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Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 08:26 PM
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Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.com]


There is roughly a 1-3 week lag time between a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and cold reaching the surface. Based on some research done, I feel that this timeframe should be more in the 2-4 week range this time around, which makes my expected arrival for the cold between January 22- January 27. This cold will persist for several days, especially if this second warming sticks around for a while. The weekly CFSv2 forecasts are showing such a sustained cold outbreak, as shown below in Week 3 (top) and Week 4 (bottom) temperature anomalies. ANOMALIES ARE IN KELVIN!




Look at all that blue- that's literally off the chart cold. The forecast is unable to produce any cooler anomalies, because the legend does not go any colder than that. The Week 4 forecast predicts temperature anomalies of 3.5 degrees Kelvin (roughly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal across much of the nation. Significant warming in Canada suggests a continued weakening of the polar vortex may occur, along with blocking that may provoke a negative NAO, but that remains to be seen.


Things are looking up for a big cold outbreak in late January, an outbreak that could be sustained in the second and third warmings materialize and stick around for a while.


Look at all the charts pointing to a deep freeze coming soon...good lord its gonna get cold if this is true.
ANON-A-Crew
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01/02/2013 08:43 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
Although the info looks good I am not sure of the source....aka a blog


Where is the high pres / heat over the usa coming from ?

There is a large low pres parked just west of alaska for over a month now spinning off smaller storms for most of Dec. The timeline doesn't show this low moving on?

What happened to a low almost 1/3 the size of the usa?

Is this model showing that the polar jet will be hitting Europe ?


I am not an expert, but I have been watching for a few years now and the model's predition over usa isn't making sense
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 08:46 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
One of the weather sites is showing the month of February as a record breaker for cold this year.Can find where I saw it at the moment.
mathetes

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01/02/2013 09:08 PM

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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.com]


There is roughly a 1-3 week lag time between a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and cold reaching the surface. Based on some research done, I feel that this timeframe should be more in the 2-4 week range this time around, which makes my expected arrival for the cold between January 22- January 27. This cold will persist for several days, especially if this second warming sticks around for a while. The weekly CFSv2 forecasts are showing such a sustained cold outbreak, as shown below in Week 3 (top) and Week 4 (bottom) temperature anomalies. ANOMALIES ARE IN KELVIN!




Look at all that blue- that's literally off the chart cold. The forecast is unable to produce any cooler anomalies, because the legend does not go any colder than that. The Week 4 forecast predicts temperature anomalies of 3.5 degrees Kelvin (roughly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal across much of the nation. Significant warming in Canada suggests a continued weakening of the polar vortex may occur, along with blocking that may provoke a negative NAO, but that remains to be seen.


Things are looking up for a big cold outbreak in late January, an outbreak that could be sustained in the second and third warmings materialize and stick around for a while.


Look at all the charts pointing to a deep freeze coming soon...good lord its gonna get cold if this is true.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15917555

Interesting! Break it for what this means for us in North America
For I would not, brethren, that ye should be ignorant of this mystery, lest ye should be wise in your own conceits; that blindness in part is happened to Israel, until the fulness of the Gentiles be come in.
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 09:10 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
[link to theweathercentre.blogspot.com]


There is roughly a 1-3 week lag time between a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) and cold reaching the surface. Based on some research done, I feel that this timeframe should be more in the 2-4 week range this time around, which makes my expected arrival for the cold between January 22- January 27. This cold will persist for several days, especially if this second warming sticks around for a while. The weekly CFSv2 forecasts are showing such a sustained cold outbreak, as shown below in Week 3 (top) and Week 4 (bottom) temperature anomalies. ANOMALIES ARE IN KELVIN!




Look at all that blue- that's literally off the chart cold. The forecast is unable to produce any cooler anomalies, because the legend does not go any colder than that. The Week 4 forecast predicts temperature anomalies of 3.5 degrees Kelvin (roughly 6 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal across much of the nation. Significant warming in Canada suggests a continued weakening of the polar vortex may occur, along with blocking that may provoke a negative NAO, but that remains to be seen.


Things are looking up for a big cold outbreak in late January, an outbreak that could be sustained in the second and third warmings materialize and stick around for a while.


Look at all the charts pointing to a deep freeze coming soon...good lord its gonna get cold if this is true.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 15917555

Interesting! Break it for what this means for us in North America
 Quoting: mathetes


^ This
Astral Goat
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01/02/2013 09:11 PM

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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
Thread: We are finally getting a nice freeze here on East Coast

Yes, I think we are all in for a little taste of Global Cooling.

OP, could this turn into a long term trend?

Last Edited by Astral Goat on 01/02/2013 09:14 PM
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Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 10:28 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
i want 3 feet of snow, now
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 10:41 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
here in toronto we are havin a very mild winter. the worst so far is -3c and a bit of snow... last year was weak too... 12 years ago it was deep freeze n mountains of snow... and the states are gettin pounded with snow
Anonymous Coward
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01/02/2013 10:42 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
Don't know if it is related to this prophecy, but FWIW:

December 4th, 2012

Today while praying the Rosary the Angel of God appeared. He said, “I come to tell you that another disaster for New York, America will occur soon. We told you in the previous message about the hurricane which has hit New York with enormous destruction.”

“People have not changed or asked God for His mercy. They continue with their veil sin. Give people warning.”

“This time they will receive a severe snow storm. So much snow, up to six metres and a freezing temperature.” [6 meters = ~20 feet... to see images of what 20 feet of snow looks like, click here.]

“Many will die in this storm.”

“I tell you this was prophesied a long time ago and now it will happen.”


[edited to keep to 50 percent rule]

[link to www.valentina-sydneyseer.com.au]
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2014 09:02 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
Here in Oregon and the rest of the Pacific Northwest is having the driest year on record.

We are only 25 percent of normal on rainfall at best mostly due to one stormy week in September *which was very unusual*.

Conditions show continued dry with a monster ridge over us in mid January.

We did have some surprise light rain last nite which I haven't heard in a looooooooong time. It's been gloomy with fog/low clouds until today.

I should go check my raingauge.
Anonymous Coward
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01/03/2014 09:03 PM
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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
Oh and I forgot to mention the snowpack *if there is any* is marginal at best.

Timberline the *big* ski resort for our area at 6,000 feet is still closed with only one lift partially operating on the highest ski run.

Conditions do not look promising for them for the extended forecasting range.
beeches

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01/03/2014 09:14 PM

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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
we want cold! we want snow!! I am ready for a deep freeze.


Honestly, I believe it would stop a pandemic cold.
Love is stronger than death.
beeches

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01/03/2014 09:16 PM

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Re: Multiple Stratospheric Warmings Confirm Polar Vortex Collapse Probable .....1985 winter maybe?You guys ready for a deep freeze?
someone posted about the sudden stratospheric warming recently. OP, what is it and why would it lead to more cold on the ground?
Love is stronger than death.

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