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Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston

 
DoorBert

User ID: 870568
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01/02/2013 05:31 AM

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Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
A mid-level low is forecast to form off the southern CA coast according to GFS.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]


Will move east and trigger a deep negative-tilt trough.

Looks like it will pump massive amounts of moisture up from the GOM.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]


Severe weather likely for TX and the deep south.

Good chance of a massive snow dump for the Midwest and eastern states.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]


Stay tuned for updates.

Last Edited by DoorBert on 01/08/2013 04:09 AM
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 05:37 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Bump before pin
zvezda 1

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01/02/2013 05:38 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
I don't see anything "major" here.
DoorBert (OP)

User ID: 870568
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01/02/2013 05:43 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
EURO is developing a deepening surface low swinging across the northern shore of Lake Superior.

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

Huge cold blast behind the front.

Temp drop across the system is 44C or about 80F
DoorBert (OP)

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01/02/2013 05:48 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
EURO pretty much right on the money with GFS on timing and negative-tilt trough location.

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]

At this point, looks like severe weather likely for eastern OK & Oklahoma City Wednesday afternoon.
DoorBert (OP)

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01/02/2013 05:53 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Greenland Ends The Year With Some Of The Coldest Weather Ever Recorded


On December 29 they hit -78F, five degrees above the coldest temperature ever recorded there.

[link to stevengoddard.wordpress.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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01/03/2013 05:58 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Looks like a second system will be coming up behind it a couple days later.

[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
DoorBert (OP)

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01/03/2013 06:05 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
EURO is now showing this more as a possible Texas Hooker event.

[link to raleighwx.americanwx.com]


Lots of warm, moist GOM air settling into the MS-valley and Midwest ahead of it.
DoorBert (OP)

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01/03/2013 06:10 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Forecast snow depth Friday morning for Rio Grande, major winter storm.

[link to twitter.com]


El Paso, Laredo, & SW Texas into Mexico should gas up their snowblowers & put on their snowplows. Up to a foot?

[link to twitter.com]
DoorBert (OP)

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01/03/2013 04:19 PM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Anonymous Coward
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01/06/2013 09:33 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
[link to www.weatherbell.com]
FamilyFirst

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01/06/2013 09:38 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Good morning, and Thanks for the update DB!! I live in central MS, and we have had tons of rain. Will be watching for this. coffee4
DoorBert (OP)

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01/06/2013 09:38 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060913
SPC AC 060913

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCY BEGINS TO EMERGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD REGARDING THE EJECTING UPPER LOW ACROSS TX. THE GFS IS
SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF BY DAY5 WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE OVER SERN ONTARIO AT 11/12Z WHILE THE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOWER NEAR THE ARKLATEX. FOR THIS REASON EXTREME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE EXISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF TX WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE SPREAD INLAND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AHEAD OF PACIFIC
FRONT. IT APPEARS A SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2013
DoorBert (OP)

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01/06/2013 09:39 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Good morning, and Thanks for the update DB!! I live in central MS, and we have had tons of rain. Will be watching for this. coffee4
 Quoting: FamilyFirst


Morning FF

hf
DoorBert (OP)

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01/06/2013 09:40 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...TX...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW
OVER NRN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD AS
MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ROTATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VALLEY LATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR NWD ADVANCEMENT OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIRMASS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX/LOWER TX COAST. AS SFC DEW
POINTS RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
AS COASTAL/WARM FRONT ADVANCES INLAND BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH
THAT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...BOTH ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
AND PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE PRESENT. STRENGTHENING LLJ AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL
ENCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION ACROSS TX
WITH TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX ELEVATED AND LESS BUOYANT IN
NATURE. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH NEAR-SFC BASED ACTIVITY
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE WILL BE LIMITED BY COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION BENEATH
THE WARM CONVEYOR.

..DARROW.. 01/06/2013
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/06/2013 09:42 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Severe weather likely for TX and the deep south.

Thanks mehiding
Thanks DBhf
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Anonymous Coward
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01/06/2013 09:42 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Anything for the N.E.?


Thanks! hf
DoorBert (OP)

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01/06/2013 09:43 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Severe weather likely for TX and the deep south.

Thanks mehiding
Thanks DBhf
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Morning GfG

hf
DoorBert (OP)

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01/06/2013 09:43 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Anything for the N.E.?


Thanks! hf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30977347


Looks like rain, too warm for snow
DoorBert (OP)

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01/07/2013 04:49 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

07/00Z ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL THIS EVENING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS NWRN TX
INTO CNTRL OK. IT APPEARS A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD ERN TX WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER BY EARLY
EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY VERY MOIST MT AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF
BASIN AND PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES WILL ADVECT INLAND
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INTERIOR AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 WHERE A SFC
WARM FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. VERY MOIST BUT
POOR LAPSE RATE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD MORE THAN
ADEQUATE CAPE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT
ELEVATED...WILL BE NOTED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PW VALUES.
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONE OR MORE
SQUALL LINE-TYPE MCSS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FORCING/COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK MAY BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 01/07/2013


[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/07/2013 04:56 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
California is lookin dry :(
DoorBert (OP)

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01/07/2013 07:06 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
CME Impact forecast for the 8th

DoorBert (OP)

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01/07/2013 09:06 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Joe Bastardi: “Models Portraying Severe Winter” For Europe. North America Forecast For Brutal Cold

First in North America, weather models at about the 2:45 mark show that things could get awfully brutal for an extended period. Already the 7 – 14 day forecast looks ugly:

[link to notrickszone.com]

Joe calls it “a heck of a weather period coming up”.

[link to notrickszone.com]
IAM LEGION

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01/07/2013 09:48 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
im in west texas by lubbock and we are expecting lots of rain supposedly these next few days.
We Who Are Not As OtherS
Anonymous Coward
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01/07/2013 10:16 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
The weather man said around 4 inches of rain is predicted in north Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. We really need it. Out lakes and ponds are really low.
IAM LEGION

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01/07/2013 10:23 AM
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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
iknow what you mean. the crazy thing is i still have leaves on our rose bushes.
We Who Are Not As OtherS
Luisport

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01/07/2013 10:43 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
bump
DoorBert (OP)

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01/07/2013 10:44 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
Latest SREF is showing the deep cut-off low phasing with the trough on Thursday and giving a negative tilt.

[link to www.spc.noaa.gov]
Luisport

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01/07/2013 11:10 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
[link to weather.rap.ucar.edu]
Luisport

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01/07/2013 11:13 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
NOW...

A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL NOT SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE SO EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUN WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S TREASURE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST...WILL ADD A CHILL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST BUT ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
MAY OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH MID DAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY.


&&
DoorBert (OP)

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01/07/2013 11:13 AM

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Re: Next Major Weather Event Jan 9 & 10. Nearly 6" Rain Forecast for Houston
How Nexrad HAARP Works: Turning Natural Storms into Biblical Floods


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