2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

Weather.com is forecasting a low of 25 degrees and Accuweather.com is saying 23 degrees for next Tuesday Night Jan 22. They'll probably lower that (to what you are saying) the closer it gets.

Useful Relationships Between 500 mb Features and Major Freeze Events in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas

Marshall J. McFarland
Environmental Studies Service Center
Texas A&M University
College Station, Texas

INTRODUCTION

The Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas is subject to freezes that severely damage the citrus, sugar cane, and winter vegetable crops. Notable damaging freezes occurred in 1930, 1949, 1951, and 1962--a rate of occurrence that is too infrequent for the development of objective or statistical forecast aids. Yet, the forecaster has a responsibility to forecast these freeze events several days in advance in order to allow the agribusiness interests in the Valley to take action to cut potential losses.

The forecaster must recognize those situations when he will have to deviate from "guidance," since it is likely that the guidance based on statistical methods will not identify rare or extreme events. The forecaster does not necessarily have to accurately (in a conventional sense) forecast minimum temperatures during a severe freeze several days in advance; rather, it is sufficient for him to be able to identify the potential for a severe freeze so that it can be communicated to the agricultural community. The farmers, growers, packers and other agribusiness people take actions commensurate with the assessed freeze potential. For example, a severe freeze threat even at a low confidence level five days in the future could trigger several low-cost actions such as review of resources and accelerated harvesting. As the freeze event time draws closer and the confidence level of a damaging freeze increases, the actions to decrease losses would become more intense, more expensive, and more widespread.

This study was designed to provide the forecaster with guidelines to assist in the subjective evaluation of damaging freeze threats several days in advance.

ARCTIC OUTBREAKS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

The impact of severe freezes on agriculture in the Lower Rio Grande Valley is obvious from the citrus production records for the past fifty years (Figure 1). The sharp declines in production as a result of freezes are dominant even when production is plotted on a log scale (other production fluctuations are a result of variables such as cultural practices, acreage in production, and even hurricanes).

The severe freeze of January 1962 destroyed about half the fruit on the trees of the 1961-62 season and about 99 percent of the 1962-63 crop because nearly all bearing wood was destroyed. Minimum temperatures at representative climatological stations in the Valley during the January 1962 freeze are contained in Table 1, along with lows for other selected freeze events referenced in this study.

The surface chart associated with the January 1962 freeze clearly depicted an Arctic outbreak; in fact, the surface anticyclone has been termed the greatest anticyclone in the United States history (Ludlam, 1962; Stark, 1962; and USWB Office of Climatology, 1962). A surface chart near the time of maximum strength of the high is shown as Figure 2 and the 500 mb features are shown in Figure 3.

Other freezes have not been as disastrous as the 1962 freeze, but even a lesser freeze event such as the December 1973 freeze when ten percent of citrus production was estimated to have been lost is very important to the Valley agribusiness.

ARCTIC OUTBREAK SYNOPTIC PATTERNS

Although the January 1962 Arctic outbreak set numerous records for high surface pressure and low temperature, the synoptic pattern was not unusual. It exhibited a polar or Arctic outbreak (1) type of anticyclone as contrasted with the anticyclone of a cyclone family series (see Petterssen, 1969). The distinction is important; the major freeze events of the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas have all been associated with Arctic outbreaks. Freeze events can occur with an anticyclone of a cyclone family series, but require the radiative cooling conditions of clear skies and light winds. The duration of below freezing temperatures, typically a few hours, is much less than that of the Arctic outbreak, when 68 hours of below freezing temperatures were recorded at Harlingen in the 1962 freeze in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (Young and Peynado, 1962).

The other disastrous freeze of the last fifty years in the Valley was also associated with an Arctic outbreak. The Arctic outbreak of late January and early February 1951 was memorable for both the disastrous freeze in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the ice storm, common to the Arctic outbreak, which clothed the South with as much as eight inches of ice. The total freeze and ice damages were estimated at $100,000,000 (Harlin, 1952, and Miller and Gould, 1951).

