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EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!

 
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 09:34 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Actually I think that nothing serious will happen, it'll be just a normal day in Portugal peace
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31820383


My thoughts exactly peace
 Quoting: King_RA


are you crazy???
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 09:40 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Many rivers in the north including Rio Lima flooding allready!!! And worst is yet to come!
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2013 09:51 AM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
5a
Anderson_G

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01/18/2013 10:07 AM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Europe is getting smashed and there is still more to come

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]
Anderson_G

<<<<<<<<<<<<LEARN ADAPT OVERCOME>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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King_RA

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01/18/2013 10:36 AM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Actually I think that nothing serious will happen, it'll be just a normal day in Portugal peace
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31820383


My thoughts exactly peace
 Quoting: King_RA


are you crazy???
 Quoting: Luisport


yesbanana2
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2013 10:59 AM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
And just what does a wave in the of Magellan have to with a storm in Portugal and Spain?

Giant Wave Impact in Other on Thursday, 17 January, 2013 at 10:39 (10:39 AM) UTC.

Description
Luxury cruise line Silversea has been forced to cancel a cruise onboard the Silver Explorer after the ship was damaged by a giant wave in rough weather while on an 18-night voyage in South America. Media reports claimed four crew suffered minor injuries when a wave struck in the waters between Tierra del Fuego and Antarctica. The cruise line confirmed all 133 passengers and 113 crew were safe, but the damage to the ship was severe enough for Silversea to cut short the cruise and to cancel its next sailing on January 21. The ship has returned to Ushuaia in Argentina, where it departed in early January. It is expected to resume service with a 10-night cruise departing on January 31. [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
 Quoting: Luisport
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:09 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
And just what does a wave in the of Magellan have to with a storm in Portugal and Spain?

Giant Wave Impact in Other on Thursday, 17 January, 2013 at 10:39 (10:39 AM) UTC.

Description
Luxury cruise line Silversea has been forced to cancel a cruise onboard the Silver Explorer after the ship was damaged by a giant wave in rough weather while on an 18-night voyage in South America. Media reports claimed four crew suffered minor injuries when a wave struck in the waters between Tierra del Fuego and Antarctica. The cruise line confirmed all 133 passengers and 113 crew were safe, but the damage to the ship was severe enough for Silversea to cut short the cruise and to cancel its next sailing on January 21. The ship has returned to Ushuaia in Argentina, where it departed in early January. It is expected to resume service with a 10-night cruise departing on January 31. [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
 Quoting: Luisport

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32204235


more storm surges forming...
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 11:11 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
GFS12z in 975hpa, vai the wave of the WRF MeteoGalicia.

Depression will go directly over the north coast, the strongest winds will be registered between Porto and Lisbon, with special emphasis ace saws center and coast between Aveiro and C. Carvoeiro, where the early morning gusts could reach or surpass the 130-140km.h.

Precipitation and some locally intense convective cells capable of producing locally strong winds and heavy showers are also expected.

The analysis will present atmospheric pressure shows a deviation of -0.5 to-1hPa will face pressure provided by WRF in Oporto and Lisbon, and the analysis indicates Satelite movements already strong survey / Rise NW of the center of low pressure, some convective rebentamnetos in front cold and dry slot to the WSW of the birth center, this behavior supports the aggravation that GFS12z models.

This situation is serious, I advise you to prepare for the possible occurrence of structural damage especially in constructions weaker danger of flooding especially in urban areas and in the coastal strip, power cuts, fallen trees and cutting of roads, particularly in the districts between Douro and Tagus.
[link to www.meteopt.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:13 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
As the GFS points, mean winds above 110km / h (gusts imagine ...) to 850h/Pa, and this is really a depression dug, ie, that level is about 1100/1200 meters only, just over half the height of the mountain.

That is, average wind gusts and even stronger at higher elevations be expected.
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Only Tejo and Douro rivers are not flooding in this moment!

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/18/2013 11:15 AM
DracoLX

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01/18/2013 11:22 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
...GFS12z in 975hpa, vai the wave of the WRF MeteoGalicia.

