2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!!

well that's life!

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

For a large portion of the UK the cold weather begin near the 10th and will end near the 25th - Over 2 weeks of cold weather.

7 hMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

By the end of the wk many areas of the UK will have experienced a min temp below 0C consecutively for over 15 days.

Psszzz said these catastrophic events would happen starting 1/1/13 if the world didn't come to an end 12/21/12. He said it wasn't going to be caused by cern large hadron collider as he usually says it is the cause. He said the new cause is something originating from outside the milky way galaxy,which is pushing all the catastrophic events this new year well over 10,000% increases.

The dormant volcanoes awakening,erupting 500 times faster than last years record breaking year of 91. The weather anomalies,the massive record breaking environmental extremes occurring across the planet past 4 weeks.The wildfires,the massive snow storms and snow tornadoes.The tornadoes hitting U.S. deep south on christmas day which never happened before.The mass wildlife die-offs exploding off charts,fish being caught all across the pacific with levels of radiation 2,500 to 10,000 times greater than the legal limit. Micro quakes across the planet like never seen before,the usgs is so confused they don't even know what to say. The sinkholes and strange sounds/booms across the planet more than ever.

All of these increases are far greater than the 1500% increases that psszzz accused cern large hadron collider causing before 2013. Wake up zombies !!!!

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

You think it's cold in the UK, take a look at this graphic for #Canada - [link to wxmaps.org] - Now that's widespread extreme cold!

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Jeez, that will get the snowmen hot under the collar! - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

NAEFS picking up this risk as well - [link to meteoalerte.com] … 10% to 20% of sub -15C values as well.

3 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Continued signal for some very low Tmin values later in the week over snow cover - [link to expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk] … #onetowatch

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

10-day ECMWF forecast shows a lot of cyclones from E. Pac to N. Atlantic. Busy baroclinic wavetrain [link to twitter.com]

More flight disruptions across Europe, as heavy snow causes chaos

Posted on January 21, 2013by The Extinction Protocol

Deep freeze: London Mayor Boris Johnson: ‘It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age.

January 21, 2013 – EUROPE — Hundreds of flights were cancelled and road and rail traffic was severely disrupted across much of Europe on Monday, as heavy snow and freezing weather gripped the continent. Frankfurt airport, Germany’s main air hub, cancelled around 500 departing and arriving flights, representing 40 percent of its daily schedule. The busiest airport in Europe, London Heathrow, scrapped nearly 200 flights. Heathrow said a decision was taken 24 hours in advance to cancel 130 flights because visibility was expected to deteriorate as the day wore on, but problems elsewhere in Europe were having an impact too. “The additional cancellations are because a number of airports elsewhere in Europe are experiencing problems so that has a knock-on effect for us,” an airport spokesman said. Heathrow has spent 36 million pounds ($57 million) on upgrading its snow-clearing equipment since 2010, when freezing temperatures and snow almost brought the airport to a halt in the approach to Christmas. Europe’s number three airport, Paris’s Charles de Gaulle, was also hit. France’s civil aviation authority DGAC said it expected to scrap 40 percent of flights to and from Charles de Gaulle and Paris’s other main airport, Orly, in a precautionary measure following heavy snowfall on Sunday. Even Munich, a city usually accustomed to taking snow in its stride, cancelled 161 flights at its airport as it grappled with the exceptional conditions. In Spain, flights bound for Paris, Munich and Frankfurt were hit, leading to the cancellation of 16 flights to and from Barcelona. Smaller airports in Britain were virtually closed down after fresh snow fell in northern and central England overnight, with planes grounded at Manchester, East Midlands and Leeds Bradford. Under-sea train services between Britain and continental Europe were also hit, with Eurostar cancelling six trains linking London with Brussels and also Paris due to speed restrictions on the tracks in northern France. Freezing rain and snow also led to treacherous conditions on railways and roads, causing countless accidents. In southwestern Germany, police recorded more than 1,000 weather-related accidents and in the northeast, near Berlin, an entire section of motorway was shut to traffic. In Belgium, three people died and two others were seriously injured when a minibus they were travelling in skidded off the road, overturned and caught fire at a motorway exit near Bruges, local authorities said. In Moscow, unusually heavy snowfall of almost 50 centimetres (20 inches) caused traffic jams but did not affect flights at its airports, which are well-equipped for snowstorms. The snowfall over the last four days in the Russian capital exceeded the average for the whole month of January, said Moscow Deputy Mayor Pyotr Biryukov. -AFP [link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]

[link to www.youtube.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Currently a 1060mb surface high chilling over the North Pole. [link to twitter.com]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Some of the models are showing signs for the potential development of some very deep lows next week. Gales/severe gales may be a hazard.

