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If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

 
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/12/2013 04:43 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Scientists Link Influenza A (H1N1) Susceptibility to Common Levels of Arsenic Exposure
[link to hermes.mbl.edu]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 02:24 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
To give you some historical background, and eyewitness and patient history, here's a documentary on the 1918 Pandemic Flu. This will open your eyes, I think.

The point is not to worry you. The point is to make you aware of the challenges. This allows you to let your mind turn over the issues and do a natural unfolding of events as you imagine this sort of pandemic in 2013. How would it be different or the same?


Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 02:25 AM
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 02:26 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Isn't there some crazy flu going around here in the NE US, and they're running out of flu vaccines here?

LMAO what a fucking MSM drummed up BS shitstorm, but still fun to watch.

popcorn
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 02:15 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
For those interested in actual pandemic numbers, there's an inherrent weakness in the system. It relies upon truthfulness of the central facility that calculates the biostatistics coming in. If the reports come in, but are repressed from being calculated and communicated, then the public can't get the real data.

Since journalists don't understand complex aspects of medicine, then they rely upon truthfulness from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Often they merely parrot whatever the CDC says, because maybe they're not health technical writers.

[link to cryptome.org]

Here's a link which exposes this practice of repressing data, probably to calm the public. This is from the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic not the current one.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 02:16 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 06:27 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
In science, you'll frequently hear someone say, "Garbage In, Garbage Out." It's a term meaning bad data, no matter how well analyzed produces poor conclusions, even when done scientifically.


Because of the failure of the CDC to compile all the data, then comparing season to season produced from their data, then we can't really do good analysis. It only gives us a glimpse or snapshot, and since they filter out some of the hospitalization or even stop counting for whatever reason, then it's infuriating from a medical research perspective.

Sometimes you have to exclude some data, because maybe you don't have verification of actual evidence that a specific strain was detected, so that's equally frustrating because some dingdong health official didn't an autopsy, or some family for religious reasons didn't allow it, or some doc didn't order the test, or whatever.

One really super nice person is trying to see some trending on the age of victims, but I fear that it's flawed. Still here it is:
[link to www.flutrackers.com]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 06:28 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 08:29 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
This is an interesting hypothesis from a medical professional regarding a root cause of the current influenza epidemic in the US as well as the Norovirus too.
[link to www.promedmail.org]

"My hunch is that we can tie some of the impact of influenza this year [2012-2013] to Hurricane Sandy. I started thinking about this during a meeting with my MN1-DMAT [Minnesota-1, Disaster Medical Assistance Team]. It was triggered by a comment about an outbreak of norovirus at the medical shelter that my team was staffing.

I started thinking that maybe the use of shelters during the hurricane brought a lot of people in much closer proximity to each other at a time when influenza was just starting to ramp up for the year but not at a time when it was symptomatic. There was clear evidence of transmission of Spanish flu during the 1918 pandemic over the summer and that it had mutated substantially during those months. I am not arguing that there was any mutation due to Hurricane Sandy but strictly that there was probably a lot of transmission in those close quarters."

More at the link above.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 08:29 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 09:08 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Detection the Seriousness of Pandemics by Supply Chain Disruptions

One of the topics that most interests me is early detection of disaster issues by watching changes that occur in the supply chain.

Most of us assume that the government has huge stockpiles of supplies, and then when a disaster occurs, then all they have to do is move the supplies from the delivery area to the needed area. If you think about it, then you know that is not true. One could merely look back to Hurricane Sandy and see that it took a long time, weeks sometimes for even water to be delivered.

Why does that happen? We know that there are some reserves. Why are those not deployed to the disaster zones?

The most likely answer is that a buffer is needed for government first responders. Whomever they send ...will need water themselves. They know approximately how many first responders to send in a general first wave but not how many refugees are affected.

It would be impossible to guess how much bottled water would be needed because the nature of a disaster is that we don't know where it will occur. We could anticipate how much water is needed, but then where would we store it so that it could reasonably get to the refugees in time?

While city and county utilities in local government produce water, the Federal government doesn't that much, and they don't have bottling facilities. The Department of Defense might produce some bottled water, but they also contract for it, and this is what will probably happen in a disaster like a pandemic.

