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If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?

 
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
United States
01/25/2013 03:20 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Three items:

Czech Republic continues to see increasing influenza cases:
[link to www.szu.cz]

Closure of schools in Oklamhoma due to influenza:
[link to www.joplinglobe.com]

And most importantly, despite the reassurances of the CDC in the 2009 H1N1 Ifluenza Pandemic, the reality was that 24% of the world population got the flu. We got very lucky.

Because of that underplay of data (outright hiding it at times), you must do routine checks on influenza information. Because panic is always a concern, the powers that be will tend to calm folks down regardless of the seriousness of an epidemic or in this case pandemic.
[link to www.cidrap.umn.edu]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/25/2013 03:21 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/26/2013 07:17 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
We're seeing a large amount of elderly folks with influenza and a lot of hospitalizations and a much higher of influenza leading to pneumonia. It's the highest in a decade, but as yet as not exceeded the 1999-2000 season. If you start hearing docs on tv talking about aging parents and pneumonia that will be a red flag.

[link to www.cdc.gov]
"January 25, 2013 -- Influenza continues to cause a lot of illness across the country and flu-related hospitalization and death indicators have increased sharply in recent weeks. The latest FluView report shows some indicators decreasing while others continue to rise and underscores again that this flu season is taking the heaviest toll on people 65 and older. CDC is urging seniors to seek treatment for flu-like symptoms promptly and for physicians to treat flu with antiviral medications in these high risk patients as early as possible to avert more serious outcomes."

...

"The proportion of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza (P & I) reported through the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System is significantly elevated this week (9.8%), up considerably from last (8.4%), making this the third consecutive week that the proportion has been above epidemic threshold. (The epidemic threshold for Week 3 is 7.3%). Finelli explains, “This is the highest we’ve seen P & I go in nearly a decade, but it’s comparable to recorded percentages for past severe seasons, including 2003-2004 when P&I reached 10%, 1999-2000 when it reached 11.2%, 1998-1999 when it reached 9.7%, and 1997-1998 when it reached 9.8%. So yes, it’s a severe season, but it’s certainly not unprecedented for seasonal influenza.”

Another interesting benchmark for the season, according to Finelli, is the hospitalization rate for seniors. Influenza-related hospitalizations are assessed cumulatively throughout the season, and so the rate of hospitalization is expected to increase each week during flu season, as more flu-related hospitalizations are reported. During the first half of January 2013, the hospitalization rate for people 65 years and older climbed from just under 50 hospitalizations per 100,000 people (week ending December 29, 2012), to almost 98 hospitalizations per 100,000 people (week ending January 19, 2013). Previously, the highest hospitalization rate among seniors was 73.7 hospitalizations recorded during the 2007-2008 influenza season. But Finelli cautions: “CDC only began collecting this data for seniors in 2007 so it’s difficult to make the same kind of historical comparisons that we can for mortality.”

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/26/2013 07:21 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/26/2013 07:30 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
We're always low on blood, but now because of two epidemics: Influenza and Norovirus, we're getting hammered with additional patients plus seeing lower than normal blood donation. Remember, many hospitals ER Depts. are on "diversion". That means the ambulance has to go further, and if someone has been injured in a car wreck, then they desperately need blood plus have to go further for treatment. That's a dangerous situation.

If you're healthy and have given before without incident, then please consider donation.

The crucially short EMERGENCY regions are: Alabama, Georgia and Florida.
"An emergency blood shortage in Alabama, Georgia and Florida has the American Red Cross and LifeSouth calling for donors to help.

Although many donors have already given blood since the emergency was declared on Jan. 18, LifeSouth Vice President of Operations J.B. Bowles said that help is still needed.

"Folks are coming out to donate," he said in a press release. "While we are gaining ground in supply levels, we are still at emergency levels for blood types O-negative and positive and A-negative."

All blood types are needed to combat the shortage. AB-positive and negative types are especially needed along with A and B negative types. Bowles explained in the press release that Type O blood is an important kind to donate as it is considered a "universal" type. Type O positive blood is the most common blood type, he said."

[link to www.cbs7kosa.com]
Texas is also desperately need blood.
"ODESSA- United Blood Services announced a critical need for O-negative blood, and it’s impacting patients both young and old at hospitals across the basin.

“The shelves are bare,” said Lee Hartmann, the Center Director for United Blood Services. “There are a number of calls I get from hospitals where they ask for 20 units of O-negative blood and we can only provide one unit. That means there’s someone at the other end waiting for those units.”

