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989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb

 
Dr. AculaModerator
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01/28/2013 04:18 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Keeping my eye out

thanks for the heads up!
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
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01/28/2013 04:25 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
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01/28/2013 04:34 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


Pass??? This will start tomorrow and last untill 31 January!
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01/28/2013 04:37 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
hmmm 40-50-60 mph straight line winds..hitting powerlines heavy with ice...people might be in the dark for awhile when this hits.
Luisport (OP)

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01/28/2013 04:41 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


Pass??? This will start tomorrow and last untill 31 January!
 Quoting: Luisport


Some models, such as the HRW, are suggesting the line will actually intensify overnight as it progresses eastward. You can see this in the images below. 00Z January 30 (6:00 p.m. CDT January 29): [link to img442.imageshack.us] 06Z (12:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to imageshack.us] 12Z (6:00 a.m. CDT) January 30: [link to img689.imageshack.us] This model may be downplaying the start of the squall line, just a note.
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01/28/2013 04:44 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. IN
ADDITION...VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
AND THE COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW COULD
RESULT IN FLOODING. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (INDFFAIWX) FOR
MORE DETAILS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


learn to read tard
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
Luisport (OP)

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01/28/2013 04:51 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
...STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY WARM MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND THIS WARMTH
WILL HELP PROVIDE FUEL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY
LEAD TO SOME DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND REACH THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
Luisport (OP)

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


learn to read tard
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


tounge
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
I am NOT looking forward to this years weather!

I am we installed a storm shelter last year


[link to img689.imageshack.us] <---- That doesnt look pleasin to me eye


and its too close to me for burying my head in the sand
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
Luisport (OP)

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01/28/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
[link to i.imgur.com]
Dr. AculaModerator
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
my local news just confirmed what you been saying Luisport.

10am (give or take) tomorrow that squall is coming through Kentucky

Karma pinned this

Last Edited by Dr. Acula on 01/28/2013 05:14 PM
"My religious belief teaches me to feel as safe in battle as in bed. God has fixed the time for my death. I do not concern myself about that, but to be always ready, no matter when it may overtake me. ... That is the way all men should live, and then all would be equally brave." - General Thomas Jonathan "Stonewall" Jackson
TheMacaroni

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01/28/2013 05:16 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Very interesting very interesting [link to www.weather.com]
Luisport (OP)

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01/28/2013 05:21 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
my local news just confirmed what you been saying Luisport.

10am (give or take) tomorrow that squall is coming through Kentucky

Karma pinned this
 Quoting: Dr. Acula


hf Thank's a lot!!!
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01/28/2013 05:23 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


here come the toradoes!
warm air+cold air= f5's
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2013 05:26 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


here come the toradoes!
warm air+cold air= f5's
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18380705


ha. toradoes.TORNATO. tomatoes. bring em in...
Luisport (OP)

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01/28/2013 05:27 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


here come the toradoes!
warm air+cold air= f5's
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 18380705


72 in Kansas to 37 in Nebraska.... wow! [link to i.imwx.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/28/2013 05:28 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
so .. tornadoes in january?!

craaaaazzzzzzzzyyyyyyyyyyyy

hiding
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01/28/2013 05:33 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Joe Bastardi&#8207;@BigJoeBastardi

Northern Missouri: Temps near 80 this afternoon, near 10 Thur am. Yikes!
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
i'm in southwest Indiana. we're under a flood watch, but nothing is being said at this time about wind. predictions are 3 inches of rain.
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01/28/2013 05:37 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
This storm has passed and was an epic fail got a tiny bit of rain. Today is 65 degrees. Like a summer day here in Chicago.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28852902


and you're a fucking idiot..
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Tks so much for all the weather info! I'm not sure what all the info means when it comes to Ohio..I live in Bradford, Ohio, Northwest of Dayton Ohio..close to the Indiana border..Do you know if we will get a bad snow? Tks in advance and for keeping everyone on alert!wtfwtf5awtf
Uncle Alyosha

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01/28/2013 05:40 PM
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Joe Bastardi&#8207;@BigJoeBastardi

Northern Missouri: Temps near 80 this afternoon, near 10 Thur am. Yikes!
 Quoting: Luisport


Please. I'm busy sun-tanning at the moment in Missouri...
Best Wishes,
Uncle Alyosha

And here's a GLP-appropriate Bible verse (atheists may read, too):

God chose what is foolish in the world to shame the wise, God chose what is weak in the world to shame the strong.