Depression will go directly over the north coast, the strongest winds will be registered between Porto and Lisbon, with special emphasis ace saws center and coast between Aveiro and C. Carvoeiro, where the early morning gusts could reach or surpass the 130-140km.h....
 Quoting: Luisport


Hi Luis, by yes by no (in Zézé Camarinha's english cruise ) we better keep an eye on it. This depression will probably enter mainland northern than expected. So north region and Spain will be severely affected. The southern regions will have sustained winds of 100/110 km/h and severe gusts at 1000/1100 meters of altitude. The probable severe rain will affect the already saturated soils and also dams that are already on full load. Join it with rough 6/7 meters waves in high tide and we defenitly have a serious doom sceanrio ramping up in Portugal. The tornados scenario isn't quite plausible. There is simple no rotation to withstand a tornado. Yet... not impossible. Dear tugas be safe. And nuestros hermanos as well.

peace
Draco

Last Edited by DracoLX on 01/18/2013 11:25 AM
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:37 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
...GFS12z in 975hpa, vai the wave of the WRF MeteoGalicia.

Depression will go directly over the north coast, the strongest winds will be registered between Porto and Lisbon, with special emphasis ace saws center and coast between Aveiro and C. Carvoeiro, where the early morning gusts could reach or surpass the 130-140km.h....
 Quoting: Luisport


Hi Luis, by yes by no (in Zézé Camarinha's english cruise ) we better keep an eye on it. This depression will probably enter mainland northern than expected. So north region and Spain will be severely affected. The southern regions will have sustained winds of 100/110 km/h and severe gusts at 1000/1100 meters of altitude. The probable severe rain will affect the already saturated soils and also dams that are already on full load. Join it with rough 6/7 meters waves in high tide and we defenitly have a serious doom sceanrio ramping up in Portugal. The tornados scenario isn't quite plausible. There is simple no rotation to withstand a tornado. Yet... not impossible. Dear tugas be safe. And nuestros hermanos as well.

peace
Draco
 Quoting: DracoLX


hf
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:42 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Attention will next tide of 19-20h, the winds will be strong from SW, with large swell, possibly arises from some cm'se already see the rivers with large flows, or even rise.

Some land especially near the mouths may experience some flooding ..

At least we're lucky we're not in tides ...
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 11:50 AM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
river Ave floodings photos: [link to www.meteopt.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 12:08 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Ponte de lima floods [link to twitter.com]
Anonymous Coward
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Russian Federation
01/18/2013 12:51 PM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
...GFS12z in 975hpa, vai the wave of the WRF MeteoGalicia.

Depression will go directly over the north coast, the strongest winds will be registered between Porto and Lisbon, with special emphasis ace saws center and coast between Aveiro and C. Carvoeiro, where the early morning gusts could reach or surpass the 130-140km.h....
 Quoting: Luisport


Hi Luis, by yes by no (in Z&#233;z&#233; Camarinha's english cruise ) we better keep an eye on it. This depression will probably enter mainland northern than expected. So north region and Spain will be severely affected. The southern regions will have sustained winds of 100/110 km/h and severe gusts at 1000/1100 meters of altitude. The probable severe rain will affect the already saturated soils and also dams that are already on full load. Join it with rough 6/7 meters waves in high tide and we defenitly have a serious doom sceanrio ramping up in Portugal. The tornados scenario isn't quite plausible. There is simple no rotation to withstand a tornado. Yet... not impossible. Dear tugas be safe. And nuestros hermanos as well.

peace
Draco
 Quoting: DracoLX


Really big waves is forecasting during next 72h for Portugal coastline:
[link to www.meteoinfo.ru]

Can this add level in rivers? And what you can expect if rivers alreadyin flashflood state, as desribed here?
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 12:53 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
[link to sat24.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/18/2013 12:54 PM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Since fuck all every happens in Portugal you really can't blame the natives for being super excited by a severe storm ROFLMAO!
Perseus -]+[-
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Greece
01/18/2013 01:57 PM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
good luck, luisport!
 Quoting: Swinburnian


Geezzzzzzzzzz i'm very scared! We are not prepared!!!
 Quoting: Luisport

food, water, radio and his batteries, flashlights, head lights(you can use both hands doing things and see ),
seal doors, windows,cover glasses in windows and doors with
plastic stickers(they dont crack easy with the winds and if
they crack they dont harm you easy), full charge mobile phones, litle propane camping cooking stove for basics,
and litle or normal propane heater
stay in contact with neighbors to help each other if needed

good luck
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 02:02 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
This event is similar to the ciclone of 1941: 1941 - Cyclone
On February 15, 1941 Portugal was devastated by a cyclone which left a trail of destruction across the country, and a large number of dead, wounded and missing.