Missouri is in the same situation
[link to articles.kspr.com]
"At the Community Blood Center of the Ozarks, the donation shortage has put the center on a what's called a Code Yellow alert. Organizers say that means they have less than a two-day supply of one of the most used blood types: O-Negative.

Normally, they have a seven-day supply on hand.
Organizers say, with the winter being a slower time for donations on top of the flu outbreak, they have been short for a longer period of time."

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/26/2013 07:36 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/27/2013 02:01 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
H1N1, the serious version that struck in the 2009 Global Pandemic has now been found in Germany (Deutschland)
[link to www.dnn-online.de]

It is also in Sweden:
[link to sverigesradio.se]

...and Iraq and China.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 01/27/2013 02:06 AM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/27/2013 02:04 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Although Norovirus is an illness that lasts 2-3 days and then normally departs, and different from the influenza that I've been reporting upon, I would be remiss in postings if I failed to mention it.

Norovirus is now a world-wide phenomena as an epidemic within so many nations as to be practically considered a pandemic, though one of lower concern.

[link to www.decodedscience.com]

You should not take it lightly.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
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01/28/2013 03:32 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The influenza in NY State has now exceeded Pandemic Flu levels in 2009.
[link to www.examiner.com]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/28/2013 03:34 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Influenza comes in waves, something that's forgotten or unknown by most patients. This article discusses the possibility that the 2nd wave will come soon.
[link to journaltimes.com]

In 1918 we had three waves of influenza.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/28/2013 03:36 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The World Health Organization (WHO) which was so slow to respond is not churning out a lot of documents about mitigation and preparation. It may soon be a pandemic.
[link to apps.who.int]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/28/2013 03:39 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Documentation that illustrates that despite what the CDC said in 2009, the H1N1 Pandemic was far worse than they communicated.
[link to www.firstpost.com]

"Flu pandemic infected one in five

London, Jan 27 (IANS) The 2009 flu pandemic infected one in five people, comprising 20 to 27 percent of the population in Britain, US, India and China and 15 other countries countries, says an international study.

The highest rates of infection were in children, with 47 percent of those aged five to 19 showing signs of having caught the virus.

Older people were affected less, with only 11 percent of people aged 65 or older becoming infected."
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 32113282
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01/28/2013 09:40 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
There's a large number of H1H1 influenza in China's Hebei prvince.

[link to www.he.xinhuanet.com]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/31/2013 12:19 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
There is a doubling of cases of H1N1 influenza in Romania now:
[link to stirileprotv.ro]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/31/2013 12:21 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
There's been a massive increase in hospitals of H1N1 swine influenza in Israel.
[link to www.haaretz.com]
" Flu outbreak leads to overcrowding in hospitals across Israel
Some wards in large cities strained by occupancy rates of around 150%; almost half of cases caused by a strain of swine flu, which caused a global epidemic in 2009."
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/31/2013 12:22 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
The French are having large amounts of influenza now:
[link to www.invs.sante.fr]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/31/2013 12:23 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
India is reporting a large number of influenza deaths.
[link to rajswasthya.nic.in]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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01/31/2013 12:24 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Egypt is reporting a very dangerous amount of Bird Influenza H5N1.
[link to empres-i.fao.org]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

User ID: 33440387
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02/01/2013 04:13 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
US Week 4 Pneumonia & Influenza Death Rate At 9.4%!!
Check out the link and the graph, it really jumped high!

[link to www.recombinomics.com]
"The above graph from the CDC week 3 FluView shows the Pneumonia and Influenza Death Rate spiking to 9.8%. Tomorrow’s week 4 FluView will show a decline to 9.4%, which remains higher than any week since the 2003-04 season. The high level in week 4 is associated with high rates across the country. When the rate spiked to 8.3% in week 2, there were 16 cities which had 10 or more P&I deaths and a rate above 10%. In week 3 then number of cities meeting the same criteria reached 36."

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 02/01/2013 04:14 AM
Vic-chick13

User ID: 2439198
Canada
02/02/2013 10:48 AM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Thanks again for keeping us updated DBA. I have crappy internet on a good day, really appreciate posters like you and Arkay, Luisport, Doorbert, etc. really helps to get so much good info in one place.
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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02/02/2013 10:58 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Thanks again for keeping us updated DBA. I have crappy internet on a good day, really appreciate posters like you and Arkay, Luisport, Doorbert, etc. really helps to get so much good info in one place.
 Quoting: Vic-chick13


You are quite welcome. Because there are actually three virus strains, H3N2 in the USA and Canada, and H1N1 in Europe and Asia, and the very worrisome H5N1 in Asia then we have to stay vigilant.

