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Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream

 
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 04:26 PM
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Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
From deadly cold in Russia, floods in Britain and balmy conditions that have residents in southwest France rummaging for their bathing suits, the weather has gone haywire across Europe in the days leading up to Christmas. The mercury in Moscow has fallen to minus 25 degrees Celsius (minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit) — unseasonably cold in a country where such chills don’t normally arrive until January or February. The cold has claimed 90 lives in Russia since mid-December and 83 in Ukraine, with eastern Eurasia in the grips of an unusually icy month that has seen temperatures drop to as low as minus 50 degrees C in eastern Siberia. Another 57 people have died from the cold in Poland this month, and officials say the icy front is probably “the most severe of the last 70 years,”


not to mention all the severe weather on the coastal states today....damned




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Da fuq

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12/25/2012 04:27 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Speaking of the weather and Galactic Cosmic Rays, the IPCC's (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report has been leaked worldwide on the internet. The leaker's evaluation of the data points to a bigger Solar/GCR influence on climate than man-made fuels or cow farts.

*The IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) 5th Assessment Report due for release in September of 2013, has now been leaked publicly over 9 months in advance on an internet publication called “Stop Green Suicide“.
One of the reports 800 expert reviewers, a man by the name of Alex Rawls, apparently leaked the report and is backing it with written evidence that cosmic rays are actually the cause of climate change and warming patterns, thus possibly blowing the lid off the whole entire global warming fraud pushed by figureheads such as Al Gore and others.


This is from the Leaker's analysis:

**Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence ("many empirical relationships") for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don't know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC's computer models is seen to be "solar irradiance."

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 "further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change" (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity "explains" in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

Complete Leaked 5th Assessment Report w/ analysis:

[link to stopgreensuicide.com]

This is pretty huge! This should be a page one pinned thread. In brief, they're saying (on one hand) that Global Warming is still our fault; while (on the other hand) their evidence is proof that unknown solar and cosmic factors are a much bigger influence. Oh well, now the cover-up can begin, LOL.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
User ID: 29639471
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12/25/2012 04:30 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Speaking of the weather and Galactic Cosmic Rays, the IPCC's (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report has been leaked worldwide on the internet. The leaker's evaluation of the data points to a bigger Solar/GCR influence on climate than man-made fuels or cow farts.

*The IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) 5th Assessment Report due for release in September of 2013, has now been leaked publicly over 9 months in advance on an internet publication called “Stop Green Suicide“.
One of the reports 800 expert reviewers, a man by the name of Alex Rawls, apparently leaked the report and is backing it with written evidence that cosmic rays are actually the cause of climate change and warming patterns, thus possibly blowing the lid off the whole entire global warming fraud pushed by figureheads such as Al Gore and others.


This is from the Leaker's analysis:

**Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence ("many empirical relationships") for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don't know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC's computer models is seen to be "solar irradiance."

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 "further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change" (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity "explains" in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

Complete Leaked 5th Assessment Report w/ analysis:

[link to stopgreensuicide.com]

This is pretty huge! This should be a page one pinned thread. In brief, they're saying (on one hand) that Global Warming is still our fault; while (on the other hand) their evidence is proof that unknown solar and cosmic factors are a much bigger influence. Oh well, now the cover-up can begin, LOL.
 Quoting: Da fuq


something is causing unusuall weather for sure starting 2 years ago.. so many records broken and strange events.
Da fuq

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12/25/2012 04:32 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
Take note to when the cosmic ray density takes a swing upward.
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/25/2012 04:36 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
Take note to when the cosmic ray density takes a swing upward.
 Quoting: Da fuq


bump
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 04:37 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
nothing to be baffled about,the pattern is dictating the cold if they weren't cold it'd be "baffling",they should have some relief in the coming weeks as north america get colder
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 04:41 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
IssueX

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12/25/2012 04:50 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
good info, OP

5 stars for you
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/25/2012 04:52 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
good info, OP

5 stars for you
 Quoting: IssueX


thankyouhf
2012Portal
2012Portal - The Mayan Calendar

User ID: 15022013
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12/25/2012 05:14 PM

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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Ever since the BP Gulf Oil leak.
Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 30776066
Italy
12/25/2012 05:16 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
mini ice age

as it happened in the 1500's

at that time also the magnetic north pole moved to Russia
volcanos waked up, shorts summers and very long and cold
winters

it will last few years

I love to see the pantings of that period. Google them looking for "mini ice age paintings"

I love Brueghel suspended atmosphere
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 05:20 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
fukushima's isotopes in the atmosphere may be to blame.
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 05:25 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Ever since the BP Gulf Oil leak.
 Quoting: 2012Portal


Was just thinking of about this!spock
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/25/2012 05:26 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Ever since the BP Gulf Oil leak.
 Quoting: 2012Portal


very true
Abyss Lady

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Latvia
12/25/2012 05:39 PM

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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Yup... it was -10C yesterday, now it's +5C & rainy.....

Extremely volatile weather.
Heterosexual Pride!

Search before asking:
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Shorten your long links:
[link to shorte.st (secure)]
Anonymous Coward (OP)
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12/25/2012 05:43 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Yup... it was -10C yesterday, now it's +5C & rainy.....

Extremely volatile weather.
 Quoting: Abyss Lady


stay warmhiding
Anonymous Coward
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12/25/2012 06:07 PM
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Re: Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream
Thread: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!! (Page 9)

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