The similarities between these two outbreaks and other Arctic outbreaks are sufficiently pronounced to describe, at least tentatively, the characteristic features of the 500 mb synoptic patterns associated with the Arctic outbreaks which produce major freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

As shown in Figure 4, the 500 mb patterns during the 1951 and 1962 Arctic outbreaks were very similar; a deep polar vortex over Baffin Bay, a major trough over the northern United States with an east-west trough line, zonal flow south of the trough line and northerly flow from a high amplitude ridge north of the trough line. The events preceding these patterns were also very similar.

From the breakdown of a high-latitude short wave omega-type block in the long wave ridge, the trough associated with the eastern low moved southward, intensifying while maintaining a general east-west orientation. The combination of the ridge aloft and surface radiative cooling facilitated the development and maintenance of the surface anticyclone, which also began to move southward under the northerly flow aloft. In the four days from 5 Jan to 9 Jan 1962, the surface anticyclone built from a 1025 mb central pressure over the Bering Straits to a 1060 mb high over Alberta.

In both cases, the omega block opened up as the leading trough line moved southward. The closed high circulation of the block became joined with the full latitude long wave ridge over the western coast and the southward moving trough line became linked to the deep low over Baffin Bay.

Another key feature was the cyclogenesis associated with the developing system. In each case, pronounced cyclogenesis occurred as the low occupying the mean long wave trough position over the U.S. was ejected. In January 1962, the surface low deepened from 1006 mb central pressure to 980 mb in a 24-hour period with the cyclogenesis.

Cyclogenesis did not occur with the southward moving trough. A consequence of a lack of cyclogenesis was that the cold air was not deflected eastward from its southward trajectory (Means, 1948). The history of the 500 mb and surface patterns from the first appearance of the block for the 1962 outbreak is presented in Figure 5 and the 500 mb sequence for the 1951 outbreak is presented in Figure 6.

The Arctic outbreak of December 1964, a "scare" for the Lower Rio Grande Valley due to the presence of a 1060 mb high over northwestern Canada, also was preceded by an omega block configuration at 500 mb. When the omega block opened in this situation, the closed high moved northward. and the leading closed low moved slowly southward before opening up into an east-west trough on 17 December 1964. Figure 7 shows the 500 mb sequence of the outbreak.

In each of these Arctic outbreaks, the 500 mb trough succession over the conterminous U.S. was translational. The existing long wave trough moved eastward and was replaced by the southward-moving intensifying trough. In several other Arctic outbreaks reviewed which produced freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, the 500 mb trough succession pattern was that of discontinuous retrogression. The existing long wave trough was sufficiently strong that the replacement of the existing trough by the south-ward moving trough occurred within the mean long wave trough position. The mean trough axis shifted westward. a characteristic feature which provides the descriptive name of discontinuous retrogression (see Palmen and Newton,1969).

The January 1949 Arctic outbreak which produced a damaging freeze in the Lower Rio Grande Valley was one of a series of Arctic outbreaks primarily over the western plateau. January 1949 was the coldest on record in Idaho; many stations averaged 20 degrees F colder than normal (USWB, 1950) during the series of outbreaks. Ice storms were also common with this series of outbreaks (Kiviat. 1949 and the USWB Annual Summaries for 1949).

The strongest outbreak and the one which produced the Rio Grande Valley freeze occurred when the high-latitude omega block opened up; the very strong short wave trough plunged southward rapidly in the northerly flow of the long wave pattern. Again. cyclogenesis did not occur with the southward moving wave. The omega block which preceded the Arctic outbreak is shown in Figure 8.

A discontinuous retrogression sequence in December 1962 produced a record cold wave across the southeastern United States; below freezing temperatures extended to Miami. Florida. and the crop damage was estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars (USDC-USDA. 1962). The Arctic outbreak was associated with the breakdown of a short wave omega block superimposed on the long wave ridge. The mean long wave trough position was over the Southeast United States so the Arctic outbreak was steered into the Southeast; the lowest temperature in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas during this outbreak was 35F at Harlingen, Brownsville recorded 40F as the lowest. Figure 9 shows the omega block stage of the outbreak.

