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WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??

 
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01/04/2013 02:32 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
how does an object come from 1million miles to 14 thousand???
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31436977


it hit the keyhole.
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01/04/2013 02:33 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
"It's not going to impact earth"

How could this possibly be the end? lol... Dig deeper.
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01/04/2013 02:34 PM
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Condition code 4 holds no guarantees folks.

MPC "U" parameter: orbit uncertainty estimate 0-9, with 0 being good, and 9 being highly uncertain

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Of course it doesn't mean it will hit Earth, it also means it might

1dunno1

Life is risky.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
:wrtywrtywrtywrty:
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
And for the record, my personal interest right now is focused on a rock that has been lost since 1979. It seems to be a biggun, over 600 meters wide. An impact is extremely unlikely (something like 1 in 4 million or so) and doesn't occur until 2056, but can't be ruled out since we have essentially no idea about where in its orbit it currently is; it's lost.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


600 Meters thats... almost 2000 feet wide (1968ft)... or almost 4 tenths of a mile...

and yeah its unlikely that it will hit us...

But its lost... thats worth checking into...

A person could get into all kinds of crazy on the speculation of why its lost...

but i think finding it would be a endeavor worth partaking. The GLPers who can... should band together and look for it... best I can do is stand in my yard with binoculars or point lol lol lol so im useless
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


1979 XB. Wasn't going to mention it until I make a video about it for a new thread, but might as well give some info:
[link to minorplanetcenter.net]
There are three large lost near earth asteroids out there, this is the only one classified as potentially hazardous. There were only 18 observations made of it from December 11th to December 15th 1979:
[link to www.minorplanetcenter.net]
That's why it's lost; we didn't get enough observations to firmly establish the orbit. Today amateurs would be able to easily contribute observations of an asteroid that size in order to refine the orbit, but back then the technology in amateur hands was much more limited. Magnitude 16 is extremely hard to see in an eyepiece and film back then was slow and suffered from reciprocity failure, but it's easily handled by today's CCD imagers in a matter of seconds.
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01/04/2013 02:40 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Condition code 4 holds no guarantees folks.

MPC "U" parameter: orbit uncertainty estimate 0-9, with 0 being good, and 9 being highly uncertain

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Of course it doesn't mean it will hit Earth, it also means it might

1dunno1

Life is risky.
 Quoting: TS66


No, it does not mean it might, it means more observations are needed to refine the orbit for long term tracking. You MUST do a more thorough analysis to know if an impact is possible for any given encounter though. When you do that analysis you find that it isn't a possibility for this encounter:


Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 01/04/2013 02:41 PM
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
IT IS DOOM FOR NOBODYS PREDICTIONS THIS IS ALL
 Quoting: M 18996828


Actually this asteroid was talked about on GLP a while back. Astro did post that it wouldn't hit earth but that it stands a chance of hitting a satellite... he showed the trajectory of the astroid and where all the satellites would be... he could see one or two close calls with satellites.. I went into my active threads looking for Astro's post, but it's already been cleared out and don't remember what the thread title was.

Astro also mentioned that if.. very small if, one of the satellites did get hit there is a chance that the debris from that satellite could then also hit other satellites.
 Quoting: my2centsworth


Here you go:

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01/04/2013 02:41 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
This was created by a 50 m wide meteorite.

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Keneh


Where did the meteor go ,bet it was the gypsies again bloody nick anything not tied down 5a
When the seventh seal is opened, I will deliver terrible punishments upon the earth because of disobedience. This punishment will be so severe that it will decimate huge populations ....eekerstard also
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01/04/2013 02:45 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
i just realized something, what happened to the GLP observatory?
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01/04/2013 02:47 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
i just realized something, what happened to the GLP observatory?
 Quoting: Anubis


aloneshocked
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
you r just a bunch of retards...even if this shit impact earth the only damages that thing could do its a litle crater like farting in the sand.....bsflag
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01/04/2013 02:57 PM
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Condition code 4 holds no guarantees folks.

MPC "U" parameter: orbit uncertainty estimate 0-9, with 0 being good, and 9 being highly uncertain

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Of course it doesn't mean it will hit Earth, it also means it might

1dunno1

Life is risky.
 Quoting: TS66


No, it does not mean it might, it means more observations are needed to refine the orbit for long term tracking. You MUST do a more thorough analysis to know if an impact is possible for any given encounter though. When you do that analysis you find that it isn't a possibility for this encounter:

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Astro, you said "that it isn't a possibility for this encounter."