1 hMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Jeez this would be a shock to the system - [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …

Posted Today, 11:58

Stratospherically we are still seeing a NH pattern dominated by the recent SSW. Contrary to some opinions, this has downwelled from the mid stratosphere and affected the troposphere. It is always hit and miss how and where the SSW can have knock on effects in the troposphere and it appears that we have been lucky to see the split vortex favourably positioned to prevent the jet stream powering through during the two week mid January period.

However, that is about to change as further warming of the stratospheric Canadian vortex which allows it's tropospheric counterpart to break free. West to east momentum initially is set to carry this across the Atlantic to its Siberian counterpart as can be seen in this 30 hPa chart.

As this occurs there will be a corresponding increase in Atlantic mobility allowing the westerlies to reach the UK rather than be held at bay. The stratospheric vortex even though weak will be positioned on the Atlantic sector meaning a far less meridional jet stream whereas the Pacific sector will have a far more disturbed flow due to the upper ridge holding strong. This pattern will be as of a direct consequence to recent stratospheric events - but the wheel of fortune will be dropping off the meridional cold flow elsewhere in the NH.

So the main question that everyone is asking is will we likely to see a pattern re- emerge that can bring back the cold and blocking to our shores. And the answer is not immediately but definitely not no!

With the weakened vortex conditions likely to persist for a period of time then it is only a matter of time before realignment occurs in line with the MJO and GWO.

The stratospheric forecasts during the next 10 days right up to 10 hPa are showing and will show signs of increased fluctuations in the exact position of the vortex.

There are signs of another split occurring around day 10 and this will need to be watched carefully.

If this does occur then we could quite easily see the door to returning cold opened back up again. I think we will need to keep an eye on the strat forecasts very closely in this period.

Edited by chionomaniac, Today, 11:59.
[link to forum.netweather.tv]

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Strong signal for a swath of the UK to see >2cm of snow on Fri (top left image) and a solid risk of >5cm for N areas - [link to meteoalerte.com] …

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Above 250m in particular for N Eng may see over 20cm of snow within 6 to 9hrs from 1500z tmoz up to midnight. Some extreme conditions poss.

10 minMatthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Latest UKMO MESO model for 2100z blue is snow...what a mess! [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Potent couple of lows in Med & Black Sea to dump snow, worst of it in Romania & Moldova. [link to twitter.com]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

At tropopause level, 1012 mb sfc low perfectly positioned beneath jet streak / coherent tropopause disturbance. [link to twitter.com]

Many scientists predict a coming little ice age in 2-5 years. And of course it's also sun related. When we talk about 'mini' ice age it's not like major glacial periods when most parts of Northern Hemisphere were covered with 2-3 kms thick ice sheets, but still dramatic especially considering the current situation of the modern civilization. Imagine longer and colder winters increasingly and almost no real summer for decades.

Sounds good to me!

Many scientists predict a coming little ice age in 2-5 years. And of course it's also sun related. When we talk about 'mini' ice age it's not like major glacial periods when most parts of Northern Hemisphere were covered with 2-3 kms thick ice sheets, but still dramatic especially considering the current situation of the modern civilization. Imagine longer and colder winters increasingly and almost no real summer for decades.

Sounds good to me!


Don't say it! I want my mango tree and avocados to fruit!!!

Many scientists predict a coming little ice age in 2-5 years. And of course it's also sun related. When we talk about 'mini' ice age it's not like major glacial periods when most parts of Northern Hemisphere were covered with 2-3 kms thick ice sheets, but still dramatic especially considering the current situation of the modern civilization. Imagine longer and colder winters increasingly and almost no real summer for decades.

Sounds good to me!


Nice cuddling weather.

A good crime fighter too.

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Cold wave in Europe to end, winter returns around Valentines day for most. US break in plains and east 36-48hr long, hen colder air comes

Thursday, January 24, 2013Stormy, Cold February Could Vindicate Winter
By Andrew at 9:41 PM
It appears that the potential for a stormy and cold February could vindicate at least part of what has been lost this winter, with some snow and intense cold hitting the nation throughout the incoming month of February.

The Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO, involves placement of enhanced convection over certain areas of the Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean and even the far western Caribbean. These different areas are divided into 8 different regions, called phases, which each affect the national weather differently. Their effects change with each season as well. Above is the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System's MJO forecast from January 24th to February 7th. It is predicting a decrease in intensity in coming days as we remain in Phase 7, and the weakening is exhibited by the forecast line moving closer to the circle in the middle of the image, called the 'Circle of Death', because the MJO is too weak at that point to impact the weather significantly. We see that the ECMWF predicts the MJO to move into Phases 8 and 1 as we enter February. These two phases are widely acknowledged as the best phases for cold and snow during the winter, with the cold hitting the hardest across the Central and East US, and snow hitting the same areas. It is for this reason that I support a cold and potentially stormy open to February.

