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Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.

 
Wash
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Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
Roll Tide Roll.
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01/11/2013 07:49 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It's the next thing to keep us busy.
Wash (OP)

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01/11/2013 07:52 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It's the next thing to keep us busy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2213911


Don't let your guard down.
Roll Tide Roll.
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
yawn yaWN FUCKIN YAWN!!! NOTHING WILL HAPPEN AS ALWAYS!!!
Lady Jane SmithModerator
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Interesting.

Keep us updated, Wash.
Life is karma and karma always reflects both past and present circumstance. Our time here is short, so choose carefully and behave well, for all of your tomorrows are presently being decided.

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"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool."
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Wash (OP)

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"Large AR 1654 is rotating into more geoeffective position. This large group consists of two main cores, in which the leader spot appears to be the most complex. Also, a new line of sunspots looks to be forming within the center of the cluster. The two dark cores, connected by a canopy of strong magnetic fields, are each big enough to swallow Earth four times over."

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
Roll Tide Roll.
Wash (OP)

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Interesting.

Keep us updated, Wash.
 Quoting: Lady Jane Smith


Thanks Lady Jane.
Will do.
Roll Tide Roll.
2012Portal
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01/11/2013 08:06 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Sunspot 1654 is kicking in, against all odds (they said it had less than a 5% chance of producing m-class flares!). That is a HUGE sunspot, visible from earth even:

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]


Here is another YouTube user who captured the M1.2 flare from 1654:

[link to www.youtube.com]

Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
Wash (OP)

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Sunspot 1654 is kicking in, against all odds (they said it had less than a 5% chance of producing m-class flares!). That is a HUGE sunspot, visible from earth even:

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]


Here is another YouTube user who captured the M1.2 flare from 1654:

[link to www.youtube.com]

 Quoting: 2012Portal


Thanks 2012. Good vids.
Roll Tide Roll.
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 08:21 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Those coming spots are some scary shit!hiding
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01/11/2013 08:24 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
iamwith
Madmacs

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01/11/2013 08:35 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
 Quoting: Wash


Earth Facing Decay...

Protected...

yoda
Machine42

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01/11/2013 08:40 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Is the sunspot in the earthbound zone of a flare yet? what is the time frame? What do you think is the percent chance of these sunspots joining/growing?
Wash (OP)

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Is the sunspot in the earthbound zone of a flare yet? what is the time frame? What do you think is the percent chance of these sunspots joining/growing?
 Quoting: Machine42


Yes it could hit earth if it popped off a large flare today, likely it would be a glancing blow.
Tomorrow and for days following it will be in better position to nail us if something big happened.

The percentage...that's hard to say. It could happen.
Roll Tide Roll.
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01/11/2013 08:51 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.


@forum...

Sunspot is now classified as a Beta Gamma Delta.

To those that are unaware of what that means:
That is about equivelant to being the 5 star general of girl scouts...
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 08:52 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.


@forum...

Sunspot is now classified as a Beta Gamma Delta.

To those that are unaware of what that means:
That is about equivelant to being the 5 star general of girl scouts...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420

view suspicious observers youtube to see more
[link to ] www.yout ube.com/watch?feature=player_ embedded&v=UqgXz__Rr8Q

Delete spaces in the link fyi...

Youtube isnt letting me imbed?
Wash (OP)

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.


@forum...

Sunspot is now classified as a Beta Gamma Delta.

To those that are unaware of what that means:
That is about equivelant to being the 5 star general of girl scouts...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


The different classifications
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
The delta classification
Let's digg a bit deeper into the magnetic delta class. This is the most interesting type of sunspot due to the high activity they can cause. With the following list you can determine whether a sunspot has a magnetic delta structure:

1.Delta groups are often very big and 90 percent of the sunspots have a reversed polarity with a high activity level, especially when big solar flares erupt. These have mostly a complex, unusual or broken view of the umbra.
2.Delta groups form by the are formed by the aggregation of sunspots with opposite polarity of various dipoles, which are linked to shared magnetic field lines rather than direct magnetic lines. All spots are located in the penumbral region.
3.Delta spots often last longer than one rotation of the Sun than other sunspots. However, new delta spots can be formed within the same area.
4.Delta sunspot groups usually do not separate, but rather die together.
5.Active delta groups emit strong H-alpha emissions. Sometimes filaments can come out of the group.
Roll Tide Roll.
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01/11/2013 08:59 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
 Quoting: Wash


Earth Facing Decay...