The extent and severity of damage even took it to be remembered as "the day the cyclone."

According to reports at the time, the cyclone formed between Madeira and Cape St. Vincent and the wind will hit in Lisbon speed of 127 km / h. In the rest of the country the winds reached even higher, with the anemometer Serra do Pilar to record gusts of 167 km / h.

The damage was considerable: roads cut, thousands of trees uprooted, houses destelhadas, chimneys toppled, homeless families, telegraph and telephone connections interrupted, sinking ships, etc.., As can be seen in the news published in the journal The Century that here we provide. [link to www.cm-lisboa.pt]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 02:04 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
+[- 691183:MV8yMTEzNjg2XzM1NjUzNDc1XzE0QkY1QTFF]
good luck, luisport!
 Quoting: Swinburnian


Geezzzzzzzzzz i'm very scared! We are not prepared!!!
 Quoting: Luisport

food, water, radio and his batteries, flashlights, head lights(you can use both hands doing things and see ),
seal doors, windows,cover glasses in windows and doors with
plastic stickers(they dont crack easy with the winds and if
they crack they dont harm you easy), full charge mobile phones, litle propane camping cooking stove for basics,
and litle or normal propane heater
stay in contact with neighbors to help each other if needed

good luck
 Quoting: Perseus -
Thank you so much! This is very usefull!hf
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 02:08 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
This event is similar to the ciclone of 1941: 1941 - Cyclone
On February 15, 1941 Portugal was devastated by a cyclone which left a trail of destruction across the country, and a large number of dead, wounded and missing.

The extent and severity of damage even took it to be remembered as "the day the cyclone."

According to reports at the time, the cyclone formed between Madeira and Cape St. Vincent and the wind will hit in Lisbon speed of 127 km / h. In the rest of the country the winds reached even higher, with the anemometer Serra do Pilar to record gusts of 167 km / h.

The damage was considerable: roads cut, thousands of trees uprooted, houses destelhadas, chimneys toppled, homeless families, telegraph and telephone connections interrupted, sinking ships, etc.., As can be seen in the news published in the journal The Century that here we provide. [link to www.cm-lisboa.pt]
 Quoting: Luisport


Images of 1941 ciclone!!! [link to www.google.pt]
Perseus -]+[-
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Greece
01/18/2013 02:09 PM
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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
+[- 691183:MV8yMTEzNjg2XzM1NjUzNDc1XzE0QkY1QTFF]
good luck, luisport!
 Quoting: Swinburnian


Geezzzzzzzzzz i'm very scared! We are not prepared!!!
 Quoting: Luisport

food, water, radio and his batteries, flashlights, head lights(you can use both hands doing things and see ),
seal doors, windows,cover glasses in windows and doors with
plastic stickers(they dont crack easy with the winds and if
they crack they dont harm you easy), full charge mobile phones, litle propane camping cooking stove for basics,
and litle or normal propane heater
stay in contact with neighbors to help each other if needed

good luck
 Quoting: Perseus -
Thank you so much! This is very usefull!hf
 Quoting: Luisport

my pleasure:)
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 02:27 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
This depression is going a little more to north than forecasted... look out Galicia!!!
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 02:34 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Forecast Update
Valid: Fri 18 Jan 2013 18:00 to Sat 19 Jan 2013 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 18 Jan 2013 17:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 1 was issued for Portugal and extreme W-Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk. There exists the possibility of a damaging wind event during the end of the forecast period over parts of Portugal.

A level 1 area was issued for the E-Aegean Sea mainly for heavy rain.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

This outlook was issued mainly to evaluate the wind/tornado risk over Portugal with newest data. For the rest of the outlook, only cosmetic changes were performed as the outlook seems to be on track (e.g. downgrading the level 1 over the NW Aegean Sea).

