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Message Subject 989 mb Explosively Developing Low over Chicago early Wed!!! TWO DEATHS CONFIRMED!!!! Compared with cleveland superbomb
Poster Handle Luisport
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THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH UPPER 70S LIKELY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORM OF A QLCS/SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASING.


NOW THAT WE ARE WITHIN TWO DAYS OF THE UPCOMING SEVERE THREAT...WE
CAN START LOOKING AT A FEW MORE DETAILS IN RELATION TO THE POSSIBLE
MODES OF CONVECTION. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HODOGRAPHS...AND SEVERE PARAMETERS...THE VERY POWERFUL
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KNOTS IS STILL PRESENT. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KNOTS STILL EXISTS...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 60 KNOTS ARE BEING ADVERTISED AS THE QLCS/SQUALL LINE MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE 9 TO 12Z TIME FRAME
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS WE KNOW FROM PREVIOUS RESEARCH AND
STUDIES...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN ALL OUT SUPERCELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT AS OPPOSED TO MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE DERECHO TYPE SEVERE
EVENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN YOU ARE LOOKING AT SHEAR
VALUES THAT ARE AS HIGH AS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED.

BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMED SINCE 2005...0-1KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY OVER 40 KNOTS HAVE NOT PRODUCED
TORNADOES IN QLCS TYPE EVENTS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN OUR CWA. WITH
40-50 KNOTS OF 0-1KM BULK SHEAR BEING INDICATED SO FAR BY THE SUITE
OF GUIDANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...IT WOULD BE TOO MUCH
SHEAR FOR ANY ROTATION TO REALLY GET GOING. HOWEVER...IN A
SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...THAT 40-50 KNOTS WOULD BE SCREAMING
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. SO THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF
ENVIRONMENT WILL THE CWA BE UNDER BEFORE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
SQUALL LINE REACH WESTERN ALABAMA.

300MB ANALYSIS OF JET STRUCTURES HAVE REVEALED THAT THE MAIN JET
STREAK THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE VERY STEEP UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 150 KNOT 300MB JET STREAK IS STILL WELL
OFF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BEING A PLAYER IS STILL IN THE CARDS HOWEVER...AS THE ECMWF IS
HINTING AT A MORE SUBTLE JET MAX OF 115 KNOTS AT 300MB NEAR THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTLINE. WHERE THAT JET DEVELOPS COULD PLACE US
IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO DOUBT ABOUT IT WE WILL HAVE A VERY
JUICY AIRMASS TO WORK WITH. PWATS ARE LOOKING TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1.50 TO 1.60 AFTER 06Z ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF PW CLIMATOLOGY...SO NO PROBLEM THERE. THE LIMITING
FACTOR THAT SEEMS TO BE REALLY COMING FORWARD NOW WILL BE THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE THAT WILL BE PRESENT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 65 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WITH THESE NUMBERS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS TO BREAK A
CAPPING INVERSION JUST ALOFT FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT. THE CAP
DOES NOT BECOME BROKEN UNTIL THE MAJOR FORCING ARRIVES WITH THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SQUALL LINE. IF WE WERE ABLE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WE COULD HAVE A
PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS WITH SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
LINE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WATCHING THE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS HOUR BY HOUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT...ESPECIALLY IF MODELS HAPPEN TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING INSTABILITIES.

SO...WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR THE PRIMARY
MODE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A SQUALL LINE/QLCS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ACROSS THE CWA BEGINNING
FROM 09 TO 12Z NORTHWEST AND WEST...AND ENDING FROM 21Z TO 23Z IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THE SEVERE TIMING IS BASED OFF A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF...NAM...AND THE CMC WITH THE GFS STILL BEING ABOUT 3-4 HOURS
QUICKER. EVEN THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH...WE STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT THE PRESENCE OF QLCS MESOVORTICES THAT MAY FORM
ALONG THE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH REAR INFLOW JETS. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WELL BASED ON THE
INSTABILITIES THAT ARE ABLE TO BE REALIZED. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
LEFT THE TORNADO MENTIONING IN THE HWO. GRADIENT WINDS ALONE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING
TREES DOWN BY THEMSELVES BEFORE ANY STORMS ARRIVE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS TO 50MPH POSSIBLE.
 
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