January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm - 1/20 Evening Update
By Andrew at 4:58 PM
This is the current situation unfolding with the potential winter storm that would fall within the timeframe of January 24-27. I have displayed the two most reliable weather models' ESTIMATED tracks (I say estimated because I believe the ECMWF is actually a bit further south) for this storm system. There is a very messy agreement that the storm will happen, but that's where the line is drawn. While the ECMWF projects widespread accumulations, much of which falls within the blue 'Potential Accumulating Snow' area, the GFS is much more restricted on snow, with only parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast benefitting.
At the moment, out of consistency, lower cyclone track error and overall better verification in recent runs than the GFS, I'm feeling much better siding with the ECMWF than the GFS. I feel that the GFS is just too wobbly for my liking, while the ECMWF has a swath of accumulating snow down pat in a situation much more fit to happen with frigid Arctic air to the immediate north. Additionally, the ECMWF's ensemble system is in good agreement with the blue ECMWF track, greatly enhancing the credibility of such a track. On the contrary, the GFS' ensemble system is disorganized with this system and should not be taken at face value- it faces some of the same issues as the GFS model itself.
At the moment, I will side with the blue track, but I will not map out accumulations due to model disagreement that I am not comfortable deciphering for the time being.
Exciting times ahead for many in this nation!
Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de