Something else we must keep in mind is that we have recently had a historic sudden stratospheric warming. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW), warm air is suddenly forced up from lower levels of the atmosphere in an act that greatly weakens the polar vortex. The polar vortex is the machine that essentially maintains control of the cold air in the Arctic. If you recall, much of the nation experienced very cold temperatures just a couple days ago. This happened as the polar vortex skirted by Southern Canada. Imagine what it could do if it was inside the US. As we enter February, the 2-4 week lag time between SSW and cold air from the stratosphere reaching the surface (because the warm air has displaced it down to the troposphere) becomes valid, meaning we could see another cold shock, and this one could be stronger, depending on where the polar vortex goes this time around.

Finally, I have been a big advocate of the proven theory that snow cover observed in Siberia during the month of October can have a big effect on the Arctic Oscillation come the following winter. We have seen this theory verify, with warmer than normal temperatures in December and early January correlating with below normal snow cover in the first half of October. However, as we enter February, we find that there was a spike in snow cover in late October, which does count as February in this sense. If we use this snow cover theory, I do see a legitimate possibility for strong, sustained cold to last in the US, but only if the rest of the atmospheric pattern cooperates.

It's certainly looking good for cold and even snow in much of the nation to kick off February, and some indications even suggest this could persist to end the final month of winter.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Europe May See Brutal Cold in Coming Days
By Andrew at 10:01 PM

It is becoming apparent that Europe may intercept a batch of brutally cold air in coming weeks as a result of the collapsing polar vortex.

Shown above is the European model's potential vorticity (PV) forecast for 10 days away at the isentropic level of 380 K. The isentropic level is a fancy name for just another layer of the atmosphere. 380 K translates to roughly 200 millibars- essentially the jet stream. In areas of heightened potential vorticity, low pressure centers are found. These charts are useful in identifying pieces of the polar vortex in the wintertime when they can split, like this situation.

The above image portrays a solid piece of the polar vortex journeying south into Europe in the 10 day forecast in time to introduce potentially harmful cold. We aren't talking about some stronger than normal low pressure system, this is a piece of the polar vortex here. If we do see it come south, temperatures could go down well below 0 (Fahrenheit) in many locations across the continent.

Now, depending on how long this vortice stays in place, which I don't believe will be a long time due to a more progressive atmospheric pattern, the intensity of the cold could grow. However, as a result of that progressive-ness and the fact that the vortex is too weak to hold any bone-shattering cold, this should not be as harmful as it comes across to be. However, the elderly and young may need to be watched during the 10-14 day period if this does come to fruition, because cold is cold, and serious cold can be harmful.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Polar Vortex Takes Another Swing at Northern US
By Andrew at 5:58 PM

The latest GFS model forecast has the polar vortex taking another swing at the Northern US in the next 5-7 days, as January begins to wrap up.

As I have been fearing, the multiple sudden stratospheric warmings are taking their toll on the polar vortex here at the surface. We already had the initial impact of the split polar vortex over Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and now appear to be looking at Round 2. As the 500mb forecast above details, there could be a second, stronger blast of cold air that hits the northern part of the nation. The GFS places this piece of the vortex substantially further south than the previous brush with the vortex; that one went into South Canada.

It does not matter where this piece of the vortex goes, because the ball has already been rolling on what we could face in February. I have been seeing consistent forecasts that detail a full stratospheric polar vortex breakdown, more on that later tonight.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NASA World-View: [link to earthdata.nasa.gov] [link to twitter.com]

Full Polar Vortex Collapse May Lead To Brutal February for North America, Europe
By Andrew at 3:20 PM

I am seeing that forecasts continue to enhance my much-anticipated suspicion that we will see a full collapse of the polar vortex, and this could be happening in the next two to three weeks.

We'll go image by image. This first image above is the Day 10 forecast of heights and temperatures. Areas of lower pressure are marked with the letter L, and are also shown with decreasing numbers closer to the center. Warmer temperatures are shown in warmer colors. We can clearly see that the polar vortex is nowhere near organization, a result of several sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), an event that forces warm air into the stratosphere and increases chances for cold air about 2-4 weeks later. Typically, if we were to find a sturdy polar vortex, there would be a single low pressure vortice centered over the Arctic. However, in the above forecast image, we see three separate vortices of the polar vortex, none of which are close enough to the Arctic for me to determine that they are in control of said area. What I can determine is that the polar vortex is beginning its dramatic collapse that could bring a brutally cold February IF, and ONLY IF the atmospheric pattern cooperates.

If you saw the title of this post mentioning North America and Europe, you may be intrigued. However, if you look towards Greenland and then look east, you will see several arching formations. This signifies high pressure in the area, possibly leading to a negative NAO, which would then enhance cold weather over those areas.