Ok, what about later encounters? Or does there need to be further observations of this to clarify?
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01/04/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
i just realized something, what happened to the GLP observatory?
 Quoting: Anubis


Last I heard the software was getting an overhaul to include chat functionality. They're also trying to create the code necessary to run the main telescope remotely; driver support is nil.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??


NOTHING is garaunteed except, we all die some time. That is the only garauntee in life.
 Quoting: MzTreeChick


Sorry, evidently you forgot about taxes!!!
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01/04/2013 02:59 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
i just realized something, what happened to the GLP observatory?
 Quoting: Anubis


Last I heard the software was getting an overhaul to include chat functionality. They're also trying to create the code necessary to run the main telescope remotely; driver support is nil.
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


oh i see. thank you for the update.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
nibiflex

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01/04/2013 03:01 PM

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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
why doesnt the Earth gravity pull it in?
 Quoting: MONSTER


Well I could spend weeks trying to teach a course on celestial mechanics, but in short, it's traveling above earth's escape velocity and its trajectory does not bring it close enough to earth to experience atmospheric drag, let alone impact. Earth's gravity will affect its orbit, but it will not "pull it in."
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


is it not so that this close pass could change the orbit in such a way that it hits us next time around? earths gravity pulling the object through the metaphorical keyhole etc etc, next pass go boom?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16293101


Next pass has already been ruled out as a "boom," the first possible impact isn't till about 2027 and is extremely unlikely. Even all possible future impacts cumulatively this rock has extremely low odds of hitting us, there are much more likely threats out there (comparitively).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


But by then i will be 63 and too old to do anything ,panic sex would be outa the question too ,can't they make it a bit earlier ,while i'm young enough too handle this kinda thing rockonrockon
When the seventh seal is opened, I will deliver terrible punishments upon the earth because of disobedience. This punishment will be so severe that it will decimate huge populations ....eekerstard also
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
fuck off shill bsflag
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Condition code 4 holds no guarantees folks.

MPC "U" parameter: orbit uncertainty estimate 0-9, with 0 being good, and 9 being highly uncertain

[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]

Of course it doesn't mean it will hit Earth, it also means it might

1dunno1

Life is risky.
 Quoting: TS66


No, it does not mean it might, it means more observations are needed to refine the orbit for long term tracking. You MUST do a more thorough analysis to know if an impact is possible for any given encounter though. When you do that analysis you find that it isn't a possibility for this encounter:

 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Astro, you said "that it isn't a possibility for this encounter."

Ok, what about later encounters? Or does there need to be further observations of this to clarify?
 Quoting: PolarPrecursor

There's a very low chance it could hit us at some point in the future, no sooner than 2026 (about 1 in 23,000 for that encounter). We still need more observations of the asteroid to refine the orbit in order to determine where it will actually end up that far into the future, which is why these future possibilities still exist. We'll get lots more data during this SAFE encounter which will probably lead to us being able to rule out impacts until much farther in the future, maybe altogether as happened recently with 2011 AG5 which had a MUCH better chance of hitting us later on.

Last Edited by Dr. Astro on 01/04/2013 03:04 PM
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
that's not very big
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
...


Well I could spend weeks trying to teach a course on celestial mechanics, but in short, it's traveling above earth's escape velocity and its trajectory does not bring it close enough to earth to experience atmospheric drag, let alone impact. Earth's gravity will affect its orbit, but it will not "pull it in."
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


is it not so that this close pass could change the orbit in such a way that it hits us next time around? earths gravity pulling the object through the metaphorical keyhole etc etc, next pass go boom?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16293101


Next pass has already been ruled out as a "boom," the first possible impact isn't till about 2027 and is extremely unlikely. Even all possible future impacts cumulatively this rock has extremely low odds of hitting us, there are much more likely threats out there (comparitively).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


But by then i will be 63 and too old to do anything ,panic sex would be outa the question too ,can't they make it a bit earlier ,while i'm young enough too handle this kinda thing rockonrockon
 Quoting: nibiflex


Sorry, correction, 2026 not 2027. You'll be 62, still plenty young ;)
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
...


is it not so that this close pass could change the orbit in such a way that it hits us next time around? earths gravity pulling the object through the metaphorical keyhole etc etc, next pass go boom?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16293101


Next pass has already been ruled out as a "boom," the first possible impact isn't till about 2027 and is extremely unlikely. Even all possible future impacts cumulatively this rock has extremely low odds of hitting us, there are much more likely threats out there (comparitively).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


