supports a very chilly February.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Posted 41 minutes ago

What 'concerns' me is the amount of energy still present over N and NE Canada in association with a remnant lobe of the main vortex. This coming weeks block is holding its own for some time, but with charts like this...

[link to meteocentre.com]

...In my opinion it is only a matter of time before the Atlantic will break through. From experience the models do breakdown these patterns more quickly than is actual reality and it is often 'fun and games' when this process take places. But clearly if you combine the above charts to the likes of this;

[link to wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de]

...There is a correlation. I don't believe any significant height rises will develop to the N or NW of the UK (Greenland blocking etc) until that region of vorticity either buggers off or is destroyed but this potential warming event in the next 7 to 10 days or so. The amount of energy being sent into the W Atlantic on all the forecast charts through this week and beyond is just simply fueling cyclonic develop to the W and NW of the UK which is clearly attempting to 'beat down' our cold block and I believe, at least for a time, it will do.

Clearly what late January and February delivers who knows, but with the stratosphere in the state that it is now, no doubt northern blocking will be a primary and main dominating feature, but will it be in the right place for cold weather....?

Cheers, Matt. [link to forum.netweather.tv]

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Some particularly harsh frosts possible between Tue and Fri in particular with min temps between -5C to -10C across Midlands, N Eng & Scot.

1 hMatthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

@EMP1RE87 - Very difficult to say, but combining today's snowfall and tomorrow then parts of Yorkshire and N Eng likely to get >10cm

Saturday, January 12, 2013What Are The Chances The Polar Vortex Drops Into The US?
By Andrew at 4:05 PM
The chances are on the rise for the potential of some serious Arctic cold hitting the nation going into the latter part of the month. But could the polar vortex actually enter the United States? Let's take a look.

This is the GFS model's 500 millibar forecast for Hour 264, about 11 days away. We see a deep depression of heights in the Great Lakes, shown as blues and purples and even whites. These colors symbolize extremely low heights, showing that the polar vortex is in that area. There are a few crucial things we need to get straight before we dive into this forecast.

First and foremost, it is now probable that the polar vortex will drop south from the Arctic. The thing the models are having trouble with is just how far south. Initially, when this vortex drops south, you will see a depression of heights in Canada, not unlike the one seen in the image above. In response, high pressure should form in western Canada and may propagate south into the West US as a positive Pacific-North American (PNA) index. The positive PNA opens the doors for cold air to flow south into much of the central Plains, Midwest and into the East US. I find it only logical that the PNA, which has been strongly negative recently, will have to push to neutral or slightly positive levels as this polar vortex pushes down. It's plain physics- if there is a force pushing down, there must be another force pushing up; in this case, the polar vortex will be pushing down and the PNA must then go positive with high pressure building up in the West US and west Canada.

This positive PNA will then open the door for chilly air to make its way as far south as the North Plains. Depending on where the polar vortex as a whole shifts through the following 2-4 days, the track of the vortex could be dramatically changed. Right now, it would seem likely that the vortex would want to keep pressing south due to the positive PNA starting to enforce its will upon the storm track, which then dips south in response. Something else supporting the Plains and Midwest starting off with the coldest temperatures is a very weak east-based negative NAO. If you look on the above image, you will see Greenland in the top-right corner with a sash of blue across it. That is low pressure and is the anti-cold positive NAO. However, there is a small green bubble of slightly higher heights that would signify the presence of a weak east-based negative NAO. The negative NAO has a west-based and east-based phase. The former option supports the cold hitting the East Coast, and the latter has the Plains/Midwest receiving the brunt of any cold and stormy activity. The GFS supports the idea of an east-based weak negative NAO, adding influence to the positive PNA that then supports a general cold regime taking place in the Plains/Midwest (possibly in the form of the polar vortex). It would eventually move east (the cold would), but with more of a moderated stance, not as strong as the Plains/Midwest.

This is Hour 240 of the new ECMWF model run, showing 500 millibar height anomalies. High pressure appears in warm colors, low pressure in cool colors. Here, we see the polar vortex has pushed east into the Canadian Maritimes, but another piece is reloading in south central Canada and would likely push south and east with time if this model went out further in time. This would also ensure a cold shock to the system, especially for those in the Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. We still have that strong positive PNA paving the way for enhanced cold in the aforementioned regions, and what could be a weak east-based negative NAO trying to push north into southeast Greenland. Both models have a really nice cross-polar flow going on with high pressure pushing the jet stream north across the Arctic (hence cross-polar flow) and down into south Canada or even north US.

I made a check-list of things that need to happen in order for the polar vortex to begin pushing into the US. Confidence in these events occurring is added as well:

1: Polar vortex must shift south into Canada (Confidence: 85%)
2: PNA must go positive (Confidence: 55%)
3. At least a weak NAO must be in place (Confidence: 30%)

As you can see, there is still a lot to do before there is a good shot at the polar vortex sliding south into the States. However, we're already on our way to our best chance for winter yet- even if the vortex does not come crashing into the US, cold shots will make much of the north central and far northeast US colder.

Please don't ask what your location will be like, there's no answer to give at this point.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z has come in extreme cold for next week w/Arctic air-mass to sweep thru Midwest & Eastern US. [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue

@PV_Anomaly still a long ways off, 8-10 days before the heart of cold air enters US although models agree that something is coming.

Matthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

Strong signal for sub -5C temps as well evident around midweek - [link to meteoalerte.com] … (top left image). Low risk sub -10C (top right imag)


43 minMatthew Hugo&#8207;@MattHugo81

NAEFS warning system picking up the risk of snow nicely during Monday across N and E Eng in particular - [link to meteoalerte.com] …

You've done massive research here but it's a lot to take in. How's it looking for CA?

you don't see the temp map i post? It's just brutal!!! [link to twitter.com] [link to twitter.com]

Not what I was hoping for :*(

and it's the begining, a massive artic aire wave is comming next week Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue

ECMWF 00z has come in extreme cold for next week w/Arctic air-mass to sweep thru Midwest & Eastern US

Luis, Southern Ontario here! Where is the snow? It's been raining since yesterday. This is so Weird! Usually, we are in deep freeze this time of the year.

i think that it will come next week... lets see how this collapse evolve

Thread: Weather Reporting: Any Swedish / Finnish Here?



[]

32' waves out in the North Atl, affecting Puerto Rico and those small islands around there, and snow/ice tomorrow in UK.

AccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather

Thermal, CA has crushed its record low. Currently 20 degrees. Old record 25 degrees last tied in 2012.


59 minAccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather

Lowest temps this morning: -36 degrees in West Yellowstone, WY.; -32 in Alamosa, CO. and -29 in Driggs, ID.

1 hAccuWeather.com&#8207;@breakingweather

Yesterday at this time it was 52 F at Chicago; currently, it's 26 F

The Weather Channel&#8207;@weatherchannel

One more - Canada's largest city, Toronto (48ºF/9ºC) is currently warmer than Mexico's largest city, Mexico City (46ºF/8ºC).

3 hThe Weather Channel&#8207;@weatherchannel

More bizarro temps: Erie PA (65º) and Cleveland OH (63º) are currently warmer than Orlando (58) & Daytona Beach (57). [link to wxch.nl]

3 hThe Weather Channel&#8207;@weatherchannel

Currently 46º on top of Mt. Washington, warmer than San Diego (44), Los Angeles (43) and MUCH warmer than Phoenix (32). Amazing.

Joe Bastardi&#8207;@BigJoeBastardi

Coldmeggedon in Europe! left day 1-5 temps, middle 6-10 rt major snowfalls much of continent including UK! [link to twitter.com]