The next image shows the same height forecast and temperature outlook, but now for the 30mb region of the stratosphere, typically defined as the middle-upper stratosphere. Again, we can see a very weak polar vortex split into multiple centers and multiple vortices across this layer of the stratosphere, enhancing the case that the stratospheric polar vortex is on its last leg. I have no doubt that, should this forecast verify, this will be an irreversible act that will prevent the polar vortex from fully recovering for the rest of the winter. We just went through a historic sudden stratospheric warming in recent days, that will take some time for the vortex to heal, if that's even possible anymore. In this case, we see the main vortice over western Greenland, which usually would be a concern for the negative NAO. However, the 30mb level does not have the same effect as the 100mb level in that the 30mb level is too high up to bring about any significant weather changes to the troposphere, unlike the 100mb layer.

Our final image is of the ECMWF's potential vorticity forecast. We see a mostly blue chart with a few colored areas. The warmer colors depict areas of higher potential vorticity, which will denote low pressure areas (in this case, the polar vortex). Blues denote higher pressures, which hamper the polar vortex's formation. In the above image, valid for Day 10, we see a very disfigured polar vortex. There are three separate vortices- one if over north Canada, another over Europe and a third in Asia. The Canadian vortice will act to try and push south into more of Canada and possibly into the United States if the atmospheric pattern allows. The second vortice over Europe will act to enhance cold prospects for the continent for February, as I attested to in yesterday's article here. The third vortice over Asia will provoke storm systems to begin making a rebound in the US after a recent dry spell over much of the nation, not helped by an ongoing drought in much of the Plains and Rockies.

I'm seeing good indications that the polar vortex is on its way down, and February should end up nice and cool to round out winter. Just how cold is TBD, but things are looking up.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

Polar weather doom = Bush family estate in Paraguay ??

Sunday, January 27, 2013February 8-12 Potential Winter Storm
By Andrew at 10:33 AM

Image courtesy Tropical Tidbits
I am watching the potential for a winter storm between the 8th and 12th of February, with those dates very fluid and not nearly set in stone at this moment.

The above image shows Hour 312 of the 0z GFS model. We can see a modest storm system ejecting from the Rockies and producing wide precipitation shields across the Plains and down towards the Gulf Coast. Most notably is an area of heavy snow occurring in the Central Plains, where several inches of snow may be trying to accumulate. I cannot determine just how much, as the source of these graphics does not provide such a luxury. Nonetheless, accumulating snow would be falling in the Plains, with rain in the Southern Plains in a situation that may even produce some elevated convection.

Image courtesy Tropical Tidbits
Fast-forwarding to Hour 336 (12 hours later), we find ourselves with even heavier snow now occurring in the Midwest and western Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. I could see a very good accumulating snow event come out of this (that is, if this forecast even reappears in the next week), but again, I am in no position to determine exact amounts. Making a quick glance over to the rainy side I see heavy rain now ongoing across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. While the low pressure system is further north and not right on the Gulf Coast, I could still see the chance for some elevated convection if the cold front brings up the rear of the precipitation with some solid cool air.

So, you're most likely wondering why I am spending my time typing this much about a storm way out in the long long range of the GFS.

The answer: Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC).

The LRC involves a cycling pattern that repeats, or 'cycles' every 40-60 days. Each cycle length is different each year, and the pattern is most prevalent from winter into spring. This year, the cycle length is roughly 53 days. If we were to go back 53 days from February 10th, we would find ourselves on the date of December 21st, 2012- supposedly the day of the apocalypse.

This was the atmospheric set-up on the 21st. We had a deep low pressure system in the Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. W also observed high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes into New England, as well as in the Plains and Rockies. Deep low pressure was observed off the coast of the Pacific Northwest.

Now that we've got a look at December 21st, let's go to the forecast day of February 10th and see if we can spot any similarities that may validate or void this potential winter storm.

A quick comparison between the two yields many similarities. Let's list them all- First, we see a deep low pressure system once again present in the Ohio Valley, which is the main potential for the storm. We see the high pressure systems in the Plains and Canadian Maritimes into the New England region. The big thing we're missing is the deep low pressure system offshore of the Pacific Northwest, but that will likely come back into the model's field of vision as the time draws closer. Also worth nothing is the forecasted high pressure centered in eastern Greenland, resulting in an east-based negative NAO. The east-based negative NAO is favorable for cold and snow to reach the Central US over the Northeast, increasing the validity of this forecast.

We have suddenly established these two dates as very similar. The atmospheric pattern over North America (while not 100% spot-on) is similar enough that my confidence in this particular forecast is increasing. Now, we will definitely see this forecasted storm come and go in future model runs, but seeing such a close match between this forecast and December 21st tells me we should be watching for this timeframe to verify.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

[link to journals.ametsoc.org]