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If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

 
Vic-chick13

User ID: 2439198
Canada
01/18/2013 06:58 AM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Thanks again, for all the great info here.
hf
Le Palma

User ID: 32504731
United States
01/18/2013 07:52 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

 Quoting: Don'tBeAfraid

PANDEMIC throwing down sick beats like this might
be a good indication something is up
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:28 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.zerohedge.com]

While I don't entirely agree, this is a methodology of discerning interest in pandemic influenza. That doesn't necessarily corelate to infection incidence.

The idea is simple. A lot of physicians are connected to the Internet all the time. They use emedicine.com and uptodate.com and medscape, but they also use general searches to discern the level of infection and catch the news. They also are looking for ways to tell if, "Is it this or that? Is it whooping cough or influenza? Is it croup or pneumonia? Is it a fungal infection? Is it an occupational hazard that irritated the lungs? Is it an allergic reaction and the onset of asthma?"

Likewise patients and family members are using Internet searches to get informed and discover ways to do self-care, particularly in light of the global economic downturn. It's cheaper and might be as effective.

It might also be that one person makes daily searches and unless Goodle is doing IP tracking, which they do in fact do, then you'd get a lot of duplication. That's supposed to be eliminated, but then you have wifi with Iphones and school and work computers, so you still could get duplication.

Look at multiple sources that might indicate an epidemic is evolving to a pandemic. So far, I don't think it is. Not all epidemics are bad, but they can be. Don't overreact.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 12:31 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:34 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.flutrackers.com]

Some really good-hearted folks here have put up a list of health department links plus are tallying themselves. It's a laborious process for medical nerds like me. It's one more way to get some epidemic surveillance.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:35 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
It is in Newfoundland and Labrador now.
[link to www.flutrackers.com]

Many links there.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:38 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.cdc.gov]

The CDC has begun doing media advisory reports by streaming audio. This is to facilitate the spread of information about epidemic influenza. Believe me, they don't waste money on projects like this unless there's an issue. Things are very tight in medical budgets especially in government areas. It's not like Defense spending.

It's a red flag.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:40 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The World Health Organization (WHO) finally did an influenza update. Here it is:
[link to www.who.int]

It's very buried from the normal practice of influenza surveillance. While the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic flu was hyped by WHO, they got severely criticized and probably lost funding from governments and are being cautious. That's entirely my supposition.

The whole story is that the CDC in the USA severely curtailed reporting of the data, some would even remarked they suppressed data, while simultaneously promoting that the influenza had peaked but ignored data which falsely created that illusion in 2009. It was bad science, but probably reduced overreaction and panic.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 12:43 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:45 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
We know influenza is prevalent in British Columbia and elevated now.
[link to www.bccdc.ca]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 12:47 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The European Influenza data can be accessed here:
[link to www.euroflu.org]
"EuroFlu - Weekly Electronic Bulletin - Week 2 : 07/01/2013-13/01/2013 - 18 January 2013, Issue N° 471

Large variation in influenza activity across the WHO European Region



Summary, week 2/2013

Consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) and/or acute respiratory infection (ARI) are now increasing in almost all countries in the Region.
However, influenza activity is still largely limited to the western part of the Region, where widespread transmission is being reported by most countries currently.
While influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and type B viruses are circulating in the Region, the proportion of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 continues to increase, relative to influenza B and A(H3N2), and accounts for 84% of influenza A viruses subtyped.
The number of reported hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is increasing slowly along with a rising proportion of patients testing positive for influenza.

The EuroFlu bulletin describes and comments on influenza activity in the 53 Member States in the WHO European Region to provide information to public health specialists, clinicians and the public on the timing of the influenza season, the spread of influenza, the prevalence and characteristics of circulating viruses (type, subtype and lineage) and severity. "

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 12:48 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24909641
Australia
01/19/2013 12:54 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
It's already here.

A hospital in PA is full. I know a lot of kids are home sick locally & around the state.