Pandemic flu is very serious. It's possible that the first two species could both cause a lot of sickness, hospitalizations, and death. The last one is the bad boy and so far seems self-limited. Pray that one doesn't ever spread.

So far the H3N2 species doesn't seem to be inducing a cytokine storm nor disproportionately affecting young people. That's the good news. The bad news is the H1N1 in Europe is that kind, but so far hasn't reached epidemic levels.

For a prepper, norovirus MUST always be taken seriously. In history, gasteroenteritis KILLED soldiers in wartime. In a collapse, a case of norovirus in the absence of clear water and soap could potentially infect and kill a family. It doesn't have to be something like norovirus, it can be common Staph aureus or Step pneumonia because those can easily cause gasteroenteritis. Staph aureus would likely be caused by lack of attention to butchering some game animal you hunted or trapped.

Strep pneumonia gives you both respiratory flu and stomach flu. Can you imagine have both at once and then progressing to pneumonia? That one gives me chills, to make a bad joke. That killed tons of people in history.

Pandemic could easily trigger a collapse of society.

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 02/02/2013 10:59 AM
Sol Neman

User ID: 33337982
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02/03/2013 12:27 AM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Thanks again for keeping us updated DBA. I have crappy internet on a good day, really appreciate posters like you and Arkay, Luisport, Doorbert, etc. really helps to get so much good info in one place.
 Quoting: Vic-chick13


Strep pneumonia gives you both respiratory flu and stomach flu. Can you imagine have both at once and then progressing to pneumonia?

 Quoting: Don'tBeAfraid


Yes, 5 years ago I had all that. I missed work for 2 full weeks. I actually went to a doctor for this one (I really try to avoid hospitals), they gave me a z-pack and said see you later. That was the last time I took antibiotics too. I remember well because after dealing with all the issues of kill everything antibiotics I decided it was time to change my diet and lifestyle. I lost some weight, started cooking at home again and really paid attention to what went in my body. I've slipped up on a few occasions but I have stuck to the new routine rather well and it has worked out for me. I try to find a natural remedy before anything else and try to avoid any pharmaceutical drug.
Educate and inform the whole mass of the people...They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty ~ Thomas Jefferson
Thread: We the People - A Storm is Brewing
Thread: Government should not be involved...
Thread: Plants & Animals dying en masse; Natural & man-made disasters; Strange events ~ Signs of the End?
Sol Neman

User ID: 33337982
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02/03/2013 03:24 PM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
News from Montana.

"Anaconda-Deer Lodge Pubic Health Department has confirmed 11 causes of Pertussis, or Whopping cough, according to Heidi Nielson, director of the health department..."
[link to www.ktvq.com]

"The whooping cough or Pertussis outbreak in Anaconda has been confirmed in the first adult. 25 Anaconda individuals are now confirmed to have the illness..."
[link to www.ktvq.com]

"The influenza virus shows no signs of slowing down as Flathead County is seeing another big jump in confirmed cases..."
[link to www.ktvq.com]
Educate and inform the whole mass of the people...They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty ~ Thomas Jefferson
Thread: We the People - A Storm is Brewing
Thread: Government should not be involved...
Thread: Plants & Animals dying en masse; Natural & man-made disasters; Strange events ~ Signs of the End?
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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02/03/2013 07:35 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
H1N1 is in Argentina and has shut down a hospital. It's a bad sign as mostly the influenza in North and South America has been H3N2 versus Europe and Asia which has been H1N1.
[link to www.clarin.com]
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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02/03/2013 07:37 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
Germany is starting to have serious influenza cases in Hamburg which have put several in intensive care. I am assuming that they are H1N1 cases based upon previous reports.
[link to www.abendblatt.de]

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 02/03/2013 07:38 PM
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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02/03/2013 07:43 PM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
[link to www.recombinomics.com]

"The CDC has released its first set of 2013 H3N2 sequences (at GISAID), A/Virginia/03/2013, from a patient (76F) in Virginia, collected on January 4. The H3 sequences had T128A, which abolishes the glycosylation site at position 126. This change is becoming increasingly common in H3N2 sequences in the United States as well as across the world, including recent sequences in Europe and Africa. This same change was present in the vaccine target for the 2004-05 season, A/Wyoming/03/2003, which was developed after the severed 2003-04 season which featured an H3N2 related to A/Fujian/411/2002. This Fujian H3N2 produced a Pneumonia and Influenza Death Rate of 10% in the United States which was associated with 154 pediatric deaths. The high fatality rate led to requirements for the reporting of all flu lab confirmed pediatric deaths in the United States, and some states also made the reporting of all adult fatal influenza cases under the age of 65 reportable also."
Don'tBeAfraid (OP)

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02/04/2013 04:16 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
I believe the influenza there is H1N1.