A contract is listed on FedBizOps [link to www.fbo.gov (secure)] and then those who are registered and possess an ID can bid on those contracts, and so sometimes things get noticed by folks like GLPers (like a lot of MREs) and then they put up a topic. This is likely one very good way to detect a ramping up of needed supplies in order to assist anticipated refugees in a zone.

Because a pandemic is by definition everywhere, you can expect not only shortages but worse, companies, state, and federal organizations are competing for fast delivery of supplies. That will cause supply chain disruptions. Because the supplies have to be moved most likely by trucking, and truckers could get sick like anyone or have issues with sick family members or be freaking out about contagion since they're moving into a hot zone, then expect issues with supply chain disruptions too.

Because certain things like water purification chemicals could run low for city utilities, that could be a worse case scenario. This is why if things get bad, you need to prioritize water and or your own pool shock so you can improve the water quality coming in.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 09:12 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/13/2013 09:43 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
If there were a severe epidemic or pandemic, how could we best communicate

In a severe epidemic or pandemic, it's possible for telephone service to go down. A lot of worried people can shut down communications, and then critical infrastructure can't use telephone communications. This means that if it's bad, you might not be able to check on people and they might not be able to call you or health authorities. If they're getting slammed with requests for ambulances, for often the flu progressed to worse pandemic pneumonia or bacterial pneumonia as a secondary infection, then it doesn't matter if the phones are operating or not.

One of the ideas floated for people who are very sick with flu, would be to take a pillowcase and drape it across a window or door to indicate contagion within. Another idea is to write on the door in paint showing: 1) the number inside, 2)the number of ill people and 3)the number who died. This would allow first responders to quickly assess a neighborhood because they sure don't have time to knock door-to-door. For one thing, they have no idea in a pandemic if anyone is there, for some might flee a pandemic zone and spread illness.

That number might be needed by neighborhood carpenters making pine box coffins. That was done in 1918. So was burial.

Those numbers could be used by several people getting together, making soup, and then delivering it too. Then another group could make Oral Rehydrating Solution (ORS) in the aproximate packages needed and deliver it.

Some of you may shudder at that. You also might worry that it projects weakness and potential crime. It could conceivably cause stolen vehicles as gas gets low and gas stations are closed. Obviously if there is contagion inside, then no intelligent criminal is going inside, not for a long time.

However the dumbest criminals are often drug users seeking a fix. They will burglarize a home at times when no smart criminal would, and many armed confrontations happen because of this. Since they can't get a fix from their dealer, they might go looking especially if it's known that you use pain medicine or are elderly. Therefore weaker, potentially richer, and score drugs all at once.

The pillow method is very vague and means more communication is needed. Alternatively, the pillow could be placed in a certain method to indicate kinds of need. Probably if you start seeing information like that being disseminated, then you know the influenza this season is dangerous.

In 1918, despite race and religious differences, a lot of volunteers especially women (since men were off fighting in WW1) went around and helped people by acting as nurses, cooks, watching children, etc. They also volunteered at field hospitals because they didn't have enough nurses and support staff. They were extraordinarily brave and many did it because of their spiritual beliefs.

I wonder today if people would volunteer in the same percentages as 1918. I hope so. They were more trusting in some ways, but more racist in other ways, and yet they still did it because it was the right thing to do.

Because those people in 1918 had stored food in larders and pantries, they had food to give away. A lot of businesses closed, so volunteers didn't just run to the grocery, buy food for neighbors (maybe 5-15 of them) and then cook for them. They pulled from the food they had themselves.

This means they put themselves at risk by entering the homes of sick people and caring for strangers. Would you do that? You might need to.

You might be good at organizing and well liked in your neighborhood. As such, you could more easily get things going to help. Other people won't be good at social skills, but they're great one-on-one. Other people are terrors at social skills but could cook. Other might be very old, but could watch children.

Everyone could do something, because firewood needs to be chopped or deadwood gathered. Some strong guys may need to fetch water and haul it back. Someone may need to go for medicine for it's easier for one or two to get medicine for 100, then have 100 try to fetch it. Things get altered in an emergency. Some might act as security to watch the neighborhood. Some might be gophers (Go for this, go for that).

