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Message Subject EPIC STORM TO PORTUGAL AND NORTH SPAIN!!! RED ALLERT JUST NOW!!! Min Pressure 967.8 hPa!!!
Poster Handle Luisport
Post Content
... Portugal and far NW Spain ...

The main show likely will be a heavy rain/wind event with limited DMC probabilities. Positive tilt of this impulse keeps CAPE values on the lower end side despite rich LL moisture spreading ashore. Favorable dynamics and upper-level support cause a prolonged period with heavy rain, but embedded convection seems unlikely. The focus however will be the passage of the cold front and occlusion beyond midnight. Expected phase diagrams and impressive dynamics point to a potential warm seclusion event with an active back-bent occlusion/potential sting jet, so the main concern will be 03Z onwards:

a) the cold front may consist of a forced line of shallow convection (EL temperatures shy below -10 °C) within a 30 m/s 850 hPa background flow. Severe wind gusts will be the main risk and I don't want to exlcude an isolated tornado event due to rapidly increasing LL shear along the coast.

b)the back-bent occlusion approaching the W coast of Portugal thereafter (around 06Z onwards). GFS hints at 30-35 m/s winds just above the BL with mixed maritime Atlantic air mass spreading ashore. The concern exists for a concentrated swath of severe to damaging wind gusts.

Low confidence in any electrified activity kept lightning probabilities low (offshore) or non-existent (onshore), so a level 1 for the wind risk with the aforementioned cold front should cover that risk for now. The eastern edge of the level 1 depicts the rough cold front position at 06Z. Please keep in mind that this level area does not cover the winds of the occlusion due to missing convection.

[link to www.estofex.org]
 
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