Protected...

yoda
 Quoting: Madmacs


You have said this same exact statement on 3 sun threads alike...

Also the flares are heightening in both intensity and growth...
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01/11/2013 09:08 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.


@forum...

Sunspot is now classified as a Beta Gamma Delta.

To those that are unaware of what that means:
That is about equivelant to being the 5 star general of girl scouts...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


The different classifications
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
The delta classification
Let's digg a bit deeper into the magnetic delta class. This is the most interesting type of sunspot due to the high activity they can cause. With the following list you can determine whether a sunspot has a magnetic delta structure:

1.Delta groups are often very big and 90 percent of the sunspots have a reversed polarity with a high activity level, especially when big solar flares erupt. These have mostly a complex, unusual or broken view of the umbra.
2.Delta groups form by the are formed by the aggregation of sunspots with opposite polarity of various dipoles, which are linked to shared magnetic field lines rather than direct magnetic lines. All spots are located in the penumbral region.
3.Delta spots often last longer than one rotation of the Sun than other sunspots. However, new delta spots can be formed within the same area.
4.Delta sunspot groups usually do not separate, but rather die together.
5.Active delta groups emit strong H-alpha emissions. Sometimes filaments can come out of the group.
 Quoting: Wash


If you check the following thread: Thread: Sunspot as big as Jupiter com in' round the bend (Page 9)

I had bets going that we would see a beta delta within 48 hours...

The gamma addition was a bit of a surprise:)

The umbra's positionings were pretty obvious of become a delta class from 24 hours into observation... Its the lower right side glassing off that's really something special about 1654...

Wondering if we should start the Large eq prediction threads for a 7-10 day window... If this thing decides to lash at us I assume to see some heightened activity in that department...
Veresanctus

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01/11/2013 09:15 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Largest sunspot ever recorded 1947

[link to www.eaas.co.uk]

1947 sure was a special year I tell ya

Last Edited by Veresanctus on 01/11/2013 09:17 AM
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"For all the law is fulfilled in one word, even in this; Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself. But if ye bite and devour one another, take heed that ye be not consumed one of another.

This I say then, Walk in the Spirit, and ye shall not fulfil the lust of the flesh. For the flesh lusteth against the Spirit, and the Spirit against the flesh: and these are contrary the one to the other: so that ye cannot do the things that ye would. But if ye be led of the Spirit, ye are not under the law.

Now the works of the flesh are manifest, which are these; Adultery, fornication, uncleanness, lasciviousness, Idolatry, witchcraft, hatred, variance, emulations, wrath, strife, seditions, heresies, Envyings, murders, drunkenness, revellings, and such like: of the which I tell you before, as I have also told you in time past, that they which do such things shall not inherit the kingdom of God. But the fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, longsuffering, gentleness, goodness, faith, Meekness, temperance: against such there is no law. And they that are Christ's have crucified the flesh with the affections and lusts.

If we live in the Spirit, let us also walk in the Spirit. Let us not be desirous of vain glory, provoking one another, envying one another." -- Galatians 5:14-26
Madmacs

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01/11/2013 09:16 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
 Quoting: Wash


Earth Facing Decay...

Protected...

yoda
 Quoting: Madmacs


You have said this same exact statement on 3 sun threads alike...

Also the flares are heightening in both intensity and growth...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


Waiting to be proved wrong..no matter how many threads...
(dont want anything bad to happen, but I have seen this EFD be very strong last year or so) once they turn to away from earth.."thar she blows !!!)
Wash (OP)

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01/11/2013 09:17 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.


@forum...

Sunspot is now classified as a Beta Gamma Delta.

To those that are unaware of what that means:
That is about equivelant to being the 5 star general of girl scouts...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


The different classifications
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
The delta classification
Let's digg a bit deeper into the magnetic delta class. This is the most interesting type of sunspot due to the high activity they can cause. With the following list you can determine whether a sunspot has a magnetic delta structure:

1.Delta groups are often very big and 90 percent of the sunspots have a reversed polarity with a high activity level, especially when big solar flares erupt. These have mostly a complex, unusual or broken view of the umbra.
2.Delta groups form by the are formed by the aggregation of sunspots with opposite polarity of various dipoles, which are linked to shared magnetic field lines rather than direct magnetic lines. All spots are located in the penumbral region.
3.Delta spots often last longer than one rotation of the Sun than other sunspots. However, new delta spots can be formed within the same area.
4.Delta sunspot groups usually do not separate, but rather die together.
5.Active delta groups emit strong H-alpha emissions. Sometimes filaments can come out of the group.
 Quoting: Wash


If you check the following thread: Thread: Sunspot as big as Jupiter com in' round the bend (Page 9)

I had bets going that we would see a beta delta within 48 hours...