Nationally, it's wide spread.

Your best defense is to take Vit. D3.
 Quoting: mopar28m


How many people who got the flu hadn't been vaccinated?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24909641
Australia
01/19/2013 12:55 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
that's just it...people wouldn't take a flu threat seriously.
Back in the "olden days" a family would avoid going to town for weeks if they heard of an outbreak
 Quoting: Butterfly girl


Yes they were rather sensible back then.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:03 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
It's already here.

A hospital in PA is full. I know a lot of kids are home sick locally & around the state.

Nationally, it's wide spread.

Your best defense is to take Vit. D3.
 Quoting: mopar28m


How many people who got the flu hadn't been vaccinated?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641


I can answer that aproximately.

Vaccination according to the CDC has an effective rate of around 62% from getting the specific flu mix (yes it's a mix) that they assume will infect folks in that specific region. It's a coin toss.

However they got the mix WRONG this year. So if everyone got vaccinated by influenza vaccine, it wouldn't protect anyone from the strain which is proving infectious and more dangerous.

The vaccination rate is around 37% of the USA, and is largely driven by induced vaccination. They must get vaccinated as a function of working in their jobs or school. Therefore it's not a personal choice as it has been in history.

Getting vaccinated this year, wouldn't protect you from that specific strain that is so bad. It would protect you with a 62% effective rate (we think) against the specific strains in the mix.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:04 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 32513258
United States
01/19/2013 01:05 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
flutracker.com
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:06 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
that's just it...people wouldn't take a flu threat seriously.
Back in the "olden days" a family would avoid going to town for weeks if they heard of an outbreak
 Quoting: Butterfly girl


Yes they were rather sensible back then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641


Self-isolation is a pragmatic solution. The problem is population density. It's apples and oranges for most Americans. They live in such a density as to make self-isolation very difficult. School closures lead to teenagers going to the mall instead and not stopping the spread of illness.

Because parents work, they bring home illness. It's that simple. There's little chance of self-isolation.

Now the cities with lower incidence rates and lower case-fatalities in the 1918 Pandemic, they closed businesses, schools, houses of worship, public functions, funerals, etc. They did self-isolate successfully, but we're not there yet.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:09 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 32513258
United States
01/19/2013 01:06 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Sorry, should be flutrackers.com
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24909641
Australia
01/19/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
One has to take responsibility, be as proactive s possible concerning bacterial and viral infections, first make cleaning your environment and body paramount, and utilize what nature has provided to assist your body and build immunity.

During flu season we drink a tea made from olive leaf and green/black teas and peppermint that w drink daily and have not had as much as a cold in over 6 years. During the summer months if we even sense a cold might be starting, we take a shot glass of colloidal silver every three to four hours and this solves the problem.

Olive tree (Olea europaea) leaves: potential beneficial effects on human health
[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

Oil of Oregano
[link to www.homeremediesweb.com]

Oil of Oregano
[link to www.digitalnaturopath.com]

Curcumin and Turmeric
[link to www.turmeric-curcumin.com]

The Health Benefits of Cilantro
[link to www.globalhealingcenter.com]

Iodine
[link to iodine4health.com]

Colloidal silver
[link to altered-states.net]
 Quoting: SilverPatriot


Just a thought would those hand held steam cleaners help to kill germs in high traffic areas? Door knobs, taps? Just a thought.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:12 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
One has to take responsibility, be as proactive s possible concerning bacterial and viral infections, first make cleaning your environment and body paramount, and utilize what nature has provided to assist your body and build immunity.

During flu season we drink a tea made from olive leaf and green/black teas and peppermint that w drink daily and have not had as much as a cold in over 6 years. During the summer months if we even sense a cold might be starting, we take a shot glass of colloidal silver every three to four hours and this solves the problem.

