I can rather see in the short term a clash between China and Japan, with consequences far reaching.
In fact up until right now, I cannot see how this clash could be avoided.
Quoting: ^àTOn^ what do you mean by the short-term? this year? within 5 years?
This year.
They need one decisive little victorious battle, and they need it fast.Why?
Plenty of reasons:
1) during the last years the inner
power structure in China changed: the military became one of the top power players. Chines military are nationalistic, hawkish, and hell bend on turning the tide of being
not anymore the one superpower they used to be.
2)
culture: Face saving culture in the mix of being credible. China has lots of non resolved border issues. If they do not take a stance now, they loose face.
3) The sankaku island (or whatever they are called) have a
strategic value. Also in terms of resources, but foremost in terms of access for the navy to the high seas. The island chains, up until taiwan, encircle and prevent them free movements.
4)
Politics: The new chinese king kong has been "elected" very recently, he himself is nationalistic, and needs to find his place in the chinese internal politics power structure. He called to the chinese armed forces to be battle ready this year.
5) The
american politics in this area is to tie china down with multiple security pacts with various countries, arms deals, military contacts, insurances and thus to contain China in the long run.
Changing that, means for China, at one time, to bite, if they do not, everybody will believe they have no teeth.
6)
Japan just elected a nationalistic right party under Abe, who cannot and will do any deals about the islands. Thus there is no middle ground.
7) Historically, the chinese have a bone to pick with Japan, not only to mention the wars in the 18th century, where China lost one battle after the other, but culminating into the
Nanking massacre, which up until today is an open wound in every chinese heart.
8) To increase China's voice and the importance of its opinion on issues, to increase their
negotiating power, they need to proof to have the guts to kick asses if it must be.
9) China builds military naval places right next to the arab gulf. Their increase contacts, economical and military, in south america and africa. Chinese hackers hack US industry and security computers on a daily basis. Chinese military have the ability to shoot down satellites.
Chinese fonds buy as crazy ports all over the world, industries all over the world, land all over the world.
China has a plan, and the military component of this plan needs to be put on the table one day.
This will be this year. I think.
Long post, but you asked for it.