The gamma addition was a bit of a surprise:)

The umbra's positionings were pretty obvious of become a delta class from 24 hours into observation... Its the lower right side glassing off that's really something special about 1654...

Wondering if we should start the Large eq prediction threads for a 7-10 day window... If this thing decides to lash at us I assume to see some heightened activity in that department...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


I would guess your going to be right regarding EQs. The fact that we have not had a large EQ since early Dec will also play into this.
Roll Tide Roll.
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 09:26 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Largest sunspot ever recorded 1947

[link to www.eaas.co.uk]

1947 sure was a special year I tell ya
 Quoting: Veresanctus


[link to www.you] tube.com/watch?v=heh3GB53HT0

funny...

There was a tsunami and earthquake in japan in 1947.

ironically the 9.0 on march 11, also followed an x class solar event (within 48 hours after impact)...

can we do a date comparison? via any known cme's in 1947 in addition to the 1947 japanese tsunami....?

If there was a flare prior to that quake there could be a link to there scale of events...
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 09:30 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Largest sunspot ever recorded 1947

[link to www.eaas.co.uk]

1947 sure was a special year I tell ya
 Quoting: Veresanctus


[link to www.you] tube.com/watch?v=heh3GB53HT0

funny...

There was a tsunami and earthquake in japan in 1947.

ironically the 9.0 on march 11, also followed an x class solar event (within 48 hours after impact)...

can we do a date comparison? via any known cme's in 1947 in addition to the 1947 japanese tsunami....?

If there was a flare prior to that quake there could be a link to there scale of events...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


I can't find a date for the 1947 japanese eq.
Also Do they have cme / flare records for that year?
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 09:32 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
 Quoting: Wash


Obama needs to ban solar flares.
If it saves just one child...
dance
sun
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 09:48 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
"A significant flare from the active region would seem to be just a matter of time. AR1654 is slowly turning toward Earth, so the chance of an Earth-directed explosion is growing as well."

[link to spaceweather.com]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Updated at: 2013 Jan 10 2200 UTC
FLARE 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
CLASS M 50 % 50 %
CLASS X 05 % 05 %
 Quoting: Wash


Obama needs to ban solar flares.
If it saves just one child...
dance
sun
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31962599


[link to www.google.com.au]
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 09:55 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Here's a list of earthquakes in 1947

[link to earthquakes.sciencedaily.com]

Dodgy link but if you put 1947 into the filter bar on the left they will show.

[link to earthquakes.sciencedaily.com]
T-Cain
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01/11/2013 09:59 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
wtf is going on with the power lately? Every day its failing. It just went out again for the 3rd day in a row.
2012Portal
2012Portal - The Mayan Calendar

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01/11/2013 10:02 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
Sunspot 1654 is kicking in, against all odds (they said it had less than a 5% chance of producing m-class flares!). That is a HUGE sunspot, visible from earth even:

[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]


Here is another YouTube user who captured the M1.2 flare from 1654:

[link to www.youtube.com]

 Quoting: 2012Portal


Thanks 2012. Good vids.
 Quoting: Wash


Your welcome.
Thank you for the thread!


On that note, ACTIVE sunspot flare -

We are Flaring folks, right now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Heading into M-class territory now...

Last Edited by 2012Portal on 01/11/2013 10:05 AM
Mayan Calendar and 2012-
From the love of power to the power of Love -
[link to 2012portal.myfeedportal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 10:03 AM
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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
NOTHING EVER HAPPENS. It's the next thing to keep us busy.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2213911




clappa clappa clappa
Wash (OP)

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01/11/2013 10:05 AM

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Re: Solar activity begins picking up with an M1.2 flare earlier today. AR 1654 still turning towards earth.
X flux is climbing straight up. Take a look.
Roll Tide Roll.

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