- 1 Corinthians 1:27
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
however, Wednesday has a forecast high of 59. Wed. night, windchill of 16 dropping to 3 by Thursday night.
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01/28/2013 05:42 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Jim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

Classic darkness by 3pm on a snowy New England Day MT @EBrill72: just took the picture @ Plymouth, New Hampshire [link to twitter.com] #NHwx

3 hJim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

This air ahead of pending outbreak RT @weatherchannel: 73º in Topeka, KS, 1º shy of tying ALL-TIME January high! [link to wxch.nl] #kswx

5 hJim Cantore&#8207;@JimCantore

This 45% hashed area is now MODERATE risk from SPC. Tornadoes are possible here: [link to www.spc.noaa.gov] … #severe #tornado
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
[link to hp6.wright-weather.com]
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01/28/2013 05:48 PM

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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Here is the latest position of the jet stream over the US for today.........No surprise that things will go boom when this combined with the frontal passage begins moving into the mid-west tomorrow into the warm air flowing up from the Gulf......Sort of a "mini" taste of what may come down the road when we get to our normal Spring severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Not the type of set-up that we usually see in late January (with temps this warm flowing out of the Gulf). [link to squall.sfsu.edu]
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
We just had a record high day over 70 in Kansas:


Great post

hf
But this shall be the covenant that I will make with the house of Israel; After those days, saith Yahweh, I will put my law in their inward parts, and write it in their hearts; and will be their Elohim, and they shall be my people.
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
I live in NW Indiana and can tell you what, it's got VERY cold during the course of the day. Really dropped fast.
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Re: 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Monday, January 28, 2013Nasty Day Tomorrow as Significant Severe Weather Threatens
By Andrew at 4:26 PM
**I am declaring a Storm Action Day tomorrow, meaning that most resources will be devoted to analyzing and tracking the severe weather situation.**

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather for tomorrow, January 29th, in the face of a possibly significant severe weather threat across the outlined area.

The NAM model is shown above with the forecast for 500mb vorticity values. The term 'vorticity' defines a spinning motion in the air. This spinning motion is synoptic, or on a large scale, so it is not a producer of tornadoes. High areas of vorticity indicate low pressure is in the area, and this is how we find low pressure systems. Looking at the forecast above, which is valid for the late evening hours of January 29th, shows our storm system pressing down into Texas and Oklahoma, depicted by the deep bending of the contour lines. Something I want you to look at is how these vorticity areas are directed. For instance, if you look closely, you will see that the base of the storm system in Texas has the highest vorticity areas tilting a little towards the Southeast (if you cannot see it, I marked it in). This is a classic example of the infamous negatively-tilted storm system. The infamy of it is that, in a negatively-tilted storm system, cold air aloft is encouraged to flow over the storm system. You weather enthusiasts know that thunderstorms rise and strengthen faster in cold air aloft, so negatively-tilted storms have a tendency to produce stronger thunderstorms than their positively-tilted storm counterparts (highest vorticity values point towards the southwest).

An analysis of the upper air for roughly the same timeframe as the image above reveals a very strained jet stream. You are viewing the forecasted wind speeds for the jet stream, which can also help us identify areas of high and low pressure. If we look near the Front Range of Colorado, we see an empty space pushing down. That is our low pressure system. Again, we are seeing higher wind speeds pointing towards the southeast than winds pointing to the southwest at the base of this empty space, affirming my suspicions of a negatively-tilted storm system. The winds on this forecast are projected to max out above 150 knots in central Texas in this forecast, and winds between 130 and 150 knots in the Central Plains. These unusually high wind values are more typical of spring! Nonetheless, the strength of these upper level winds shows that any storms that do develop will have a strong backing, at least in the jet stream.

Now we get into the forecasted simulated reflectivity, which is a forecast of what the radar could show in the future. This short range model is valid for the late morning hours of January 29th. Already, we can see some moderate rain and thunderstorms surfacing in eastern Oklahoma, and this is where I anticipate the show to start. Strong upper level winds will support eventual strengthening of these storms. However, in these late morning hours, I do not expect any big severe weather threat other than some gusty winds and hail. It's about what happens later in the day that concerns me.

We move now to the afternoon of January 29th. We now see that our storm system has blossomed, with heavy showers and elevated convection (thunderstorms that are stronger than normal, but not yet severe) ongoing in much of the eastern Plains into the Midwest. Some severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the leading edge of this squall line formation. Going by this graphic, I would expect the strongest storms to be in Arkansas and Missouri at this point, with weaker (but still heavy) storms in the Midwest.

This image, valid for the early morning hours of January 30th, shows just how big this severe weather event could be. Should this short range model's forecast verify, we could see storms stretching from border to border- Canada to Mexico (if you count the Gulf of Mexico as a border, or if you use latitudes from northwest Mexico)! Taking a look at this image, definite strengthening has occurred in this severe weather event, with very heavy convection now plaguing the Midwest and Great Lakes. We could even see some fairly intense convection happening over Michigan. Regardless, these storms could continue through the night, if the nocturnal lower level jet stream strengthens overnight. For those unfamiliar with the term, the lower level jet stream is just like the jet stream, except weaker and located lower in the atmosphere. It is nocturnal.

I think the maps above displayed my view on the situation well, and I see no need to make a map at this moment. I do suggest, however, that all those in the Plains and southern Midwest prepare for a rough ride tomorrow, especially in the evening/overnight hours.

For you storm chasers, here's my Chase Spot: Jonesboro, AR to Jackson, TN in the evening, Memphis, TN and east after dark.

Andrew [link to theweathercentre.blogspot.de]

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