But by then i will be 63 and too old to do anything ,panic sex would be outa the question too ,can't they make it a bit earlier ,while i'm young enough too handle this kinda thing rockonrockon
 Quoting: nibiflex


Sorry, correction, 2026 not 2027. You'll be 62, still plenty young ;)
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


After this encounter we'll probably be able to rule out 2026 though.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
...


is it not so that this close pass could change the orbit in such a way that it hits us next time around? earths gravity pulling the object through the metaphorical keyhole etc etc, next pass go boom?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 16293101


Next pass has already been ruled out as a "boom," the first possible impact isn't till about 2027 and is extremely unlikely. Even all possible future impacts cumulatively this rock has extremely low odds of hitting us, there are much more likely threats out there (comparitively).
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


But by then i will be 63 and too old to do anything ,panic sex would be outa the question too ,can't they make it a bit earlier ,while i'm young enough too handle this kinda thing rockonrockon
 Quoting: nibiflex


Sorry, correction, 2026 not 2027. You'll be 62, still plenty young ;)
 Quoting: Dr. Astro


Yay !!!!! Cheers Dr Astro
When the seventh seal is opened, I will deliver terrible punishments upon the earth because of disobedience. This punishment will be so severe that it will decimate huge populations ....eekerstard also
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
that's not very big
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31495517


Who cares? December 21st doom failed in spectacular fashion, GLP needs new DOOOM to latch onto!!!!!!
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
IT IS DOOM FOR NOBODYS PREDICTIONS THIS IS ALL
 Quoting: M 18996828


Actually this asteroid was talked about on GLP a while back. Astro did post that it wouldn't hit earth but that it stands a chance of hitting a satellite... he showed the trajectory of the astroid and where all the satellites would be... he could see one or two close calls with satellites.. I went into my active threads looking for Astro's post, but it's already been cleared out and don't remember what the thread title was.

Astro also mentioned that if.. very small if, one of the satellites did get hit there is a chance that the debris from that satellite could then also hit other satellites.
 Quoting: my2centsworth


if if if ... to many ifs (from self-proclaimed "doctor")

Now imagine for a moment this domino effect and when all this trash start to fall from the sky - uncontrolled!?!
Orbit is overcrowded with all kind of (dangerous) satellites anyway.

But one satellite and asteroid would be more than enough if fall to any city, in any occasion.

cheers
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Look at Meteor crater in Arizona, what caused that was about the same size as this one.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
IT IS DOOM FOR NOBODYS PREDICTIONS THIS IS ALL
 Quoting: M 18996828


Actually this asteroid was talked about on GLP a while back. Astro did post that it wouldn't hit earth but that it stands a chance of hitting a satellite... he showed the trajectory of the astroid and where all the satellites would be... he could see one or two close calls with satellites.. I went into my active threads looking for Astro's post, but it's already been cleared out and don't remember what the thread title was.

Astro also mentioned that if.. very small if, one of the satellites did get hit there is a chance that the debris from that satellite could then also hit other satellites.
 Quoting: my2centsworth


if if if ... to many ifs (from self-proclaimed "doctor")

Now imagine for a moment this domino effect and when all this trash start to fall from the sky - uncontrolled!?!
Orbit is overcrowded with all kind of (dangerous) satellites anyway.

But one satellite and asteroid would be more than enough if fall to any city, in any occasion.

cheers
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31493748


The risk is not the asteroid hitting us, nor is satellite debris a risk to us on the ground, it's a risk to other geostationary satellites. It wouldn't deorbit for millenia, which simply compounds the problem for geostationary sats.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Look at distance on chart on 2013-Feb-15 19:25, compared since 1918

From 1926 to 1996 Where did it go ???

Tv guy said it comes twice a year - BS!!


[link to ssd.jpl.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: wise1


TV guy also said earth has a diameter of 88,000 miles, when rounded up. he was only off by about 80,000 miles. but maybe he was just getting excited.
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Re: WTF !! - ASTEROID Impact With EARTH 02.15.2013 ?? - Is This The End ??
Look at Meteor crater in Arizona, what caused that was about the same size as this one.
 Quoting: Keneh

ohyeah

The big hole in the ground -- 570 feet deep and 4,100 feet (1.25 kilometers) across -- was blown into existence 50,000 years ago by an asteroid roughly 130 feet (40 meters) wide.

[link to i.space.com]

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