DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CST MON JAN 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY...

07/00Z ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL THIS EVENING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT EJECTS ACROSS NRN MEXICO ACROSS NWRN TX
INTO CNTRL OK. IT APPEARS A STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE SERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD THEN TRANSLATE TOWARD ERN TX WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FLOW/HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER BY EARLY
EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY VERY MOIST MT AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF
BASIN AND PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES WILL ADVECT INLAND
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND INTERIOR AS FAR NORTH AS I-20 WHERE A SFC
WARM FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. VERY MOIST BUT
POOR LAPSE RATE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD MORE THAN
ADEQUATE CAPE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT
ELEVATED...WILL BE NOTED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PW VALUES.
FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES CERTAINLY SUGGEST SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ONE OR MORE
SQUALL LINE-TYPE MCSS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER FORCING/COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON THE GREATEST SEVERE
RISK MAY BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE
GIVEN THAT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK.

..DARROW.. 01/07/2013


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