A closed low moving southward from northwestern Canada will also be associated with an Arctic outbreak. This closed low is characterized by trough line oriented north-south or northwest-southeast. The trough is also frequently difluent; stronger gradient and winds exist on the western side with difluence at the trough line. Snellman (1973) noted that these closed lows with difluent, negative tilt troughs were associated with Arctic outbreaks over the plateau. The southward moving low will produce a very sharp, deep mid-continent trough through discontinuous retrogression of an existing trough. The closed low center does not necessarily have to move south of the Canadian border to be associated with an outbreak affecting either South Texas or Florida. Figure 10 shows the sequence at 500 mb during a January 1975 freeze in the Valley.

In the limited sample, the longitude of the closed low and its existing troughline determined the region of the United States to be hardest hit by the Arctic outbreak. In November 1970, a closed low moved southward over Hudson Bay; a major freeze occurred in Florida but not in South Texas. Also, in January 1971 a major freeze occurred in Florida as a result of the leading low of an omega block moving southward over Hudson Bay.

All of the 500 mb synoptic situations described can result in the development of a sharp full-latitude mid-continent trough, frequently with a closed low over the southeastern states. Each major east-west trough associated with a major Arctic outbreak rotated slowly from the east-west orientation to a deep north-south trough over the eastern United States. The coldest temperatures in the Valley during the 1962 freeze occurred with radiational cooling on the fourth day following frontal passage. This synoptic situation favors the development and maintenance of a slow-moving mid-continent surface high, with continued cold air advection, plus the tendency for formation of a split-off high in southern Texas favors the occurrence of radiational freezes in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Several minor freeze events of short duration occurred with the existence of the deep trough or closed low in the southeastern states, regardless of method of formation. The cold advection of an anticyclone within a cyclone family and radiational cooling with very dry air aloft can produce a diurnal temperature range of nearly 50 degrees F.

A USEFUL THEORETICAL CONCEPT

The geopotential tendency equation developed in Holton (1972) is of particular use in this study because it provides insight into areas not addressed in the synoptic descriptions of the Arctic outbreaks. The geopotential tendency equation may be used to relate height changes at 500 mb to vorticity advection at 500 mb and to the differential temperature advection between the surface and 500 mb.

From the geopotential tendency equation, the 500 mb height will fall when there is positive vorticity advection occurring at that point at 500 mb. The magnitude of vorticity advection is normally small along the ridge line and trough line of a 500 mb wave, so the major effect of vorticity advection is to translate the wave without major amplitude changes.

Although 500 mb vorticity products were not available for the Arctic outbreak study, the operational use of vorticity and vorticity advection patterns will provide qualitative estimates of trough movement and the vorticity pattern will assist in the detection of the short waves at high latitudes when the troughs are not obvious in the contour pattern. The 500 mb prog charts may not portray the short wave omega block in the contours, but indications of the block should exist in the vorticity pattern.

The differential horizontal advection of temperature produces the major amplitude changes in a traveling wave. The 500 mb height will fall at a point where cold air advection exists with increasing strength downward; a common situation with a cold front. The strong low-level cold air advection of an Arctic outbreak will produce a rapid deepening of the 500 mb trough; similarly, a pronounced deepening of a 500 mb trough on a prog chart indicates strong surface cold air advection. The 1000-500 thickness and the inferred thickness advection may be used, with caution, to forecast the Arctic outbreak with the related 500 mb features.

DISCUSSION

Several 500 mb synoptic features are common to all major Arctic outbreaks described. The long wave pattern includes a high amplitude ridge over western North America or the eastern Pacific with a deep 500 mb long wave low system centered between Hudson Bay and Greenland. When this long wave pattern exists, the conditions for formation of the Arctic air mass and the potential for its southward movement are favorable. A major short wave embedded in the long wave flow is required for the Arctic outbreak to have a major freeze potential for the Lower Rio Grande Valley; the common rapidly-moving short waves, accompanied by the cyclogenesis and frontogenesis in the lee of the mountains, did not produce a major freeze in South Texas in the limited sample studied.