You think you'll be huddled inside, but in 1918, they helped each other. Otherwise more would have died.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/13/2013 09:58 PM
Sol Neman

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01/14/2013 12:45 AM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
From last spring. Interesting considering it's the H3N2 strain going around currently.

[link to www.baltimoresun.com]
[link to www.kid-mask.com]
[link to www.kid-mask.com]
[link to www.kid-mask.com]


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[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Educate and inform the whole mass of the people...They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty ~ Thomas Jefferson
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Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/14/2013 12:53 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?


Sol, among the flutracking folks, the scariest thing we worry about is a family that gets it and they all die in a brief time. It's a cluster, often around a farming family where say something like chicken or pig are raised. Watch for those clusters. They're major red flags. Thanks for participating.

Sometimes elderly folks will get Legionella, which can cause atypical pneumonia and they could up blood, but it's a virus so that's unusual. One of the stories was remarking about that.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/14/2013 12:55 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/14/2013 05:49 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Looks like we're getting there. Trying to find a direct link to some official data. Some hospitals are on diversion or bypass. What that means is they're getting slammed with too many patients or too many influenza patients and so they divert the ambulance to take them elsewhere. We could see very high hospital census.

[link to www.decodedscience.com]

So far it's the worst influenze outbreak in a decade. Boston is particularly hard hit. If you live there, be extra careful and try to do some social distancing. Listen carefully when at public events, and if you hear a lot of coughing and sneezing, leave. You want to think twice if you really need to be around, or if attending a concert wouldn't be better when the flu abates. Be careful even going to church. A lot of young parents might bring their kids when they really should stay at home.

Nosocomial infections are a serious concern during a pandemic. You've got a lot of contaminated air from flu patients and it could affect the weaker patients already in the medical center since the flu is so contagious. Watch for some headlines in your area discusses that. Usually those nosocomial infections are UTI, but now, it's anyone's guess.

A lot of hospitals have special respirators when a patient's lungs start shutting down and can't perfuse their tissues enough. The problem is contaminations of the respirator plus issues with deciding who get to use the limited number of respirators. They could COPD patients or cystic fibrosis kids or young adult and they'd be out of luck.

[link to www.ziyadnazem.info]

CDC Estimates Over 200,000 Will Be Hospitalized in 2013 Due to H3N2 Influenza Outbreak

"The 2013 flu season is forecasted to be a particularly harsh one due to the aggressive flu strain designated as H3N2 that is sweeping the nation and causing many to become hospitalized due to the symptoms. In a study conducted by the CDC, on average, more than 200,000 people in the United States are hospitalized each year for respiratory and heart conditions illnesses associated with seasonal influenza virus infections. Further, considering the peak of the flu season occuring around February or March this year, we are likely to see a drastic increase of flu victims as this relentless flu continues to wreak havoc."

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/14/2013 06:04 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/14/2013 05:31 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
If there are issues with blocking of websites, particularly GLP then:

All you have to do is type "204.74.214.194." in the URL, then bookmark it. Then test the link by clicking on the bookmark. It will slightly change the formatting if you've got some javascript turned off. It still will work though.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/15/2013 04:39 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Here's one research study, that doesn't believe it will develop into a pandemic.

