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The storms continue to UK!!!

 
Luisport

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01/24/2013 11:57 AM

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The storms continue to UK!!!
Historic North Atlantic Superstorm Possible for Saturday
.

By Fred Pickhardt On January 23, 2013

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.

A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday. It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.

The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
[link to gcaptain.com]

Last Edited by Luisport on 02/04/2013 03:41 PM
1908247

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01/24/2013 11:58 AM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
first fullmoon of the year, under the sign of Leo is this saturday/sunday

thanks for the report luis!

hf
- ? Nus.

-You Hold Witness I Witness

As if he could, by himself, say:
_Alive, therefore life itself.
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:04 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
first fullmoon of the year, under the sign of Leo is this saturday/sunday

thanks for the report luis!

hf
 Quoting: 1908247


hf
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:05 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
[link to www.ipma.pt]
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 12:06 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
OMG!!!!!! I've never seen one like this....
[link to magicseaweed.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 12:11 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
OMG!!!!!! I've never seen one like this....
[link to magicseaweed.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32921733


That looks as if there is a center of warm water under the ocean moveing with the current.... as if emmited from underneath... Methane leak or fissure crack????
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:15 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

a millibar lower than last run, monster extratropical storm forecast to reach 919 mb over N. Atlantic. [link to twitter.com]


Last Edited by Luisport on 01/24/2013 12:33 PM
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:21 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
[link to www.ecmwf.int]
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:22 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
[link to www.ecmwf.int] to 27th January
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 12:24 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
OMG!!!!!! I've never seen one like this....
[link to magicseaweed.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32921733


That looks as if there is a center of warm water under the ocean moveing with the current.... as if emmited from underneath... Methane leak or fissure crack????
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1149758

God knows, but thankfully, it isn't going to effect me. However, friends of mine in Glasgow are going to be hammered.
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:25 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
[link to www.ecmwf.int]
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:40 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Ian Fergusson‏@fergieweather

"@bbcweather: Snowy weather followed by heavy rain is expected across the UK in next few days. John Hammond explains. [link to bbc.in] "
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:41 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

While a warmup is on the way for the UK, there will be rain and high winds coming too. [link to ow.ly]
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:44 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
[link to www.wetterzentrale.de]
King_RA

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01/24/2013 12:48 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
wow
Once again nice thread, thankshf
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:50 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
wow
Once again nice thread, thankshf
 Quoting: King_RA


this is a big bomb... i can't imagine what a monster like this could do here... hiding
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 12:52 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

a millibar lower than last run, monster extratropical storm forecast to reach 919 mb over N. Atlantic. [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


That'll keep the German U-boats under water for a bit, eh mate?
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 12:59 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

a millibar lower than last run, monster extratropical storm forecast to reach 919 mb over N. Atlantic. [link to twitter.com]

 Quoting: Luisport


That'll keep the German U-boats under water for a bit, eh mate?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23554071


lolsign
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 01:04 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Yep, I've been posting in the FI thread some of the charts being thrown up recently showing a storm with an even lower pressure than that.

From today's 12Z GFS ensembles :

[link to modeles.meteociel.fr]

And a nasty one for us :

[link to modeles.meteociel.fr]

Entering into a period of wet and windy weather from the end of this week, potential is there for it to be very windy at times, worth keeping an eye on. [link to www.boards.ie]
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 01:06 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
12Z GFS winds up that low off the northwest on Friday to to 959mb.

Worth keeping an eye on, if that track shifted south the west/northwest would be in for some severe winds.

Then the next day the GFS produces another Atlantic low (not near Ireland) with pressure down to 925mb, which in itself if interesting because only a handful of north Atlantic storms on record have been below 930mb. [link to www.boards.ie]
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 01:13 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
great post once again! Thanks.
Trickster

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01/24/2013 01:23 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
5*s
Luisport the Watcherthumbs
And Miles to go before I sleep, miles to go before I sleep....
Anonymous Coward
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01/24/2013 01:27 PM
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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
bump
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 01:34 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
5*s
Luisport the Watcherthumbs
 Quoting: Trickster


Thank's!!!hf
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 02:14 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
bump
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 02:26 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

48-hour position & min pressure of 923 mb for historical explosive extratropical cyclone --> "warm seclusion" [link to twitter.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 02:31 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Saturday NATL "bomb" in extreme tail of distribution of explosive extratropical cyclones -- from 30-50 per year in NATL & NPAC
n
4 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Low-level (700-850 hPa) warm air "secluded" at center surrounded by major hurricane force winds -- could be 100-knots easily on s. flank

6 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

My PhD dissertation was titled "Warm Seclusion Extratropical Cyclones" -- freely available at FSU. [link to etd.lib.fsu.edu] …Lots of graphics
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 02:40 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

It's this feature from the SW into Tie and Wed that could very nasty for parts of the N and W [link to www.wetterzentrale.de] …
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 02:42 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
85. 1900hurricane07:37 PM GMT em 24 de Janeiro de 2013

In regards to the North Atlantic Bomb, it will really be interesting to see how low it goes. The GFS has been showing it at about the same intensity for the past 24 hours worth of runs, with the NCEP MAG page showing a closed 928 mb isobar, shown here on the 12Z GFS @ 51 hours.

The 12Z ECMWF will be interesting because between yesterday's 12Z and todays 00Z runs, it actually closed off another isobar (shown in intervals of five) to where the lowest closed isobar depicted is 925 mb, which can be seen below @ 60 hours.

OPC has the low hitting a max of 924 mb, which is in very good agreement with the past several runs.

What it actually does bottom out to should be within 48 hours now, so we won't have to wait too long. The disturbance that will eventually develop the bomb can actually be seen on the US water vapor loop right now, kicking just offshore the Delmarva Peninsula.
I often find it difficult that such a benign looking feature like this can become such a destructive force, but such is the beauty of meteorology.
[link to www.wunderground.com]
pinkpixiexx
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01/24/2013 02:47 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
wow
Once again nice thread, thankshf
 Quoting: King_RA


this is a big bomb... i can't imagine what a monster like this could do here... hiding
 Quoting: Luisport


In UK here.....hiding
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace"

"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."

“Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.”
Luisport (OP)

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01/24/2013 03:05 PM

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Re: The storms continue to UK!!!
wow
Once again nice thread, thankshf
 Quoting: King_RA


this is a big bomb... i can't imagine what a monster like this could do here... hiding
 Quoting: Luisport


In UK here.....hiding
 Quoting: pinkpixiexx


Gezzzzzz i will try go give you all the info i get!