Two 500 mb short wave configurations were readily identifiable as Arctic outbreak potential; a closed low moving southward over the Prairie Provinces of Canada and the breakdown of a short wave omega block super-imposed in the long wave ridge. Typically, a short wave omega block would form in the top of the long wave ridge with the closed high center over the Bering Sea or Alaska. The air mass forming the core of the Arctic outbreak was associated with this closed high.

This air mass in the situations studied remained in place, strengthening slowly, until the short wave omega block opened up. The leading closed low or trough line of the block became connected with the deep long wave low and began to move southward slowly as the block opened. When this occurred, the Arctic air mass of the closed high began to accelerate southward while strengthening rapidly.

The strength and orientation of the existing long wave trough over the United States determined the trough succession pattern. Both discontinuous retrogression and translation were common without apparent significant effect on the strength of the outbreak. The southward moving short wave or closed low moved into the southern portion of the full-latitude long wave trough as the existing trough or closed low was ejected from the mean trough position. The ejected low or trough was characterized by pronounced cyclogenesis; the replacement trough was characterized by a lack of cyclogenesis.

(substantially truncated) [link to www.wunderground.com]

Dangerous Cold Arrives To Wrap Up January
By Andrew at 5:01 PM
To clear up any confusion, these are 850 Millibar temperature forecasts, in Celsius. That's 5000 feet above the ground, NOT the surface.

ECMWF 850mb forecast for Hour 216
Dangerous cold is set to arrive in the nation to wrap up January, as the polar vortex moves south and drags anomalously cold air into much of the nation.

The above forecast shows the ECMWF model's latest 12z forecast. It depicts very cold air in the lower level of the atmosphere being dragged along south from the Arctic, as a very strong storm system moves north near the Canadian Maritimes in the bottom image. As I have been predicting for quite a while, recent stratospheric warming events have led to the release of cold air from the Arctic and the split of the polar vortex - semi-permanent low pressure in that region - to persuade cold air to push south. While the extent of such cold air has been in question, models are starting to build a consensus on a severe cold shock hitting the nation.

And this potentially-dangerous cold may persist well beyond January. Indications are that a continued cold spell will last through February, with the whole month likely ending below normal. Things are definitely looking good for cold starting in late January, stay tuned to The Weather Centre for continued daily updates on this developing information!

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Coldmeggeddon hammers Europe left 0-7 days, right 8-16 major economic and human misery [link to twitter.com]

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Melbourne, Australia, to hit 102ºF on Thursday. A lot warmer than Shepherd Bay, Canada, at -55ºF.

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Bit chilly across the pond as well. 2°F lowest temps Mon morning west of Birmingham, England [link to twitter.com]

Hailstorm in Malta on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 16:33 (04:33 PM) UTC.

Description
Civil Protection urges prudence from motorists and pedestrians, as unexpected hailstorm has hit parts of the Maltese islands early this afternoon. A hailstorm surprised motorists and pedestrians early this afternoon, catching them off their guard in various parts of the island. In localities like Mosta, Iklin and Naxxar, the hail was so intense, open spaces looked like they were covered in snow. The Civil Protection Department issued a warning to motorists to be prudent on the roads, and to avoid low lying areas, known to flood. Dark clouds, strong winds, a downpour and hail, wiped away the sunshine which dominated the skies this morning, paving the way for a lowering of temperatures and more storms in the coming days.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Cold Wave in India on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 04:06 (04:06 AM) UTC.