"Cases of a novel swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) variant (H3N2v) have recently been identified in the US, primarily among children. We estimated potential epidemic attack rates (ARs) based on age-specific estimates of sero-susceptibility and social interactions. A contact network model previously established for the Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Canada was used to estimate average epidemic (infection) ARs for the emerging H3N2v and comparator viruses (H1N1pdm09 and an extinguished H3N2 seasonal strain) based on typical influenza characteristics, basic reproduction number (R0), and effective contacts taking into account age-specific sero-protection rates (SPRs). SPRs were assessed in sera collected from the GVA in 2009 or earlier (pre-H1N1pdm09) and fall 2010 (post-H1N1pdm09, seasonal A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2), and H3N2v) by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. SPR was assigned per convention based on proportion with HI antibody titre &#8805;40 (SPR40). Recognizing that the HI titre &#8805;40 was established as the 50%sero-protective threshold we also explored for ½SPR40, SPR80 and a blended gradient defined as: ¼SPR20, ½SPR40, ¾SPR80, SPR160. Base case analysis assumed R0 = 1.40, but we also explored R0 as high as 1.80. With R0 = 1.40 and SPR40, simulated ARs were well aligned with field observations for H1N1pdm09 incidence (AR: 32%), sporadic detections without a third epidemic wave post-H1N1pdm09 (negligible AR<0.1%) as well as A/Brisbane/10/2007(H3N2) seasonal strain extinction and antigenic drift replacement (negligible AR<0.1%). Simulated AR for the novel swine-origin H3N2v was 6%, highest in children 6–11years (16%). However, with modification to SPR thresholds per above, H3N2v AR &#8805;20% became possible. At SPR40, H3N2v AR &#8805;10%, &#8805;15% or &#8805;30%, occur if R0&#8805;1.48, &#8805;1.56 or &#8805;1.86, respectively. Based on conventional assumptions, the novel swine-origin H3N2v does not currently pose a substantial pandemic threat. If H3N2v epidemics do occur, overall community ARs are unlikely to exceed typical seasonal influenza experience. However risk assessment may change with time and depends crucially upon the validation of epidemiological features of influenza, notably the serologic correlate of protection and R0."
[link to www.plosone.org]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/15/2013 04:43 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
It looks like NJ is going to be hard hit. If you live there, I'd purchase some medical supplies now, rather than when the infection rate is higher. Doing so will expose you less than when it's more prevalent.

"During testimony before the Assembly Health Committee this morning, Dr. Shelley Greenman, who works in the ER at Cooper University Hospital said “we are seeing unprecedented volumes of people coming into the emergency departments with flu – I’ve been in the ER for 21 years and frankly I’ve never seen anything like this… it’s really throwing people for a loop – they are really quite ill, and looking forward to being ill for about a week or so.”
[link to nj1015.com]

This echos similar findings that the national epidemic may be the worst in a decade, and hence surpassing the very bad concerns in 2009 with H1N1.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/15/2013 04:44 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Reported US Pediatric Flu Deaths Increase To 38

We're getting some discrepencies in the number of deaths between official CDC biostatistics and accounting being done by researchers. See below.

"Recent updates have increased the number of reported US adolescent flu deaths to 38, almost double the 20 cases reported by the CDC in the week 1 FluView. Most of the 38 cases have been lab confirmed (see list below) and most that have not been confirmed have been reported in 2013 and will soon be confirmed. Fourteen on the 18 cases not reported in FluView have been reported in the media or state lab reports in 2013."
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
As an epidemic increases, there are consequences. There will be an abnormal increase in the use of certain supplies like hand santizer. Such sudden demand will likely cause shortages of those kinds of supplies. Why? Because of Just-in-Time inventory practices, companies make products based upon routine demand. They stock them as briefly as possible. They order them as needed, for otherwise they allocate assets to supplies that they don't need.

Now some increasing demand will necessarily follow as the influenza rate of contagion increases, as hospitals are flooded, as more people are sickened, and as people are concerned. DON'T PANIC. Panicking solves nothing. Act rationally, but purchase supplies that would reasonably be used during the course of a routine epidemic. Doing so, you won't waste money, but may enhance your protection in the short-run.
[link to www.hollywoodreporter.com]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/15/2013 06:05 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 03:19 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Influenza Epidemic in NJ puts ER's operating at close to full capacity

Diversions are always bad in an ER situation. It means more delay when the patient is fragile. It could contribute to higher mortality rates due to the extended amount of time needed to transfer them further than normal. In the case of an epidemic with many ER's on diversion, then an ambulance must go sometimes to the next part of town or borough in an urban environment. They might have to go to the next town.
Not good, highly abnormal
.

This backs up the ER, for the other patients are not being seen in which at best is not a timely manner to begin with.

Remember that many ER patients end up being admitted if in the kind of state in which an ambulance must bring them to the ER. That means even more delays, for someone must admit them to MED/SURG in many cases. That means delays, beds prepped, scurrying to bring an RN down. Some will go to be admitted to a surgical wing in worse cases.


[link to www.mycentraljersey.com]
"The flu epidemic gripping Central Jersey has forced rescue squads to consider transporting patients to hospitals outside their coverage area as emergency rooms are operating at near full capacity.