... Portugal and W/NW Spain, 00Z onwards ...

This event encompasses 2 rounds, first the cold front passage at roughly 03Z and the damaging wind event with attendant back-bent occlusion.

WV imagery and latest ASCAT data confirm the interaction of a strong vort max with a pronounced hyperbaroclinic zone at roughly 45°N/ 40°W. Since then, a rapidly intensifying and expanding wind field was noted in available remote-sensing data. Sampled wind speeds over the NE Atlantic agree nicely with latest model output, showing a 60 m/s mid-level jet just about to approach the depression. Placed beneath its exit region, the rapid deepening phase of the depression seems to be a likely outcome. Inflow trajectories into this depression emerge from the tropics, so beside an increasing dynamic component, latent heat release becomes another factor to assist this rapid deepening phase. Main model guidance hints at a 20 hPa pressure drop with some members exceeding 30 hPa before landfall over NW-Portugal just after midnight.

Phase diagrams in the past few model runs showed some fluctuation regarding the final strength of the depression, but there was and still is a persistent sign of a warm-seclusion, affecting Portugal during the end of the forecast. Landfall may disturb explosive deepening somewhat, but we think that a well structured back-bent occlusion will be in full progress as this depression comes ashore.

a) cold front between 00Z onwards:
There still exists some uncertainties regarding the strength and structure of this cold front. Despite a pool of dry air currently entering the depression's center, we think that this depression will already reach its occlusion stage before landfall. Hence, the dry slot will already wrap around the center and may be displaced from the eastward surging cold front (in addition to ongoing mixing with the ambient more humid air mass). Nevertheless, the magnitude of the PVA/lift will be impressive and a forced line of convection accompanies the cold front, probably LEWP-ish. Prefrontal moisture advection (surface dewpoints in the mid-tens) and neutral lapse rates atop may provide some low-end CAPE support. This cold front will be embedded in a 25-30 m/s near BL flow, so widespread severe wind gusts can be anticipated during the cold front passage. An isolated tornado event along that line is possible, given intense speed and moderate directional shear.

b) back-bent occlusion 03Z onwards:
Confidence increased that a concentrated swath of damaging wind gusts may accompany that back-bent occlusion during the end of the forecast with gusts along the W-coast likely exceeding 35 m/s. No DMC is anticipated with this feature, so this magnitude of wind will not be reflected in our warning scheme. For warning information, please refer to your national weather service, e.g. ipma.
[link to www.estofex.org]
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 03:05 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
The wind gusts are just terrible now...
Luisport (OP)

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Portugal
01/18/2013 03:39 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Ryan Maue&#8207;@RyanMaue

Potent little low about to impact Spain & Portugal. Strong winds to curl thru Gibraltar -- bad days for a sail [link to twitter.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 01/18/2013 03:40 PM
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 03:54 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Diário de Notícias&#8207;@dntwit

#Portugal Proteção Civil aciona alerta laranja em oito distritos [link to dlvr.it] Ler [link to www.DN.pt]
more allerts
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 04:33 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
pressure falling to 992.8mb
Luisport (OP)

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01/18/2013 04:40 PM

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Re: EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Re: Mon Forecast and Models - January 2013

-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------

Depression is beginning to take shape, it is clearly the kind of behavior Depression Caving fast, whether it is explosive or not, I do not know, but it seems so far. Notice how in the last frames of the animation, in 2 or 3 hours, everything starts to take shape quickly.

And you are further north or not, I do not know, the past outputs of the GFS and others, he has always changed a little path to the north, passing the center of the depression in Galicia, and at this point does not seem far from reality .

Anyway, stronger winds are south and west of the center of the depression. From 3 am, in satellite images, according to the area of occlusion present a more or less sharp hook that separates convection air very dry, we have better sense of intensity because it is in this region that we have the most dangerous winds.

The MeteoGalicia now also raised the alert to red, these stronger winds in coastal areas should occur roughly from south of Figueira da Figueira da Foz to Galicia in all this coastal strip. Behind the center will pass around the north coast also have high winds.

In terms of structure of the cyclone, it is probably between Porto and Figueira da Foz bursts that may occur more intense, but it is always relative.

[link to www.meteopt.com]

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