Description
Cold wave persisted in most parts of Himachal Pradesh even as mercury rose marginally across the state and stayed close to normal level. The high-altitude tribal areas and other higher hills had mild snowfall while some places in mid and lower hills had light rains with Nadaun in Hamirpur district recording 3 mm of rainfall. While tourist spot Manali recorded minimum temperature of minus 0.4 deg C, Mandi and Bhuntar recorded a low of 1.6 deg C and 2.6 deg C, followed by Shimla and Solan at 3.5 deg C each, Sundernagar 4.6 deg C, Una 6.2 deg C and Nahan 7.4 deg C respectively. Keylong and Kalpa in tribal districts of Lahaul and Spiti and Kinnaur recorded a low of minus 8.6 deg C and minus 3.2 deg C. The high altitude areas reeled under bone chilling cold wave with mercury staying between minus 15 deg C and minus 23 deg C. The maximum temperature at Una was 22.8 deg C while Sundernagar and Solan recorded a high of 19.8 deg C and 19.5 deg C followed by Bhunter 19 deg C, Nahan 18 deg C, Dharamshala 17.2 deg C, Shimla 15 deg C and Kalpa 9.5 deg C. The MeT office has predicted dry weather in the region tomorrow but said a fresh western disturbance as an upper air system will affect the western Himalayan region from January 16 onwards.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Snow Storm in Japan on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 04:04 (04:04 AM) UTC.

Updated: Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 10:01 UTC
Description
Heavy snow that blanketed eastern Japan over the holiday weekend left one man dead and 900 others injured, as Tokyo commuters Tuesday took to the slippery streets. A low-pressure system, dubbed a "bomb cyclone" by local press, dumped eight centimeters (three inches) of snow in nine hours, the heaviest snowfall in the region since January 2006, the Japan Meteorological Agency said. It left 13 centimeters of snow in neighboring Yokohama, while mountainous areas around Tokyo saw up to 30 centimeters. A 71-year-old man in Shiojiri city, Nagano prefecture, died after falling into an open drain as he cleared snow around his house, a fire service spokesman said.

National broadcaster NHK said at least 891 injuries had been recorded in Tokyo and the area around it, many of them elderly people who had slipped on snow-covered streets or motorists involved in accidents. Major train services resumed operations in Tokyo, although many sections of road remained closed while crews cleared frozen snow. All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines canceled a combined total of 37 domestic flights while dozens of other flights experienced delays. International operations were not severely affected by the snow, the airlines said. On Monday, Japanese airlines canceled more than 460 domestic flights, mainly to or from Tokyo's Haneda airport, where runways were temporarily closed as workers removed snow. Around 3,400 people spent the night at Tokyo's Narita airport on Monday, a spokesman said after train services running to the outlying facility were suspended. They returned to normal on Tuesday, he added. [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Extreme Weather in Australia on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 08:07 (08:07 AM) UTC.

Description
A severe storm has ripped through a small town in western Queensland, seriously damaging 15 homes and a school. The wild weather bore down on the town of Jundah, south of Longreach, about 2pm (AEST). Authorities say the storm battered roofs, windows and doors, significantly damaging 15 homes and a school and knocking over trees. There were no reports of injuries, according to the Department of Community Safety. State Emergency Service volunteers are helping with the clean-up. The Bureau of Meteorology forecast severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts in the western Queensland area for most of the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm warning remains in place for central western Queensland and the Maranoa and Warrego regions, with the possibility that storms will move further north in the evening.
Tornado in Australia on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 04:14 (04:14 AM) UTC.

Description
A town in central Queensland was hit by a tornado Monday night, just 11 months after a flood swept through the area. Blackall retailer Ian Kinsey said a tornado hit the town about 9pm, ripping part of his clothing store's roof clean off. "The tornado wasn't a massive one…but it would have been a couple of more minutes before it ripped the roof off completely." The roller door of the store was also blown in and trees around the town were knocked down. Mr Kinsey said even a metal sign in the town was "twisted” by the storm. The damage comes after his business was swamped by more than six feet of water in February 2012. "We'd only just got over the floods and replaced the flooring…it's the exact same building that's been hit,” Mr Kinsey said. Luckily, Mr Kinsey's other businesses in town were spared from nature's wrath. Bureau of Meteorology Forecast Matthew Bass confirmed there were damaging winds in the area Monday night, with 120km/h winds the highest recorded. He said severe storms hit towns from the north-west of the state right across to the Darling Downs from yesterday afternoon. Outside Mount Isa, a wind recording of 109km/h was clocked by the bureau. The Bureau expects to issue weather warnings for the central parts of Queensland on Tuesday afternoon, with more gusty thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely in Blackall and neighbouring towns. "We've got cooler air moving and what's significant is a weak low starting to form over the centre of the state and a lot of moist tropical air starting to feed in and that's going to start triggering more thunderstorms through central parts of the state,” Mr Bass said.
Flash Flood in New Zealand on Tuesday, 15 January, 2013 at 04:17 (04:17 AM) UTC.