A survey of Central Jersey hospitals has revealed that emergency rooms and critical care units are operating close to maximum occupancy due to the flu outbreak.

Raritan Bay Medical Center in Old Bridge is on “bypass,” according to hospital spokesman Eric Muench.

“We’re seeing a lot of volume in the emergency room,” he said. “It’s a mix pf patients, not just those with the flu. We’re still receiving patients in the emergency room, but we’re notifying rescue squads if there is a place to bring a patient they should do so.”

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 03:25 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 03:28 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
50% of cases in the 1918 Pandemic Flu had co-morbidity (both influenza and bacterial infections) in the 2009 Pandemic Flu (H1N1) 33% had co-morbidity with bacterial infections.
[link to jama.jamanetwork.com]

"
ABSTRACT

Bacterial coinfection complicated nearly all influenza deaths in the 1918 influenza pandemic and up to 34% of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infections managed in intensive care units worldwide. More than 65 000 deaths attributable to influenza and pneumonia occur annually in the United States. Data from 683 critically ill patients with 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection admitted to 35 intensive care units in the United States reveal that bacterial coinfection commonly occurs within the first 6 days of influenza infection, presents similarly to influenza infection occurring alone, and is associated with an increased risk of death. Pathogens that colonize the nasopharynx, including Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Streptococcus pyogenes, are most commonly isolated. Complex viral, bacterial, and host factors contribute to the pathogenesis of coinfection. Reductions in morbidity and mortality are dependent on prevention with available vaccines as well as early diagnosis and treatment."

In many of those cases, since the bacteria can't be cultured in time, unless the patient exibits symptoms of a bacterial infection, and many won't for awhile, then by the time the physician detects the bacteria, the patient can die with serious influenza plus bacterial infections like those above in bold.

In the 1918 Pandemic Flu, often in 24 hours, the patient might die.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 03:31 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 07:13 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Right now, mask makers are using overtime to ramp up mask prduction. There is no shortage, so don't panic. Only one company is having difficulty and really scurrying to meet demand. Recall what I said earlier. We could see more shortages, mostly from hospitals and medical centers trying to protect their personnel. They have to continuously toss them, right? There's a lot of contagious people so they're switching out gloves, gowns, masks, using more santitizer, etc. They're seeing higher volumes of people
[link to www.khou.com]

Wouldn't it be smart and prudent to purchase a few things so you have them? Don't waste money. Respond don't react.

As far as I know, the only real shortage is liquid Tamiflu. It's given to children to treat influenza symptoms.
[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 07:16 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 07:21 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Henry Niman PhD is a researcher in the field of communicable diseases. He's been at the forefront of examining influenza transmission and virulence (strength of the particular pathogen). He's noting that there's a higher amount of pediatric deaths this season, and that some are not being reported. However it still is small.

We don't know if it's a spike, or if that phenomena will be sustained. It's is news worthy though regardless.
[link to www.recombinomics.com]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 07:34 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
A small number of schools are closing. Remember my earlier postings. When the number decreases to a certain point, the amount of tax dollars is not enough (per student daily census) to offset the operating costs. In addition, it's a public health issue of contagion spreading.

16% of the students missed due to sickness and a 27% of teachers in Troy Idaho.
[link to www.krem.com]

You'll begin to see these happening with more and more frequency if the epidemic worsens. So far it hasn't been a lot, but as a good critical thinker you should be vigilant for YOUR AREA. That's usually a function of population density.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 07:35 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/16/2013 07:39 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The worst place to be during an epidemic or a pandemic is in an airplace or sitting in a terminal. A lot of the workers fly while still sick (up to 50% do this). You're in a confined space breathing recirculating air. You're sitting uncomfortably close to others, even forced to touch their airms next to you.

It's common sense to be wary.

Be smart, especially if you're pregnant, for pregnant moms have to watch flying anyway for various health reasons, and we know that some influenza manifests far WORSE in pregnant women.