Olive tree (Olea europaea) leaves: potential beneficial effects on human health
[link to www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]

Oil of Oregano
[link to www.homeremediesweb.com]

Oil of Oregano
[link to www.digitalnaturopath.com]

Curcumin and Turmeric
[link to www.turmeric-curcumin.com]

The Health Benefits of Cilantro
[link to www.globalhealingcenter.com]

Iodine
[link to iodine4health.com]

Colloidal silver
[link to altered-states.net]
 Quoting: SilverPatriot


Just a thought would those hand held steam cleaners help to kill germs in high traffic areas? Door knobs, taps? Just a thought.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641

Of course it will for the time being. It will cut down on germ levels. If someone gets sick in your household, scrupulously clean AND change their sheets. You want to cut down on the transmission to your family, while caring for them.

Using inexpensive diluted vinegar will really help, but be careful of bleeding the dyes in some fabrics.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 24909641
Australia
01/19/2013 01:14 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
that's just it...people wouldn't take a flu threat seriously.
Back in the "olden days" a family would avoid going to town for weeks if they heard of an outbreak
 Quoting: Butterfly girl


Yes they were rather sensible back then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641


Self-isolation is a pragmatic solution. The problem is population density. It's apples and oranges for most Americans. They live in such a density as to make self-isolation very difficult. School closures lead to teenagers going to the mall instead and not stopping the spread of illness.

Because parents work, they bring home illness. It's that simple. There's little chance of self-isolation.

Now the cities with lower incidence rates and lower case-fatalities in the 1918 Pandemic, they closed businesses, school, public functions, funerals, etc. They did self-isolate successfully, but we're not there yet.
 Quoting: Don'tBeAfraid


Isolation would be impossible in the modern world.

The top places for infection are
- public transport
- doctors rooms/ hospitals
- nursing homes
- schools/crèches
- shopping malls
- mail
- currency
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:19 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
that's just it...people wouldn't take a flu threat seriously.
Back in the "olden days" a family would avoid going to town for weeks if they heard of an outbreak
 Quoting: Butterfly girl


Yes they were rather sensible back then.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641


Self-isolation is a pragmatic solution. The problem is population density. It's apples and oranges for most Americans. They live in such a density as to make self-isolation very difficult. School closures lead to teenagers going to the mall instead and not stopping the spread of illness.

Because parents work, they bring home illness. It's that simple. There's little chance of self-isolation.

Now the cities with lower incidence rates and lower case-fatalities in the 1918 Pandemic, they closed businesses, school, public functions, funerals, etc. They did self-isolate successfully, but we're not there yet.
 Quoting: Don'tBeAfraid


Isolation would be impossible in the modern world.

The top places for infection are
- public transport
- doctors rooms/ hospitals
- nursing homes
- schools/crèches
- shopping malls
- mail
- currency
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 24909641

The AC is quite correct. However, if everything shuts down, there are not visitations allowed at those places above. There isn't any transactions of currency. There isn't any mail. Most health care would be at home. Everything stops.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 01:20 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:23 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
A seperate strain of H1N1 is in Macedonia. It's infected 300.
[link to www.makfax.com.mk]

We have H3N2 in the USA, and in many places previously reported.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 01:26 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
New Jersey has taken an interesting step of creating a Flu Misery Map.
[link to www.njspotlight.com]

This shows the worst areas. It's an intriguing idea. It would of course be always delayed since statistics are delayed in being calculated and tabulated.
Abi ~

User ID: 25045778
United States
01/19/2013 04:35 PM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
I am still reading some of the pages, but I wanted to add.......I have been noticing a lot of people in my area wearing face masks...This is unusual...Occasionally you may see a person wearing one, but it is because they are sick or being treated for something and not in a particular flu season.....

but, the past week, they are out in full force...reminds me of China(?) where you see them all walking around with masks on because of bird flu...