[link to www.yomiuri.co.jp]

"Influenza cases reach seasonal high[in Japan]

The Yomiuri Shimbun

The spread of influenza this winter reached its peak thus far after an estimated 2.14 million cases were reported in the week from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27, an increase of about 50 percent from the previous week, the health ministry said.

According to the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, the incidence of flu cases at about 5,000 medical institutions across the country averaged 36.44 in the week starting Jan. 21, a jump from the 22.58 cases seen the prior week."

Last Edited by Don'tBeAfraid on 02/04/2013 04:17 AM
Sol Neman

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02/19/2013 08:37 PM

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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
hmm...

Thread: Hazmat teams over girls death in CO
[link to www.google.com (secure)]
Educate and inform the whole mass of the people...They are the only sure reliance for the preservation of our liberty ~ Thomas Jefferson
Thread: We the People - A Storm is Brewing
Thread: Government should not be involved...
Thread: Plants & Animals dying en masse; Natural & man-made disasters; Strange events ~ Signs of the End?
Sol Neman
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04/04/2013 10:08 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
...


China confirms 4 more cases of H7N9, urges public to remain calm

"April 2, 2013 – CHINA - China reported today that four more people in one province were made seriously ill by a bird flu virus new to humans, while cities along the eastern seaboard stepped up public health measures to guard against a disease that has already caused two deaths. The health bureau of eastern Jiangsu province said in a notice on its website that three women, aged 45, 48 and 32, and an 83-year-old retired man, from different cities in the province, were all critically ill with the H7N9 virus, a diagnosis confirmed by the provincial disease prevention centre. These latest cases are the second batch to be confirmed after three in Anhui province and nearby Shanghai on Sunday..."

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37301372


NEW BIRD FLU STRAIN CAUSES FOURTH DEATH IN CHINA

"BEIJING (AP) -- A middle-aged man who transported poultry for a living has died from a new strain of bird flu, the fourth death among 11 confirmed cases in China, the government and state media reported Thursday.

The 48-year-old man, who died in Shanghai, is one of several among the infected believed to have had direct contact with fowl, which may carry the virus. Until recently, the virus, known as H7N9, was not known to infect humans..."


[link to hosted.ap.org]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6681425

Thanks for the update!
 Quoting: littlemiracles


Now they're saying there is the 5th confirmed death rather than the 4. Here's another article about it.

China reports fifth death from H7N9: mystery deepens on how virus is spreading

"Fifth death reported: Authorities in Shanghai said Thursday night that another person has died from H7N9 bird flu, bringing the death toll from the new deadly strain to five around the country. The city has reported six infections to date, and four have died, said the Shanghai Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission. Of the rest two, there was a four-year-old, the agency said. The baby was recovering from mild illness, it added. The person died at Huashan Hospital on Wednesday and was confirmed infected with the H7N9 strain on Thursday..."

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Sol Neman 6681425
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 6681425
United States
04/04/2013 10:09 AM
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Re: If there was a pandemic coming, how would we know?
...


NEW BIRD FLU STRAIN CAUSES FOURTH DEATH IN CHINA

"BEIJING (AP) -- A middle-aged man who transported poultry for a living has died from a new strain of bird flu, the fourth death among 11 confirmed cases in China, the government and state media reported Thursday.

The 48-year-old man, who died in Shanghai, is one of several among the infected believed to have had direct contact with fowl, which may carry the virus. Until recently, the virus, known as H7N9, was not known to infect humans..."


[link to hosted.ap.org]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 6681425

Thanks for the update!
 Quoting: littlemiracles


Now they're saying there is the 5th confirmed death rather than the 4. Here's another article about it.

China reports fifth death from H7N9: mystery deepens on how virus is spreading

"Fifth death reported: Authorities in Shanghai said Thursday night that another person has died from H7N9 bird flu, bringing the death toll from the new deadly strain to five around the country. The city has reported six infections to date, and four have died, said the Shanghai Municipal Health and Family Planning Commission. Of the rest two, there was a four-year-old, the agency said. The baby was recovering from mild illness, it added. The person died at Huashan Hospital on Wednesday and was confirmed infected with the H7N9 strain on Thursday..."

[link to theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Sol Neman 6681425

 Quoting: Sol Neman 6681425


Thread: Welcome to the beginning of the end (Page 73)

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