REPORT ABUSIVE REPLY
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Message Subject
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2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!
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Poster Handle
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Anonymous Coward |
Post Content
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A MAJOR SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT IS UNDERWAY AND NEARING COMPLETION. SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS ARE FAVORED TO OCCUR DURING AN EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION /QBO/...WHICH IS THE PHASE THE STRATOSPHERE IS IN THIS WINTER. THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING CAUSES A DRAMATIC WEAKENING...AND SOMETIMES ENTIRE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX...AND A GREAT WEAKENING OR EVEN REVERSAL OF THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR NIGHT JET. THE GFS FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT WEEK AT THE 2MB LEVEL.
THE RESULT OF ALL OF THIS IS THE GENERATION OF STRONG HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AS THE DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE STRATOSPHERE FEED DOWN INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING FORCES THE COLDEST AIR SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND TOWARDS THE MID LATITUDES...AND ALSO FAVORS LASTING STRONGLY NEGATIVE EPISODES OF ARCTIC OSCILLATION /AO/ AND NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/. THIS TYPICALLY BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE 10-15 DAYS AFTER THE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT. HOW LONG IT LASTS CAN VARY...BUT TYPICALLY THE COLD PATTERN LASTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW WEEKS...AND OCCASIONALLY CAN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF WINTER.
AS ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING...THE MJO IS FORECAST BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES TO WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY IN ABOUT 10 DAYS. THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEGATIVE OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WHICH WILL DIRECT THE FIRST BATCHES OF COLD INTO THE WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A TREND TOWARDS A NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE PNA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE GROWING COLD TO SPREAD EASTWARD.
WHAT ALL OF THIS TECHNICAL JARGON MEANS IS THAT THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES STARTING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY...WITH COLD LIKELY PEAKING IN LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AT LEAST SEVERAL YEARS DURING THIS PERIOD. WHAT SNOW POTENTIAL THIS WILL BRING IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO UNKNOWN DETAILS WITH SYNOPTIC STORM TRACK AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL.
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