Description
Heavy rain across the middle of the country has caused widespread flooding, almost sweeping away four tourists camping in Nelson this morning. MetService has issued a heavy rain warning for Mt Taranaki, Nelson, Marlborough, the Kaikoura Coast and North Canterbury as a low moves southeast across the country. The rain has eased for Mt Taranaki, Nelson, Marlborough, however heavy falls are forecast this afternoon for the Kaikoura Coast and north Canterbury where 100 to 140mm may accumulate before easing this evening. The heavy rain almost washed away four tourists camping alongside the Waimea River overnight. Police said the overseas tourists, in their late teens and early 20s, had driven on to the river bed and parked two campervans under the Appleby Bridge for the night. After heavy rain overnight one of the campers awoke about 9.30am to the sound of water entering the van. He then woke the other campers and they tried to push the front van out of the river. Senior Constable Dave Colville of Nelson Police said the two vans had been tied together to create a washing line, preventing the group from pushing the first van out.

The tourists started emptying their possessions out of the vans. However when some items were washed away one of the group swam after them. He was washed away in the current and ended up making it to the bank on the opposite side of the river, and was later found downstream. Mr Colville said the vans were last seen floating down the river and are yet to be located. The group had been taken to a campground to dry their gear out, Mr Colville said. He said they were lucky to have escaped unharmed and advised other campers that parking on a river bed in torrential rain was not a safe option. The Nelson City Council says while rain is expected to ease across the region this afternoon, they will be on alert until river levels return to normal. Heavy rain hitting the area has caused moderate surface flooding in the city, with the Maitai Valley Road at Sharlands Creek. But Council spokesman Shane Davies said the worst of it should now be over.
[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

12z ECM model at 120/144hr is really special. Unique synoptics being portrayed here [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] … [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

You guys are weather masters.

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

RT @capitalweather: Cities - farther south - with more snow than DC this winter: Dallas, El Paso, Jerusalem, Tokyo: [link to wapo.st]

Matt Taylor‏@MetMattTaylor

Are you finding it a bit cold this evening? Well, at Aboyne (Aberdeenshire) the temperature at 8pm was already down to -9.5C.

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Remarkably the 12z EC ENS mean supports the ECM model at 120hr and 144hr with a particularly cold and wintry theme continuing Sun/Mon

Ed O'Toole‏@chionomaniac

Latest SSW paper abstract. Yet more evidence detailing tropospheric linkage. [link to www.nature.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

These are recent temps as of 2130Z - [link to www.weatheronline.co.uk] … - Aboyne in Scotland now down to -10C already! - Many areas sub zero. #brrrr

Very important thread, thanks!

Here in the netherlands -7 celsius. Big problems on our roads today because of heavy snowfall. And have you heard about the big accident in the south of sweden? Over a 100 cars and trucks had a big accident!! What more to come?

For you in the deep south, not used to ICE

please check out this amusing video. It's amusing when it's not you pushing the car

[link to www.youtube.com]

[youtube] [link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by Crazy Harriet on 01/15/2013 06:32 PM

is this going to be as bad and weird as it sounds?

-10 isn't really very cold, but with the arctic air, it feels a lot colder. -10 can feel like -20 etc.

We're having -15'ish temps on average since for about a week now, colder during nights, warmer during daylight.
Just hope there wont be any -35c 'ish weeks like in 2010.

well some forecasts give -39C to Maine in 6 days!!!

AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

Current wind chill (temperature it really feels like outside) is down to an incredible -80.4F in Rankin Inlet, Canada.

Wow!!!