989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INCREASING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA IN A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE TIME FRAME FOR THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS FROM 6
PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS...THE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST FROM 9 PM TO 4 AM.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. THE CLASH OF THESE TWO AIR MASSES WILL RESULT IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY... WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 30S ON FRIDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SITUATION.

$$

MY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...WRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 292015Z - 292215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL
OK...IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST OVER ERN OK AND
WRN AR BUT FEW HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR
REMAINS INTENSE...AND SLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA AS POCKETS OF HEATING ARE
OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMIZED ACROSS ERN OK AND AR...AND RADAR DOES SHOW A
FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER ERN OK WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A DAMAGING
WIND OR TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING MORE
STORMS...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS MAY EXIST ALONG THE LINE.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/29/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32439403 32459684 34439659 35379572 35359361 32439403

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1152 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WILL OCCUR. EVEN HIGHER GUSTS OVER 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND STORMS
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

TREE LIMBS WILL LIKELY BE DOWNED AND LOOSE OBJECTS SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND. ENTIRE TREES MAY BE BLOWN DOWN
AND POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL CREATE
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

SevereStudios‏@severestudios

@WXtremeChaser got some good pictures of wind damage in western OK this morning: [link to wxtremechaseteam.blogspot.pt]

Last Edited by Luisport on 01/29/2013 03:36 PM

In Illinois...been 60+ degrees the last 2 days...windows open, no coat needed..muggy, foggy,
I can always tell these storms are coming because I have pressure pushing down on my skull/severe headaches/dizzy/nauseous feelings for a couple days before they hit and until they are all played out..

sometimes, it just takes the rain to release the pressure, but not always..this one is going to be a good one..even has my bones aching...(the ones that I broke, in the past)

I remember the storm of 78...before my parents had a wood stove..lived in country(they are still at same place) and dad had to put chains on truck to get us to town to stay with friends...it was not just snow, but ICE
power went out...extremely cold...ice, snow..power lines down..Looking back, it reminds me of Narnia..beautiful..

I was 8 years old and will never forget that..
Icicles everywhere, tree limbs breaking from the weight of the ice..

The next year, dad had a wood stove put in(they still have same one, it was actually featured in Good Housekeeping..not sure how they came across our stove, but, anyway)

I remember Dad even had to put chains on the tractor(he did not have one with a cab at that time..poor man..) and put out extra hay for cattle as we were not sure how long it would last..he did not lose any, bless his heart. ;)...<<point to this,DON'T forget your animals..

Be safe, all..Better to be prepared and not need, than to need and not be prepared..:)



ETA>>>those who have gas furnaces, remember, in severe cold weather, the line will freeze and you will not have any heat...happened to me, once..I was naive and shocked to learn that a gas line could freeze...lol live and learn..
so make sure you have a plan if this happens to you.

Last Edited by Abi ~ on 01/29/2013 03:47 PM

SevereStudios&#8207;@severestudios

RT @WXtremeChaser: One more damage shot frm morning storm. Hay bale slammed into shed [link to twitter.com]

Love that story!!



For anyone who wants it... some good tips on preparing can be found here

Thread: Dr. Acula and Friends: Emergency Winter Prep Tips!!! (411)

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/29/2013 03:54 PM

It looks like the threat for severe tornadoes may be collapsing.

STP has diminished ahead of the squall line, most likely do to limited ascent. Air is not very unstable.

Helicity is still moderate and shear high.

So, there is a chance for some small F1 or F2 tornadoes, but IMHO F3 or higher is unlikely.

Last Edited by DoorBert on 01/29/2013 03:58 PM

Weather radio just went off with a high wind warning for those of us in the NC mountains. Says they think it will start at daybreak until midnight coming from SSE at 35 with gust up to 70. Stay safe!

Thank God! Still it seams there are one or two in the grownd!

Very intense low-level rotation on this cell. It is likely either a.) producing a tornado or b.) in the process of forming one. [link to img820.imageshack.us]

Got a rotation to NE of Belfonte, OK. [link to i.imgur.com]

Statement as of 3:34 PM EST on January 29, 2013

... Wind Advisory in effect from 5 am to 9 PM EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Morristown has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 5 am to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* Event... as a cold front approaches... south winds will increase
tonight and early Wednesday to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to near 40
mph. When showers and storms move into the area... near the
front... local wind gusts over 50 mph are possible. Then... after
the front passes... winds will shift to the west... and continue
strong and gusty as colder air pushes into the region.

* Timing... south winds will increase tonight. The front is expected
to pass during the day on Wednesday... with the gusty west winds
continuing through the rest of the afternoon.

* Impacts... loose objects could be blown around... vehicles will
be buffeted by strong cross winds... and a few shallow-rooted
trees could be uprooted.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph and/or gusts of
40 to 57 mph are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can
make driving difficult... especially for high profile vehicles...
so use caution when driving.

I snagged a screen shot of it... highlighted it... and added an arrow pointing to it

[link to postimage.org]

GRLevel3 is showing 100-120 knots on that Belmonte storm.