My point>>> to see so many wearing face masks around town in MY area is highly abnormal....almost unheard of...so.....take that as you will...but puts a red flag up for me. I am in Illinois, btw

DBA..another great thread!


hf
You accept the love you think you deserve~~~

Love cannot live where there is no trust~~~

Truth has no temperature~~~
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/19/2013 08:57 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
I am still reading some of the pages, but I wanted to add.......I have been noticing a lot of people in my area wearing face masks...This is unusual...Occasionally you may see a person wearing one, but it is because they are sick or being treated for something and not in a particular flu season.....

but, the past week, they are out in full force...reminds me of China(?) where you see them all walking around with masks on because of bird flu...

My point>>> to see so many wearing face masks around town in MY area is highly abnormal....almost unheard of...so.....take that as you will...but puts a red flag up for me. I am in Illinois, btw

DBA..another great thread!


hf
 Quoting: Abi ~


Most people wear surgical masks. Those are masks that are meant to be worn for very short term use to block the transmission of germs from the wearer to the patient.

To protect themselves, medical staff will wear N95 masks to reduce the germs being shed by patients in the air. However those don't get tight fits on some people's faces, are meant to be very short term, and then tossed.

Now, people will wear them (both of them)longer and they will quickly be filled with moisture from breath and then air will travel around them and so, contaminate the wearer if a sick person is around.

They help, but only frequently changed and of the proper micron size, do nothing to protect. A virus is extremely small many magnitudses of order smaller than dust or bacteria. See for a brief interactive lesson on pathogen size.
[link to www.cellsalive.com]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/19/2013 08:58 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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United States
01/20/2013 02:56 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
There are numerous reports of H1N1 flu causing fatalitis in Poland, Jordan, Palestine, India, Sri Lanka, etc.

That's different that the H3N2 flu we have in the USA.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/20/2013 02:58 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Flu sending many elderly to hospitals, CDC says
[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]
" Jan 18, 2013 (CIDRAP News) – This year's edition of influenza is hitting the elderly hard, putting many in hospitals, even as overall flu activity is showing signs of slowing down, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today.

"We're in the middle of flu season, about halfway through, and it's shaping up to be worse than average and a bad season particularly for the elderly," CDC Director Thomas Frieden, MD, MPH, said at a noontime media briefing.

"Last week hospitalization rates increased sharply in people 65 and over, and this week they increased sharply again, going up to 82 per 100,000, which is quite a high rate," he said, referring to numbers in the CDC's weekly flu activity update. The cumulative all-ages hospitalization rate is 18.8 per 100,000. "
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/20/2013 10:44 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The Czech Republic is now in the midst of a flu epidemic:
[link to www.ceskenoviny.cz]
...

In the USA
We're at the typical midpoint of a influenza season. There's a drop in hospitializations for that. It might have peaked last week. We don't know if that's going to keep declining, but it's promising. It might be a data abberation due to a delay in tabulation of cases.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/20/2013 10:48 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/22/2013 10:00 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
If you live in Pennsylvania, you should be especially careful of the transmission if influenza. There's been a doubling of influenza death rates:
[link to www.portal.state.pa.us]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/22/2013 10:02 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Austria is getting hammered by influenza:
[link to madonna.oe24.at]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/22/2013 10:03 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Half of all pediatric visits in Venezuala are influenza now

Google for the article since the source is banned here.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
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01/24/2013 07:02 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
House Approves the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2013
[link to energycommerce.house.gov]
"WASHINGTON, DC – The U.S. House of Representatives today approved the bipartisan Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Reauthorization Act of 2013, H.R. 307, by a vote of 395 to 29. The legislation, introduced by Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), reauthorizes provisions of the Project Bioshield Act of 2004 and Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act of 2006 for an additional five years.

H.R. 307 continues to strengthen the nation's preparedness infrastructure and support development of medical countermeasures to better respond to chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear attacks."

Full text of the Bill can be found here:
[link to www.govtrack.us]

And yes, it's scary shit, but it looks like the epidemic peaked last wekk.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/24/2013 07:03 AM

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