Be prudent. Must you fly now?
[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
Professional aircrews' attitudes toward infectious diseases and aviation medical issues
"Aircrews often flew while ill (or with ill crewmembers); 52% flew until fever reached 38 degrees C (100.4 degrees F) and an additional 37% flew up to 38.89 degrees C (102 degrees F). Rate of annual influenza vaccination was quite low for all groups, but especially so for airline crews (21-27%), even given potential occupational exposure risk. Crews also had strongly differing perceptions of employer views on self-grounding, depending upon employment setting."

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 07:41 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
There's a new study, and in it, there seems to be a correlation between influenza infection (even if viral) which may in turn result in an ear infection (otitis media) that is BACTERIAL in cause.

[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]
"Our data suggests that the influenza virus HA facilitates disease by inducing a pro-inflammatory response in the middle ear cavity in a replication-dependent manner. Importantly, our findings suggest that it is the inflammatory response to IAV infection that mediates pneumococcal replication."

In medicine, most docs don't want to prescribe medicine (an antibiotic usually amoxicillin with clavulanate as a liquid) for children. The reason is it usually viral, and so will heal on it's own. Now we have one study (so scant evidence but interesting), that the initial inflammation from the virus weakens the immune response, and allows things like Staph or Strep bacteria to infect the ear.

Negotiate sensibly with your doc based upon symptoms and your child's history. It's common sense. If for two years at this time they get a bad ear infection with a lot of pain and then you have to finally get antibiotics, then maybe they'll write a script for it. Then don't fill it until you need to. That saves you a trip and wasted time.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/16/2013 07:51 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/18/2013 01:13 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.weku.fm]

In my native state, influenza has now shut down schools in six counties. We can expect more. As the attendence drops below a certain threshold (maybe 80%) then the school cannot make it financially. The margin is too low. The risk too high for transmission of the influenza.

Some of the kids may have Norovirus. Because people use the word "flu" for both respiratory illness as well as gasteroenteritis (vomiting and or diarrhea), then it's confusing and foolish to use as a medical term.

Because a lot of children and teenagers will then go home and not have parents home, they will hang out, drive to malls, play at the playground, get together and eat pizza, etc. Then they still will transmit disease. Realistically, I doubt there's anything to do about that. They should stay at home, particularly if it gets worse.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/18/2013 01:15 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/18/2013 01:20 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
WHO Influenza Tracking
[link to www.who.int]

The World Health Organization has not updated their influenza tracking since December 2012. That's bad. We know the influenza is in many countries. However a lot of data is being tabulated. Some countries don't have a lot of money to do that. It might be February before they update it.
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?


Influenza is in a much higher rate than normal in Korea, and their CDC has issued a warning. Right now, the virus detected in Korea is H1N1 which is the same kind that was an issue, but not the Pandemic H1N1 variant. (I know that's complicated. I'll explain more later.) The USA strain is a variant of H3N2.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/18/2013 06:25 AM
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01/18/2013 06:36 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
This explains the naming of viruses based upon H (hemagglutinin) groups and N (Neuraminidase) groups.

Most influenza in this era is H1N1 and H3N2.

Humans get Influenza A and B. Influenza A affects humans, but also birds and mammals. Influenza B affects humans and seals.



Because type A can affect birds and mammals, an influenza type A can jump species from a bird, affect a pig, which is a major concern since a pig has a very similar circultory sysytem (we actually used to use replacement heart valves from pigs), then pass the illness to a human.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/18/2013 06:38 AM
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01/18/2013 06:49 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to southwestminneapolis.patch.com]

"The total number of deaths is now nearly as high as that of the swine flu outbreak of 2009-10, which killed 67 Minnesotans. The number of flu-related hospitalizations actually exceeds the total of 2009-10."

"The department’s latest report also showed that flu has struck a total of 107 skilled nursing facilities in the state, as well as 254 schools."
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.onlinesentinel.com]

Maine flu epidemic unrelenting
Number of cases already 12 times greater than last year's
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01/18/2013 06:52 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
"The New York State Health Department released the latest data on the influenza epidemic in the state on Jan. 17. As of Jan. 12, week 2 of 2013, New York labs had confirmed 23,501 cases of influenza in the state. This is the second highest total to be reported in the last decade, exceeded only by the flu season of 2009-2010 when the state experienced pandemic influenza. In that flu season, 25,082 cases were laboratory confirmed."
[link to www.examiner.com]

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